The Bylsma Effect
by David Getz on May 1, 2009 7:31 AM EDT
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PrintThe story of the 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins probably sounds awfully familiar to Capitals fans: a talented yet underachieving team, a coach who had won accolades in the past but seemed out of answers, a replacement coach from the AHL affiliate, and a resurgence to get the team into the playoffs. In case of the Capitals it was, of course, Bruce Boudreau, who would go on to take the Jack Adams award last season. For the Penguins it's been Dan Bylsma, a former NHL winger who became the youngest head coach in the NHL when he was promoted from his positions in Wilkes-Barre.
In many ways analogous to the transfer from Glen Hanlon to Boudreau, Bylsma's simplest broadest change was to encourage his players to take advantage of their significant natural skill and play an aggressive, up-tempo style, a contrast to Michel Therrien's stricter emphasis on system. The result? The team started scoring more goals, allowing fewer, and winning a heck of a lot more often.
Much like last year's Capitals, this year's Penguins have become, for all intents and purposes, a different team under their new head coach. Thus, while the Penguins' regular season numbers aren't all the impressive, they're misleading. Here's how the team has performed under each of its respective coaches this season:
| Under Therrien | Under Bylsma | Δ | Δ% | |
| Games | 57 | 25 | - | - |
| Record | 27-25-5 | 18-3-4 | - | - |
| Win Percentage | 47.4 | 72.3 | 26.5 | 57.9 |
| Points Percentage | 51.8 | 84.8 | 34.0 | 66.9 |
| GF/Game | 2.89 | 3.72 | 0.83 | 28.7 |
| GA/Game | 3.02 | 2.44 | -0.58 | -19.2 |
| Goal Diff./Game | -0.13 | 1.28 | 1.41 | - |
| Save Percentage |
.907 | .915 | .008 | 0.9 |
| Powerplay Pct. | 16.5 | 19.5 | 3.0 | 18.0 |
| Penalty Kill Pct. | 80.5 | 87.4 | 6.9 | 8.6 |
| Shots/Game | 34.0 | 32.4 | -1.6 | -4.7 |
| Shots Against/Game | 30.3 | 28.8 | -1.5 | -5.0 |
| Powerplays/Game | 4.33 | 4.52 | 0.19 | 4.3 |
| Times SH/Game | 4.14 | 4.44 | 0.30 | 7.2 |
Of course, it would be a mistake to give all the credit for the turnaround the Bylsma, who was only a part of the team's late season overhaul: Bylsma was named Pittsburgh's interm coach on February 15th, one day after Sergei Gonchar made his long-awaited return to the Penguins lineup, and the additions of wingers Chris Kunitz (February 27th) and Bill Guerin (March 4th) have helped the team as well. How much of an impact each of the four made individually is up for debate, although it doesn't really matter. In any case, there's a world of difference between the Penguins Bylsma took over and the Penguins the Capitals will face on Saturday, a difference that was somewhat on display on March 8th, the only game between the Bylsma/Gonchar/Kunitz/Guerin-led Penguins and the Capitals this season, and the only 2008-09 game between the two teams the Capitals did not win in regulation.
Come Saturday, the team the Caps meet on the ice is going to be a whole lot better than the team it's meeting on paper.
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As a Pens Fan
I can tell you that Bylsma was a liberator in many ways. As you properly noted the Pens started pushing the issue more, especially through the neutral zone. When you have talent like Crosby, Malkin, and high energy guys like Max Talbot and Tyler Kennedy this up tempo style is better suited. The Pens under Therian were just looked uninspired. Now I have no evidence other than what I was able to see watching games.
But do not underestimate the impact of Gonchar’s return. The main reason the Pen’s PP percentage is down this year is because he wasn’t on the ice for the better half of the year. When he returned they played alot better with the man advantage.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
I agree – for all the headliners up front, Gonchar is the engine of the offense on the PP in much the same way that Green is here. Without a legitimate threat at the top of the zone, it’s easy for defenses to collapse and take away space from the forwards, so when you’ve got smart players with big shots back there, it creates space.
