The Caps and Penalty Plus-Minus
by J.P. on Mar 23, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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With the Caps on Day Two of a two-games-in-ten-days stretch, it's time to focus in on the big issues facing the team as the playoffs loom, and near the top of that list, of course, is discipline.
Peerless made the point recently that the Caps' penalty killing woes are exacerbated by the fact that they've been shorthanded way too often (with nearly 10% of the scheduled yet to be played, they've already had to kill more penalties this season than they had all of last season), and that the team's lethal power play isn't making opponents pay as often as it could, because the Caps are in the bottom half of the League in extra man opportunities. Now it's time to name some names as to who's part of the problem and who's part of the solution.
First, a look at the forwards (and we're just looking at five-on-five non-coincidental penalties and guys who have played at least thirty games; PD is penalties drawn, PT penalties taken, +/- the difference and +/-Per60 the +/- per sixty minutes of five-on-five ice time):
| Player | PD | PT | +/- | +/-Per60 |
| Brooks Laich | 23 | 5 | 18 | 1.3 |
| Eric Fehr | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1.1 |
| Viktor Kozlov | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0.4 |
| Matt Bradley | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0.3 |
| Boyd Gordon | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Chris Clark | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Alexander Ovechkin | 26 | 24 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Tomas Fleischmann | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alexander Semin | 19 | 20 | -1 | -0.1 |
| Michael Nylander | 10 | 11 | -1 | -0.1 |
| David Steckel | 11 | 12 | -1 | -0.1 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | 9 | 15 | -6 | -0.3 |
| Donald Brashear | 11 | 19 | -8 | -0.9 |
| Sergei Fedorov | 3 | 17 | -14 | -1.7 |
And now the blueliners, same criteria apply:
| Player | PD | PT | +/- | +/-Per60 |
| Karl Alzner |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Jeff Schultz | 3 | 5 | -2 | -0.1 |
| Tom Poti | 4 | 9 | -5 | -0.4 |
| Mike Green | 14 | 23 | -9 | -0.6 |
| Shaone Morrisonn | 7 | 17 | -10 | -0.6 |
| John Erskine | 6 | 15 | -9 | -0.9 |
| Milan Jurcina | 4 | 27 | -23 | -1.3 |
A few things jump out:
- You've heard the baseball expression "a walk is as good as a hit?" Well, on this Caps team, four penalties drawn are as good as a goal (since the PP is roughly 25% effective) and five penalties taken are as good as a goal against (since the PK is roughly 80% successful), so do the math and we can bump Brooks Laich's "adjusted" goal total up from 18 to 22 and Eric Fehr's from 11 to 13 and knock Sergei Fedorov's goal total down from eight to five and Donald Brashear's from one to negative one (though given his role, that's a bit harsh... but just a bit).
- It's probably not fair to do apply the same adjustment to defensemen, but if we did, John Erskine and Milan Jurcina would be in the red. Mathieu Schneider is the only blueliner in the NHL who has taken more penalties and drawn fewer than Juice. I'm thinking he's wearing a suit for Game One of the playoffs. Then again, there's not a single defenseman in the League (minimum 40 games played) who has been on the ice for more penalties committed by his team per sixty minutes of five-on-five time than Erskine (with Juice not far behind).
- Not surprisingly, Laich and Fehr - the Caps' two go-to-the-net forwards - are blowing away their teammates in terms of penalty +/- per 60. Fehr's plus-10 penalty plus/minus, team best penalties drawn per sixty, plus-8 regular plus/minus and the 3rd-best points per sixty rate on the team at five-on-five (better than Nicklas Backstrom, even), say he should be getting more ice time. Bruce Boudreau says otherwise.
- The Caps' pivots, as a group, don't go to the net (both by design and by inclination), so they don't draw penalties and end up in bad shape in penalty +/-.
- For Matt Bradley to play the role he does and end up well on the positive side of the ledger here is impressive.
- Chris Clark drew 50% more penalties than Tomas Fleischmann has in half the total games played, and Flash is being "outdrawn" by Erskine and Boyd Gordon (among others). And we'll all float on, ok...
- For Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin to be a combined plus-one at this point in the season is pretty poor. By comparison, Dustin Brown leads all forwards at an eyebrow-raising +45, but other superstars are posting huge positives here, including Jarome Iginla (+26), Erik Cole (+25), Evgeni Malkin (+21), Henrik Zetterberg (+20) and Sidney Crosby (+11).
- Fedorov's minus-14 is better than only five forwards - David Backes, Jarret Stoll, Adam Mair, Raitis Ivanans and Bobby Holik.
- Jeff Schultz is second on the team's rearguards in even strength ice time per game, is plus-13 and doesn't commit penalties... and yet people hate on this guy.
We could go on (and if anything sticks out to you, by all means mention it in the comments), but the bottom line here is a few obvious points we've been harping on for what seems like ages - this team needs to drive the net to draw penalties (as much as to score goals) and stay out of the box if it's going to have a prayer in the second season. Some guys have already gotten the memo. Others hopefully will before it's too late.
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A few days ago we were talking about the importance of AO emerging as a leader… well, when he (and 28) take as many HHTs as they do, it can’t be a surprise when the rest of the team lacks discipline, can it?
That goes back to the leadership tangible of Fedorov. Oh wait…
"Taking all common sense FAIL nominations here."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure how much I agree here. First of all, I don’t think anyone’s taking their lead on anything from Alex Semin – he needs to be led (and see BP’s point here on Fedorov).
And AO’s problem with penalties here relates to leadership, sure, but I don’t think it in and of itself green lights other guys to start paying rent in the penalty box.
All that said, I think it may get at a larger point – accountability. Maybe if Bruce held these guys a little more accountable, they’d be a little better disciplined, and maybe it would have an effect throughout the lineup.
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I’d love to see the breakdown showing how long into a shift the Young Guns are/were when they get their penalties…all (especially the Alexs) are renowned for their long shifts…
As for accountability…yes maybe BB could do more, but that’s also something I’d expect the C and As to take care of….easier said than done when two of the As are near the bottom of the list.
Not to circle back on our other discussion, but one of those A’s (Fedorov) has taken as many this year as he did all of last year, and in two dozen fewer games to boot. The other A has actually improved since last year.
This doesn’t mean I’m not happy that he’s helped Semin become a more defensively responsible player, but hopefully BB can address this with the room over the next (relatively slow) 10 days.
"I didn't down a half bottle of Firefly and 4 arena beers for that type of performance."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed…my brother and I were discussing/debating this question last night. Would you, as a coach/player/fan, rather finish the season like the Caps are this year (minimal games spread out over the last few weeks) or, assuming the team stays healthy, with a busier schedule?
Right now, the break coudln’t come at a better time for this team IMO. Gives them ample time to correct some of the minor flaws/breakdowns in the system.
I’m going to go out on a limb here because I have absolutely no evidence to back this, but I have to believe the Caps playing 3 games in an 11 day period this late in the season is almost unprecedented. Had they been on a hot streak, I’d probably say it was a bad thing. However, given their up and down play, maybe practice is what they need more than anything. It should certainly give them time to recharge their batteries and heal any minor injuries.
And keep in mind...
That both Semin and Ovechkin are victims of the system: Semin as a diver, and, for some reason, Ovechkin is now being labeled one, too. Ovechkin gets hauled down, tripped, clipped on the chin, etc. and nothing gets called for him, when he hits someone cleanly and gets called for boarding, charging, roughing, etc. He’s got some stigma with the Refs that I personally find to be BS, but whatever. Point being, his +/- should be a good bit higher.
Semin, though, is basically unlucky in this regard by his own fault. He was a huge diver before Fedorov came in, and that has unfortunately stuck with him, so he doesn’t get nearly as many calls in his favor as he should, either. But he’s also blatant in his penalties: when he takes a penalty, everyone in the building knows it and would have called it themselves. It’s rare that he takes a questionable call.
Now, I’m not arguing the numbers, I’m arguing the merit. Semin’d probably be close to those numbers, but Ovechkin would be a way, way higher plus.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 23, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I gotta disagree here. Refs miss calls on Ovechkin, I am sure, but they miss calls on everyone. If anything, Ovie ought to be in the penalty box more for charging – he has one boarding call and two charging calls on the season and leaves his feet on at least one or two hits a game.
And I don’t think Semin is a diver. I do think he’s not all that strong and can be pushed off the puck relatively easily for an NHL player.
Does Ovechkin leave his feet before or after the hit, though? I’ve never specifically noticed him jumping into someone, but I have noticed him landing after a hit. And i don’t think it’s “missed” calls, either, though. He should be the most watched player on the ice, on both sides of the puck, mostly because he’s so hard to miss. He takes a lot of crap that doesn’t get called, but gets called for a lot of crap.
And Semin absolutely was a diver before the end of last season. He was bad at it, too, which is why he has such a bad rep, now. Not only diving, but throwing the puck at the net and not getting caught? He had bad discipline, then, which he’s certainly rectifying, but isn’t entirely cured from, this season.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 23, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay, I can buy Semin as a diver, especially in earlier seasons, but I don’t think it’s as extreme as you made it out to be.
As for Ovechkin – he leaves his feet during hits on a regular basis; certainly enough that he’s lucky to only have two charging penalties on him for the season. On a whole, I just don’t feel like he’s getting a raw deal from the officials and I don’t think he gets sent off undeservedly any more than most players.
H/o, I’m confused. You say “leaves his feet during hits,” do you actually mean jumping? Or are you talking about getting lifted off of his feet from the force of the check?
As I said, I’ve noticed him landing plenty of times, but I don’t have an instance in my (clearly biased, Ovie-loving :-) memory of his jumping at someone.
And that’s what I meant about Semin. But it was pretty bad in his first and second years, and the first half of last season.
And I’ll admit that I exaggerated some ahem.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 23, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Leaving the feet can happen any time during or immediately after a hit. Usually, Ovechkin lifts off after contact, because he has built up momentum and hits from a low-center of gravity upwards - which is fundamentally sound but after taking 10 full strides can be considered charging.
The idea is if you’ve left your feet, you’re doing something wrong. For the most egregious example, see the Steve Downie hit last preseason against Dean McAmmond. He doesn’t technically leave his feet until after contact, but his momentum naturally takes him there.
The keyboard is mightier.
Usually, Ovechkin lifts off after contact, because he has built up momentum and hits from a low-center of gravity upwards – which is fundamentally sound but after taking 10 full strides can be considered charging.
That’s always charging. The rule of thumb is two or three strides before the hit.
It’s not charging if you leave your feet after you initiate contact, only if you leave you feet before you hit. It’s the difference between carrying a guy upwards with you and just plain going for his head.
I think it’s a bit of both. I think he leaves his feet on a regular basis without getting called for it and I also think he doesn’t do it as much or as blatantly as his critics charge.
That seems odd. Isn’t the point that the other player’s momentum is what carries him upwards? Obviously, unless Ovechkin is down low for the hit (which he usually isn’t) or runs through his opponent, the other player is going to be the equal and opposite reaction that sends him upwards. It’s not going to be charging if he’s on his skates when he makes contact and hasn’t just come off a sprint. Landing after the fact should be irrelevant. I’m not arguing the rule as written, but the way it’s called. I think he doesn’t get many charges because he lands, rather than jumps.
If it were me, I wouldn’t call a charge on a land, unless I saw the player take too many steps. The initial jump, though, is an automatic charge. IMO.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 23, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure you guys are being at all fair or that these stats are anything but “stats for stats sake” when you start doing just basic math yopu can easily say things like “4 PDs = 1GF” and “5PTs = 1 GA” and the math works but in the absence of when the Penalties are drawn or taken the stat and the underlying algoritm may be more important or totally irrellevant. My point is drawing a penalty when the other team is frustrating and you are leading by more than 2 or 3 goals probably doesn’t help as much as it could in the oppositte situation say drawing a penalty when you are behind by 1. The oppositte goes true as well. My point is you don’t need this in depth analysis to know the Caps are too undisciplined total team PIM tells that pretty easily the Caops with 378 PIM to date are tied for 26th in PIM with only Vancouver, Montreal, Anaheim and Philadelphia with more total PIM that said I’m pretty sure there are 14-16 teams around the league come end of the season that will probably want to trade places with at least 3 and maybe all 5 of those teams….
Bottom line is the Caps need to start playing more disciplined hockey because there is no reason a talent laden and skill focused team like them should be where they are tied for 26th in total PIM….why give people chances when you don’t have too. The primary issue is also the timing and type of poenalties from interference calls against the more skilled, better skating guys because they got caught out of position to the really dumb delay of game calls we suffered through in “surts” this season….
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 23, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
J.P. I’m not saying either AO or Semin are perfect and I’d love top see them get a little more mature about the penalties but they sure seem to get whacked on more a lot of the other skilled forwards in the league without the opponents getting called. I’m probably just being a “homer” but I do really feel that way.
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 23, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone know where I can find a penalty minute breakdown over the course of the season. Organized by month, or by quarters of the season?
Has the penalty issue been this big a problem all year long? I’m not sure if I willingly ignored it while they were winning 10 in a row.
I’d like to see whether the penalty minutes have increased dramatically during the “we’re just looking to the playoffs” stretch. The penalties the Caps take are lazy, not moving your feet penalties (for the most part). It would follow logically that the lazy efforts that we have blamed for so many losses would also lead to more lazy penalties.
Thanks J.P., any excuse to go to BTN before anyone else from work shows up is always fun.
I was looking at last year’s, the swing in the ratio of drawn to taken (from last year to this year) in 8 and 19 alone is startling.
"Taking all common sense FAIL nominations here."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That really is absolutely shocking. Here‘s the link, but here’s the bottom line – last year’s totals for the Big Four (Drawn/Taken):
Ovechkin (43/12)
Backstrom (22/9)
Green (24/23)
Semin (20/15)
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Semin’s reputation for falling down and going boom kills him in the penalties drawn department. He gets tripped/hooked a lot right in front of officials and they let it go.
Yeah, but he’s already taken 33% more than he did all of last year, Backstrom’s up 67% and AO is up 100%! Those numbers are staggering.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Not an excuse, but both of thouse guys you just mentioned are playing much more physical too. Is that a result (i.e. fatigue or emotion) of their increased penalties? and if by chance it might be… what is the trade off?? they’re both still young…
Better shift management, and keeping guys fresh might help prevent some of the fouls, but the physical nature of their play doesn’t do it for me. They are both taking stick fouls rather than aggressive penalties.
Yeah, that’s kinda my point…
They’re both young players, that are adding a “new” physical element to their games AND spending more time on ice than ever before, thus contributing to the fatigue factor and could be a possible reason for the stick/lazy fouls.
Better shift management comes from the top down… if BB sees this happening (and that these fouls are “end of extended shift” penalties), it’s on him just as much as the players themselves.
It’s a good question though…perked my curiosity to start looking at some other players career PIM numbers (I don’t know where to find the penalties drawn stat).
Anywho, first person I looked at was Iginla…his best goal scoring years have also been the years he puts up the most PIMS and best +/-
Intersting – Iggy’s best goals scoring season 88 PIM; OV wright now probably won’t get to that number which would be his highest by far. OV last 5 games – 0 PIM.. OV over 50 goals 3 out of last four season counting this season Iggy two fifty goal seasons in his career over 80 PIM each time. Semin who is one of my favorites doesn’t compare “nearly” as favorably. In really the only season you can compare due to Semins GP per season is 2006-2007 – 77 GP, 38 G, 73 Pt, 90 PIM; also Semin has 12 PIM in last 5 games….So I conclude comments and concerns about Semin in this regard right now seem to at least have a valid basis in fact. OV – not so much….probably need to ID a Center to compare Backstrom too; as for Green why not Lidstrom – Gren has 4 PIM last 5 games (all in one game); figure average of 1.25 PIM per game last 8 games and that puts him on track for 70 PIM this season.. Lidstrom average PIM last 4 seasons – 41 PIm, worst season of last 4 = 50 2005-2006 (80 games/.625 PIM/game). Another not so good comparison as far as Green’s PIM go…
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 23, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty shocked that OV is well off his pace of PD, and you wonder how teams have adjusted in defending him.
I think it’s a combination of things. Part of it is them adjusting to him, part of it is his play, part of it is the mind-f element that others play (ex. Mike Richards dropping hints on his play after a game for instance).
But they ultimately need some coaching up on disclipline, even if some guys are getting it (Laich’s PT number is down from last year’s 13 to 5, and Brashear has GASP drawn more/60 than Green, Kozlov or Fleischmann).
"I didn't down a half bottle of Firefly and 4 arena beers for that type of performance."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
also, I’m of the mindset that opposing coaches are A) obviously matching their #1 D-man on OV exclusively – all the time (after awhile, these guys are just learning AO’s moves) and B) Those D-men are giving him tons more room when he comes in with speed, thus not allowing him to get around them… and conversely committing the penalties.
yep, I think you and BP are both on to it.
once he develops a backhand shot he’s comfortable with, I think that will make a difference in his attack options, and will force a change in how G and D are shading him currently.
by bigonetimer on Mar 23, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Awesome research, and meaningful. Bradley, if I recall, had only taken 5 minors all season up until a week ago (in the comparison of Brash and Brads).
Among the forwards drawing penalties other than the Alexes, what’s the one common thread among Laich, Clark and Fehr…they go to the net. If you go to the net, you’re going to draw penalties…period. If you set up in front and let the Alexes and Nick and co. dance about, the other team has to get you out of the way, and that will, on occasion, result in a penalty. I bet Brads moved up to a top-3 line would have similar results as he would go to the net.
On the back line, its tough because it is rare that a d-man can draw a penalty. Most players are smart enough not to take a penalty in the attacking zone, and usually the best defensemen on a team will play against the best opposing forwards, so they will take more penalties (hence why Poti’s penalties taken is so high).
As for why AO, Green and Semin are high in both categories, I suspect part of it is due to the fact that referees are human, and they watch the game much like most human beings, and on the Caps, those guys are fun to watch, and will draw the attention of everyone, including the refs. (When Ovie is on the ice when I’m at the arena, I watch him more than most, ditto for the opponents, and I’m sure ditto for the refs.)
That Ovie also takes all these penalties ought to clear up the rumors that “star” players get away with more on the ice. If that were true, would Ovie have 24 penalties in this category?
by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 23, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think Poti’s PIM numbers are egregious but I will say a shutdown Dman should be able to play the other team’s top line without taking PIMs. If you have to cheat to stop the other team’s top line, then you are not a shutdown Dman.
Pronger doesn’t take HHT PIMs to stop opposing Forwards from having their way in the zone. Pronger takes aggressive/mean elbows and boarding calls that are meant to injure/intimidate the opposition. That is clearly not the kind of PIM that Poti takes. Yes, I have a limited definition of a shutdown D. I think if I went through the whole league I would classify maybe 30 guys as a true shutdown Dman. Just enough for one per team, if that.
Not sure your point in this discussion. Poti average 0.66+ PIM/game last season and is at 0.55 PIM per game this season. Proger’s best season post lockout is 0.925 PIM/game. I didn’t look at PD vs PT on him but even without doing so I’ll guess out of my butt that Poti’s ratio on that measure is better statistically than Pronger. As for comparing who you want on your team isn’t that a moot point in this comparison Poti is $3.5M/year and $6.25M so from an overall player perspective he better deliver more for/to his team from an MVP perspective than Poti though does he really deliver 1.78 time Poti’s value? Poti’s average PIM numbers are pretty low in comparison to other 1/2 D-Men with similar TOI aren’t they – getting back to your original point..
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 23, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Or see:
Chara: 17 taken, 8 drawn
Lidstrom: 13 taken, 3 drawn
Bowmeester: 28 taken, 7 drawn
Phaneuf is interesting…15 taken, 22 drawn.
Yeah. I should be more specific. I’m saying that shutdown D men should not have to resort to HHT PIMs to stop the other team. The original statement concluded that Poti takes more PIM because he plays against the top competition. I fundamentally disagree with that assessment. Chara and Listrom don’t take all that many PIM considering how much ice they get. Bowmaster is a bit more concerning but still, for a top 3 TOI guy I’m not sure that number is all that much. It also doens’t tell you how many of those are the HHT variety and how many are roughs or crosschecks, etc.
Indeed Poti should avoid these, but he’s not in the same class as Lidstrom, Pronger, etc. and indeed he doesn’t pretend to be. He’s doing the best he can with his talent, and the PK is definitely better when he’s in there vs. when he’s not.
