To All the Rink Rats

by D'ohboy on Apr 29, 2009 3:12 PM EDT

After the Caps went down 2-0, I started thinking about their roster moves this summer. After they went down 3-1, I was writing this season's post-mortem in my head. I wrote a couple of posts regarding the sheer improbability of a comeback in these circumstances. Many of you disagreed with me, essentially saying, "screw the numbers, I believe."

To all of you, I dedicate this. And I couldn't be happier to do it.

I will say this, though: the numbers weren't "wrong." What the Capitals have just done is a historically improbable event. There's a reason that they keep showing Dale Hunter's OT goal against the Flyers in '88, and there's a reason that the old timers get misty and choked up when they see it.

Put another way, the probability of winning the Stanley Cup in any given playoff year is (all things being equal), 6.25% (1/16). The probability of coming back from down 2-0 and down 3-1 is around 8%.

Even if we don't get a parade this year, we've already seen this team make history. Don't take this for granted.

Let's Go CAPS!!!!

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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rec’d for the optimism, grace, and two Social D vids in the same post! Mike Ness is a rock God.

by SethB on Apr 29, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

It’s good to see someone admitting their premature waving of the white flag. Hopefully we won’t even have to consider that next round – as in, GET OFF TO A FAST START AGAINST PITTSBURGH!

by ninefttall on Apr 29, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions

it will be A LOT easier for the Caps do get mentally ready for this team. they know whats ahead and respect the Pens’ skill. don’t think that was the case vs the Rangers, at first.

by ns on Apr 30, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions