Capitals/Rangers: Opening Thoughts
by J.P. on Apr 11, 2009 11:00 PM EDT
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Now that the Caps' first-round opponent has been determined (and we've dumped a ton of numbers on you), it's time to dive head-long into the series. Here are some early thoughts...
Three Things I Think I Like About The Match-up
- The Rangers Power Play. The Caps finished the season in the bottom half of the League in penalty killing, are likely without one of their top two penalty-killing forwards (Boyd Gordon) for at least the beginning of the series, and have been horribly undisciplined all year, but... they'll be facing a Rangers power-play that was the second-worst in the NHL this season, is only 4-for-48 since March 16 (and 13.5% under John Tortorella). Throw in the fact that the Caps successfully killed 54 of 63 (85.7%) penalties in their last 16 games (and that New York has allowed the second-most shorthanded goals against in the League), and it doesn't seem likely that the Rangers power play will be the difference in this series.
- The Rangers at Five-on-Five. The Rangers were outscored at five-aside by 15 goals on the season (though, as in most facets of their game, they've been better since the coaching change) and had the worst five-on-five goals for/against ratio of any team going to the post-season. By contrast, the Caps were in the top-10 in that ratio, and out-scored opponents by 16, five-on-five. The fact that the Rangers can't score on the power play or at even strength (even under Torts they're well under the League median in goals per game) has to be encouraging to a Capitals team that allowed the most goals of any Eastern Conference playoff team (tied with Montreal) during the regular season.
- Wade Redden. Redden - he of the 6-year/$39 million contract - is having arguably his worst season as an NHLer, averaging the fewest points per game since he was 20, posting the worst plus/minus of his career, and having the most penalties taken and fewest drawn of any of the regular Rangers' blueliners. But hey, he's got a very pretty wife.
Three Things I'm Pretty Sure I Hate About The Match-up
- The Rangers penalty kill. New York has killed off 88.0% of its penalties this season, allowing just 39 power play tallies against (while scoring eight shorties). That 88% is the best single-season penalty killing rate since the Stars killed 89.2% of the power plays they faced back in 1999-2000, and they've actually been better than that - 91.5% effective - since Torts took over. The Rangers penalty kill against the Caps power play is perhaps the story heading into the series, and whether the Caps are closer to their 25.2% success rate or the Rangers' 88.0% kill rate could very well determine who advances.
- Henrik Lundqvist. As great as he was a season ago, King Henrik - who has been a Vezina finalist in each of the last three seasons - has more wins and a better save percentage in 2008-09. and he's hot at the right time, having allowed more than one goal just twice in his last seven starts. He's even got the edge in handsomeness over his Caps counterpart.
- Chris Drury. Dude's clutch. Enough said.
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Great way to look at the series, JP. Should be an interesting one to say the least!
You know the NHL will be all over the marketing of this.
Carolina On Ice: All Things Hockey in the Carolinas!
Barry Melrose Rocks: Hockey and mullets. What else is there?
wow
I was very, perhaps overly, confident that the Rangers would not make the playoffs. I’m amazed that the Rangers made it in. They sure got some moxy to get to this point, so despite the numbers, it should be entertaining.
Some storylines I’m interested in:
How does Poti and Nylander perform facing their former team?
How much will Ovechkin eat it up in America’s grandest media stage for the playoffs?
Whose ice will be worse? Sorry, couldn’t resist. Though that Frozen Four sheet looked nice on TV, though. Too bad it’s too big to use.
Will the Caps get playoff payback against Torts after his Lightning eliminated the Caps in 03?
Since a fight between the two is very unlikely, will Brashear pulverize Sean Avery through the boards?
Will Sean Avery break the Sean Avery rule?
by chockster on Apr 11, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I’ve felt through the regular season that although there are many factors for how the Caps will fair in the post season, their powerplay has become one of THE biggest game deciders. How they match up with the Ranger’s pk will be huge.
A funny stat: The Caps blueliners really like scoring gwg against the Rangers. In the last 6 games, other than Ovechkin all the Caps’ game winners have come from defensemen (Green twice, Poti and Morrisonn).
Lundqvist
Damn, damn, damn it all.
tictactoehockey.blogspot.com
by turnituptoeleven on Apr 11, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions
Thankfully the Rangers offense isn’t nearly as hot as that picture of Lundqvist lounging against the pillows. He’s yummy, their overpaid “stars”, not so much. I don’t dislike this match-up for the Caps, in fact, I might even prefer it to the Habs. Even without Markov, that team has a lot of talent and who knows what the impact of playing in Montreal would have on Theo. Yes, Lundqvist could steal the series but that’s far from certain, and as long as we get in front of the net (doesn’t that seem to be happening more frequently in recent games?), our skilled players should prevail. If I were a Rangers fan, I’d be apprehensive about the playoffs, no gimmick.
something i know i like about the matchup: no shootouts!
by Natty Bumppo on Apr 12, 2009 1:27 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I really like the Caps’ chances against the Rangers. The main thing the Caps have going for them is their energy and enthusiasm, something which the Rangers have very little of. Rangers won’t be able to match the Caps hustle or desire.
Caps in 5.
Swing by The Flyer Frequent. You have nothing better to do.
Honestly, the Rangers terrify me more than any team in the playoffs not in the Southeast Division or from California. However, I think I’ll be nervous and holding my breath until after game 1. Need to get myself in the swing of things. I’ll also be getting my ’hawk and my shave on Tuesday or Wednesday, like I did last year (Day before the playoffs). Yeah.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
If you have to dig so deep as to play the ‘Chris Drury card’ to come up with a 3rd item, I’m feeling pretty damn good. :-)
Rangers season PK: 88%. Rangers PK vs. Caps: 80%.
Lundqvist: not going to worry myself over a guy who went 1-1-1 3.57/.882 against us this year. Respect, yes. Fear, no.
LETS-GO-CAPS!
Russian Machine Never Breaks
I honestly think Lundqvist is, just like every Minnesota Wild goalie, a product of a system. More a GM system in this case than a coaching system, because the idea of the Rangers was to start at the net and build out. They got an admittedly above average goaltender and have tried to get good defensemen around him. Redden’s been a relative bust, but the corps as a whole is above average, and the offense is good enough. I’m thinking this series could be like the series between the Caps and the Red Wings in ’98, but this time, the Caps are the Wings, and the Rags the Caps, kind of sort of.
I’m just glad we know who we’re playing, and we don’t have to deal with this complacency anymore.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
I don’t think he is a product of the system at all.
When he’s on, he’s an elite goaltender. Does the Rangers system help him? Yes. But it’s not like he has Pronger, Chara and company playing in front of him.
I don’t think he’s an elite goaltender unless he’s on and his defense is on. When he’s not 100% on, he has noticeable flaws in his game. So does every goalie. I’m just kind of tired of hearing him get slurped when I don’t think he’s a top 5 goaltender.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
Anderson doesn’t even belong in the discussion for that list. I can see Vokoun because he has been hot lately but I only agree with you about Nabokov and Brodeur. I’d throw in Luongo and that’s about the complete list of goalies I’d take over Hank. Thomas is borderline but it’s hard to argue with his results.
Easily would take Brodeur, Thomas, Vokoun, Anderson, Nabby, Kippur, Giggy, Luongo, Mason, and Miller all before him.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
Why not throw in Turco, Bryzgalov, Khabibulin, Ward, and Backstrom, too. I really don’t know what weaknesses you are seeing that you have a back up goalie listed higher than him on your list. I guess that’s the beauty of hockey.
Turco can’t stop anything now, Bryz is terribly overrated, Khabi would perform about the same, Ward is terribly overrated, and Backstrom is the single most greatest example of playing in a system. Anderson won’t be a back-up next year – he’ll find a gig. I just don’t see what everyone else does in Lundqvist – and I don’t go 100% based on stats. The guy has above average stats, but I don’t think he’s an above average goalie.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
If you have to dig so deep as to play the ‘Chris Drury card’ to come up with a 3rd item, I’m feeling pretty damn good.
Heh
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Drury is -8, and is near the top of Rags team scoring with 56 points. Check out this group of forwards. Nothing remotely scary there.
Drury’s career playoff numbers open my eyes a bit.:
124 GP 46G 41A +29
Not too shabby.
And as a ranger 10GP 3G 3A +3
Not huge, but he’s NHL play off proven.
Like Gomez and Redden and Zherdev, he used to be good. Now he’s past his prime and overpaid.
If the Caps are hungry, play hard, pay the price to win their battles, go to the net, and grind out shifts, they will win. Simple as that. If they don’t they might still win, but it will be a lot closer than we’d like, and they might well lose.
The Caps are in the enviable (and to long time Caps fans, completely novel) situation of being significantly more talented than the opposition.
I’m not disputing that the Caps should win the series. I am disputing that Drury should be counted out because he’s “past his prime and overpaid”.
Is he overpaid? Absofreakinglutely. But to say he is past his prime is oversimplifying his season and underestimating him as a man…56 points isn’t an All Star season, but shows he can still be a difference maker. His -8 is still a -8, but I’m not holding that against him on a team that only has 3 forwards in the +…and one of them has only been there a few weeks.
Those guys may be overpaid but Zherdev is not past his prime and if Drury is past his prime it is only moderate. I think Chris Drury is the quintessential example of a player that cannot be evaluated by stats. His playoff numbers are good but not huge. The thing that sticks out is how many times he scores big goals and how many times he shows up on winning rosters. In a series that could be full of 1 goal games he scares me more than any other Rags skater.
My pithy, simple series preview goes like this: I can’t see the Rangers winning unless Henrik Lundqvist is the best player in the series, which he very easily could be, and even if he is, I’m not sure they win.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
How much more are we going to hate Avery after this series?
by Moonage Daydream on Apr 12, 2009 8:11 AM EDT reply actions
One of the worst things about your team playing Avery is having to hear the commentators constantly slurp him. It’s totally out of control.
Swing by The Flyer Frequent. You have nothing better to do.
by Ben Rothenberg on Apr 12, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions
heh. The one good thing is that if Avery runs Theo like the Flyers ran Huet last year, you know he’s getting called.
by b.orr4 on Apr 12, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You would think, but the Flyers aren’t exactly known for getting the benefit of the doubt from the refs. If the refs decide to swallow their whistles and let Avery get away with a bunch of crap this series is going to be extremely frustrating.
The Flyers get away with that somewhat because they dare the refs to call a ton of penalties against them (by committing a ton), and in the playoffs, the refs just aren’t going to give one team a completely lopsided number of PPs. That’s my take anyway, and it works for them (in part because of their nasty PK).
I think Avery is going to have a relatively short leash. It doesn’t work the same way if it’s just one guy causing the mayhem. That said, a pest like him can be a very valuable asset, as Caps fans know from watching Tikkanen in 98. He’s going to play well, the Caps just need to refuse to take the bait and play their game.
I really don’t think Avery’s going to be that much of a factor.
The refs are out to get him, and if he takes a dumb penalty or two, that could cost them. The Caps PP is too good for his antics to go overboard.
I think he could get to Theo or Semin, but I am not sure if I’m the Rangers I’m excited about having Avery fire up the Caps anymore. we all know what will happen if he aggravates Ovechkin, and it will likely result in Avery having to apologize to his teammate who is getting helped off the ice after they just got freight trained.
I’m nervous about Henrik, and I’m still nervous about the teams ability to ramp it up for the Playoffs. Too much of a stupor for too long makes me nervous as to whether or not everyone can zone it in. Bruce needs to work his magic in the next few days, and if he doesn’t, it might take a loss or two before they realize they need to put their best effort out. The team needs to pay the price from the get go, and Bruce better be hammering that home. Torts is gonna bring five guys back, and do his best to win with the best player he has.
I think deep down though, the Caps got a taste last year, and that should push them through it this year. I just hope they don’t take a few dumb penalties and end up in trouble and start that roller coaster to the putting greens.
I really don’t think Avery’s going to be that much of a factor.
Did you watch any of the New York/Atlanta series a couple years back? He was the biggest reason the Rangers were so dominant.
His performance last year – four goals and three assists in eight playoff games – was pretty good, and I don’t see any reason anything that’s happened to him this year diminishes his ability to aggravate opponents.
Shouldn’t we also consider the fact that arguably Avery’s biggest contribution to the Rags is not his own statistical contribution but the way he gets the rest of the team to play. When he is out there pissing people off acting like a jazbo the Rags just seem to play better. I hate that guy but I have no doubt he’ll be in full on pest mode for as long as this series lasts. Hopefully the Caps don’t throw fuel on that fire and the rest of the Rags sleepwalk through the series like they did v. PIT last year.
by Rob Parker on Apr 12, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
On paper it shouldn’t be close. The Rangers should run away with this. Stan Fischler always makes me laugh.
by b.orr4 on Apr 12, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I see the Rangers as the ideal first round match-up for the Caps, if they are to go far this postseason. Two reasons:
1.) Their horrible offense and PP will breed (hey, look at me!) confidence in our D-corps and PK units, respectively. That could be heeeyoooooge going forward.
2.) Lunqvist is the type of goalie who, if you don’t crash the net consistently, will take over games. The Caps will have to learn to make a habit of it….also potentially heeeyoooooge going forward.
3.) I get to go to games at MSG. I am 5-0-1 attending Caps games this season.
The keyboard is mightier.
Lunqvist is very good.....but
He tends to leave the upper corners open covering the bottom of the net. Playing against a team that tries to pick top corners to a fault helps the Caps
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
Heh, Mike Green might get a hat trick every game if he leaves the upper corners open.
by thehoagster07 on Apr 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s another way to compare the two teams across the season:
Overall records:
Caps – 50-24-8
Rangers – 42-30-9 (81 games)
Records before 12/23 (miracle on 34th)
Caps – 20-11-3
Rangers – 22-12-2
Records from 12/23 forward
Caps – 30-13-5
Rangers 20-18-7
Records before 2/23 (Tortorella takes over)
Caps – 38-17-5
Rangers – 31-23-7
Records from 2/23 forward
Caps – 12-7-3
Rangers – 11-7-2
It seems that for the first couple months of the season and for the last few weeks, the Caps and Rangers have been evenly matched. It was the middle couple months where the Caps pulled so far ahead in the conference.
by Gould Old Days on Apr 12, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
Interesting. I was thinking about the record after Torts took over, too. Coaching changes often produce a spurt of play that is above the true talent level, and I think that’s what we’ve seen here. The Rangers fattened up in the first couple weeks of the season against a bunch of patsies, if I recall correctly.
Another thing that gives me confidence is the fact that the Caps will have the 4-5 best players on the ice:
AO
Backstrom
Semin
Green
Laich (?)
A poll from the rangers website
Which of these will be the biggest key to the Rangers winning the Round 1 series vs. Washington?
Defensive Zone Play:
13.21 %
Goaltending:
18.24 %
Puck Possession:
13.52 %
Stopping Ovechkin:
25.47 %
Special Teams:
12.89 %
Work Ethic/Discipline:
16.67 %
Total Votes:
318
It would seem their fans under estimate the rest of our team, and their secondary scoring…
Well which one of those would you have voted for? The only other possible way I’d vote is for Goaltending and that is intimately tied to stopping AO. I think when the Caps come to town the number one thing every team tries to do is stop AO, it’s not a slight to the rest of the team it’s just reality.
The Caps more people who can score, but this is still a team built from the top down. The Flyers won games 2, 3, and 4 last year because they were able to stop Ovechkin, and lost Games 1 and 6 because they couldn’t. It was pretty much that simple.
Swing by The Flyer Frequent. You have nothing better to do.
by Ben Rothenberg on Apr 12, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
He had two points in each of Games 4 (though I’ll give you that he only had 1 SOG) and 7. Clearly there was more to the series than stopping AO four times.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Game 7 i knew didn’t fit that well, but Ovechkin still scored three goals in the three games the Caps won, and only one goal in the four games the Caps lost. That’s pretty telling.
Swing by The Flyer Frequent. You have nothing better to do.
by Ben Rothenberg on Apr 12, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Hehe, how John Madden-esque of you.
The three games the Capitals won they simply beat Biron more times than the Flyers beat Huet. It was pretty telling for what the key to success was after that.
Well yeah I guess that is pretty Madden-esque of me. But god help me it’s the truth this time…3.29 GAA isn’t going to win you a lot of games in the regular season let alone the playoffs. I’m not putting the blame on any individual, but that’s unheard of…show me the last team that’s even made the playoffs, let alone won a series, with a 3.29 GAA.
I think this is pretty telling for the most part as to how the Flyers won (how much of that was caused by playoff inexperience is anyone’s guess), and the reason I’m more optimistic this year is that the Caps seem to have guys other than Ovechkin that now know they can take over a playoff game (Backstrom and Semin especially). Laich has a lot of confidence right now. Flash, Fehr, Aucoin, and Steckel are playing with confidence. Fedorov is Fedorov. There are a lot of things to like right now.
My only concern, really, is that the Caps have not played playoff-caliber teams in a pretty long time. They were very good at stepping up for those games in the regular season, but I can’t help but feel a little nervous. I’d still be a lot more nervous as a Rags fan.
The thing that makes me nervous about the match up is the physical play of the Rangers compared to the Caps. It seems that when the Caps play a physical game, the get called for several penalties. Have to figure that problem out, and I really wish the Caps would have figured it out earlier.
No mystery whatsoever. The Caps’ penalty problem has nothing whatsoever to do with “playing a physical game.” The Caps best efforts in the last three weeks have come in the chippiest, most physical games. The penalties stem from a gross over-abundance of HHT calls. (H/t DMG.)
Nice, dude. How much do I owe you?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Drury WAS clutch. I’m not so sure he is anymore. No one on that team is. Except maybe Avery (seriously, that’s it)
Another good thing: The Rangers can’t win in the shootout.
My favorite thing about this matchup: I have tickets to games 3 and 4.
My main concern is that I hope the Caps don’t think they can sleepwalk through this round. There’s no doubt they can beat the Rangers, but they still have to work at it.
Hopefully, no. I have a hard time believing he’s going to contribute more to the Capitals than Aucoin or Gordon.
certainly not at center he won’t. : ) Your reasoning is sound, but I have a feeling Bruce is going to go with him at some point in the series, which I foresee to be a messy, 6 or 7 game affair.
I don’t like this matchup one bit, because they are extra nasty down the middle and their goalie is better than ours. A damn sight better.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Apr 13, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 3:50 AM EST)
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