Capitals/Rangers: Match-up Overview

by David Getz on Apr 13, 2009 3:00 PM EDT

Match-ups are at the core of any playoffs series, and the first round series between the Capitals and Rangers is no exception. Here's how we see the two teams stacking up in seven key areas:

Caps_rangers_table5_medium

Offense - The Capitals had the second most goals in the NHL this season; the Rangers had the second fewest. The Capitals had four players with more points than anyone on the Rangers and three players with more goals. This one's not even close, but the Rangers get two checks because the additions of Nik Antropov, Derek Morris, and John Tortorella make them better than the season-long numbers suggest. This is probably where the Capitals have their single biggest advantage.

Defense - The Capitals were 21st in the league in goals against average but between the injuries to the back line (about one in five man-games on defense were played by guys currently in Hershey), Jose Theodore's poor start to the season, and how undisciplined the team is, the numbers make the Capitals look worse than they actually are. That said, the Rangers allowed the second-fewest goals in the NHL this season. Sure, a large part of that is the system they've played for most of the season, but keeping opponents off the board is keeping opponents off the board, no matter how it's done.

Goaltending - This has to be the biggest advantage for the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist is among the NHL's best and can steal games for his team on a regular basis. Still, his 11-12/2.57/.907 career playoff stat line isn't all that great and it drops to 7-12/2.78/.901 outside of the team's 2007 series against Atlanta in which the Rangers ran roughshod over the Thrashers. Meanwhile Jose Theodore has never lost a first round playoff series and has a solid playoff resume. New York has the edge here, but it's not as significant as it's going to be made out to be.

Powerplay - The Capitals finished second in the league in powerplay conversion rate and set a franchise record in the process. The Rangers were 29th in the league in powerplay success and haven't been any better under Tortorella. Like total offense, this one's not even close.

Penalty Kill - Like total defense, the numbers suggest the Capitals units are worse than they actually are. Even with that caveat it's a stretch to say the Caps are much above average and they could be missing Boyd Gordon for all or part of this series. The Rangers led the NHL in penalty killing effectiveness.

Coaching - Bruce Boudreau has a better record and won the Jack Adams Award last season. John Tortorella has a Jack Adams too, and of course that Stanley Cup to his name. The coaching match-up is an intriguing one, and it's probably too close to call.

Intangibles - The Rangers have more playoff experience; the Capitals have great chemistry. The Rangers have Sean Avery; the Capitals have home ice advantage. The Capitals have played on autopilot for much of the season's second half and may not be able to ramp things up at will; the Rangers had to fight to get in the playoffs and might be worn out. This one's a toss-up.

As a whole, the advantage for the series has to go to Washington. The Capitals are simply bigger, faster, stronger, and more skilled than the Rangers, and while it's possible a strong outing from Lundvist could make the series competitive it is, quite frankly, a series the Capitals should win.

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Not only should they win this series, they must win it or the season is probably considered a failure. I think there’s enourmous pressure on the Caps and I’m going to be real curious to see how they handle it. That’s why it’s so important that a veteran like Poti is ready to go in Game One to calm down a young D corps and where someone like Feds will really earn his money.

by b.orr4 on Apr 13, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions

Absolutely the season is a failure if they lose in the first round.

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by J.P. on Apr 13, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Just remember that we all thought this last year, too, when we thought Philly was a push-over, especially with the Caps so, so hot at the end of last season.

by DrinkingPartner on Apr 13, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think that’s true – last season, making the playoffs was a success, given where they were at T’giving.

This year, a first round loss would represent a lateral (at best) step from last year, which would be a failure to progress.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Apr 13, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Feds is one of the intangibles. Will he play as old and HHT-prone as he did in the last six weeks of the regular season, or can he click into another gear for the playoffs?

I agree: Lot of pressure on the Caps in this series. The Rags are happy just to be here.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Apr 13, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

I just don’t see us losing here. These guys have been bored for so long, they’re aching to play in a meaningful game. And I’ve never seen a Caps team amp it up for meaningful games as much as this bunch. Add to that their disappointment holding over from last year, and one Mr. Alex Ovechkin, and the opponent doesn’t matter — hell we could play the ‘80s Red Army team — and I’d feel pretty confident.

