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The Swedish Machine Never Breaks Either

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photo credit:  John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images

Yeah, Nicklas Backstrom makes that pass.

In all of the chatter, both here and elsewhere, over the inconsistent effort of the Capitals while rounding third on the regular season, one player, I submit, can safely remain outside of that conversation.  And that's #19.

In a season which finds some of us, on certain game nights, searching in vain for the presence of a handful of forwards, Nick forges on each time he steps onto the ice.  Other fans like to single out blueliners for a lousy night at the office.  Still others may criticize a poor performance between the pipes.  But I cannot recall one game night in #19's brief NHL career, where Backstrom served as an exhibit of floating, coasting, an unwillingness to "go to the bakery" (to paraphrase and conflate the now-famous Brooks Laich quote), or just plain doggin' it.

Those who cover the team from the perch will tell you the same thing.  One afternoon in January, after a game on the Island, I asked Tarik which player(s) he thought "never took a night off," and he singled out Backstrom.

The barely 21-year-old, who weighed in a shade under 180 lbs. when drafted in 2006, plays with an edge that belies his stature and demeanor.  Being tagged as another lithe and crafty Swede, far from being considered "aggressive," many figured that it would take some time for Nicky to adjust to the abuse dispensed by bigger, more experienced opponents. 

How about a month and a half of adjustment.  (Or really just a new coach who believed in his abilities right now.  See also Green, Mike.)  Even from a top 5 overall pick, that's extraordinary.

For any observers who still don't consider Nick to be an aggressive and relentlessly competitive centerman, I suppose that all of continually wresting the puck in the corners from taller and heavier defensemen, absorbing crushing hits in the corner while staying firm as a tripod and with the biscuit on his stick, entering the zone with a powerful stride and his head up, and driving to, and making a tight orbit around, the opponent's crease escapes the definition of aggressiveness. 

Recent case in point:  he was at the top of TB netminder Mike McKenna's crease for both of his tallies on Friday night.  And who can forget that scrum in front of the New Jersey net during the dying seconds of regulation in Newark, back on Nov. 15?  If Nick did not wedge himself into the fray, collect the puck, and dish it with surgical precision to a waiting Alex Ovechkin at the opposite edge of the crease, the Caps would not have enjoyed one of the most dramatically-earned points this season.  (Not to mention fans witnessing a top nominee for dogpile celebration of the season.)

Like #8 with respect to the "Russian hockey player" stereotype, Backstrom is, in more subtle fashion, re-defining (as did Peter Forsberg before him) what it means to be a "Swedish hockey player" in the NHL.  (And with that, the hockey world can perhaps draw a little closer toward dispensing with these dubious, if not nefarious, pre-judgments based upon a player's country of origin.)

But before we get further sidetracked, let's come back to the point of this post, which is Nick's remarkable consistency throughout this season.  It's plain to see that the team's top pivot has the second-most points on the squad.  And is the fourth best forward, and top center, on the team in ES +/-. 

Not so plain is that he's scored at least a point in 52 of 76 (68%) of his GP this season.  Eight of those "pointless" games took place roughly the first month of the season, when Nicky was playing through an ankle injury sustained in training camp.  And he's been held pointless in only three games since Feb. 7.  (By contrast, Ovechkin, the other Mr. Consistency, has scored points in 56 of 73 GP, or 77%.)  Nicky's also registered a minus rating in only fifteen games all season. 

On the PP, he leads all Caps in goals/60 and points/60, the latter by an impressive margin.  And he's starting to hold his own on the PK when called upon.

He's also consistent without regard to his right winger, scoring the same number of points (13) while at ES with Alex Semin or Viktor Kozlov on that wing.

League-wide, he's tied for tenth-best in total points, and he's ranked fourth in assists (just two behind Pavel Datsyuk).  He's also the fifteenth-best center in the league in primary assists / ES60 (1.08) (of those pivots who have at least 20 GP).  He's also pulling the smallest salary of any skater in the top 20 in scoring.  For now.

And speaking of that early ankle injury, Nick's durable, having played in every regular season and playoff game since he made his NHL debut at the beginning of last season.  Brooks Laich is the only other Cap that can claim that ruggedness. Like a crash-tested Volvo blasting out ALPHA 60, the Swedish Machine never breaks either.

Finally, he's also improved in nearly every key statistic from last season to this campaign to date, scoring more goals (14 to 21), more points (69 to 80); bettering his shooting % (9.2 to 12.8), and getting more shots on net (153 to 164).  All with six games to go.  We could easily see him approaching a 100 point season in 2009-10.

However, as much as his career to date has been as brilliant as his flowing blond locks (easily the best hockey hair on the team, if not in the league), there are two elements of his game which could stand improvement. 

One is simply his ability to draw penalties (and not commit them).  Last season, he draw 22 ES minor penalties and committed just nine.  This year, he's on the wrong side of that ledger, having drawn just nine and committed 15.

Two is winning more draws.  JP broke down his struggles at the dot in early February and, since then, he's still plagued by a FO% below 50% (47.1) whilst continuing to lead the team in face-offs taken by a large margin.  Assistant coach Dean Evason suggested that if Nick just bears down a little bit more, he'll shore up that crucial element of his game:

[A]lthough Nick can win faceoffs with his skill level, if he can combine that with a tenaciousness in the circle and being real strong plus using his skill level, he's going to be a real good faceoff guy in the years to come.

Worked for Brooksy (who is, incidentally, winning draws at a 51.2% clip in 492 showdowns).  Still, Backstrom has shown slight improvement over the last ten, winning 55% of draws in those contests (83 of 151) and exactly 50% in the offensive end (33 of 66).

But no player is perfect.  Heck, if Nick was playing for Les Habitants, they'd already be calling him St. Nick.

Comment 73 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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For any observers who still don’t consider Nick to be an aggressive and relentlessly competitive centerman, I suppose that all of continually wresting the puck in the corners from taller and heavier defensemen, absorbing crushing hits in the corner while staying firm as a tripod and with the biscuit on his stick, entering the zone with a powerful stride and his head up, and driving to, and making a tight orbit around, the opponent’s crease escapes the definition of aggressiveness.

This is an excellent point. Guys always get lauded for toughness when they throw big hits or get physical, but it takes an awful lot of toughness to be willing to absorb those hits and keep on going.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions  

OH YEAH WHERE ARE THE BODY CHEX IF HE IS SO TUFF HE NEEDS TO GROW A PAIR. WE SHOULD HAVE TRADED HIM FOR BRENDAN WITT lolz.

/Caps message board’ed

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 30, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I left that place long long ago when JP moved to SB Nation. Consider this the new Caps Message Board, or at least, the smarter Caps Message Board.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Here, here! I may check over there, but I read here. Kudos to intelligent discussion.

by gfcaps fan on Mar 30, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

No question which player’s name plate will be sewn on the back of my next Caps jersey.

by Stephen Pepper on Mar 30, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Already got you there. I had Backis this summer, and looks like it was a jolly good call.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Mar 30, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Knock.

On.

Wood.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   4 recs

I’m macvechkin and I rec’d that comment.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Mar 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Before I looked, I’d never have guessed that 19 is third in the NHL in power-play points (and ahead of a certain snot-nosed, oiled-up, Whiny Diving punk).

So fine, he’s good 5-on-4. But what’s interesting to me is that he’s third in the NHL in PPP and the Caps power play hardly runs through 19. (Not even close.) He just gets stuff done.

by TylerG on Mar 30, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I think the thing to take from that is that our PP does, in fact, run through 19, we just don’t notice it. He and Green are really what drive it, with Ovie being a bit of a decoy I suppose. Obviously he’s not the finisher, but he gets in on most of the points and really controls the play.

by brs03 on Mar 30, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Decoy is no bad thing. Everyone expects Ovi, and certainly Ovi does his share of the damage. But really, Ovi and Green are the finishers. Backstrom is the playmaker.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Mar 30, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

He leads the league in powerplay points and is one goal away from the lead in powerplay goals. That’s a hell of a decoy.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

“Stealthy” is definitely not a word I’d use to describe Ovechkin.

If we’re delving into military analogies, Ovechkin’s an M1 Abrams. He’s huge, he’s fast, you know he’s coming and still have no prayer at stopping him.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I meant stealthy for Backstrom. I agree Ovechkin is an M1 Abrams, and Semin, he’s a MiG.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, he kind of is in an odd sense, because everybody focuses on him, and half the time can’t stop him no matter what they do. But they have to focus on him because he will torch them if they don’t, and so they focus on him and leave people like Green to sneak in on the backdoor.

There’s no doubt that Ovi makes the powerplay go in part, but you’re right that others have contributions.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Mar 30, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’s a decoy relative to Backstrom. Backstrom is the one that drives a good amount of our offense on the powerplay, not Ovechkin. Ovie is generally the one finishing of course, but he and Semin are the decoys that draw everyone to the left wing and give Backstrom (and Laich/Fedorov, and Green) the room to work on the right side making the plays. So yeah, he is a decoy in a way. They waste their time covering him rather than trying to break up the play, and then end up getting burned by him anyways.

by brs03 on Mar 30, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Backstrom is one of the most overlooked players in the league by analysts. Chalk it up to being on Ovechkin’s team, but as Pep said, if he were in Montreal, he’d be a golden god.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it’s a combination of the “anyone can produce on a line with Ovechkin” approach and who Backstrom plays with. Ovechkin is the best player in the world, Semin might be the most talented, and Green is leaps and bounds ahead of defensemen in terms of offensive production.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly, plus anyone else realize that Backstrom has already passed his point totals from last year? No sophomore slump for our top swede, and that’s including a a rough start in October (4A, 4P)

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very much worth noting on his face offs, after the Leafs game, I noted this:

Nicklas Backstrom won ten of 17 draws (59), had a nice wrap around attempt and several nice touch passes, including the set-up on Alex Ovechkin’s 51st goal of the season, and I suppose that’s why he was rewarded with a shootout attempt. But more importantly, back to that faceoff number – he now has won 53.6 of the 168 faceoffs he’s taken in the last 11 games. That’s a huge positive for the team amid a few bad weeks.

In the only game since, he was 14-of-16 (!), meaning he’s 56.5% in his past dozen games, which would be Top Ten in the League on the season.

Also worth loving: his Takeaway-to-Giveaway ratio.

All this before his 22nd birthday. Holy hell.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

I watch Nicky and wish for the next NHL CBA to have a ‘Larry Bird’ rule.

by TylerG on Mar 30, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Perhaps then better characterized as more than just a “slight improvement.”

by Stephen Pepper on Mar 30, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nick is an absolute gem and, if he stays healthy, he’s going to post numbers that on any other team would be mind-boggling. If the ’06 draft were held again, I wonder if Johnson, Staal and Toews would still be take ahead of him.

by b.orr4 on Mar 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

I’d say yes on Johnson and Toews and no on Staal.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

U think PIT wishes they had Kessel instead of Staal…

by Rob Parker on Mar 30, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Backstrom is the perfect sidekick for Ovechkin. He will never be the guy to carry a team on his back and will a victory out of nothing (though he is capable), and I’m sure he is happy to let Ovechkin/Semin have this role. But his vision and passing skills are uncanny, he is defensively responsible when Ovi wants to cherry-pick (which is his right), and his offensive zone positioning and awareness are superb. Ovechkin isn’t last year’s 65-goal scorer without him, and I’d guess somewhere in the 40s this year. I love, LOVE, that the two are friends off the ice too. 19+8 4eva!

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree that he does well with Ovechkin (though Backstrom seems to be able to do well with anyone) but no one, not even Ovechkin, has the right to cherry pick and not play defense (though I don’t think it’s something Ovechkin is guilty of all that often).

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

No pun intended, but when Ovechkin picks his spots some cherry-picking is appropriate. It stretches the ice, keeps the D on their heels, and Backstrom has the ability to hit him in stride. Well, maybe a more appropriate way to descibre Ovie’ cherry-picking would be “extremely early anticipation of a defensive stop and transition”.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 30, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m with you.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough. It’s just when I hear the term “cherry pick” I think of a guy who hang out at the red line when the play is in his own end, rather than someone who breaks out of their own zone aggressively. Just semantics, I suppose.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe breed should’ve used the phrase “be a little more aggressive offensively” so as not to offend. :)

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

He seems to have good attitude and he has became more secure (?)

“If we play like we know we can, under our system and our rules and have a bit of lucky in addition then we can go long/deep. But we will see, we have to first pass the first round.”

Как же так может быть?

by sleza on Mar 30, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Great post.

as brilliant as his flowing blond locks (easily the best hockey hair on the team, if not in the league),

by vt caps fan on Mar 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Hit enter way to early, but I was saying this a GREAT comment that just made me LOL.

by vt caps fan on Mar 30, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definitely my favorite SP post since the move, and that blond lock comment seals it.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

"we got our guy"

i remember GMGM saying that in the behind the scenes draft day footage. even then he knew what Backstrom could become.

his progress this year has been very noticeable.

by ns on Mar 30, 2009 4:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Link

It’s a fascinating series of videos. I don’t remember the exact video where GMGM said this, but it’s not too long.

by Ovechwin on Mar 30, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

He will never be the guy to carry a team on his back and will a victory out of nothing (though he is capable), and I’m sure he is happy to let Ovechkin/Semin have this role.

Not sure I agree with this. I think he absolutely can and has done this – look at the Atlanta game last year when the Caps were just about to give up on their playoff hopes. Dude who’s never scored two in a game before scores two in 35 seconds late in the 3rd. He picked it up in the playoffs, too, when OV was stalling, 4 goals in the last 4 games. I think Backis is just the kind of quiet leader who will exactly carry the team on its back, sometimes while its more visible starts are squeezing their sticks a bit too hard trying for that highlight reel winner.

As nice as the OV-Backstrom combination is, I think Backstrom’s actually better on a line with Semin – he has a really good shot, but he almost never uses it while on the ice with OV.

by katzistan on Mar 30, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions  

As nice as the OV-Backstrom combination is, I think Backstrom’s actually better on a line with Semin – he has a really good shot, but he almost never uses it while on the ice with OV.

No kidding. If I have one complaint about Backstrom (other than his faceoff percentage) it’s that he doesn’t shoot enough.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

That one-timer against Minnesota this year, the wrister for his first goal against Atlanta this year…wow. But if he’s better with Semin, who goes with Ovechkin (not that he needs anyone to get 40 goals and 90 points a season) next season?

by red army line on Mar 30, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that 8/91/16 has some great potential.

by mechanicsville on Mar 30, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t count on Fedorov being back next season, and I especially wouldn’t count on him being able to play top lines minutes.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seconded. Baxter was drafted to be the future Center for AO. At this point Semin is the most expendable of the Young Guns. Baxter can play well with Semin or AO but until we have a center for the future for AO I wouldn’t commit to moving Baxter to another line.

by Rob Parker on Mar 30, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Feds doesn’t come back, Backstrom is the most logical choice for top C, but who would work best as 2nd C?

by SethB on Mar 30, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Laich’s probably the best of guys who can play center, but I don’t know if his defense is up to par and he’d have less of a chance to crash the net as a center.

I see next year’s top six as Ovechkin-Backstrom-Fehr/Fleischmann and Laich-Nylander-Semin.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

assuming Nyls is still here. If no Nyls?

by SethB on Mar 30, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can’t imagine Nylander moving because I think the odds of a team wanting him and his contract and Nylander wanting to move to whatever team might take him are very small.

But if the team does find a way to move Nylander, my guess is that they’ll start looking for another scoring line center from outside the organization.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

After Nyls and Fedorov are gone, we need a hold-over until Baby Gus develops (or, long shot, Perrault overcomes the odds and cracks the NHL lineup).

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 30, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I second this emotion. And I don’t think they will wait to move Nyls. If there is one offseason FA category that I hope we till, it’s at C; with due respect to our Hershey guys, there is no #2 C there. Laich is much better on the wing where he can use his speed; he’s not a tempo setting guy and he’s not a top passer.

by bigonetimer on Mar 30, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nylander centering Semin = diabolical plot to keep Semin’s RFA contract down.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Mar 30, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about 8/21/16 ? Though I actually prefer 8/19/16 and 28/21/14

by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 30, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really think it’s better for Laich and the team if he plays the wing.

I personally have my doubts about Fleischmann in the top six, but I think Boudreau will find a way to get him there.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was thinking more short-term. Like this season. They sure looked good together on Friday.

by mechanicsville on Mar 30, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I second that motion! 30 goals easy if he’d just pull the trigger a bit more often. Was very happy to have been sporting the #19 jersey friday night.

by mechanicsville on Mar 30, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its all about confidence and going to the net for Backstrom. I’m fine with him shooting less frequently, as long as he shoots enough to make goalies and teams respect his shot.

If he makes that pass to Ovie and then takes three steps to the net he’s either going to get it back for a tap in or he’ll be there to punch in a ton of rebounds.

Count me as a Backstrom guy, and I’ve lived in Sweden so I had a special place for him before I knew how awesome he is.

But there are scary times in the future. When does he become eligible to have his contract renegotiated? Between him and Semin its going to be a supremely expensive summer next year. Especially if Backis puts up 100 pts.

by Sct112 on Mar 30, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Backstrom and Semin are both RFAs after next season. Under the current CBA, teams can negotiate extensions only in the last year, so the Caps can start talking to Backstrom about an extension on 7/1.

by David Getz on Mar 30, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope/expect GMGM will be on that from day 1. Get them both locked down before they can explode next year and demand 8 million apiece.

by Sct112 on Mar 31, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wore 52…guess everyone not wearing 28 or 87 or 17 was a winner…

by red army line on Mar 30, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree. Even in that Atlanta game, he was the finisher but Ovi was undoubtedly the catalyst. He is clearly capable, but I don’t see that “mean streak” that Ovi, and all the greats, have. But if his even keel is what keeps him from becoming that #1 guy, it’s also what makes him so dependable day to day. I’ll take that so long as Ovechkin and Semin can pot goals at will.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 30, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with katzistan – Backstrom has at times carried the team on his back – there have been a few nights when it seems like he was the only guy who could respond, make a play and get anyone, even Ovi the puck.

by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 30, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nicklas Backstrom: Vroom Vroom Party Starter

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by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions   3 recs

I’m sadly disappointed the Caps in-game production staff hasn’t riffed off this yet. It’s become quite a good meme for most Swedish players on other image/msg boards.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who was our 2nd center last year before Fedorov? Whatever the line combos were, they worked pretty well.

by red army line on Mar 30, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Nylander seemed to settle in there pretty well after until he went down mid-January. Between him and Fedorov, I’m not sure there was a clear second line center, though.

by David Getz on Mar 31, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right. Boyd Gordon got 2nd line minutes at time. Uh, no.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 31, 2009 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really the only hole in Nick’s game is the faceoff circle. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a 60% guy like Brind’Amour or Yanic Perreault, but if he does what Halpern did when he was starting out, and work on it, he can get to the 53-55% range, and that’d be fine.

Of course, we Caps fans are spoiled… when the team went to the Finals in 1998, the #3 face-off guy on the team was Andrei Nikolishin, who got a berth in the Olympics from the Russian team that year strictly due to his ability to win face-offs (he was a 56% face-off guy). Hunter and Oates were better, of course. And then after Hunter left, Trevor Linden came in, and Halpern went from a 48% guy to a 53% guy.

If I’m Bruce I’d have Fedorov start every power play so that the Caps have a better chance to start with the puck. And remember, on the power play, face off winning percentage goes up as there is one less opposing player to get the puck…

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 31, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions  

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