After the Caps went down 2-0, I started thinking about their roster moves this summer. After they went down 3-1, I was writing this season's post-mortem in my head. I wrote a couple of posts regarding the sheer improbability of a comeback in these circumstances. Many of you disagreed with me, essentially saying, "screw the numbers, I believe."
To all of you, I dedicate this. And I couldn't be happier to do it.
I will say this, though: the numbers weren't "wrong." What the Capitals have just done is a historically improbable event. There's a reason that they keep showing Dale Hunter's OT goal against the Flyers in '88, and there's a reason that the old timers get misty and choked up when they see it.
Put another way, the probability of winning the Stanley Cup in any given playoff year is (all things being equal), 6.25% (1/16). The probability of coming back from down 2-0 and down 3-1 is around 8%.
Even if we don't get a parade this year, we've already seen this team make history. Don't take this for granted.
Let's Go CAPS!!!!