What's Going On, Tom?
by J.P. on Mar 26, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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In two seasons at Boston University, Tom Poti racked up 63 points in 76 games and in 1998 became the first blueliner to be named Beanpot Most Valuable Player in nearly two decades (and no defenseman has received the honor since).
The following fall he joined the Edmonton Oilers and was named to the 1998-99 NHL All-Rookie Team on the strength of a five goal, sixteen assist, plus-10 season in which he saw 19:33 of ice time per night.
As an NHL sophomore, Poti bumped his goal total up by four and his assist total up by ten and averaged 24:10 of ice per game. But his defensive game wasn't improving, and though he'd go on to score another 13 goals and 36 assists in 136 games for the Oilers, he was booed out of town, traded to the Rangers (with Rem Murray for Mike York and a pick), because of these defensive shortcomings.
Poti's first full season on Broadway saw him score a career-best 48 points and play in the All-Star game. But things in the Big Apple went down hill from there - more defensive woes (despite a plus-16 season), more booing, and before long he and his puck moving skills headed out to Long Island for a season in which he notched 44 points and a career-best .56 points per game.
The following off-season - the summer of 2007 - Poti signed a four-year/$14-million deal with the Caps and managed just a pair of goals, but 27 assists (third-best in his career) in 71 games that included both an early-season shoulder injury that impacted his play all season and the emergence of Mike Green as the quarterback of the Caps' power play. Of the injury, Poti said, in retrospect:
"I couldn't shoot as well as I wanted to, or pass as well as I wanted to. I just had no strength all year. The problem was I kept coming back too soon. I never really gave the right amount of time to heal."
All of which brings us to the current season, one for which Poti declared himself 100-percent healthy... at the outset, at least. The blueliner has battled recurring groin injuries this season (and has a theory on the cause), and has been playing the tough minutes (and tough competition) all year. He's absolutely critical to the Caps defense and penalty kill and has a plus-five rating to show for his efforts.
But where did all that offense go?
To be sure, Poti has a different role on this Caps team than on any team for which he has played before. But he's producing at the lowest points-per-game clip of his career (0.27), and has no goals and just three assists since December 19. Read that again. In 26 games beginning with the 7-1 massacre in Philly, Poti has just three helpers - as many as Ducks rearguard James Wiesniewski had last night. Here's how he stacks up against the rest of the Caps' top six blueliners over that time:
| Player | GP | G | A | +/- | SOG | PIM | PP Min |
| Tom Poti |
26 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 19 | 18 | 27.3 |
| Mike Green |
39 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 151 | 42 | 205.0 |
| Shaone Morrisonn |
38 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 32 | 47 | 1.8 |
| Milan Jurcina | 40 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 53 | 36 | 4.0 |
| Jeff Schultz | 37 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 10 | 6.6 |
| John Erskine |
27 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 |
What jumps out (besides how unbelieveable a hockey player Mike Green is, the fact that one can bank stats simply by pulling on the sweater and playing, and that Poti has basically been John Erskine with power play time over the past three months)? How about those shots on goal? Of TP's 19, a dozen came in the first twelve games of this cold spell, and in the 14 games since, Poti doesn't have a single multi-SOG game and has been SOG-less seven times - all this from a guy who has averaged 1.63 shots on goal per game over his career, and is one shot shy of one per game this season overall. Throw in the fact that of the 183 defensemen in the League who have played 40+ games this season, only 15 of them have taken fewer slap shots five-on-five than Poti, and two obvious questions emerge: is Tom Poti, in fact, healthy, and if so, what's wrong with him?
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I think it’s less about injury and more about what’s being asked of him. Consider his role with each of those teams compared to his role here over the last, say, 18 months. When they were healthy last year, Nylander and Clark were averaging more PP time per game than he was. Both the current PP strategy and Green’s emergence appear to have relieved him of a PP QB role altogether.
And to go BTN for a second, at first glance the only guy with a better goals/60 and qualcomp on that list was Chara (and Chara’s a TOI monster), so it can’t be completely gone, maybe Tom’s evolving in his old age.
All that said, I was loving the early season Tom who would come creeping in when the puck was in the attacking.