Schultz has the potential to be something of a shut down guy, in that he doesn’t take many penalties, and he has a good plus-minus. He should be more physical given his size. I think as he gets a little older (he’s from Ovie’s draft class and only 23, he will get better) and wiser he’ll be out there getting 22-25 minutes a night (even strength and PK). He’s never going to be a fast skater, but he’s very effective. Most nights, you don’t know he’s played at all, and that means he’s doing his job.
by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 23, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Schultz has that potential, but I wonder if he’ll ever become a good enough skater, although I think his weakness in that area can be mitigated by pairing him with a guy who skates well. I thought Schultz and Poti worked very well as a shutdown pairing when they were together, for example.
Besides Green, Schultz is clearly the only Dman with shutdown potential on this team. He just needs to be more consistent. If he can put forth the same kind of performance that he put forth against Malkin in the last game v. PIT on a nightly basis then he can really be the kind of guy the Caps rely on to take away the opposition’s top line. He’s just not there yet, and neither is Green.
There’s obviously a lot of “ifs” in this scenario but I wonder if John Carlson has that potential – I saw him compared to Mike Komisarek more than once leading up to the draft. How great would it be if, several years down the road, Alzner and Green were the top, all-purpose pairing and Schultz and Carlson were the shutdown pairing with some offensive upside? That’d be a pretty formidable blue line.
I think a lot of Phaneuf’s penalties drawn are retaliation for some of the hits he throws. He’ll lay someone out with a clean hit and then the other team’s tough guy will take a shot at him….
by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 23, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think this stat and the spread is all that relavant but it appears even less so for “shut down” or defensive D-Men. I think that’s probably because you tend to draw penalties a lot more in the neutral zone when you are breaking out or the offensive zone when you are carrying the puck then when you are trying to box out a forward with the limits on interference, etc. these days in the NHL…
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 23, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
rec’d
Among the forwards drawing penalties other than the Alexes, what’s the one common thread among Laich, Clark and Fehr…they go to the net. If you go to the net, you’re going to draw penalties…period. If you set up in front and let the Alexes and Nick and co. dance about, the other team has to get you out of the way, and that will, on occasion, result in a penalty.
Locker mentioned this in a telecast the other day about how the game has changed with the Defense in front of the net positioning between the shooter and the crashing forward, whereas in years past (pre-lockout / rule changes enforcement) they would position themselves behind that forward and cross-check and/or punch them and be able to get away with it…. but they cannot do that now, so that quote makes a great point.
Will someone please explain the ratio of love for Fehr/ lack of production from top six forward. Also through Flash in there.
Let the Caps start giving Fehr top six forward minutes and I’ll get back to you.
On the other hand, I’d be all for a “Scratch Flash” campaign.
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
by marky narc on Mar 23, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not until the playoffs though
No cap space = no more callups, not the “luxury” kind to allow for healthy scratches at least. For better or worse Flash is going to keep playing through his slump. The best we can hope for is line juggling and minutes management. Hopefully he picks it up again.
It’s pretty tough these days to find 20-goal scorers (Flash is at 17, so he’ll likely get there) that make only $725k. He’s a streaky player, but that’s no reason to give up on him. Give him the minutes and let him figure it out. If he scores 4 goals in your first round playoff matchup, you’ll forget all about his slump.
The Caps would be smart not to pay $1.2 mil. for an enforcer next year though. Just sayin’…
by docciavelli on Mar 23, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s a streaky player, but that’s no reason to give up on him.
I don’t think people are down on him because he’s scored twice in his last 29 games and only once at even strength, because he has the worst per minute production of anyone other than Laich who’s played a top six role on a regular basis, and because he’s easily taken out of the game by playing him physically.
I don’t want to give up on him, I just want Fehr to see what Fehr can do with his minutes.
Nice point Mr. Passive Aggressive.
"I didn't down a half bottle of Firefly and 4 arena beers for that type of performance."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
"I didn't down a half bottle of Firefly and 4 arena beers for that type of performance."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Fehr and would love to see him get more ice time. Then again, I looked back at the six times this season he’s received 14+ minutes in ice time and he has a grand total of one goal and no assists over that time. Three of those games were consecutive. He’d make a better case for himself if he produced more when given the chance. That said, I still want to see him in Flash’s spot on the second line.
I wonder how many linemates he skated with over those three games. I remember a couple of games where he skated with Ovie, Backstrom, Flash and Feds in the same game.
We all seem to agree though, Flash has done very little with his ice time to deserve the extra minutes, and Fehr at least deserves another look at some significant time in the top 6.
I’m a bit surprised to see Feds at the bottom of the list, but I’m not surprised to see Semin in the middle. For all the hair-tearing over his hooking penalties, he does also draw them at a good rate. Which shows that I can read a chart reel gud.
I think Mo’s numbers would be even drearier if we counted 4-on-5 situations for the Caps. Just another angle in showing that he’s overpaid.
Yet another stat that makes Sarge look good (I was surprised to see that he’s still only 23) – there really ought to be a temporary moratorium on trashing this guy.
And also note that the one penalty Alzner has taken was for Delay Of Game and not any sort of obstruction call.
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
You know, I don’t think there’s a single stat breakdown/article/postgame wrapup/etc. in the last few weeks that hasn’t, in some form or another, brought me to the same conclusion: Laich needs to be the next guy to get the C.
Of course that probably means giving him an A first.
Why? I mean, I get your point… but I don’t know that the C has to go through the A.
But as for him being a future captain: I don’t think there’s any doubt.
I don’t think he needs to wear an A first. Bruce often (but certainly not always) uses his A’s to send a message to a guy that he needs to step up and into a leadership role – see Backstrom, Green, Ovechkin – and no one needs to tell Laich that. I don’t think we should worry about him not wearing an A – - he’s on the leadership fast track.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
wait...
(snark)You mean Ovechkin has drawn more penalties than Crosby this year? Wow. But Crosby dives.(/snark) Sorry JP, had to. =]
Okay, that aside, the Caps really do have a problem here. We all know that special teams frequency is a gigantic part of the game in the playoffs in terms of getting scoring chances. But what doesn’t show up on the scoresheet is that excessive penalty killing wears out your top D over the course of a series or two as well as your goaltender.
If the Caps could stop taking the “lazy” penalties, they’d be way more threatening in the postseason. We’ll see if that happens over the last few weeks of the season. Boudreau’s a good coach—I’ll bet this gets addressed.
The good news is that refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs, so the Caps shouldn’t have to kill penalties as often.
The bad news is that refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs, so the Caps shouldn’t have opportunities on the PP as often.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
You know what will autmoatically boost our PP opps by 5%?
Playing Chris Bourque 13 minutes a game.
He’s 5’ 7" and his motor is always running. Little guys, playing hungry, are hard to stop this late in the season. Last year we were full of hungry, leg-churning forwards.
I think penalties drawn is a statistical measure of consistency in effort, more than anything.
The keyboard is mightier.
that’s a good point breed. You draw fouls by mopving your feet and you pick up calls against when you don’t. Simple, no? If there was one area that this little layoff (2 gm/10) will benefit the team going into the stretch is conditioning.
by bigonetimer on Mar 23, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Definitely. I hope the fact that they’ll actually get to practice will get them in the right mindset to finish out the season with confidence.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 23, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope you guys are right, but do you really think that a couple weeks of practice rather than games will help with conditioning? That seems counterintuitive to me. I would think that you could do lots of skating but wouldn’t necessarily condition you for real games etc.
It definitely will help with all of the sore muscles and dings that have come up over the last couple of weeks which can’t hurt at all.
I often wonder if the hard-working mentality Hanlon instilled over the 2.25 rebuilding seasons has faded. We were known around the league as being the hardest working team, and I don’t think it was just a nice way of saying we sucked. Watching games, it was a well-earned reputation.
When BB took over last year, he took over a team with that work ethic that just needed a kick in a different sort of direction. Sort of like when Wade Phillips coached Parcells-built Cowboys to a 13-3 record, then this following season they played like a Wade Phillips team. (Not saying BB = Wade Phillips…not exactly at least).
The keyboard is mightier.
by breed16 on Mar 23, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The work ethic was there last year, but so was the accountability and so was the needed to get every point possible just to get into the playoffs (not literally, but that’s the way the team had to play it).
This year guys are getting lazy and I think you can make a case BB isn’t going enough about it.
by David Getz on Mar 23, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
How did Bruce’s Hershey team do when they were in a similar situation? Weren’t they leading the A but a bunch the year that they won the Calder?
This year guys are getting lazy and I think you can make a case BB isn’t going enough about it.
