Henrik Lundqvist's Rebound Control

by David Getz on Apr 26, 2009 9:06 AM EDT

As great as Simeon Varlamov have been for the Washington Capitals in the team's series against the Rangers, his counterpart, Henrik Lundqvist, has been the real key to the series. Twice in five games the Capitals have been able to put enough pressure on the 27-year-old Swede that he's wound up with decidedly un-Lundqvist like numbers; twice the Capitals have beaten the Rangers. That's not a coincidence.

Saturday morning we noted "Prior to Friday night, Lundqvist had never been relieved of his duties in a playoff game," something that might be encouraging to Caps fans. However, we also warned against getting too much confidence from that game. Whether it's due to pride, tweaks to performance, or simply the small likelihood of a goalie of Lundqvist's caliber having bad outings in consecutive games, King Henrik has generally come back strong this season after allowing four goals and after having been pulled:

Henrik Lundqvist	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
After 4+ GA	16	971	6	7	3	28	1.73	492	464	.943	2
After Being Pulled	3	184	1	1	1	5	1.63	100	95	.950	0

Lundqvist's overall number aren't the result of skewing from a few outstanding outings, either. With a few exceptions, Lundqvist has been consistently good following sub-par outings:

Date	Opp.	Result	MIN	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%
Oct. 20	DAL	L, 2-1	59	2	2.02	27	25	.926
Nov. 24*	PHO	W, 4-1	60	1	1.00	36	35	.972
Dec. 3*	PIT	SOW, 3-2	65	2	1.85	31	29	.935
Dec. 7	CGY	L, 0-3	60	3	3.00	20	17	.850
Dec. 13	CAR	SOW, 3-2	65	2	1.85	31	29	.935
Dec. 27	NJD	L, 2-4	60	4	4.00	35	31	.886
Dec. 29	NYI	W, 5-4	59	4	4.04	24	20	.833
Jan. 10	OTT	W, 2-0	60	0	0.00	33	33	1.000
Jan. 31	BOS	L, 0-1	59	1	1.01	27	26	.963
Feb. 13	FLA	SOL, 1-2	65	1	0.95	43	42	.977
Feb. 16*	STL	L, 1-2	59	2	2.04	33	31	.939
Feb. 22	TOR	OTL, 2-3	62	3	2.89	26	23	.885
Mar. 15	PHI	W, 4-1	59	1	1.01	25	24	.960
Mar. 30	NJD	W, 3-0	60	0	0.00	38	38	1.000
Apr. 4	BOS	L, 0-1	59	1	1.02	24	23	.958
Apr. 22**	WAS	W, 2-1	60	1	1.00	39	38	.974

*Game after being pulled. **Playoff game

For those who remember our earlier post on what it mean for a goaltender to have a Quality Start, that's a 75.0 Quality Start percentage, a number that would have been among the highest in the NHL this season.

The fact that the Capitals not only managed to beat Lundqvist regularly, but managed to chase him out in Game Five doesn't mean they've solved the Rangers' netminder - a fact fans can only hope a team that all too often plays too casually is aware from today's opening faceoff.

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He’s 1-1-1 (including playoffs) in games following the Caps scoring four on him (the 12/27 Devils loss, 2/13 Cats SOL and, of course, Game 4).

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by J.P. on Apr 26, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions

Lundqvist has played 75 games this season and logged over 4400 minutes. He could just be wearing down.

by b.orr4 on Apr 26, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions

Wow, 75? That is a ton…

by grapejoos on Apr 26, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair, it was 70

I think he just might be wearing down.

by Ovechwin on Apr 26, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, 70 is still a major workload. Only Kiprusoff (76 games? really?), Turco, and Backstrom played more. Make it 77 now.

by grapejoos on Apr 27, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I think b.orr4 was including the postseason

by David Getz on Apr 27, 2009 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Statistics are nice, but they mean nothing for today. This game will be decided based on whether or not we go to the net, and whether or not we want it more than they do. And a bit of luck here and there.

by Bonzai on Apr 26, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

Luck has played a major role in this series so hopefully (keeping my fingers crossed) the so-called hockey-gods are in our favor today.

by bigmac1124 on Apr 26, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Statistics are nice, but they mean nothing for today.

Actually, they do. They mean the team hasn’t “solved” Lundqvist and that they need to be prepared to work for their goals – the point you’re making.

by David Getz on Apr 26, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

great post. rec’d for the stats alone. at some point this stops being a coincidence. the caps can expect his best today. i’d like to think he’ll see the caps’ best as well. can’t wait.

by Natty Bumppo on Apr 26, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

I’m expecting a low scoring game today. I doubt we’ll see more than 3 goals scored. I do like the fact that even when Hank turns his game on after letting 4 goals against the Rags are still only about .500. We can do this but I think we need to score early and Varlamov is going to have to have his best game of the series.

by Rob Parker on Apr 26, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

I’m so glad you were wrong!

by Scott in Shaw on Apr 26, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously man. I was way off. My brother has been killing me for it all day. My over/under was done by the end of the first period.

by Rob Parker on Apr 26, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

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