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
I think I made sufficient disclaimers about his role, minutes, etc., but three assists and 19 SOG in 26 games isn’t striking to you, especially when you compare it to the “bottom four” blueliners on the team?
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I’d want to know what his ES point percentage was in the years he was actually racking up points, but for an “offensive-minded” defenseman, the numbers are jarring. Even if he has adjusted his game to compensate for the rather obvious weakness on the team (preventing goals), you would expect a guy like him to blunder his way into a few more goals, not to say assists.
Sorry, but if the point is that over the last 26 he’s putting up S@H numbers (more now than over the last year and a half), then the TOI disclaimer isn’t sufficient enough, in my humble (and energy-drink addled) mind.
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I was loving the early season Tom who would come creeping in when the puck was in the attacking.
You can still see that, but like other Caps, his accuracy seems to have disappeared. Whenever he pinches now, it’s better than even money the puck goes over the net.
Also, could some of this be who he’s paired with?
I could post video of poor decision-making by Poti where he moves fwd into the neutral or offensive zone to get a puck he can’t get which leads directly to an odd-man rush and a goal.
Remember when Schultz got crap for not blocking the pass between Guerin and Crosby? Who do you think put him in that position?
Remember the Kromwall three whack goal by Smyth? Look at the other goals in that game. You’ll find a Tom Poti getting hung out to dry.
Poor decision-making.
Could also have something to do with the fact that this team isn’t doing jack or squat 5 on 5 right now, but I’d argue in NY and NY he was getting much more PP time than he is now, with Green and Ovie eating 1:50 of each powerplay, and Bruce’s penchant for putting 91 as a D-man when Green needs a breather.
Apologies to all – I didn’t realize that I was cross-posting at the Tom Poti Apologist Fan Site.
But if we’re fine with a $3.5 million defenseman putting up “shut-down D” offensive numbers and having the highest GAON/60 5-on-5 of all the team’s D, that’s cool (and the Caps still are in the Top 10 in the League in 5-on-5 goals, and Poti’s still getting a minute-and-a-half of PP time per game).
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by J.P. on Mar 26, 2009 9:03 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wait, so now it’s gone from where’d his offense go to why his defense sucks?
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
No, not at all. It’s where did his offense go and why are we fine with “he’s become a s@h” as an answer when he hasn’t proven he’s good enough (other than by comparison to his cohorts) there.
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1:30 PP/Game
Is crap, imo. Stat accurate, sure. But if you asked Greener to switch roles and give up 4 MIN of power play time a game, and gave that to Poti, I’d bet he’d be scoring a hell of a lot more (and Greener would be scoring a hell of a lot less.)
When TP gets out there for the PP, who’s usually out there with him? From my observations it’s the “I give up…” unit of Flash, Nyls, Fehr and Ovie or Kozzie depending if Ovie feels like coming off the ice. It’s not just the time, but the quality of the guys he’s on the PP with.
Caps PP is @25%. 1 in 4. Average maybe 1 PPG/game? So they’re getting @4 PP/game, which means Poti averages @22s/PP. 22 seconds. Most of that time is spent hoping across the boards on a change (read, puck’s been dumped into our end) and someone like Flash or Ovie is carrying in to the zone. 22s, while still an opportunity, is hardly enough time to put up the numbers he has in the past.
Any way we can compare PPSOG with 5v5SOG for Poti when he was in NY?
Replying to my own
But to change subject a little. PPTOI is a bit wonky to me. Unit scores 17s into a powerplay, a guy’s TOI is horrible but the unit did it’s job.
Without using stats, wouldn’t this make Greener’s 5.5 min PPTOI look like 10 min/game for all the PP points he has?
Are you kidding me peeps?
I think the data is incontrovertible and that JP accurately points to the most-likely culprit: Poti’s shoulder (or groin, I suppose, but more likely the shoulder) is a continuing issue.
Elite offensive-defensemen don’t just stop shooting the puck because they don’t like the Verizon Center ice, or whatever. And Poti not only isn’t producing points, he’s shooting the puck as little as Brendan Witt, Kurt Sauer and Brooks Orpik, three guys who are allergic to the offensive zone.
So fanboy sentiment (and lack of data) aside, JP’s not only right to address the question, I think he finds the likeliest solution.
I certainly don’t have a solution, just a question that I wouldn’t mind seeing addressed somewhere.
Yes, we all know Flash is slumping and/or sucks. Great article for a day. How a similar look at Poti?
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I wonder how much of Flash’s problem is that he still doesn’t have all his strength back after that bout with pneumonia. Remember how he came in for the season having worked his tail off in the gym, and it showed? Then he landed pneumonia, and he has not been the same since coming back.
Pneumonia can do that to you. Seriously. It takes some people months to return to full strength after a bout with that stuff.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
So fanboy sentiment (and lack of data) aside
So thinking of possible other things makes me a fanboy? Really? OK.
How about during the years he scored double digit goals his PP TOI was 5:15, 4:44 and 3:25, and his last year on the island it was 4:38. In the two years here, it’s been 2:39 and 1:26.
But I guess I’m a fanboy.
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I appreciate your analysis, as always, BP, and certainly grant you the reduction in PP TOI (and retract my pre-coffee “Tom Poti Aplogist Fan Site” comment from earlier).
But here’s another couple of numbers -
2007-08 ES points: 21 (in 71 games)
2008-09 ES points: 11 (in 48 games, 2 in the last 26)
That’s a pretty steep drop off in ES production, IMO, especially lately.
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Poti’s not the only one with a drop in ES points…but, I expected the two year’s to be much further throughout, not just OV and Kozlov.
2007-08 ES points:
OV: 75
Backs: 44
Kozlov: 43
Green: 33
Laich: 25
Semin: 22
Flash: 21
2008-09 ES points:
OV: 55
Backs: 40
Semin: 43
Green: 31
Kozlov: 23
Flash: 22
Laich: 20
And FWIW, if WSH plays PHL in the playoffs, I’d like the Caps to play two D on the PP points when they have the lead: By one goal late or by two goals early. PHL is too good SH to play four forwards in all situations.
No worries bruddas. I’m with you on the 2 D point options if for nothing else because it might help get his groove back on the ES.
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that anything the Caps plan on doing in the playoffs, they should be implementing now, no?
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No question.
I’m not sure I buy into the “adjust our game” mentality. The Caps have lived and died by the 4 forward PP this year. They are good enough to impose their will on the Flyers as much as the Flyers are good enough to impose their will on them. If they are up 1, I’d rather them be up 2, and up 2 rather they be up 3 etc.
Considering the Flyers seem to run the philosophy that J.P. mentioned after the Toronto game (and have pretty much done so since last April), I think a new wrinkle where you can find it would be a plus.
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Poti
Let’s lay off our boy Poti. He’s probably our best all-round defensemen. Has a surprising nasty side. Gets very few PP opportunities. All around, he’s one of GM’s best signings.
Is that you, Chris Crocker?
When people are underperforming, we call them on it and try to figure out why. It’s what we do around here – there are other places on the internet if that doesn’t suit you.
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by J.P. on Mar 26, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
JP, you seem a little grumpy this morning. Not your usual welcoming self…
by Moonage Daydream on Mar 26, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Sigh. It’s true – rough morning.
Thanks for that picture of Olie, though – it brightened the day.
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Have any data to support that assertion, b/c around here we engage in discussions in which “evidence” is used to back our claims.
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Only if it’s numerical evidence. If it’s just “what my eyes see,” it’s cool.
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Yes, he’s probably the best all-around defenseman. Yes, he is willing to get in the face of opponents more than some other guys. Yes, he was a good signing. I don’t think any of that is in dispute. But no one here is saying “Wow, Tom Poti sure does suck, what was McPhee thinking?!??!!”. We’re saying that he’s dropped steeply in terms of offensive production recently and we’re wondering why.
by David Getz on Mar 26, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Has he fallen victim to “carebear syndrome”?
Definition: carebear syndrome – (noun) – Most evident on the Washington Capitals. In order to shoot the puck on goal everything has to be perfect. When presented with a perfect shooting opportunity, failure to ring the top iron will cause immediate shame and fear of failure will cause the player to dump the puck to the side boards.
Joking aside. Is this something that has crept on to the rest of the team? Especially guys that are expected to be able to produce offensively? We certainly have seen it in Flash and Fehr, even Laich over the course of the year. Is Poti being too cute?
You asked, I answered. Tom Poti and Care Bears-cute? No. Just isn’t there. He’s not shooting the puck not because he’s leaving sweet set-ups for AO. (That’s evident from watching the games, but look at the assist numbers too.) It’s just not even close to being a factor.
Not having assists doesn’t mean that he isn’t being too cute.
And the fact you disagreed isn’t a problem, its the “whatever man, are you paying attention” attitude you had while disagreeing. You don’t need to handle me with kid gloves, I’m a big boy. but if you expect well thought out answers to your posts, there is no reason that I shouldn’t expect, and get, the same thing.
I think there’s one defenseman who gets too cute, and it ain’t TP.
I have no answer for why he isn’t taking more shots, which is why I wrote this post.
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I do think that a lot of the team doesn’t shoot enough from the blueline. Could it be a system thing? The Bears don’t do as much as they should either, though they do it more than the Caps do.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I understand it from Erskine. Or Juice. Or Mo. Or Schultz.
But this is Tom Poti. He knows how to get the puck to the net.
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Except I see Schultz shoot as much as Poti does.
I have no answers for you, JP.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Precisely my point – Poti should have some separation from those other guys here.
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“He knows how to get the puck to the net.”
Could it be that he’s lost some of his confidence? Some reasons that might contribute:
1) He was brought here as a PP specialist…someone to QB the PP…that’s not happening.
2) Shoulder injury…either it’s not 100% physically, or somehow it’s effected him psychologically.
3) Groin injury….this is where I think it’s comfortable…again, it may be close to 100% physically, but maybe he’s not pinching as much because he doesn’t have confidence in his groin holding up as he tries to get back4
4) All of the above…could all of the above forced him to change the way he plays…and hasn’t, for whatever reason, reverted back to his old style. Happens to a lot of hitters in baseball…come back from injury or in a slump, change one’s swing a bit…sometimes takes a full season to get back to one’s original swing.
Btw, I was thinking that it’s almost too bad TP isn’t a little cuter on occasion, b/c “My Little Poti” would be epic. Almost as epic as Slave Leia My Little Pony:
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by J.P. on Mar 26, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
The harsh glare of the "Stats Spotlight" can be a bitch.
the numbers are the numbers, but trust your eyes, not just for Poti but everyone.
By the way, remember before you post, we’re all caps fans, I think
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
Yes, JP, mind the Stalinst Truth Squad, please. No discussion of numbers, data or players that aren’t GLORIOUS and that do not speak well of the Weagle! MARCH. IN. LINE.
I have no issue with the numbers or the criticism of the team and players
I didn’t defend Poti, the 19 SOG scared the hell out of me.
My point or desire is for people to make up their own minds, use the numbers but also watch the game and understand what your seeing. Too many people just parroting what they’ve read.
How many peoples favorite player was Lou Franceschetti, Greg Adams, Bobby Gould or Gaetan Duchense (showing my age).
The numbers don’t support them.
Love the site, love the stats and the conversations they start, just don’t want to read the game threads and know before hand who will be the whipping boy for the night.
happy happy
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
by toymechanic on Mar 26, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
just don’t want to read the game threads and know before hand who will be the whipping boy for the night.
Agreed… but it’s never a bad thing to have something specific to watch for when you’re watching the game, is it?
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What’s that supposed to mean? (Just because you’re fat, you can’t get out of bed? I mean come on — equally silly.)
(Have you ever stood in a Richard Serra?)
Doh!
Replied to the wrong post. See my reply below, if you would. I’m itching to know what the stinging retort to your closing, parenthetical query is.
Careful – that’s the kind of idiocy that makes one want to remove one from a community.
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I am going to have to improve my writing skills – I am not able to convey jocularity at all, apparently. That was what I intended.
I guess that makes two fails on the week. Not my best efforts.
Sorry.
In closing, I will take the bait, as I am unable to resist my curiosity as to the answer: What’s a Richard Serra?
If I’m not mistaken, he’s a sculptor who creates giant scary metal sculptures.
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Yes. They’ve killed a man and maimed another. Unintentionally. Serra also enjoys flinging hot lead (real lead) as part of his art-making process.
One of the scariest things I’ve ever done is stand in Serra’s Torqued Ellipses at Dia:Beacon.
The sculptures weigh about 20 tons each, and only barely touch the ground. They’re installed 40 feet from the MTA North railroad in New York. When you’re in a Serra and a train goes by… you’re sure death is at hand.
Reminds me of a great quote
“The wise man will seek to acquire the best possible knowledge about events, but always without becoming dependent upon this knowledge. To recognize the significant in the factual is wisdom.” Detrich Bonhoeffer
Seriously though, I think we all appreciate the effort and research that goes into crunching data and presenting it in an articulate way, but let’s not all become a bunch of HAL 9000s. Everyone’s got their own take on the data, which they read with their own pair of subjective eyes.
If we trusted our eyes on Poti, I think they’d be much less fair to him. How many glaring defensive miscues has he made in the past couple of weeks? His play in that Atlanta game made my eyes vomit.
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Exactly, he just doesn’t do much anymore, at least in my eyes. And that kills me, when he first came back the PK was on a roll, and now it’s regressed to the Caps mean again, which is below-average of course. I wish I had more to add, but this topic just doesn’t rile me up like a good Eric Fehr discussion.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him. He built up some impressive offensive numbers playing on the power play at previous destinations but doesn’t get more than a few moments on it now (Green is getting the vast majority of PP time at one point, AO plays the other point.)
What is happening is that Poti’s game is changing as his skills are in decline. He realizes he can’t be the defenseman leading the rush anymore and he has focused on his defensive game. When he was in NY or Edmonton, he logged a lot of minutes, but not much on the PK. Here in DC, he is an anchor on the PK. He realizes what he can and can’t do and is changing his play based on that. Some players don’t learn to do that and they end up out of hockey by the time they reach Poti’s age. The best players change their game and adjust as the wear and tear of hundreds of games affects them…
Poti will likely never score goals in double figures again, or have dozens of assists again, but if you need reliable steady minutes and a solid pass out of the defensive end, Poti is the guy for the job.
With Pothier coming back, I would expect Poti’s power play time to decrease even more. Pothier’s offensive skills are probably now slightly better than Poti’s. But hey, Poti will still get his 20-25 minutes a night, and I’m happy with that…
1:26 per game is a bit more than “a few moments” of PP time.
And his lack of ES assists – two in the past 26 games – would seem to cut against the argument that he’s making that solid first pass out of the zone, no?
Look, I’m not saying this guy should be putting up a point a game. I’m just saying that regardless of “role,” he should still have the skill to be the team’s second-most offensively productive blueliner of the six listed in the post.
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If (a) the guy is still dinged up with a shoulder or groin, and (b) he realizes that Greenie’s “got” the O down, and © he realizes that without him there ain’t no shutdown guy on the team, then he may be spending himself 100% in the D zone.
Truth is, I was extremely happy with Poti in December/January even without any O. It was clear from watching the games that this just wasn’t the same team without him, and when he was in there the back line was taken care of. I just haven’t felt that way the last six weeks. Poti’s taking a lot more stupid penalties and he’s quite frankly not playing as well in the D zone. This comes from just watching him — I don’t have numbers to back it up — but I know we’ve all called him out on some poor play a few times lately.
Everything in my mind turns to “hurt” and “trying to do to much.” And if we’re going to get 75% of Tom Poti, I’d rather get as much D as possible, since we have Green. The Tom Poti who played here last year was a pretty good hockey player, even with just one wing. But I’m not sure we’re even getting that much of him this year.
by Gould Old Days on Mar 26, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Is there a statistic for Quality of PP time or something? 1:26 doesn’t seem like that much to me, but I would think there’d be something of a difference between getting 45 seconds on two power plays with the top group and the face-off in the zone to start, versus getting the last 25 seconds of a few powerplays with the second shift when the first shift poops out and you’re coming on and starting the rush with three others just on the ice (and AO, natch).
It’s a good point, and this is somewhat related, I think, to what you’re saying – Poti’s Quality of PP Teammates is the worst on the team (min. 40 GP and 1 min of PP time/game).
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It still only buys him an ounce of an excuse. The fact is, when your on the PP, even if you are playing with the second unit. ie Flash/Fehr/Feds and Kozlov, you should be able to pump a shot or two on net.