It will be absolutely critical for the Caps forwards to be able to fire out on Gonchar and take away that shot while still being aware of the forwards on the halfboards, and that means short PK shifts and as few broken/lost sticks as possible (think about the Antropov goal in Game 1 of last series).
Good stuff, carolinaeasy. ;-)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yeah Gonchar is the underrated factor in the Pens return to respectablity this year.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
Oh, and I think I had “The Bylsma Effect” once when I ate some slightly undercooked chicken.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Isn’t that a book by Robert Ludlum?
by Gould Old Days on May 1, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have a serious question for you...
Based on the games I saw and the recent article in SI, Mike Green is a wonderful goal scorer and a guy who will jump in to lead the rush, a Gonchar on speed if you will. But I have also noticed this leaves alot of open ice if a turnover occurs. Do you guys think this can be turned into an advantage for the Pens or is there enough speed and skill to neutralize this, or will Green have to adjust to respect the Pens skill and speed? What say you?
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
I don’t see Green adjusting his game – when he overthinks it, he’s less effective. He can be high-risk/high-reward, but you’ve got to let him do what he does.
And let’s not forget that he’s a Norris finalist who had a great +/- this year.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Okay, well then to the second part
can your other players make up for any mistakes Green could make? Or do you think this is an area the Pens and their high skill guys can capitalize on?
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
Yes and yes. We’ve seen Green’s partner (Shaone Morrisonn) save his butt at times and other times, there was no saving. But there are other players who make more frequent and eggregious mistakes with the puck, so I’m not sure anyone should base their strategy on waiting for Green to screw up.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I agree you can't bank on it.
I was just poking to see if ya’ll thought this could be a potential problem for the Caps.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
I don’t think that having a Norris finalist on the blueline is a potential problem, but you never know.
It is worth noting, however, that he doesn’t appear to be at 100%, so if there’s a problem, that’s it – not his decision-making or ability in and of itself.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
This is also one reason why the shift to have Tom Poti on the PP point opposite Green (moving Ovechkin down to the half boards) has been a very good one. On a limited sample size, the team seems to give up fewer SH chances with Poti out there.
by Gould Old Days on May 1, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus Ovechkin then can roam to the slot, the crease, the circles, and below the goal line, which makes it a whole lot harder to cover him.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
It certainly could be exploited with the Pens’ team speed. Green is most effective when he is playing in a “rover” role, although we haven’t seen nearly as much of it in the playoffs due to injury/illness/general funk. The Caps’ forwards often do a good job of covering him when he jumps into the play, but given that Green is one of the team’s fastest skaters (and the fastest defenseman by a lot), when he jumps up, there is a chance to send a guy for a breakaway threat the other way.
Still, though, he comes out on the positive side of the risk/reward equation more often than not.
lol that is great
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I was hoping to find a picture of George Clinton in uniform, but found that instead
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I was expecting some ode to George Clinton and didn’t expect that. Well done.
We've got a goalie who's playing pretty good right now, while you've got one who can't get onto the ice without falling on his ass.
by Bald Pollack on May 1, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh – see above. That was my initial intent.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Reason # 46 why teh Rink is teh awesome.
We've got a goalie who's playing pretty good right now, while you've got one who can't get onto the ice without falling on his ass.
by Bald Pollack on May 1, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
When I worked on The Hill, my boss had recurring (but separate) appointments with two guys who went by Dick, last names “Love” and “Rising.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
and there’s no way the parents can be ignorant, right? i blame it on the hippies.
(no offense to any hippies in the community..)
by Natty Bumppo on May 1, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
He wasn’t joining the rush in the first series. He was essentially invisible. Plus I feel like teams are more concerned about stopping him and the forwards (Semin’s line or Ovechkin’s line frequently) rather than counterattacking and scoring.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is it that everyone seems to forget that we beat the Bylsma-led Penguins in DC to hand him his first loss? Nothing against you DMG, I’ve seen it written many places such as TSN as well.
It definitely is pretty impressive how quickly the team turned things around once the switch was made. They must have really hated Therrien…
Wasn't it an overtime loss?
I can’t remember and really a loss is a loss. I wouldn’t go on regular season stats in this case either, it was such a small sample size, and the style of play for both teams has changed with the playoffs. Things get dirtier and grittier.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
And obviously the reg. season record means very little, it’s just amusing to see so many people either mistaking the record or [conspiracy] fabricating it to make the Pens feel better [/conspiracy] (just kidding of course).
I think part of the reason it’s ignored is because it was before the trades, so yes it was after the coaching change, but before the addition of Kunitz and Guerin. Even so, an OT loss doesn’t count either, so you’d say the teams are no worse than equal.
Feb 22
…was a 5-2 win for the Caps over the Pens, and in actuality, it was closer than that. Ovie score his 43rd goal to open the scoring. The Pens answered about 6 minutes later, and a minute after that Semin responded.
In the second, early on Fedorov pushed the lead to 3-1. Gonchar cut it to 3-2 with a great screen shot that Theo didn’t see at all. But the Caps answered that 8 minutes later with two goals in 25 seconds (Morrisonn and Laich) to break the game open to 5-2 and chase Marc Andre Fleury.
In the third there was no scoring and the three stars of the game were the the Caps’ top three Russian players (Feds #1, Ovie #2, Sasha #3). It was the first (of only 3) of Blysma’s regulation losses in the regular season.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on May 1, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
because the focus on the world was the great Crosby winning the shootout in the latter match….. a game they were extremely lucky to “win” as the Caps had them reeling for the 3rd period and most of OT… had that game continued I feel the Caps would have won it the real way.
Yeah…the third was when the Caps cranked it up, and the NHL’s precious “Flightless Fowl” (to quote OFB) were overwhelmed.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
And I think we dominated the third of the SO loss, scoring twice and outplaying the Pens to tie it up, and Fleury stopped us from sweeping on multiple occasions. All with Theo in goal and Backstrom with Ovechkin.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
An 85% points-percentage
Yikes. That translates to 139 points in the regular season. These Pens are obviously the best team in the history of hockey. Haha.
In all seriousness, I do think the Pens are the legitimate favorite here. Say, if they played the series 100 times, the Pens win 60 of them? Obviously this is a seat-of-the-pants number and meant only to reflect my general assessment of the relative strength of the teams. I base this largely on that facts that 1) I like the 3rd and 4th lines of the Pens better than the Caps, while the top lines are essentially a push; 2) Fleury is a known quantity while what we get from Varly is anybody’s guess; and 3) the Caps came out flatter than a pancake in Game 7 – any other team but the Rangers and the Caps are down 4 or 5 after 2 and the game is over. That does not bode well for the future, in my experience (again, a wholly subjective and unsubstantiated analysis, but if I were good at math I’d be DMG, and a look at the signature tag below will confirm that I am not).
When I’m looking for reasons for confidence, here’s what I can come up with:
1. The Flyers just weren’t that good. Without the charity point, they’d have been an 82-point team. This leads to a couple of thoughts. A) The domination the Pens showed over the Flyers is slightly misleading; and B) the Pens might be prey to overconfidence.
2. In the vein of overconfidence, the Pens clinched in a game they ought to have lost. You can’t make a living spotting the opposition a 3-0 lead. This cuts both ways, as the same happened to the Caps, but it might be a harbinger of a white-hot team starting to cool off. In general you see it a lot in sports; a sign of a team starting to sputter is a win (or wins) when they really didn’t play that well.
But that’s about all I can come up with.
I should also note that the Pens got a bunch of points in OT and the shootout. They also got 6
wins in the shootout, more than anyone in the East except the NYR and BUF. But given the dramatic turnaround under Bylsma, I’m not sure I can find any grist for my analytical mill there.
The Pens also deserved to lose Game 2. The series could have easily been 4-2 for the Flyers and we could have our revenge.
by red army line on May 1, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Two follow-up questions:
1) Did the strength of schedule make a difference? I glanced at the Pens schedule and the second half looked easier to me, but I won’t have a chance to run any numbers on this.
2) How long did it take the Penguins to recover from the Stockholm trip? Did that make a difference?
1) Both teams played 19 games from 3/1 to the end of the regular season (Caps 10-6-3, Pens 14-2-3). Of those games, the Caps played 5 games against playoff opponents (including the Canes 3 times) and went 2-2-1, while the Pens played 9 different playoff teams and went 6-1-2.
2) They had about a week after coming back, went 4-3-2 in October and 9-2-1 in November.
For what it’s all worth.
We've got a goalie who's playing pretty good right now, while you've got one who can't get onto the ice without falling on his ass.
Being the underdog with home-ice is a beutiful thing, so long as we dont lay a 2-0 egg like we did last series.
Johnny Torts had a great point that the advantage goes to the lower-seed until game 7…There is less pressure starting on the road, because going home 1-1 is a positive…
The Pens being the favorite is fine with me…underdogs know they have to work harder to win. If they think that we struggled vs. the Rangers, and are ready to be bumped, then they obviously didnt watch the series…We only struggled to beat Henrik early, and I think the team game improved over the last 5 games compared to the first 2.
But in game 7 ya'll were as flat as Jennifer Aniston's chest
It took a good play by Federov to put you over the top. I will admit the series swung into the Caps favor over the last 5 games, but don’t be so giddy that you forget how bad ya’ll looked at home in a game 7.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
By the same token, the Caps played two of their worst periods of the season and were tied in a playoff game. Granted, play like that and they won’t be tied against Pitt, but it’s still something.
And good of you to admit that the series swung in the Caps’ favor in the span in which they won four of five games.
No one here is “so giddy.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I guess I touched a nerve.
I was just pointing out that even if the Pens appeared to be cooling off, you guys haven’t exactly lit the world on fire in your most recent trip on the ice. No digs were intended, I am trying to not to enflame just discuss JP don’t go on the defensive. I was only offering a valid point. I don’t want a flamewar breaking loose and then have someone run to the blog watchers and warn me like we are all in 3rd grade.
Lets continue our discussion with the notion that we are discussing, the games will be won on the ice, not here.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference is that the Caps came into the playoffs cold, and are starting to heat up again. The Pens came in white-hot, and played well against the Flyers, but can only go down from where they are, like the Caps did last year.
by DrinkingPartner on May 1, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Coming out flat and finishing flat are two different things. We clearly did not finish flat, and my money would’ve been on the Caps had they gone into OT.
by DrinkingPartner on May 1, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
My money was too
but the point is they weren’t clicking on all cylinders in every game through the end of that series, they had long periods of struggles. They will need to avoid this against a better opponent than the Rangers.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it could be said that the Penguins were not clicking on all cylinders before the Talbot fight in their last game too, no?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yes that is obvious and your man SA-Town pointed that out indirectly.
That is why I pointed out the Caps struggles. It was meant to show the equality that exist between the two on paper. No harm meant.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
None taken. And you’re my man too, CE.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Fistpound J.P.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on May 1, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Not completely flat… holding a team to 15 shots on goal in a Game 7 means that the defense was doing something right. And in the third period, the Caps were anything but, outshooting the Rags 13-1.
In the end, though, they don’t ask “How Pretty?”, they ask “How Many?”, and that’s especially true in the playoffs.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on May 1, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Our Pens laid some eggs against Philly too. Flower stole a game and we still lost 2. Both teams looked great and crappy at times in the first round.
Both teams are fast, talented and capable of piling up goals. They both have great offensive D-men. Both have some problems giving up turnovers but also force turnovers. Both played teams with obvious weaknesses in the first round (and were outplayed by the opponent several times). This is going to be a crazy series dominated by great plays and tough saves.
I think the factor over the course of the series will be turnovers and scoring on rushes.
Sure he can score goals, but can he cook?
by Phantaskippy on May 1, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I love how we’re the underdog. I don’t really understand it, but anything that will get our guys playing motivated hockey is fine by me.
Pittsburgh is the sexy pick because they’ve been the hotter team. Good. So were we against Philly last year.
Agreed. I’d much rather be the underdog – this team is better when it’s them against the world than when they’re the darlings of the media.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
We can’t embed .mp3s of the UnderDog theme on here, can we?
by DrinkingPartner on May 1, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
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