Yep.
"I didn't down a half bottle of Firefly and 4 arena beers for that type of performance."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
This year guys are getting lazy and I think you can make a case BB isn’t going enough about it.
I go back and forth on this. On the one hand, effort and accountability can clearly be traced back to a coach. On the other hand, the team is young and has never been in this situation. 3 years of fighting and clawing, followed by 6 months of being on top with nothing tangible to shoot for. The playoff waiting game can be deadly (see Ottawa last year), especially for those new to it.
The keyboard is mightier.
Its a question of who should be the one kicking a**. Should it be the players, should it be the coaches? Probably the answer is both, and both seem to be missing the mark.
Leadership is something that this team has a derth of. Hopefully the lack of leadership will resolve itself with time.
I think this type of leadership comes naturally to veterans and not so much to youngsters. I secretly hoped the Guerin trade happened because that’s the credible voice needed in the locker room during the dog days of February and March. These are the dog days that lead to lazy efforts, lazy penalties, and no penalties drawn. I was hoping Feds would provide it, but with all of his injuries and moderate productivity it’s not as easy for him.
At this point, the best thing, in my opinion, is to inject a hungry young guy and hope it has a ripple effect. Look what happened when Pothier returned – all of a sudden Morrisson is hitting like a machine and Erskine is skating like the wind! Maybe Bourque can put the fear of God in Flash, who in turn will start skating like the wind, who in turn will open things up for Fehr, who then will creep up on Laich’s goal total, who then will shoot for 25, etc.
The keyboard is mightier.
That is a pretty picture you paint. :)
I have been really disappointed with Feds’ leadership over these weeks/months. He has seemed to help Semin a bunch, but I would have hoped his leadership would extend to the whole team, it hasn’t seemed too. I would have loved to have seen a Guerin/Cole type come in and help down the stretch. They would be keeping guys even rather than on a roller coaster.
I also think that a young guy could really help, but in order to do that, BB needs to bench someone that is “unbenchable.” Mo and Erskine and Juice started playing because they all feared for their jobs. The only guys up front that fear for their jobs on a nightly basis are Steckel and… Steckel.
I nominate Brashear or Fleischmann, in the event everyone is healthy.
by David Getz on Mar 23, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
OTT didn’t flame out because of the “playoff waiting game.” If not for their ridiculously hot first 20-25 games OTT wouldn’t have sniffed the playoffs. They slumped their way through the final 2/3 of the year, not the final month or two.
Semantics
The point is: once they were safely in the playoff picture, they became complacent and never recovered.
The keyboard is mightier.
Not semantics at all. The Caps are just bored with their competition and are not competing. OTT crumbled as a team and really wouldn’t have had any business being in the playoffs if the season started Nov. 1. The Caps are still a really good team, as is evidenced when they decide to play. Problem is, they don’t always decide to play.
by Rob Parker on Mar 23, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good idea…. keep the legs moving and go to the net… sounds like the right way to draw penalties. :)
Maybe some other folks might get in on this… I’d love to see Kozlov go to the net more.
by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 23, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to see the lines get adjusted during this 2 in 10 streatch so there is at least one guy going to the net on every line on line 1 if it’s not Kozy drop’em back and make it Laich…this time of year and during the second season the lack of traffic in front of the net means so much more in the negative sense than in the beginning of the season. To me that’s why at this point putting Nylander on the wing is pointless and on this team these days he ends up being the third line center at best. Over $5M salary and a $4.85 Cap Hit for a guy who right now is either the #3 Center on the team or a healthy scratch – that’s a problem. Maybe not so much next season if Feds chooses not toi come back or somehow for the rest the season and the playoffs he changes style, crashes the net and shoots the puck more when he is in close but can/will an old dog learn new tricks?
On a team that played differently like we did under Hanlon, Nyls seemed a great fit – now not so much, not questioning his talent at all just his fit.
I see Line 1 net crasher either Kozy or Laich; Line 2 Fehr or Laich; Line 3 Fehr or Bradley; line 4 Brash or Bradley…. if the Caps play that way the only guy that Nyls seems to have chemistry with is Flash….I know others have other opinions just stating mine and it’s worth no more or less than any other avid fan’s….
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 23, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 10:06 PM EST)
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