Capitals/Penguins: Match-up Overview
by David M. Getz on May 1, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
86 comments
Offense - Ovechkin. Crosby. Semin. Malkin. Backstrom. Guerin. Green. Gonchar. The names tell the story. Both these teams have high end talent; both teams have depth; both teams can score. Both teams are absolutely loaded.
Defense - Both the Capitals and Penguins have solid defensive corps that often get less credit than they're due because they aren't at the same level as the team's offenses. However, both have some question marks. For the Capitals it's whether depth players like John Erskine and Milan Jurcina can continue their impressive play against a much more potent offense. For the Penguins it's whether the defense corps can raise its level of play against multiple games against a strong opponent.
Goaltending - If Simeon Varlamov plays like he did against the Rangers it's going ot be very difficult for Marc-Andre Fleury, talented as he is, to match him. That said, the odds that Varlamov isn't as good as he was against New York - and isn't as good as Fleury - is pretty high.
Powerplay - The Penguins have plenty of firepower and have keep clicking at a pretty high rate since Bylsma took over, but even under the new coach the Pens haven't come close to matching the Capitals in terms of effectiveness with the extra man.
Penalty Kill - Sure, the Caps penalty killers look awful good for most of the series against the Rangers, but the Rangers have one of the worst powerplay units in the NHL, so we're not ready to bump it up beyond the three checks we gave it leading into the series against the Rangers. The Penguins' penalty kill, like the Capitals', got better as the season went on and may be hitting its peak right about now.
Coaching - There's no question that the way the Penguins have played under Dan Bylsma has been impressive, but it's difficult to separate the coaching from the talent of the players and the personnel additions. This series with the Capitals will in all likelihood be the toughest challenge the team has faced this season, and it remains to be seen how Bylsma will respond against significant adversity.
Intangibles - The Penguins mix of youth and experience and of different playing styles would give them the edge here, but the Capitals have home ice advantage and in what's expected to be a long series between the rivals, there's a very good chance that could come in to play.
As much as I'd like to say that Ovechkin's going to take over this series, that Simeon Varlamov is without a doubt the new Cam Ward and will propel to team to victory, or that the racous Verizon Center crowd will intimidate the Penguins, I can't. The series is an evenly matched and as intruiging a matchup as all the pundits are claiming and odds are that something unpredictable - a great series from a role player, an unstoppable goalie, an injury, or even a lucky bounce - will be what decides who goes on the Eastern Conference Finals.
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So, you’re saying we’re evenly matched!
by DrinkingPartner on May 1, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Imagine that.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on May 1, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus. I never realized how dependent I was on sbnation until they were experiencing technical difficulties. Shit.
by ninefttall on May 1, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I BELIEVE
(you knew I was going to say that)
by vt caps fan on May 1, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You’re just saying that to get reps now…
by snowburnt on May 1, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
will be more effective on game day when people are bunkered down!
by Natty Bumppo on May 1, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha I’m not sure who did it first, you or me but either way we need to keep it going!
by Sombrero Guy on May 1, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great overview. Must say I agree on pretty much every point.
With everything being so equal I’m going to go with the team I feel is mentally tougher. I’m going to say Caps in 7. Caps pull out another nail biter at the Phone Booth to move on.
by CP2Devil on May 1, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i’m hoping that home ice is much more of an advantage in this series than the last series. since i’m not as worried about the players tightening up knowing the backstory (at least not the stars), the verizon crowd could really come into play egging on the good guys.
by Natty Bumppo on May 1, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed that VC will be a lot more helpful in this series. Also, I am grateful for an opponent that will allow the Caps their favored style of play, and there is a lot less less pressure on the Caps than in the 1st round.
by CaliCapsFan on May 1, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL Vickster. I’m well past that point of nails. That was like Game 4 against the Rags. I literally had dreams about the coming series last night. When Caps are in my subconscious I think I’ve either reached a new high or low depending one’s perspective.
by CP2Devil on May 1, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One question and this is not meant as a flame.
Why do you feel that the Caps are mentally tougher? I would argue the Pens, having been to the finals the year before, are a mentally tougher.
I would just like to hear your rationale.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*Are a mentally tougher team*
sorry can’t let that go
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it could have to do with hating the Pens, wanting to beat Crosby, having home ice, etc.
And, honestly, as difficult a win as it was, making it through the 1st round I think will be a great boon to their attitudes. I don’t think they intend to let this chance slip away like they almost did against the Rags.
The Caps have something to prove, and they can be very dangerous when in that mindset.
by DrinkingPartner on May 1, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No worries. I understood what you meant in your first reply and your question is certainly legitimate.
I consider the Caps mentally tougher for a number of reasons to the sheer number of injuries and players in and out of the lineup this season and how they performed with all of those injuries. I think a lot of other teams would have folded.
In addition, the team has shown time and time again that they have the ability to come back from deficits within games and obviously within a series. They plain just don’t panic. They also don’t get rattled by other teams antics. There is an indescribable calm they appear to have. IT drives me nuts sometimes because on occasion it appears to breed a side effect of overconfidence.
I’m not saying the Pens are mentally weak or anything. Since the new coach arrived they have certainly blossomed. I just question when the going gets truly tough will they become rattled. Sid and MAF seem to have gotten rattled in the past. If Pens go down 2-0 in the series for example, do you know for sure how they will react? I’m confident I know how the Caps would.
Your comment about last year’s Pens team does hold some weight with me, but not as much as experience within this particular season. I think that experience is helpful in terms of understanding what is necessary to win series, but from a mental toughness and leadership standpoint I wonder if losing who they did negates some of this. Maybe, maybe not.
In the end, mental toughness is hard to quantify. I’m sure Pens fans could come up with a compelling argument the other way.
by CP2Devil on May 1, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also feel that the mental toughness comes from playing together all year and knowing how everyone reacts to each other. The Pens team that was in the finals last year has quite a few differences this year and they might not have the strong bond to rely on each other quite yet with the recent additions and changes from last year.
by i12swim on May 1, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can’t speak for everyone, but coming back from 3-1 takes testicular fortatude. At what point do you count the caps out of a series at this point?
by d_fens_65 on May 1, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DMG, as always, your analysis is solid and as unbiased as possible. I look forward to your posts and Japer’s Rink in general, since 99% of the coverage of this series has been Ovie vs. Crosby nonsense. I feel bad that these guys have to give interview after interview on their “rivalry.”
I am almost incapacitated at work because I cannot stop thinking about this series. Just a little more than 24 hours to go, I think I can hold on….
by CaliCapsFan on May 1, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This series is going to be FUN in my office! I just discovered that the new guy on the firewall team is a rabid Pens fan and was planning on bringing me Penguins gear to wear to the game tomorrow.
Sportslogos.com has an awesome printable copy of the Caps’ weagle available for free download. I think I’ll quietly pin a weagle to his wall when the Caps win, and if and when they take the series I’ll decorate his entire cube.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on May 1, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think you’re after sportslogos.net.
by Natty Bumppo on May 1, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks :)
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on May 1, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just be careful — payback can be a bitch…
by Gould Old Days on May 1, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Pens are a better matchup for us than the Rags
Primary Reason: the Rags play that “compact into a shot-blocking ball around an elite goaltender” style that is our antidote. The Pens play more open, and once teams start going back and forth and the game opens up, we have the advantage.
The Rags also have THE best PK unit, against which we still hit at 18%, without a healthy Mike Green.
As long as power play ops are equal, we have the edge there, and we have it in 5 on 5 in my opinion. We shall see.
The keyboard is mightier.
by breed16 on May 1, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree totally
The Caps like to “run n gun”, and the Pens will allow them to play their style. The Rangers are a defensively minded team that blocks a lot of shots, is super gritty, and Lundquist is in the top tier of NHL goalies (a place in which MAF is not). MAF still let in 16 Flyers goals. He’s not Luongo. The Rangers were a tough matchup because they like to slow it down, and grind the game out. This threw the Caps offensive a curve ball in the first couple games. The Caps don’t need great goaltending, a team like the Caps needs only “osGOOD” (consistent), which Varly has provided.
by The Admiral on May 1, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Caps really had to adjust to the style the Rangers play, reminded me of the Flyers series last year. They don’t need to adjust to the pens style and should get off to good first period starts…unlike with the Rangers. They played inspired verse the Pens and other big named teams this year (BOS/DET), hopefully that trend continues. I think the deciding factor will be if Varmalov keeps giving up those juicy rebounds, which are going to hurt much more against the Pens.
by liger99 on May 1, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hard to argue with anything written here
by Sombrero Guy on May 1, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And yet people will because it’s the Internet. :)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 1, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your wrong people don’t argue on teh interwebs!!!!1
by MetalCap on May 1, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would people argue on the internet when there’s all that porn?
by FuManChewbacca on May 1, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only argument I have scares me – If we match up this evenly with the Penguins, neither team is going to beat the Bruins, because they would kill the Penguins, and by earlier logic, us.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on May 1, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a good thing logic doesn’t work in sports or there would be no such thing as an upset :-)
by snowburnt on May 4, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I look forward to your posts and Japer’s Rink in general, since 99% of the coverage of this series has been Ovie vs. Crosby nonsense. I feel bad that these guys have to give interview after interview on their "rivalry."
Here Here
You’d think this was a heavyweight boxing match. Some other guys on each team that aren’t exactly slouches. Oh well, can’t expect expert analysis from the majority of MSM folks since most of them know squat about hockey.
by CP2Devil on May 1, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
odds are that something unpredictable – a great series from a role player, a, unstoppable goalie, an injury, or even a lucky bounce – will be what decides who goes on the Eastern Conference Finals.
Concur with this.
The Caps luck is running pretty hot right now – see, e.g., the Callahan shot off the post in Game 3, the Semin knuckleball into the net in Game 7 – so maybe they’ll catch a few breaks in this series.
by fat_daddyo on May 1, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but their luck was running the other way for much of the series. LOTS of posts and crossbars, deflection of erskine that was goign 10 feet wide but ended up in the net, Drury’s knuckle goal etc.
by Sombrero Guy on May 1, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, “luck” can win or lose a game, but it tends to balance out over a series.
by Sombrero Guy on May 1, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goaltending edge: Pens
1) DMG: can’t say based upon the Rangers series that the goaltending is even. Varmalov made the saves he was called upon to make; Some impressive, however the Rangers are by and large an offensively challenged bunch. The Penguins, not so much
2) M-A Fleury has come into his own the last 2 seasons, playoffs especially. Finally realizing the potential that caused his first overall choice in 2003. He carried his squad to a Finals appearance.
3) It remains to be seen how ‘Varly’ will do when faced with a team that can throw multiple high octane forward lines at him. he may in fact pass this test with flying colours and prematurely become the goalie the caps thought they picked up 2 years ago. However as of now, M-A Fleury is a more known quantity
I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else
by Fauxrumors on May 1, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree, for the most part. Based on experience, MAF has to have a slight edge in goal. I mean, it’s not like he’s Marty Biron or anything.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 1, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Purely out of curiosity, how did Theo play against the Pens?
by CaliCapsFan on May 1, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Start Theo! Varly’s due to get lit up! Maybe I should write a FanPost…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 1, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder how much rope he does have.
I wouldn’t be shocked if a bad game 1 turns him to the pine.
by Chimaera on May 1, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will continue to rec this every time you do it.
by Scott in Shaw on May 1, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don’t know, seems like trolling to me.
by Natty Bumppo on May 1, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it possible to troll your own site?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 1, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…which I also rec’d
I guess I just like meta-trolling
by Scott in Shaw on May 1, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure it’s the goalie that matters against the Caps as much as the defense. Caps have beaten up on Luongo, Brodeur, Thomas and Lundquist this year. The Caps score when they dictate the pace and get shots close in. They can lose to any goalie – including Antero Nittymaki – when all their shots are long and from the outside. They’ve beaten Pitt this year because they beat up on their defense, not because MAF was playing badly.
by katzistan on May 1, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of goalies, does anyone know who will be in net for Chicago in game 2?
by CaliCapsFan on May 1, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Khabby. The Hawks got beat up because they were on the PK for what seemed like the first 2 periods.
by The Admiral on May 1, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
14 min worth of penalties for a team that does not take a lot of ’em
by The Admiral on May 1, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was sad to see Vancouver win the game that way. I felt bad for Khabby because it looked like, guy crashing into him or not, that goal was scored. Oh well.
by DrinkingPartner on May 1, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll admit that if I could take either goalie for just this one series, I’d pick Fleury. But what I expect is for Fleury to be very good, but not spectacular, so four checks. Varlamov I could see doing just about anything – stealing the series, getting yanked after two games, being average which, given the respective likelihood of each, averaged out to four checks. But it is in imperfect, inexact scale.
by David M. Getz on May 1, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imperfect and inexact? What the eff is this, art? I thought you were a numbers guy…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 1, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I vaguely recall that Varlamov’s play improved over the course of the RSL playoffs.
by CaliCapsFan on May 1, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
grudgingly watching the series.
evenly matched, except the goaltender uncertainty principle, but then again you can never be certain. brodeur in jersey
by kolparty on May 1, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In my heart, I believe the teams are this even, but in my head, I’m not sure I do.
I know most Caps fans agree with me when I say I never feel 100% certain of a teams performance against the Penguins, no matter what the team SHOULD do. The Caps should be an even match, but I don’t know.
by Chimaera on May 1, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In situations like this I feel like my best bet is to be cautiously pessimistic.
by snowburnt on May 1, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that as Caps fans, we can’t take anything for granted against the Pens.
Hopefully the players can get that money off the fan’s backs as they did with the round one win.
by Vickster on May 1, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Underdogs?
1) From reading various non partisan writers, most seem to give the edge to the Pens here despite the caps having home ice.
2) A non scientific pole on Mirtle’s site: http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/4/30/860416/who-will-win-the-cup
seems to show most fans think this as well; With the Pens recieving the second highest total (of the remaining teams) of who will win the Cup, while the Caps were a distant 5th.
Perhaps being the perceived underdog may be a good thing?
I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else
by Fauxrumors on May 1, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it is, Fauxrumors. The Caps play their best hockey when it’s them against the world and when they’re out to prove everyone wrong. I think this is a much more even matchup than the media is giving it credit for, and that this series is not the joke that Pens fans think it is.
I’m not convinced we’ll win, but I am convinced that anyone who thinks it’s a cakewalk for the Pens is kidding themselves.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on May 1, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. I’ve never seen such an overall cocky fanbase as the Pens’. They act as if they swept Detroit in the finals last season.
by :hsughrofl: on May 1, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be assured the Pens themselves aren’t that arrogant, and neither is their coach. This team handed them their butts three times this season and the fourth went to a shootout. I think the Pens know better than to think the Caps are a joke.
The fans, now …
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on May 1, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple things to note on Mirtle’s poll:
- His site gets a lot of traffic from Penguins fans, as he notes
- The fact that more people voted for the Penguins to win the Cup doesn’t necessarily mean more people expect the Penguins to win this series.
by David M. Getz on May 1, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A third thing to note:
- Internet polls are for Habs fans.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 1, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
One of the truer things I’ve read in the past few days.
Rec’d.
by gfcaps fan on May 1, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Caps “struggled” with New York. Pens won fairly handily against Philly. Clearly the Rags are an inferior team to Philly. Thinking beyond that makes most hockey writers head hurt.
Though the Examiner did a decent job on trying to highlight the Caps third line today.
by d_fens_65 on May 1, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most people seemed focused on the fact that the Caps lost despite their offense, that the Rags were able to score on them. They neglected the facts that the Rangers didn’t really score much, just 1.7 g/g when we put Varly in and that the Rangers are known for having one of the best defenses and one of the best goalies, that we still put up almost 3 g/g on.
by snowburnt on May 1, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
19-11 is a better goal to goals allowed ratio than 18-16, no matter how you slice the games. The series was close in games because Lundqvist had 3 good games.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on May 1, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which is exactly what I said, except simpler.
by snowburnt on May 4, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
About Varly vs MAF...
All this talk of “experience” and the Pens having an edge in goal. I’m not so sure. Didn’t Varly do exactly what we had hoped against the Rags? Yes they were offensively challenged – he had 2 shutouts! He was expected to defend well and NOT collapse under the pressure like Theo did. he performed the way he should have against the offensive stiffs in blue.
Fleury COULD have let the series get away, if not for a couple VERY timely saves. He didnt of course. But let’s face it: Philly blew a 3-0 lead – no team should be giving up a 3 goal lead EVER!!! (that means you too, Quenneville!!!)
The Pens were very lucky to emerge from that series, IMO.
by S h a g g y on May 1, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you about the 3-0 comeback. That series absolutely should have gone to7 games.
The Flyers also had their best all around player playing with two bum shoulders, which does not help.
I am just hoping the Caps team that showed up against Boston, New Jersey, Detroit and the Penguins shows up, and not the team that took the ice for Game 7 the other day.
by fat_daddyo on May 1, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think with all the firepower that both teams have, it may come down to who leads after the 1st period that determines who wins.
To compile stats:
Regular Season
When Pens leads after 1st period, they are 19-6-4.
When Caps leads after 1st period, they are 30-3-3.
Not a whole lot of difference between the two….
Here’s what I think is more telling….
Playoffs
When Pens leads after 1st period, they are 1-0.
When Caps leads after 1st period, they are 3-0.
While both teams have won all their games when leading after the 1st period, the Caps have gotten ahead earlier more often that the Pens. While the Pens have worked hard to win their games, the Caps jump out early and stay ahead – perhaps because they can play looser and more aggressive?
Maybe that’s the norm for most teams — getting ahead early means a better chance of winning. Or maybe I’m just hoping.
by RedskinFan4Life on May 1, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Playoffs
When Pens leads after 1st period, they are 1-0.
When Caps leads after 1st period, they are 3-0.
Argh, all the “stats” on this series flying around and it hasn’t even started yet.
The Pens stat means they were tied or behind after the 1st for the majority of their wins.
I’d think that’s a stronger stat in general than winning when you’re already winning.
But then that may just be the swine flu talking
by Icebat on May 1, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because they have to open it up to try to score against our suddenly impressive D, and we take advantage.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Argh, all the "stats" on this series flying around and it hasn’t even started yet.
I’m with ya, man. What is it now - a little over 16 hours away from now?? I wanna go to sleep now and not wake up until 12:58 - you know? Enough time to pee and get a drink before the faceoff….
Problem is - I probably wouldn’t be able to sleep!
by RedskinFan4Life on May 1, 2009 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post
Have one minor disagreement, but I’m pretty wasted right now (nerves), so I’ll write something more later, but to boil it down:
Penalty kill is a push. Caps put up 89% regular+postseason combined with Varly in net. Small sample size, so grain of salt, but that’s why I say it’s a push. Over the course of the season/postseason, the Caps and Pens are pretty much equal statistically.
Varly is the independent variable for the Caps – totally agree with your statement that he can go any which way. Personally, based on what we know of his performance last year and this year, I don’t think he’s suddenly going to flake out. Maybe if I look in the mirror and say “Cam Ward” five times, he’ll show up and lead us to the promised land. :)
The Pens’ third line/Jordan Staal is their independent variable. I tend to think the top lines will largely off-set, (with possibly a slight advantage to the Caps), so this line will be key. If they can shut down, or heaven forbid, outscore one of the Caps’ top lines, the Pens likely take this series.
One larger point: people keep pointing out how “this Pens team isn’t the one that sucked during the first half of the regular season.” At the same time, people keep pointing out how bad the Rangers were, based in part on their performance during the regular season.
Look, both teams fired their coach, both teams re-tooled at the trade deadline. If anything, the Rangers made BIGGER moves than the Pens. I’ll grant you that the Rangers were an inept offensive team in the series with the Caps, but I’m not willing to concede that the Rags were somehow devoid of offensive talent. Drury, Gomez, Antropov, Zherdev, Naslund, Avery, Callahan, Dubinsky, Redden, Mara, Morris and Roszival have all put up decent offensive numbers before. The Rags’ offense performed much better after they ditched Renney and his defense-first system, and yet nobody mentioned this when the Rags couldn’t dent Varly. On the flip side, suddenly Gonchar gets healthy, they trade for a couple wingers and call up a coach from the AHL and the Pens are world-beaters after being decidedly mediocre for much of the year.
I’m not buying it.
I think we’re all going overboard in giving the Pens the benefit of the doubt. Their PP put up 12.5% against the Flyers. Even Hooks said they were terrible. Fleury is a very talented goaltender who has struggled with his consistency. Varly may not be the second coming of Roy (or even Ward), but he doesn’t have to be. He just has to stop the first shot and let his defense do the rest.
Caps in 6.
(Sorry for any errors. 8-9 beers will do that to you.)
by D'ohboy on May 1, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve read on espn.com and elsewhere that we need to get our PP up to speed. We made the Rangers PK look like our regular season PK, putting them at around 80%. Meanwhile Pittsburgh couldn’t even muster 15% against Philadelphia.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Penalty kill is a push. Caps put up 89% regular+postseason combined with Varly in net. Small sample size, so grain of salt, but that’s why I say it’s a push.
That was against the league’s worst powerplay unit.
by David M. Getz on May 1, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, regular season+postseason. I’m including the 6 games he played against an assortment of teams, not just the Rangers. Admittedly, the sample size is small.
Second, I’ll return to my point about the two teams’ late season transformations. I find it a little silly to give Pittsburgh all sorts of credit for the turnaround they mustered after firing Therrien, getting Gonchar back and acquiring Guerin and Kunitz, while ignoring entirely the push that the Rangers made after they fired Renney and acquired Morris, Antropov and Avery. If you’re going to say “this Pittsburgh team is better than the one that was out of the playoff picture in February,” then you likewise have to admit that the Rangers team we faced wasn’t as weak as the one that put up those terrible regular-season statistics.
I’m not going to argue that the Rangers PP was good after all the changes, because that’s manifestly untrue. However, their offense did improve under Tortorella. They weren’t an offensive juggernaut, but nor were they a pop-gun offense that couldn’t score on a pee-wee team. The Caps actually had to show up and play defense, and Varlamov had to make some pretty damn good saves at times.
Personally, I think that if the team we were playing were anyone other than the Penguins, and we compared the rosters and statistics, we’d all think the Caps were going to win. Not in a cake walk, to be sure, but I think they’ve got a better than even chance of winning. However, because there’s so much anguish in this fan base regarding that franchise, we may not be capable of looking past the name on the front of the jerseys to see the names on the back.
by D'ohboy on May 2, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I admit that I missed that. How? I do not now, but fair point, good sir.
by David M. Getz on May 2, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s all most definitely good. Again, excellent post. (As usual.)
LET’S GO CAPS!!!
by D'ohboy on May 2, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
72 | 48 | 14 | 10 | 106 |
|
Atlanta
|
72 | 32 | 29 | 11 | 75 |
|
Florida
|
71 | 29 | 31 | 11 | 69 |
|
Carolina
|
72 | 30 | 34 | 8 | 68 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
72 | 28 | 32 | 12 | 68 |
(updated 3.21.2010 at 10:53 PM EDT)
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