Oh, I agree. But I wanted to put those cards on the table as well.
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I think the biggest thing with Poti is that we are asking him to be a defensive Dman. Not necessarily an offensive threat. So his numbers will suck. While looking at these stats, one question comes to mind:
Does Poti play against the opponents top line?
When we look at the other Dmen stats we look at the quality of opponent. So if Poti is playing against the other teams top line, yeah he’ll have worse +/- numbers, and that usually means he’s not on the ice when our top line is on the ice so that means we don’t have possession of the puck (for the most part).
His offensive numbers suck, but he’s not specifically an offensive Dman.
Either way, come April 15, these stats mean NOTHING and the real season begins.
All of this circles back to a main point here – yes, his role has changed; yes, he’s playing the toughest minutes; BUT he’s producing less offensively than Schultz or Juice or Mo and on par with Erskine which shouldn’t be the case even with those factors accounted for.
Of course, maybe I’m making too big a deal of this. Another three assists and maybe I don’t even write this post…
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I wonder if there is a correlation between your posts calling out players and their performance after said post? I seem to remember you making jabs at Flash early on and then he went on a tear. I could be thinking of something else though.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 26, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Poti's Real Value
No doubt, the Poti we have is far different from the Poti we thought we were getting ( and probably far different from the guy McPhee agreed to pay $3.5 mil per year to). That said, what Poti brings to this team is something they are the most in need of …veteran leadership on the blue line. Not counting Pothier, TP is the only defenseman over 30 on this team. I hate to say it, but, if you look back over history, very few teams with only one true 30+ veteran defenseman do well in the playoffs. Without Poti, despite his meager offensive output, I wouldn’t bet spit on the Caps post-season chances. And on that theme, that’s why the return of Pothier to his pre-concussion level of play could be such a major boost as they head into the playoffs.
I would also assume that on most of those teams with an over 30+ blueliner that said blueliner had winning playoff experience.
Well, the point I was trying to make is that most successful playoff teams have multiple over 30+ blueliners, not just one like the Caps (two if you count Pothier). And yes, probably at least one or two of those older defensemen have playoff success. Unfortunately, Poti doesn’t fit that bill having played in 31 playoff games and never getting past the first round.
When Poti was signed there was no such thing as the Lambor-Greenie. Now he’s being asked to fill a role as more of a stay at home guy who can move the puck a little. That’s certainly not his strength.
So we are getting all the downside and none of the upside (because of his role). I am hoping he is traded this summer to a team that is looking for him to be more offensive and that we can get a good (decent) SAH guy in exchange.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
He’s a capable defensive defender, but for what we are paying him, and what he could be worth to another team, I have no problem sending him away for a true-blue stay at home guy.
Of the three FA signings made two (or was it three) years ago, Nylander, Poti and Kozlov, I’d only want to keep Kozlov around for the future. If the Caps were going to try and work Poti back into the offense then I say keep him around, but if all we want is a stay at home guy, we have Alzner and I’m sure we could fetch someone with Poti.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 26, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, Alzner needs to demonstrate he can play in the NHL before the team makes any moves based on that assumption.
Exactly, and I think we have Poti for one more year? So if Alzner isn’t up to snuff by this time next year, then we’d know Poti’s real value.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 26, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
according to nhl numbers….Poti 2 more seasons 10/11
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
So by the time Poti leaves, assuming of course, Alzner would be our go to DFD and who knows what prospect (Carlson comes to mind) will be with us.
As Metal Cap said below me, while a trade might help shed salary, it might be best to keep him around, and try to re-ignite his offense in our system.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 26, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And there’s not a clear advantage to shedding the salary. I don’t have that much faith the team can make a move that uses those 3.5 million so much more efficiently that it makes sense to move Poti and make whatever other commitments would be necessary to do it.
Worried fans would say ditch Poti so we can afford Backstrom and Semin’s inevitable pay raises, but I’m not in that worried camp.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Poti go if we got something that benefited us for the better, but exactly what would that be?
The only contract that I think needs to be shed is Nylander, but that’s a whole ’nother debate for a DMG/JP/SP post.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 26, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
It might be a good idea to move Poti to afford those guys, but it’s not an issue for next.
As for Nyls, I say they stick with the original plan and buy him out after next season.
McPhee’s. That’s why you give a guy 5.5 million for three years and 3 million in the last year. Throw in that the NMC expires after next season and I think you can make a very good case that McPhee never expected to have Nylander here after the 2009-10 season.
can’t we just make Mrs. Nylander really really mad so she waives the NMC for us?
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 26, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Who do you bring in/up to replace Feds and Nyls, though? I get the feeling it may be very foolish to buy Nyls out this summer. There’s no guarantee that Feds will stay, and Nyls is a good player when he wants to be.
Despite that, I agree. I’d buy him out, bring in a 2nd line center (Brendan Morrison’s UFA, maybe package a deal for Andy McDonald) and bring up Bourque permanently and get him adjusted to the NHL.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 26, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I’d be good to hold on to Poti. He’s a solid D man and instead of replacing him with Alzner wouldn’t it be a fantastic thing to improve our Defense with both of them instead of the treading water we’ve had for the past few years?
Wow that was a run on sentance and a half but hey I’m not in school so it is what it is… here to the afternoon cup of coffee!
I don’t know where we keep getting the ‘solid D man’ info from. I see him making gaffes all the time, some of them amaze me considering his experience. He certainly isn’t physical. There is a reason he gets passed around from team to team. So right now his best asset is being better than Erskine, Jurcina and Morrisonn, but he could easily have respectable offensive numbers if he played on PP1. If you can get someone in return who has limited offensive ability but can be physical and play solid D, I’d take that in a heartbeat.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
I don’t know where we keep getting the ‘solid D man’ info from. I see him making gaffes all the time, some of them amaze me considering his experience.
You can get it from watching him, or from the stats and I think he does pretty well in both. From watching him, he’s an above average skater and generally makes smart plays. He makes mistakes, no doubt, but it’s pretty much impossible to not make mistakes playing defense in the NHL. To a large extent what makes a guy a good defenseman is his ability to make mistakes less often than other defensemen.
Statistically, Poti is above average in takeaways, giveaways, blocked shots, and plus minus, and has done it while playing against better competition than the team’s other defensemen.
Boosting Poti’s value based on the dregs that occupy the 4-6 spots on the D-ladder (not accounting for Pothier) isn’t going to convince me. I’m not even trashing the guy, but if Tom Poti were a free agent this summer would the Capitlas sign him for two years at 3.5M per?
Russian Machine Never Breaks
It seems that he has had to sacrifice one for the other. I know that J.P. has tried to account for this, but given that he was boo’ed out of Edmonton and NYR for being a less than terrific defensive blueliner, its not an outlandish extension to say that he has had to give up offense for extra defense.
It could be subtle things. ie because he thinks of defense first he backs off the offensive blueline rather than stepping up to a puck/player, he dumps it in rather than looking for a cross ice pass, he puts the puck to the corner from the blueline rather than shooting through traffic in order to avoid a block that goes the other way. I don’t have numbers, and I don’t know if I’ve noticed him make any of those decisions, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that he is actively making less offensive decisions to improve his defense.
What does everyone honestly think we could get for Poti in a deal?
Scouts are going to be seeing (lots of things we don’t watch for) some of the same things we’re seeing, and probably won’t rate him very highly.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 26, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions
Schultz V Poti
I would just like to mention that many people put Schultz down all the time and rarely mention anything about Poti. The numbers, to me, would suggest that perhaps people are being a bit unfair in this respect.
I like that the criticism is based on production/numbers. It’s concrete.
"For reason, ruling alone, is a force confining; and passion, unattended, is a flame that burns to its own destruction.
Therefore let your soul exalt your reason to the height of passion; that it may sing; " - The Prophet
Do you want to take his card or should I?
"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 26, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, no, I did. But I still wanted to make it clear what I meant for anyone who might come across this string later.
for anyone who might come across this string later....
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Mar 26, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Syllogism.
Exactly one time in his career Tom Poti has increased his point totals after playing a full season with that team (his second season he improved on his rookie totals). Tom Poti scored 29 points last season. Tom Poti will not score 29 points this season.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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