Don't Bring Me Down Bruce: Evaluating Boudreau on the eve of the playoffs
by D'ohboy on Mar 26, 2009 5:47 PM EDT
26 comments
This was originally a response to a FanPost by fat daddyo. To paraphrase his post, he suggested, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the Capitals might want to consider firing coach Bruce Boudreau as a means of snapping the team out of its funk prior to the playoffs. The inspiration for this idea was the Devils' firing of coach Robbie Ftorek prior to the 2000 Stanley Cup playoffs, which the Devils went on to win.
The general response to this suggestion was, to put it mildly, overwhelmingly negative, and I was no different. However, I sensed a feeling in the comments that I've seen before, sometimes here at the Rink, but more frequently on places like the Caps Insider responses. The gist of this sentiment is, "In Bruce We Trust." Essentially, Boudreau has done such an amazing job turning around the fortunes of this recently moribund franchise, that his decisions are largely unquestioned. It's as though many fans have chosen to blindly trust him. While I think Boudreau is an outstanding coach, and I would never suggest that he be removed from his position, I also think that blind faith tends to leave one in the dark. I order to counter what I termed the "rose-colored optimism" of many Caps fans toward Boudreau, I wrote the following analysis.
Boudreau has definite weaknesses as a coach. I still think it would be ludicrous to fire him, but there are several issues that I think need addressing.
1. Over the course of the season, this team has essentially become entirely dependent upon the PP for offense. This is especially odd because at the beginning of the season, the PP was struggling and the Caps were monstrous 5-5. What worries me about this is that: a) there are fewer penalties in the playoffs, and b) other teams have figured this out and focus a great deal on not taking penalties when playing the Caps.
2. Closely tied to point 1, the Caps simply refuse to go to the net consistently as a team. This makes opposing goalies look better than they really are, while depriving the team of the “ugly” secondary goals that every team needs to win consistently, particularly in the playoffs. Moreover, going to the net and other high-traffic areas is a sure-fire way to draw penalties, but the Caps don’t do it and thereby decrease their scoring opportunities even further.
This isn’t a new problem; it’s been a constant sore point in Boudreau’s post-game comments, in on-air analysis by commentators, and it’s a frequent topic of discussion here at the Rink. So if the problem is clearly identified, why hasn’t it been fixed by this point? My feeling is that the fault for this is one part personnel (GMGM) and two parts coaching. It’s no secret that the Caps are loaded with skill players, particularly European skill players. The style of hockey they grew up playing, and that they excel at, is not the ol’ North American “chuck it at the net and whack at the rebound” style of hockey (AKA The Esposito-Smyth Method). That being said, that Caps’ third and fourth lines are made up primarily of North American players who excel at just that kind of hockey. Guys like Brooks Laich, and at times Eric Fehr, who Mike Vogel once told me would be the “poor-man’s Tomas Holmstrom,” have shown the willingness (albeit with sporadic execution) to go to the net. However, neither of these guys gets sufficient ice time, particularly on the power play. How often have we complained about watching Tomas Fleischmann skate ineffectually around the perimeter for 15-17 minutes per game while Fehr dutifully skates his 11 minutes of even-strength time? If it’s obvious to us, it’s obvious to the video scouts and the coaching staff. . . and yet nothing has changed.*
(*See Below)
To connect this point to JP’s post this morning about Tom Poti, the unwillingness to go to the net also impacts the defensemen’s ability to score. When players go to the net, teams tend to collapse defensively around them. This does two things. First, it leaves the points with time and space to take well-aimed slapshots. Second, it effectively doubles the traffic in front of the net, since a defenseman presents just as much of an impediment to his goalie’s vision as the forward he’s trying to guard. The net result of this is more shots by defensemen, more traffic in front of the goalie, more “seeing-eye” goals, more deflections, and more penalties drawn. The Caps just plain don’t do any of this with consistency.
3. The penalty kill is still an area of weakness, and it has been all season. While it’s true that many of the Caps’ best penalty killers have been injured (such as Poti and now Gordon), this isn’t an excuse. Many teams with far less talent manage to kill penalties more effectively than the Caps. This is especially problematic given point 4. . .
4. The Caps continually take stupid, lazy penalties. We all know exactly what I’m talking about. Certain players on this team (Semin, Nylander, Jurcina and Erskine) take an enormous amount of lazy stick infractions, particularly in the offensive or neutral zone. For all the talk by Boudreau this season, the situation doesn’t really seem to have improved and nobody’s ice time changed as a result. Yes, Nylander doesn’t play much anymore, but that has more to do with the fact that he’s just generally useless in this system and less to do with his stick infractions.
5. In part, some of these unnecessary penalties can be chalked up to what I see as Boudreau’s biggest weakness: line matching. When players are caught out against the wrong line, they do whatever it takes to play defense, which often results in penalties. I don’t know if Bruce just doesn’t care to match lines at all until the 2nd half of the 3rd period, or if he’s just really bad at matching personnel, but his line choices often leave me scratching my head. This is most pronounced at home where the Caps have the second change. For example, in the last home loss, I counted no less than three times when the Caps rolled out the 4th line of Bradley-Gordon-Brashear against the Crosby-Malkin line. That was an egregiously poor decision which led to at least one goal against and a penalty. Those kinds of mistakes can torpedo a playoff run.
I’m certainly not saying that Bruce should be fired, but I think that we should collectively take off our rose-colored glasses and realize that, while he’s a good coach, there is a lot of room for improvement. I for one am particularly concerned about the problem areas, such as the PK and traffic in front of the net, that have shown zero to little improvement over the course of the season. There seems to be a pervasive attitude of “In Bruce We Trust,” and I’m not sure that’s totally justified. The guy has a little over one year of NHL coaching under his belt – it’s not like he’s Toe Blake, Al Arbour or Scotty Bowman.
Now, before we all go and get overly pessimistic, I’m now going to caveat my own posting by saying that I think part of the reason that the Caps have been so inconsistent since the All-Star break is not necessarily Boudreau’s fault. First, this team has had a playoff spot all but locked up since New Year’s. We’ve seen what kind of deleterious effect that can have on teams like Boston and even San Jose to some extent.
Second, and I think this is probably more important, the Caps haven’t had any prolonged periods without games since the break. Boudreau constantly stresses how important consistent practices are for getting the team to adhere to his system, so it would follow that the Caps would benefit from a break. Looking at the schedule, they had one three-day break after the All-Star Game in January and one more in February. The results after those breaks?
January= 4 wins (Detroit, Ottawa, NJ and Fla) 1 loss (LA), 23 goals for, 14 goals against.
February= 6 wins (Tampa, Fla, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Boston) 2 losses (Colorado and Philly) and one shootout loss in NY to the Rangers. 33 goals for, 27 goals against.
Crucially, after that brutal stretch of games with just two two-day breaks in February ending with the win in Boston, the Caps proceeded to poop the proverbial bed, losing their next four in a row to Florida, Carolina, Toronto and Pittsburgh (in the shootout), with 8 goals for and 17 goals against.
(BTW, if you’re checking my numbers, they may look odd, because I’m counting shootout winning goals. I don’t know if the NHL does this officially or not. I was using the TSN.ca team schedule calendar.)
So what does this (extremely) long-winded post mean? Primarily, Bruce should be treated like any other coach. He's not Hockey Moses, come to lead us out of the hockey desert after 35 years. Heck, he's not even Scotty Bowman. He's human, and just like the rest of us he makes mistakes. His team will have shortcomings that reflect those mistakes. We don't need to get on him for every little thing, but we should most definitely call him out when there are glaring issues with this team that have been evident since the beginning of the season. Have events (injuries, illness, schedule) conspired to make his task more difficult? Surely they have, but the NHL doesn't engrave the excuses of the runners-up on the Stanley Cup.
So as to not finish on a down note, as Caps fans, we should take heart in two things. First, Bruce is clearly his own man and he's confident enough in himself to admit mistakes. Remember the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Nylander debacle of a line before the trading deadline? Haven't seen that one since, and good riddance. I can think of any number of other instances, but the news from today's practice is more important: after months of harping on his players to create traffic in front of the net, Boudreau finally put his money where his mouth was and bumped Eric Fehr up to the top line, Brooks Laich to the second, and dropped Flash and Kozlov to the third. What happens on the power play remains to be seen, but that's surely a good sign.
The second reason for optimism is that the Caps have had two two-day breaks this week, which allowed them to get some practice time in. After Friday night's game though, the Caps have four full days of rest and practice to get ready for the final stretch. History shows us that the Caps usually play Bruce's system "to a T" when coming out of these types of long breaks. At the very least, we should see some good hockey, but personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Caps put up an excellent record down the stretch. I think that 5-2, or 4-1-2 might be well within reach. Either record would give the Caps 107 points on the year, which would tie them for the Caps' all time record for points in a season, set by the 1985-86 team.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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Can’t add any more to it. Rec’d.
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Waaay too long dude.
I can only add that he is too loyal to certain guys sometimes when a kick-in-the-pants (like a benching, reduced time, etc.) is in order. And by “certain guys”, I mean Flash.
The keyboard is mightier.
by breed16 on Mar 26, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I hate having to think for long stretches at a time. ;)
Great post and rec’d.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Mar 26, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice work D'oh
I’ll take the warts, big belly and a .650 win%. Good fit for the team’s ethos, as opposed to say, Mike Keenan.
by bigonetimer on Mar 26, 2009 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very good post. I agree with you wholeheartedly.
I find myself often wondering where the accountability is this season. When Boudreau came up from Hershey we all said "Thank Heaven, a guy who will take the team to task for their mistakes" – and he did. But this year he seems less likely to reward god play and less likely to punish poor play. I really think if he toughened up a little in that regard, the other problems would all but solve themselves.
by David M. Getz on Mar 26, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. This being primarily a young bunch that isn’t going to police itself means they need a strong hand to do so for them when necessary. Not a Keenan-type but a guy that establishes order more clearly and is no-nonsense when the time calls for it. Boudreau seems a bit disorganized in both regards and a bit too much of a player’s coach. Lingering bad habits seem to be creeping into their play all too regularly.
Many of the problem areas have been apparent for quite a while and the team being fairly successful up until a mediocre March despite those areas of weakness seems to have led to them being glossed over rather than more seriously tackled. Eventually, though, the microscope of playoff hockey will be directed at their overall game and to this point there’s a lot of areas that could be improved.
by Langway on Mar 26, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I’m not mistaken, hasn’t Boudreau put them through a couple of bag skates after bad efforts this year? Does anyone else remember this, or am I off on my own planet?
by D'ohboy on Mar 26, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has at least once…and that’s probably enough for one season. I think the bigger issue is the players taking heed of what Boudreau is emphasizing. It seems a lot of the time it just isn’t getting through to them.
But we’re now beginning to see Boudreau’s line-up decisions reflect a more strategic focus as the playoffs are on the horizon. Hopefully those combinations will pay off with not just to more of a playoff flavor of offense but more secondary scoring as well.
by Langway on Mar 26, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There have been a couple of times that Bruce publicly took the team to task, including after the Sabres 5-0 game and at least one other time, and both times the result was a winning streak of note.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 26, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First….great post.
Second…yes there are reasons for concern, but I’ll stick with my original assessments from the earlier posts. Granted, maybe I have sipped at the BB flavoured kool-aid. But the way I look at it, the Caps have the fourth best record in the entire NHL. Yes, there are areas of the team that concern me…but they’re longest losing streak of the season stands at 4 games (3 if you don’t count the skills competition loss).
TO me that speaks wonders, not only about BB, but about the make-up of the entire team.
by Yoshietree on Mar 26, 2009 6:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
To everyone who managed to make it all the way through, or just skimmed most of it. Thanks for the rec’s as well. Also, thanks to fat_daddyo, Yoshietree and DMG for making me think more about what I wrote.
by D'ohboy on Mar 26, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
again, fine work
here is an interesting take on the NHL coaching carousel (with a nice bit on Boudreau towards the end) …
by bigonetimer on Mar 26, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a fine post and I think BB has faults, but I’m going to keep my rose-colored glasses on for now. Why? The Caps were the worst team in the league when BB became their coach. They’ve now been something like the 4th best team in the league over a season and a half and BB has cultivated the young talent on this roster very well. Mike Green may very well be the favorite to win the Norris right now and is having the best goal-scoring season for a defenseman in what, 20 years? Ovie might win his 2nd straight Hart/Pearson/Richard/whatever. Backstrom has become one of the best centers in the game. Maybe Hanlon was that bad, but I think it’s easy to look at the Caps and say “they have great players” without realizing that many of them have only discovered greatness under BB. The fact that he won the Calder Cup in Hershey suggests a strong correlation between the two for me.
My bottom line is that BB isn’t perfect, but nobody would be a better coach for this team. And I think it’s somewhat telling that we as a fanbase are now expecting something closer to perfection as a result of the strides this team has taken with BB at the helm.
by grapejoos on Mar 26, 2009 7:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All fine points. My only response is that you don’t seem to have blind faith – you’ve got good reasoning behind your belief. I’d say that’s being reasonably optimistic, rather than blindly so. (I’d probably put myself in the same camp.) Still though, I’m splitting hairs.
by D'ohboy on Mar 26, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must admit, after writing that reply and going back and reading your post, I felt kind of dumb for arguing against objectivity. I don’t have any problem with the points you made or the general concept of criticism :) To the extent I had a point, it was more a misplaced response to the “fire BB” thread. We’ve all quickly become accustomed to the idea of the Caps as a team that should win every game, regardless of opponent, but it’s easy to forget how truly abysmal the team was pre-BB, despite having a very similar roster.
by grapejoos on Mar 27, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s funny you mention Green. I think of BB the same way I do Greener. Coaches get better with age, and so do defensemen. For them both to be so good already, and to know that the odds are they’re going to keep getting better… that’s a nice thought.
by Gould Old Days on Mar 27, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m of the opinion the recent “slide” is more of a result of the flu bug combined with a bit of laziness. Now, at the start of the year, we seemed to get off on the wrong foot, because at the end of last year, we won 12 out of 13 or something. I think we’re kind of spoiled because of that late season run, and we forget that teams have bad games. Even the Wings, who are in the hunt for the Presidents trophy, got pasted twice by Nashville and once by Columbus. Would you rather win most of your games, but when you lose, get blown out, or win most of your games, and lose a bunch of eyegougers?
I’ve faith that Boudreau has a knack of getting things done when he needs to. Is he the number one super coach of all time? No. But hockey’s on ice results aren’t a business where all 30 teams can say they are doing well. There’s 29 other teams that WANT us to fail, and make it their job to beat us when they play us. The fan in me thinks it’s bullshit we’re not 75-0. The realist in me knows that 45-23-7 is fucking awesome, and considering where we were last Thanksgiving, I’m happy.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 26, 2009 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have. . .
The facts of life, the facts of life.
I tried to note the fact that the recent illness played a role, but I totally understand if you missed it, because it was tucked in there at the bottom.
What I probably didn’t make clear enough, though, is that while I’m annoyed and slightly perturbed by the current slide, I’m not “OHMYGODMYHAIRSONFIRE” freaking out, either. You take the good, you take the bad, like the theme song says. :)
My concern is about the underlying trends on this team that have been there all year. They’re more clearly manifested during the down times, of course, but they’re always there. How many times have the Caps won this year where you thought to yourself, “Man, they didn’t play very well, but we pulled it out because we’re really talented/lucky?” I know that I can’t count the number with just two hands.
I worry about their tendency to “turn it on” when they need to. I’m also a fan of the Avalanche (sigh), and after their Cup run in 1996, that team also used to decide when to turn it on. As a result, they didn’t win the Cup again until Bourque and Bob Hartley lit a fire under their ass in 2001. Mind you, this was a team that had at least 4 sure-fire hall of famers on it and numerous perennial all-stars.
You’re right that the other 29 teams want us to fail (in the military, they always say, “the enemy has a vote”), but the Caps have shown this year, with their record against the top teams, that the only team that can consistently stop them is. . . themselves. And, while I think Boudreau is an awesome coach, when I see the team continually failing to get up for games against lesser opponents, taking bad penalties and flat-out refusing to go to the net with authority game in and game out, I think that some of the blame for that has to fall on him.
by D'ohboy on Mar 26, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
D'oh
One more thing: I’m the same way – the fan in me hates to watch them lose even once. I’m different though, because the realist in me looks at the bad penalty killing, dumb penalties, over-reliance on the PP, lack of consistent effort and unwillingness to go to the net and get the ugly goals and I see just one thing:
First round exit.
I hope to Christ I’m wrong.
by D'ohboy on Mar 26, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bruce definitely has his faults. His failure to punish/reward players is my biggest gripe, but he’s also really been hamstrung by the lack of strong leadership in the lockerroom. As coach, he can only do so much. Cup winning coaches always seem to have a strong leader to fill the gap between the guys on the bench and the guys behind it. Bruce doesn’t seem to have that guy.
When the guy that has the most experience, the most rings, and the unquestioning respect of his teammates says “But our job is not to simply play well in the regular season. We are looking beyond that.” in FEBRUARY!!! Bruce is going to struggle to counter that and raise the effort against teams like Atlanta, and TB, and Toronto.
by Sct112 on Mar 27, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Btw, I don’t know why this bothers me (and apologies in advance to D’ohboy for bringing it up), but as a personal rule of sorts I find that trying not to insult your potential readers in your title is a good idea. Obviously it doesn’t change the substance of the post, but I’d have preferred “A Closer Look At Bruce Boudreau” or something that didn’t tell me as the reader that I’m some starry-eyed dipshit.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Comment duly noted. I guess I was trying to clearly tie it back into the posts that I had written before, while simultaneously trying to write something that caught the eye (since my last post about faceoffs and faceoff statistics generated only yawns).
I really didn’t mean the title as an insult to anyone on here. In fact, the whole reason that I read this blog daily and actually participate in the discussion is that I find most everyone on here highly intelligent, knowledgeable about hockey, thoughtful and considerate.
Also, for what it’s worth, I think that I was wearing the same glasses for all of last season and much of this one, with the exception of the line-matching issue.
I’ll throw another title up there.
by D'ohboy on Mar 27, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bueno. Just a pet peeve, I guess, and I have no doubt you didn’t intend it the way I read it.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 27, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
66 | 44 | 13 | 9 | 97 |
|
Atlanta
|
65 | 28 | 27 | 10 | 66 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
65 | 27 | 27 | 11 | 65 |
|
Florida
|
65 | 27 | 28 | 10 | 64 |
|
Carolina
|
65 | 27 | 31 | 7 | 61 |
(updated 3.10.2010 at 12:59 AM EST)
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