Pick 'Em: First Round Opponent

by David Getz on Mar 27, 2009 2:00 PM EDT in Pick 'Ems

The NHL playoffs are less than three weeks away, and for a Capitals team that is seeming to have difficulty getting up for games, and the fan base tried of watching them lose to the Atlantas, Torontos, and Los Angeleses of the world, the postseason can't come soon enough. Now that a Capitals playoff berth is officially secured and a division lead seems ready to follow, and in an effort to fight increasing apathy about the season's last couple of weeks, we figured now might be a good time to consider who the Caps might face in the first round, a topic that has been looked at before here at Japers' Rink, though not for a couple weeks. Since then some teams have gotten hot (Pittsburgh) and others have faltered (Montreal; Florida) and there has been some pretty significant standings shuffling.

As we see it, there are five teams the Caps could conceivably face in the first round:

	Carolina	Florida	Montreal	New York	Pittsburgh
Record	41-28-7	36-28-11	38-27-9	39-27-9	40-27-8
Points Per Game	1.17	1.12	1.15	1.16	1.17
Last 10	7-1-2	3-4-3	4-4-2	6-3-1	7-1-2
GF/Game	2.87	2.67	3.01	2.57	3.13
GA/Game	2.80	2.69	3.04	2.72	2.96
Goal Diff/Game	0.07	-0.02	-0.03	-0.15	0.17
Powerplay Success	17.7%	15.7%	17.8%	14.4%	17.1%
PP Per Game	4.53	3.75	4.55	4.23	4.37
Penalty Kill	79.3%	82.4%	81.9%	87.7%	81.8%
Times SH Per Game	3.68	3.85	4.55	4.00	4.24
Save Percentage	.907	.921	.906	.912	.905

Here's how the Capitals performed against each of their potential opponents this season:

	Carolina	Florida	Montreal	New York	Pittsburgh
Record*	2-3-1	3-2-0	2-1-1	3-0-1	3-0-1
GF/Game	1.83	3.00	3.00	3.50	4.50
GA/Game	3.17	2.80	2.25	2.50	2.75
Goal Diff/Game	-1.34	0.20	0.75	1.00	1.75
Powerplay Success	24.0%	25.0%	21.4%	20.0%	29.4%
Powerplays	25	12	14	15	17
PP Per Game	4.17	2.40	3.5	3.75	4.25
Penalty Kill	92.0%	78.6%	75.0%	92.9%	73.9%
Times Shorthanded	25	28	20	14	23
Times SH/ Game	4.17	5.6	5.00	3.50	5.75
Save Percentage	.893	.868	.931	.910	.908
Save Pct. Against	.949	.906	.903	.888	.870
Last Game	L, 4-1	W, 3-0	SOW, 4-3	SOL, 5-4	SOL, 4-3

*For the purposes of the head-to-head records, all games that went to the shootout are considered ties.

Poll

So...who've you got?

Carolina

27 votes

Florida

56 votes

Montreal

121 votes

New York

171 votes

Pittsburgh

112 votes

487 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Habs!

1) Montreal: The way they have been playing, not having a top goalie, and the way Ovechkin plays against them would be a nice match up for the Caps
2) A month ago the Rangers would be a good match up, but with their coaching change and other additions they are now a much better team than before the recent changes.
3) Anyone but Pitt. Not that the Pens should/would be favoured, but it would be a tough/emotional series that even if the caps won it could take a lot out of their tanks going forward. After all the playoffs are a war of attrition.

by Fauxrumors on Mar 27, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with you about Montreal, for their goaltender. They’re the only team that, IMO, doesn’t have a goalie who can get hot and steal a series.

I’d least like to see Carolina – they’ve played the Caps well and are playing well right now. Pittsburgh is a close second in that category though.

by David Getz on Mar 27, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Florida

The scariest part of their team is Vokoun. Ho hum.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 27, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

I voted the Habs, they give me the least apprehensive feeling.

by SethB on Mar 27, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

Rangers… they don’t score a lot of goals, and they have a reputation for blowing leads (not just a 4-0 lead to the Caps, but they coughed up a 4-1 lead last night to Atlanta. The only reason they’re in the playoff spot now is because of how well they were playing in October and November…

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 27, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

But if anyone can steal a playoff series, you’d have to think it’d Lundqvist.

by David Getz on Mar 27, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

And considering we haven’t seen them since they overhauled everything, I’d rather face the devils (NPI) I knew.

"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."

by Bald Pollack on Mar 27, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

What I saw last night was the Rangers having a 4-1 lead late in the second on Atlanta and giving all of it back.. and then a temper tantrum thrown by their coach in front of the media… Whoever the Rangers play in the post season (if they make it!) should dispatch them pretty easily.

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 27, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

It comes down to Habs, Cats or Rags (I guess PHI is locked into the 4/5, and I’d rather not face Carolina or Pittsburgh, hot as they’ve been).

Of those three teams, Lundqvist is the only guy I see as capable of stealing a series on his own, so they’re out.

Florida would have to play pretty well to get into sixth, so I’ll pass on them, and take…

Montreal. The weight of the pressure will kill them. They should be an easy out in the playoffs.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

Addendum: It doesn’t matter who the Caps play. It matters how the Caps play. They can beat or lose to any of those teams in a best-of-seven.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

that is a true fact

…which is why I picked the Pens. I think we match up really well with them in terms of systems, and MAF, darling that he is, puts no fear in my heart in a 7 gamer. Plus, I’d rather dispatch PIT early before they get up a head of steam in April.

by bigonetimer on Mar 27, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

As opposed to those false facts. :)

by Sct112 on Mar 27, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Did Ken Wregget or Ron Tugnutt ever put fear in your heart? Both Pens goalies who beat the Caps in the playoffs…

by katzistan on Mar 28, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Any NHL goalie can get hot at the right time…

Wregget did alright that post season 7-2 2.31GAA .930 SV%

Tugnutt did better 6-5 1.76 GAA .945 SV%

by Yoshietree on Mar 28, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

HEH, you said Tugnutt…

by SethB on Mar 28, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Now there’s a truth.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Mar 27, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I think there should be a “it doesn’t matter because any team can be dangerous in the playoffs” option…

I’d rather not face Carolina…otherwise I think of good and bad factors in facing any one of these teams.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Mar 27, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Oh…and in the end I voted for Pittsburgh, if for no other reason than a Washington/Pittsburgh matchup would probably provide the most “off the ice” drama.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Mar 27, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

"off the ice" drama

Exactly the reason I don’t want them to face the Pens in the 1st round. It will be a media circus, and I’d prefer for this collection of Caps, who haven’t won a series before, to get one or two rounds under their belt before having to deal with all that extra off-the-ice crap.

I chose Florida.

by Cluster on Mar 27, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree all teams can be dangerous in the playoffs but I don’t think they’re all equally dangerous.

by David Getz on Mar 27, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Pens

I just want them to erase the demons that linger in many caps fans minds and to shut their smelly, poor, rude fan base up.

by zephyr on Mar 27, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

Btw, color me surprised at how good the Caps PK has been against Carolina (in the largest sample up there).

Also, the PP differential (ours vs. theirs) against Florida makes me vomit in my mouth. What the hell are they doing going shorthanded 5.6 times per game against that team?

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

You’re not kidding. I had no idea it was that bad.

Our PK is horrid against Montreal. Let’s hope if we get Montreal we can get ‘er done at ES, because otherwise we’ll get torched.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Mar 27, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Our PK is horrid against Montreal

The goood news? It’s a tiny sample. One more kill there and it’s 80% instead of 75%.

The bad news? The Caps’ PK is relatively horrid over the 75-game sample that has been the season so far.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

And to me, that’s one of the reasons to want to not face Pitt – they draw a crap load of penalties ~~(legit and otherwise)~~ and have a potentially lethal PP now that it includes Gonchar, Kunitz and Geurin to go along with the guys they had before.

Do not want.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, the damage was done in the first two meetings. The Habs are 0-for-10 in the last two games between the teams.

by David Getz on Mar 27, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

One of the interesting storylines in a Habs series would be JT against his old team (and in his first game back in Montreal, if I’m not mistaken).

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted Florida...

…it was a tossup between them and Montreal. After that, I’ll take NYR, Pitt, and Carolina in that order. I want no part of Carolina right now. We’re not solid enough at even strength to handle that.

Maybe some changes get made.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Mar 27, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

I voted for Montreal, but I don’t think they’re a realistic candidate to get the 6th seed, and I don’t think the Caps have a real shot at #2.

Of the teams remaining….hmmmm…..I’d most like to see the Rangers. I think they’ve been outperforming their true talent level, as opposed to the Penguins (although the nearly 30% PP rate v. Pitt is enticing). The things the Caps do poorly – kill penalties, in particular – are weakspots of the Rangers too. And I generally think the Caps are a better team.

I think the Caps would handle Carolina (as long as they’re not in cruise mode, that is) but not as easily.

I am hoping like hell not to see the Pens until the conference finals.

by fat_daddyo on Mar 27, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

If the Caps end up drawing the Rags, no doubt my hatred of Avery will only grow throughout the series.

by Moonage Daydream on Mar 27, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

heh. You think Danny Briere was bad. Avery is going to try to hang up shelves in our crease.

by bigonetimer on Mar 27, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

He’d be a pain in the ass, and you’d hate him for sure, but they’re just not that good, particularly up front.

Their goalie is, I admit, worrisome. But the guys in front of him are so pedestrian, I think the best they might do is push the Caps to 6 games. The Caps ought to just overwhelm them with their talent. As long as they’re playing hard, of course.

Which they will be, right?

by fat_daddyo on Mar 27, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

God I hope so….

by SethB on Mar 27, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

You know what.

Screw the history. Screw what has happened in the past and the storylines that lead up to it.

Give me the Pens.

If the Caps dispatch the Pens, the sky is the limit.

Officially out of the minors...Capitals Kremlin.com!."

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 27, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions

Here’s the problem I have with facing the Pens: they have the firepower, particularly on the powerplay, to bet on a roll and hang 30+ goals on the Caps in a 7 game series. Awfully difficult to overcome that.

I do think the Caps are a better team by an identifiable – but as yet unquantified – margin. While I’m on the topic, hockey needs some cool metrics. Corsi rating is a nice start but I don’t have the confidence in it that I do with, say, VORP, or Win Shares. I’m not clever enough to devise a WS formula for hockey, but the sport could desperately use it.

DMG, you would be a candidate to cook something like that up…

by fat_daddyo on Mar 27, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

The Pens have been a scar on this franchise for nearly 20 years. If the Caps want to win a Cup, one way or another, they will likely have to go through the Pens to do it, and beating a hated rival in the playoffs will provide an emotiona boost that is unparralled to winning just any series.

I know the stats, but as B.B. said earlier about HSBC arena and the Sabres, “it’s time to exorcize some demons.”

Officially out of the minors...Capitals Kremlin.com!."

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 27, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Hockey Analytics

This website might be what you’re looking for. Very interesting, very mathy.

The metric that fits what you’re looking for from this site would be Player Contribution. It is measured in two metrics, PC-Defense and PC-Offense.

Click on the 2008 NHL Review to see last year’s numbers. Worth taking a look.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 27, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks. Will report back with my thoughts.

by fat_daddyo on Mar 27, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice.

Initial reaction: the most important player on the ice is the goalie, which makes sense intuitively.

Initial reaction two: AO with a +24 defensive contribution: stuff that in your pipe and smoke it, all you who carp about him not backchecking enough (and, yes, Mr McGuire, I’m looking at you)

by fat_daddyo on Mar 27, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d love to, but I don’t have to time right now. Sounds like maybe a project for over the summer when the team isn’t playing.

Puck Prospectus (the hockey branch of baseball prospectus) recently wrote an article on a stat they’d developed that is similar to VORP: link.

by David Getz on Mar 27, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Veeeeeery Interesting....

Both the Hockey Analytics PC metrics and the Puck Propsectus “Val” metrics have Crosby in the top 40 at best.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 28, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Also of note

Thomas Vokoun is a top 5 goalie by all measures, and flies completely under the radar. Which makes my above post, well, stupid.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Mar 28, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Habbies

Just because I want them and their 100-years story done

"Swinging and missing to me is like 'Jesus, what happened?'" Scott Hatteberg

by Razr on Mar 27, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

The Caps would wipe the Habs off the ice without much of a headache, I think, but the odds of getting them are way low at this point.

by fat_daddyo on Mar 27, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s exactly why I want the Caps to face them even though it ain’t likely ;)

"Swinging and missing to me is like 'Jesus, what happened?'" Scott Hatteberg

by Razr on Mar 27, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

Screw it, I took Carolina. When the Caps think they’ll coast, they lose. When the Caps think they have a tough game, they get up for it. I want to play the team that’s kicked our ass this season so the Caps play with a bit of fear in them. If we can’t beat the ‘Canes, we don’t deserve the Cup.

by boz on Mar 27, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions