History lesson: How teams fared after coming back from a 3-1 series deficit

by Stephen Pepper on Apr 29, 2009 10:04 PM EDT

As you probably know by now, the 2008-09 Caps became the 21st team in NHL history to win a playoff series after falling behind 3 games to one.

Of the 20 previous teams to accomplish this feat, fourteen were eliminated in the next round (in 2003, Minnesota defeated Vancouver, and each team had accomplished the comeback from 3-1 down in the previous round); and one lost in the Stanley Cup Finals (Vancouver, 1994).

The other four teams out of the 20 (i.e. 20%) won the Stanley Cup. Those four teams were:

-Toronto in 1942 (Winning the SCF after falling behind 3-1),
-Edmonton in 1990 (first round comeback),
-Pittsburgh in 1992 (first round comeback), and
-New Jersey in 2000 (conference finals comeback)

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Based solely on historical precedent, the Caps had an 8% chance of coming back to win the last series after being down 3-1.

And, based solely on historical precedent, having accomplished that, they have a 20% chance of winning the Cup.

So, based solely on historical precedent, the Caps are 2.5 times as likely to win the Cup as they were to win the series they just won.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Apr 29, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

That is some sweet sweet perspective.

I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.

by Whiter Mage on Apr 29, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

C-3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1.
Han Solo: Never tell me the odds.

by JustJeff on Apr 30, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

This is some really interesting stuff, Pepper.

by David Getz on Apr 29, 2009 10:28 PM EDT reply actions

20 times. 20 freaking times. This is much rarer than winning a Stanley Cup, which is comparatively common by comparison. Awesome.

by D'ohboy on Apr 29, 2009 10:35 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, I just said comparatively common by comparison. My brain is fried.

by D'ohboy on Apr 29, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions

Good album name though.

by Yoshietree on Apr 29, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions

At the risk of raining on a parade, though ....

14/20 were eliminated in the next round. Taken purely historically, that means we have a 70% chance of losing to the Pens.

But then again … for this team, the Han Solo quote is appropriate. “Never tell me the odds.”

Alex Ovechkin as Han Solo. Nicky as Luke Skywalker …. uh, no, I’m going to stop there.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Apr 30, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions

Who’s Chewbacca?

by katzistan on Apr 30, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Erskine.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Apr 30, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I dig it. .

Fedorov: Obi Wan.

by fat_daddyo on Apr 30, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess that makes the Penguins the Empire?

by gfcaps fan on Apr 30, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Staal brothers, nameless storm troopers guarding emperor Stanley’s cup?

by d_fens_65 on Apr 30, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Can I just interrupt and say that this is soooo nerdy

by DemoDaze on Apr 30, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That would be something if we had to go through all three of them

by snowburnt on Apr 30, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

It’d be the first time someone had to go through three Staals to nearly reach a climax since Larry Craig. Zing!

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Apr 30, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

Heyo! Rec’d.

by grapejoos on Apr 30, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Malkin as Emperor Palpatine?

Definitely, Matt Cooke as Jar-jar Binks.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Apr 30, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

You want nerdy?

Boudreau=Yoda
Lisa Hillary=Princess Leia
Boyd Gordon/Steckel=R2D2 (really useful in certain tight situations)
Alex Semin=Lando Calrissian (not consistently on-side, but comes through in the clutch)
Jeff Schultz=C3PO (tall, stiff, and overly polite)
Evgeni Malkin=Darth Vader (bad guy that you grudgingly respect/think is a badass)
Viktor Kozlov=Wedge Antilles (moderately useful wingman who only shows up occasionally)
Tomas Fleischmann=Jar Jar Binks (you wonder why he’s in the plot in the first place)

and. . .

Sidney Crosby=Anakin Skywalker from episodes II and III (undeniably talented, but totally whiny bitch that you’re supposed to care about but you really just cannot stand)

by D'ohboy on Apr 30, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Someone, please photoshop some of this!

by gfcaps fan on Apr 30, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Alternatively, I guess I could see Laich as Lando=smooth-talking ladies man.

“Colt 45. Get’s ’em every time.”

by D'ohboy on Apr 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

by Gould Old Days on Apr 30, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I remember 1992....

Alas, it was the Caps that the Pens came back on in 1992 to go from 3-1 down to win the Cup. The Pens went 16-5 that play-off run, and won their last 11 in a row (the Rangers had them down 2-1 in round 2). The Caps were one of the top 3 teams in the NHL that year (along with the Pens and Rangers) but they couldn’t close the deal on the Pens…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 30, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions