The Playoffs And Power Play Opportunities
by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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Conventional wisdom holds that when hockey's second season starts, NHL officials swallow their whistles in favor of letting the teams - and not possibly questionable calls - decide critically important games.
The funny thing about conventional wisdom, though, is that it's often wrong. Dead wrong. Just ask Tom Poti on this one.
In fact, power play opportunities per game in last year's playoffs were actually up overall with respect to the regular season, by nearly three percent. That's not a big increase, of course, but given the popular belief that power play chances disappear come playoff time, that there was any increase is worth noting, and it becomes downright interesting when you look at the post-lockout trend:
| Season | Reg. Season PP/G | Playoff PP/G | %Δ |
| 2005-06 |
11.7 | 11.6 | -0.8 |
| 2006-07 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.9 |
| 2007-08 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 2.6 |
| 2008-09 |
8.4* | - | - |
*Through Saturday
Besides the obvious decrease in power plays per game over the years ("The players are learning to play within the stricter enforcement of the rules," we're told, though our eyes tell us more obstruction is being permitted than was allowed in the early post-lockout NHL), power play opportunities per game have been holding relatively constant from regular season to the playoffs. Sure, calls per minute may be down given the longer overtimes, but this data certainly seems to buck that old conventional wisdom on whistle swallowing, which I would say died with the "old" NHL... except that in 2003-04, there were 8.5 power plays per game in both the regular and post seasons. [Sidenote: fewer power plays per game this season than in the last pre-lockout campaign? How'd that happen?]
So how does this impact the Caps? In a general sense, so long as the Caps are scoring on every fourth power play and killing roughly four out of every five penalties they commit, they stand to benefit from a constant or increased number of power play opportunities per game (so far on the season, they've averaged 4.09 PPs per game and 4.75 PKs per game, and have a +5 special teams goal differential). But in certain match ups, their power play might be better than others and/or their kill might be worse, so that is only so useful - if the Caps draw the Canadiens in the first round, they may very well be better off with a less tightly called series than if they face Florida.
More specifically, as the Caps (presumably) get more focused and motivated and demonstrate the kind of consistent effort at both ends of the ice that results in better discipline and more penalties drawn, it's good to know that that effort should be rewarded in the playoffs every bit as much as it is in the regular season, and it's equally important to be aware that no matter what they've heard, players shouldn't expect to get away with anything in late-April that they couldn't get away with in early-November.
Just ask Tom Poti.
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Nice data (as usual).
I have a hunch that the penalties numbers are higher in the first round, when there is a greater talent disparity between teams. But I have no data.
I wouldn’t doubt it. I’d also be interested in seeing calls by period/OT.
This is why we need a research assistant…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Why not? Clinton did.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I’d totally go for Virginia "Pepper" Potts as played by Gwyneth Paltrow, but then things would get awfully confusing around here.
by Stephen Pepper on Mar 31, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, it doesn’t assume that at all. As noted,
In a general sense, so long as the Caps are scoring on every fourth power play and killing roughly four out of every five penalties they commit, they stand to benefit from a constant or increased number of power play opportunities per game (so far on the season, they’ve averaged 4.09 PPs per game and 4.75 PKs per game, and have a +5 special teams goal differential).
Until the Caps are taking closer to five penalties for every four they’re drawing, they’re in good shape (by the numbers, at least).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Put another way, at 4.09 PPs per game and 4.75 PKs per game, the Caps are scoring 1.01 PPGs per game and allowing .95 PPGAs per game, which is obviously a net positive. If PPs across the board were cut in half, so to would be that per game margin.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ah, that’s clearer then. Now i get it. Still, I remain skeptical about the team’s discipline. 4.09/4.75 is a pretty big differential, and I’m not at all sure the team will do even that well in the playoffs.
by Gould Old Days on Mar 30, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting. I always assumed that refs just swallowed their whistles. I imagine the physical nature of the games adds to that perception.
The game that you linked in fact helps in debunking the “swallow their whistles” myth. Of the 5 goals, 3 were on the PP.
I’m not sure whether I am happy or sad about this (maybe neither?).
Theoretically, you should be happy – the game should be called the same way in April as in October, no?
Further to that point, the argument that the refs should just “let ’em play” and let the teams decide the winner rings hollow for me, as I am firmly of the belief that a ref who lets a penalty go uncalled has done more to decide the game than the one who blows his whistle.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Agreed. There’s no better evidence of this than in the refing in the Boston game last night. Boston got away with a few there, and it probably made the difference in terms of momentum. I could also point to a goalie interference non-call in a certain infamous game last postseason as evidence of that.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I think it really depends on the situation. If the ref let’s a blatant trip that causes a turn-over to a goal or a running over of the goalie go, that’s one thing. But if they let go on a guy clutching in his offensive zone and his team loses the puck anyway, whatever.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s a soccer standard. I’m not in favor of the “advantage” rule because hockey happens way too fast for a Ref to know if there has been an advantage given or taken at the very moment they have to call the PIM (or not call it). Anywhere on the ice can immediately lead to a goal if the Ref fails to call a PIM so I’d rather just have the Refs find a consistent standard and stick with it.
There are some similarities but with a delayed PIM the ref has committed to calling a foul. My point was just that the Refs should not have the discretion to try to guess how the play will turn out when they are deciding to make or not make a call. Since a soccer foul generally only results in a frozen ball and possession given to the non-fouling team an advantage rule is fine because the advantage accomplishes the same thing as the foul. In hockey a foul results in a change of manpower, not just possession. So a ref that sees “well that guy got hooked but held the puck” is not trading possession for possession, they are trading possession for man power.
Apologies if this isn’t the forum for it, but is this continued reduction in penalties a pro or con on the 2 ref system?
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
I don’t know that there’s a correlation.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Great Research....
But don’t harp on Poti’s tripping call. The only reason the trip he committed (and he did commit one) was called was because Erskine committed an even more obvious trip about one minute earlier that wasn’t called… If they had called Erskine’s, then the Caps PK would have had Poti on the ice…
Of course, if Huet doesn’t give up a very soft goal as the first goal for Philly in the game, the OT doesn’t happen…
by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 30, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I’m not harping on it, just using it as anecdotal evidence.
And too much happens during the course of a game to say that without that first goal, there is no OT.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
and if the refs call the obvious goaltender interference call on the one goal…
we could go back and forth for days, I’m sure the flyers fans might have a few to throw in there
F the Flyers fans. That series was so one-sidedly reffed the entire series, not just Game 7. Maybe there was a call or two that the Flyers could have gotten but ALL series the Refs were blowing calls. Matt Bradley stick to the face followed up by a Caps PIM and a Flyers PPG? Yeah, great call. I don’t think I need to replay the entire series but the Kozlov PIM v. the Thoresen no-PIM is probably the biggest reason the NHL should adopt J.P.‘s suggestion that one Ref team Ref’s an entire series. If the Ref that called Kozlov for a goalie interference was on the ice when Thoresen sent Shamo into Huet then Thoresen probably gets called.
Ok, so now you’ve convinced us that it doesn’t matter if the Caps coast into the playoffs, that the Caps’ll be ok if they keep overdepending on the power play, and that Jeff Schultz is really our go-to guy on defense. What is left for us to worry about, JP???
There’s plenty to worry about. :) To name a few:
- Lack of secondary scoring
- Tom Poti
- Lack of shooting from the blueline (except Mike Green)
- The fact the Caps are 1 and 5 lifetime in game 7s.
- The Caps have given up all sorts of big series leads.
- Ovi is what makes this team go, and if he doesn’t show, the team doesn’t.
We might see a silver lining in all of J.P.‘s recent posts, but I’m sure that we as Caps fans will find plenty to be nervous about.
I think the LAST thing I worry about is AO showing up for big games. In fact, I’d place worrying about that somewhere after ‘will the sun come up tomorrow.’
I think any worry about the AO doesn’t show comment was put to rest in the last three games of the playoffs last year.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
In fairness to me and my co-authors here, the first three items on your list are concerns that have been raised on this site – it’s not all sunshine and lolipops.
As for items #4 and 5 on your list, irrelevant.
As for item #6, see Tyler’s comment.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I guess the tongue and cheek nature of the comment didn’t shine through.
My point was that fans (not just Caps fans) will invent issues to be worried about in the absence of real problems.
Caps fans are famous for their negativity
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 30, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Caps choking history will only be irrelevant when they get the Cup. Until then it is a demon we will face every year.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
I disgree – it’s media-driven crap. Think Esa Tikkanen missing an open net has anything to do with Alex Semin or that a blown 3-1 lead or two against Pittsburgh has anything to do with this team? Of course not.
These Caps aren’t chokers until these Caps choke.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 30, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are we talking about the players or the fans? I am saying as fans, that stuff never dies until the Cup is held, despite your rational argument regarding the players.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
Oh, Christ. As a fan, they could be up three games to none and 5-0 with a minute left in the fourth game of the Finals and I’d have a lingering doubt about their ability to win the Cup.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Honestly, I worry about a lot, but I also realize that worry is what causes that kind of shit to brood. I’d rather just go with how I feel in my gut, and that is knowing that what we have on the ice is completely different than any Caps team we’ve seen before. It may not be the best we’ve had, but it’s the best I’ve seen, including the year we went to the finals, especially in terms of talent, and in the new NHL, that’s good. Also, while you’re worried about the PK, http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20092ALLAAAAll&sort=penaltyKillPercentage&viewName=summary is a fun little thing to look at. The team most people like to compare us to, we’re ahead of, and by no small number. And based on percentages alone, 104.9 > 103.1.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m sorry. I’m tired, and assumed PK would be there. My fault.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m still not completely convinced that we have a “lack of secondary scoring”. What team with “very good secondary scoring” are we comparing ourselves to?
I think when we’re talking secondary scoring, we’re talking even strength goals from guys other than “The Big Four,” and that kind of scoring has/had dried up recently.
Look at the number of ES goals from Kozlov, Fedorov, Fleischmann, Fehr, Laich, Nylander, the 4th line and the entire blueline other than 52 over the past month and it’s not impressive. Is that necessarily fatal? No. But it hasn’t been there.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Hey, remember the time we had 3 d-men get 20 goals or something like that? Oh, man.
Yeah, I’m not really expecting goals from Fedorov and Nylander, though. I’d prefer assists.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, I’m glad they’re allowing the clutch stuff again. I have absolutely hated about 50% of the rule changes, and that so many penalties were getting called. I’d rather watch a 5v5 game with a few close non-calls than a game decided on a PP. I may be in the minority, and I’m ok with that.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
You mean, in my mind? Or the league’s?
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
In yours. I mean, why blame the rules when the players know them. Once the rules are clear, it’s the players who commit penalties, not the rules themselves.
Oh. It’s not that I don’t have a problem with the players for taking the penalties. No, they should know the rules. I just don’t like the rules, for example, the no line change after an icing, or the dumping the puck out rule. It’s just to get more power plays, a part of the game that I personally find boring. Same with the “oh, you touched his body with your stick, Penalty”. If you hook someone down, go ice skiing, or prevent a goal, call it. If not, and the hook doesn’t hardly affect play, let it go. That kind of crap is what I’m saying I don’t like. I’m not saying the players are escapable for not knowing rules.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Just knowing the rules is not enough of an explanation. We all know the speed limit but we all speed. If the “rule” was that going 60 in a 55 was a felony you would probably decry the rule, rather than just saying “well you know the rule so it is fair.” I don’t have a problem with the rule changes, I mostly disagree with WM, but your characterization of the issue is a little too simplistic. The rules should be formed to determine the proper scope of how the game is to be played. Your response to WM should focus on how you think the game should be played instead of just “well everyone knows the rules.”
by Rob Parker on Mar 30, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You all speed. >:3
Yeah, in all honesty, I don’t mind when people disagree with my opinions on that. Thank God people bring in different ideas than mine, because sometimes I scare myself with mine. But, yeah. I’ve always preferred low scoring, good defense hockey, and sometimes good defense meant grabbing a guy behind the net in a pin. Pinning is pretty much out of the game now, and I liked it. It used to be that if you launched the puck out of the zone over the boards, it was good defense. Now, it’s a stupid penalty. What I said when they changed it, and what I’m saying now, is that Soccer and baseball are doing just fine, and they’ve never since I’ve been alive redefined what’s fair or foul, or given a free kick for kicking the ball out of bounds (Indoor soccer excluded).
But, yeah. If a player knows the rules, he should follow them. But in all honesty, all of these players on defense were trained from day one to get the puck out. Priority one, get the puck out. If you flipped it over the boards, oh well. Now, they’re penalized for it. It’ll take a few years until that crap completely gets eradicated. My opinion – You don’t want it to go out? Put a bubble dome over it.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
A different perspective
What the league was primarily cracking down on was the restraining fouls. Initially this caused a rise in penalties, but by now the players should be adjusting and the penalties per game should be near pre-lockout levels. Unfortunately, the initial rise in PP duped people into thinking scoring was back, which is mostly isn’t.
If we ever return to the days where goalie equipment was meant to protect the goalie and not THE NET, Ovi is good for a c-note.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
Is that Al Jansen? Either way, it’s an awesome picture. I want to play goal like that.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 30, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Hard to argue with the latter part of that, but I’m not sold that they’re calling the game the same way they did initially out of the lockout. Not that I think that’s bad, mind you – the first two months of hockey after they returned was devoid of flow and little more than a set of special teams exhibitions.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yes, and I probably should mention I ripped that from www.caps-gallery.blogspot.com.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
Yeah, you ever watch those games from the 80s when the Oil was putting up 10-spots regularly? The goalies look barely more protected than the skaters. It’s hilarious.
If you can ever grab a tape of the famous Miracle on Manchester game, when the Kings came back from 5-0 in the 3rd period, you’ll see Mario Lessard not only look tiny, but like one of the worst goalies ever to play the game. If OV played against goalies like that, he’d have a hat trick every game on his bad nights.
I agree with a lot of what you said except for the goalie equipment thing. Yeah, a lot of goalies use larger pads to protect the net (Manny Legace) but the equipment changes by and large serve to protect the goalie. Look at both knees in that picture. You think you could walk if AO hit you in either one of those exposed spots with a shot? The NHL has to find the happy medium but goalie safety should not be sacrificed in the name of scoring. I’m sure the goalies in the audience probably agree with that sentiment (I don’t play goalie, though).
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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