FanPost

It's all about winning four of seven

Winning the Stanley Cup is relatively simple:  All you have to do is win four games out of every seven in the playoffs.  With that in mind, I thought I'd look at the top cup contenders and check, for every seven game stretch in the season, how often they won 4 or more and how often they had a losing record.  I treated losses and overtime losses as the same thing, since they're the same in the playoffs. Here's the raw data in a spreadsheet (use the tabs at the bottom to look at individual teams). 

Here's the summary in a table.  There are about 70 seven-game stretches for each team so far, since they overlap.  So think of this as a measure of consistency over the course of the season. 

 

Team

W

L/OTL

Win 4/7

Lose 4/7

Wings

49

27

64

6

Sharks

50

26

57

13

Devils

47

29

55

15

Caps

46

30

51

19

Flyers

41

34

51

19

Bruins

48

27

49

21

 

This really makes the Wings look like the team to beat.  They basically don't slump.  Which is the key to the playoffs, because it only takes one slump in the postseason to knock you out.

The results with the Bruins are very interesting.  Only the Sharks have lost fewer games, but the Bruins have clustered their losses while the Wings and Sharks have spread them out.  If you look at the Bruins tab on the spreadsheet, you'll see that they had a really long cold stretch in February and March.

The data makes the Devils look like the top team in the east.  Pretty amazing that even without Brodeur for much of the season they've been so consistent.

The Caps have had their share of down stretches, so they definitely look vulnerable.  Likewise the Flyers.  But of course this is data about the regular season.  And teams almost never play seven straight games against playoff teams during the regular season.  It's tougher to win four in the playoffs.

 

Edited: Someone added the Canadiens to the spreadsheet.  Here's what their season looks like.

 

Team

W

L/OTL

Win 4/7

Lose 4/7

Canadiens

39

37

33

37

 

 

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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