And here’s the thing: no matter how good Caps teams have been in the past, there’s been that nagging voice in the back of my mind that it will be a crapshoot. That voice has been gone for the past few years.

Am I alone on this?

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Apr 13, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

That voice is definitely quieter for me than in past years, but it’s still there. Of course, I’m so shell-shocked by last year that I’m a little unnerved by how quiet that voice is, if you follow.

The last time I felt this good about a Caps playoff matchup was against Ottawa in 98. Hopefully the result is similar.

by grapejoos on Apr 13, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve seen the Caps make bad goalies look like superstars so many times, King Henrik is a superstar, what might they make him look like?

That said, I think that the Caps do win this one. Afterall, the Caps weaknesses match up nicely with the Rags weaknesses (as shown above).

by Sct112 on Apr 13, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

What separates these Caps to me is that they are completely untied to any Caps “legacy” if such a thing exists. They are their own group. The Caps that made bad goalies look like superstars are gone. The Caps built to eek out 2-1 games, fingers crossed, are gone. The Caps that didn’t get it done in big games…I guess that is TBD but if the recent past is any indication it’s the other teams that should be nervous.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Apr 13, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

“The Caps that made bad goalies look like superstars are gone. "

I can think of more than a handful of games this year where that is just not the case.

by Yoshietree on Apr 13, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Sadly, agreed. They usually play for the Flyers, but there’s also Gerber and several others I’ve done my best to forget.

by grapejoos on Apr 13, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Happens to every team. Detroit was shutout a few times this year too, ya know.

Look bottom line to me is these kids are champions. They’ve been champions before, Bruce has been a champion many times over, and a lot of them have done it together. That counts for a lot.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Apr 13, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Being champions is much much different than making average goalies look like all stars…

by Yoshietree on Apr 13, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Only one player on this Caps team has played for the Caps in the postseason before (Nylander) and in the 2003 playoffs with the Caps he was 3-2-5 for the 6 games… not too shabby.

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 13, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty fair run down there. The home ice advantage should be factored in there in some way. VZC will be absolutely rocking on Wednesday.

Agree with JP here if the Caps get bounced. Definitely a failure and will mean GMGM will need more tinkering to adjust the complexion of the team for playoff sucess. That being said barring a complete melt down by the team or Theodore I see the caps advancing. The next round is a whole different story.

by usiel on Apr 13, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions

If there is a meltdown and it is JT60, it’s easier to fix than if it isn’t.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Apr 13, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

The AO Factor

No doubt the Caps have had numerous playoff failures, but those teams never had the best player in hockey on their side. Eventually, just like it used to for Pittsburgh, that has to make a difference.

by b.orr4 on Apr 13, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Agree wholeheartedly here. The Caps always used to be the ones bringing a knife to a gunfight. Now the shoe is wholly on the other foot.

We know what this team does well, and we know what it doesn’t. I’m pretty confident that GMGM has a good grasp on this as well, and also a fistful of plans to address the deficiencies.

Meanwhile, this team is simply better than the Rangers.

by fat_daddyo on Apr 13, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

You read every story out of NY or listen to any interview and it’s 80% about controlling Ovechkin and 20% about Green. I wonder sometimes if they even know Semin and Backstrom are on the Caps (which is just fine with me).

by b.orr4 on Apr 13, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Torts does, I’m pretty sure.

Lot of chatter our of NYC (including from Torts) about how they won’t be able to match lines in Games 1 and 2. Guess they don’t know that BB doesn’t match lines, really. I wish he would.

by fat_daddyo on Apr 13, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Meanwhile, this team is simply better than the Rangers.

This statement completely sums it up for me. I’ll happily take the Caps’ question marks over the Rags’, and be happy that the boys in “our” sweaters are just better than the boys in their’s.

by Sct112 on Apr 13, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Can someone please make it Wednesday already?

by Ginga on Apr 13, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

This.

I’m done with match-ups on paper I want to see it in RL.

by Ovechwin on Apr 13, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

This reminds me of how HTS used to always do the checkoffs before each game. I miss HTS…

by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Apr 13, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions

I’m in New York, and all anyone talks about is how much of a coaching edge the Rags have (guess they have to grasp for some edge). I think we all like BB, but you can’t replace the experience – and the Cup – Tortorella has.

by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Apr 13, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions

This is true, though I do have to point out that while Boudreau got bounced in his first NHL playoff series, it’s not like hasn’t had playoff success at other levels before (most notably, winning the Calder Cup in Hershey).

Still, Torts gets an edge there, but it’s pretty well cancelled out by the other “intangible” factors as DMG suggested, IMO.

by grapejoos on Apr 13, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

He did lose in the first round last year but not after a hard fought 7 game series with two games going into overtime, against the team that eventually lost the conference championship.

That’s good experience to have.

by snowburnt on Apr 13, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree – a Cup trumps 0 NHL playoff wins in a big way. But Bruce knows these guys better than Torts knows his, and knows a thing or two about winning. If I did the post, I think I’d have it 4-3 Torts, but I can buy “even.”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Apr 13, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Torts has the playoff experience edge now, but keep in mind, until the year he won the Cup he was a below .500 coach in the playoffs with just five total wins. Coaching experience counts, but more often talent counts more.

by b.orr4 on Apr 13, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

And since he won the Cup, how many playoff series/games have Tortorella’s teams won? Just askin’…

by katzistan on Apr 13, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

A fair point — their miracle Cup run wasn’t followed up with anything spectacular, with largely the same team the next year. Tortarella does have a Cup, and so do a good many members of last year’s Tampa Bay team that got dismantled.

What does that say?

by DrinkingPartner on Apr 13, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You can’t blame Torts that they lost Ben Clymer. It was never really the same without him…

by katzistan on Apr 13, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

The “miracle Cup run” was followed with the lockout. No chance at defending the Cup with that roster since they came back to a capped league and then made a series of terrible personnel decisions (none of which were Torts’ fault).

by Rob Parker on Apr 13, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Meh. That Lightning team caught, if you’ll pardon the expression, lightning in a bottle. They had a bunch of young stars come into their own all at once, and a bunch of older guys het hot as a pistol all of a sudden. No one quite knew how to deal with the young guns, and by the time anyone had figured out what was going on, it was all over.

It was that golden combination of circumstances that can lead to a two week run that produces results significantly better than the true talent level. Hockey playoffs fall between the NBA (where the better team almost always wins) and MLB (where the crapshoot element is high, depending on who’s hot and who’s not); in general, the better team wins a series in hockey, though. Tampa’s Cup run was an exception to that rule, imo.

by fat_daddyo on Apr 13, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sure I can subscribe to this. That team finished 1st in the conference and handily beat its opponents in the first 2 rounds (4-1 and a sweep). It then beat Philly in 7 games (a Philly team that finished 3rd in the East and that never led in the series). Then, they got Calgary, a #6 seed in the West, in the finals and beat them in 7. Maybe we both agree they caught something special, but I think it lasted a full season and is of the variety you see on almost every Cup champion.

That team was just plain good and had a relatively weak finals opponent. It’s hard to fathom, but they were legit cup winners (not unlike Carolina, who also happened to have a really good year.

by grapejoos on Apr 13, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

In terms of the coaching match-up, head to head, Bruce is 5-0-0 against Torts. Admittedly the team he has now is much better than the team he had last year (although the Rangers don’t have anyone up front like Vinny or Marty…)

So Torts moved up from driving a Pinto to driving a Volvo sedan (reliable, good protection). Bruce is still driving his Ferrari….

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 13, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

lets hope his Ferrari gets better gas mileage…

by snowburnt on Apr 13, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

The playoffs are a series of sprints, not a marathon like the regular season….

And most Ferraris that come off the assembly line are bright red… :)

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 14, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

My thought on the coaching is this, BB has not been in the NHL very long, his experience and success is very good for one of his level of NHL coaching experience.

by Ovechwin on Apr 13, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions