Who sits in back?

by Bald Pollack on Apr 6, 2009 9:32 AM EDT

So in between J.P.'s recent thoughts on Tom Poti and the gradual return to form of Brian Pothier to the Caps blueline corps, combined with additional musings of penalty +/-, led me to wondering come 10 days from now, what's a coach to do with 7 healthy defensemen?

Here's some things to consider. I throw them out there both because they interested me and because Mike Green has been playing in another stratosphere this year, I think we can agree he's off the books for this discussion, and all of the following statements don't include him in this.

Milan Jurcina and Shaone Morrisonn are neck and neck in even strength Corsi among team blueliners. While we know Jurcina's penalty +/- is abyssmal, when he's out there, his ability to get in front of the puck feels slightly underrated to me.
Morrisonn's propensity to take a penalty when the team is on the PK has been covered before, but in case you want to see it again.
Despite that, Morrisonn surprisingly draws the most penalties/60 on even strength time for guys who've been regulars for most of the year. If you widen the pool out, John Erskine bumps him off that throne.

Muddling things more is Pothier's return. Showing increasing comfort in his return, if he returns to even last year's pre-concussion form, you get a guy who will log some time while allowing the fewest goals/60 (on even strength) of your blueliners.

Honestly, I don't know. So I'll ask the masses.

Poll

Who would you like to see sit come playoff time?

Milan Jurcina

33 votes

John Erskine

3 votes

Jeff Schultz

11 votes

Brian Pothier

4 votes

The current rotation is working just fine, thank you.

30 votes

81 votes | Poll has closed

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Comments

I think it’s Juice to start, but I don’t think you’ll see Bruce letting anyone sit for more than two games at a time.

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by J.P. on Apr 6, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah. I’m guessing it’ll be a more consistent rotation that the one with Eminger last year, but I’d think whomever they play in Round 1 might be a factor in tightening things up, so to speak.

"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."

by Bald Pollack on Apr 6, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

But I’m the one who doesn’t know and is awaiting votes.

"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."

by Bald Pollack on Apr 6, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Will someone tell the Habs fans

…that voting for Jurcina here will get Maxim Lapierre into the 2009-10 All Star Game? Thanks!

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 6, 2009 10:21 AM EDT reply actions

Not Schultz. Not Pothier. Not Erskine. By process of elimination, it’s Juice.

by fat_daddyo on Apr 6, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed. Schultz and Erskine have earned sweaters every night, IMO, except to the extent that scratches can help keep them fresh (this seems especially useful with Erskine). I think Juice is adequate, but Pothier’s skating gives him the edge here. I’d expect to see Juice and Pothier trading off to some extent depending on the matchups and until the time if/when Pothier looks to be fully up to form.

by grapejoos on Apr 6, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

One question, why no Poti on the list? I think I ’d rather see him sit out a few than any of the rest of them.

by SethB on Apr 6, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

Poti sure is making a case for joining the rotation.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Apr 6, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Poti hasn’t been part of the rotation so far, which was why I left him out. Curse you, hindsight!

"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."

by Bald Pollack on Apr 6, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I was wondering that but decided it was safer not to ask :)

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Apr 6, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted Jurcina because Erskine kills penalties and Juice takes so many.

by David Getz on Apr 6, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

I voted Erskine as well, for those reasons and the fact that 4 in the lineup might make Bruce less inclined to stick 87 back in there.

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by J.P. on Apr 6, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I have to admit that while I’m not surprised Jurcina and “current rotation” are running away with it, I am surprised Erskine has only one vote (especially since Schultz has three). My guess is that it’s a toughness thing and that the perceived need for a guy like Erskine in the playoffs is keeping him in there for a lot of folks.

by David Getz on Apr 6, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting, too, that this comes just a month after the Ersky/Juice Pick ’Em, in which people perferred Juice 2:1. Has Erskine been that much better than Juice (or Juice that much worse) in the past 30 days?

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by J.P. on Apr 6, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I tend to be a little knee-jerk on Erskine based on what he’s done lately, I think. I am pretty sure I was praising Erskine when he came back from his concussion and then picking Juice over him a month ago, and now picking Juice to sit out. This is bizarre because Juice’s game has changed very little over that span. Erskine just does a really good job of convincing me he is the physical answer the blueline has needed a lot of nights (particularly when he’s well-rested it seems), but can have a couple of brutal nights and have me ready to give up on him.

To answer, I think Erskine has had a pretty good last 30 days, but being part of the problem I admit my preference is hard to explain/pin down.

by grapejoos on Apr 6, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I think since the rotation started we look worse with Erskine scratched than we do with Juice scratched. Yes, I voted with my eyes.

by Rob Parker on Apr 6, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that Erskine has been playing better than Juice the last month, but worst case for Erskine is that the difference in play isn’t noticeable between the two.

What is different is the toughness you referred to in your earlier point, and how that will be in high demand come April 15th. Two great fights, and many solid checks, have put to rest any question in my mind about Erskine’s ability to get over the mental hurdle of playing with his concussion history.

by Cluster on Apr 6, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

As one of the 3 Erskine voters

Erskine has more hits/60, but also way more penalties/60. People talk about Erskine providing a “physical presence,” and he does, but Jurcina’s not exactly hitting guys with his purse – he is second on the team in total hits. Furthermore, Jurcina blocks a ton of shots and possesses an absolute CANNON from the point.

Combine all that with the fact that Jurcina is better overall with the puck than Erskine and is less prone to stupid retaliatory-meathead penalties, and I think it’s a no-brainer. Personally, I think that Juice’s penalties will go down in the playoffs. I know that JP put something up about penalties actually going up in the playoffs, and I’m not disputing that, but I think that a lot of Juice’s penalties down below the faceoff dots are of the “he eliminated that guy so completely along the boards that I have to call something” variety.

by D'ohboy on Apr 7, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe, but if they’re calling them, they’re calling them.

Juice’s 5-on-5 penalty +/- is ~~26. Erskine’s is -10. Juice’s 5-on-5 penalty +/~~ per 60 is -1.4. Erskine’s is -0.8.

Erskine’s also allows fewer goals/60 while 4-on-5 and actually is second among the team’s D in 4-on-5 +/- (i.e. he’s the better penalty killer).

The way this team takes penalties and kills them, I’d rather have the guy who commits fewer penalties and who is also better at killing them off.

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by J.P. on Apr 7, 2009 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions

sonofa… Juice is minus-26, Erskine’s is minus-10. Stupid formatting…

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by J.P. on Apr 7, 2009 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting. I was using the raw stats: PIMs and games played, given that the two of them play about the same number of minutes a night, I figured the numbers should be close. Juice has 66 PIMs in 76 games and Erskine has 60 in 49. I’m guessing that majors don’t count toward the 5-5 penalty +/-, so that probably lowers Erskine a bit, but still.

by D'ohboy on Apr 7, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Did the math: Raw PIMs/60: Erskine: 4.49, Jurcina: 3.24. Even taking fighting majors, I’d still wager that Erskine comes out ahead.

by D'ohboy on Apr 7, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

When it comes to non-coincidental five on five minors, Jurcina has more.

by David Getz on Apr 8, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

My guess is that it’s a toughness thing and that the perceived need for a guy like Erskine in the playoffs is keeping him in there for a lot of folks.

You might be onto something. I was looking through a different prism back then (and voted Juice) for that reason. Now it’s more of a toss up for me.

"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."

by Bald Pollack on Apr 6, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

IIRC that poll was taken before the Nashville game, too.

by Rob Parker on Apr 6, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Why isn’t Morrisonn an option in the poll?

Pick SPG for your chance to win probably nothing.

by xiix on Apr 6, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Because lately he has been playing like he did last season. Right now he’s playing better than every D-man except Greenie IMHO. Smart positional play + no late 3rd period mental cramps.

by Carl Putnam on Apr 6, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions