Why The Penalty Kill Needs Alex Semin... And Vice Versa
In their last four-plus periods of hockey (including Saturday's one-shift overtime), the Caps have allowed four power play goals.
Alexander Semin wasn't on the ice for any of them - however he was on the ice for 2:35 of shorthanded time during that span.
In fact, Semin hasn't been on the ice for a power play goal against since January 27. Since then, the Caps have allowed 16 extra man goals, but not a single one came during Semin's 13:04 of shorthanded ice time. The result, in part, is that Semin has the best GAON/60 four-on-five of any forward on the team (one minute of SH TOI per game, minimum).
That's not to say that Semin is the team's best penalty killing forward, of course (though the team has killed off 80.8% of opponents' power plays in games in which Semin has had 1.5 minutes or more of shorthanded time, and only 78.0% when he hasn't). It's simply to say that he should be getting more time out there, and here's the kicker as to why - he's a better hockey player when he has this added responsibility.
In the 25 games in which Semin has had 1.5 minutes or more of ice time killing penalties, he has averaged .64 goals, 1.4 points and .52 minor penalties per game; in the 20 games in which he has had less than that amount of shorthanded ice time, he is averaging .45 goals, 1.2 points and .55 minors per game; and in the six games in which he hasn't had any time killing penalties, he has no goals, just four assists and four minors. Killing penalties seems to focus the oft-unfocused Semin and it carries over to the rest of his game. Simple as that.
Bruce Boudreau noted in a recent interview:
It is only recently, when I put Semin on Ovechkin's line, that I stopped using them when we were a man down, because it was their line that came out on the ice immediately after the PK ended. Let him show himself more on the attack. If, however, we have some players injured or scratched, I can easily use Semin on the PK.
With all due respect, it seems the coach is letting the tail wag the dog - use Semin on the PK and you'll see a better penalty kill and a better performer on the attack.
Update: Thanks to Pepper for reminding me of these Semin quotes from back in November (via Tuvanhillbilly):
This year Washington coach Bruce Boudreau has started playing you not only in the power play, but also on the penalty kill. Previously, this would have been hard to believe."Boudreau approached me before the start of the season and said "I saw how you and Fedorov worked on defense during the world championship. You know, I really liked what I saw, so now you and Ovechkin will be out on the penalty kill." And that is what happened. Your confidence builds up when you are in the game and not sitting on the bench.Generally, I like it when the other team has a one man advantage. It's easier to play on a foursome than on a fivesome."I'm surprised to hear that."It's easier, no doubt about it. You see, it's more difficult to attack than defend. Your opponent is moving the puck around in his zone, and you just stay in place and actually control his maneuvers. Nobody is pressing you, nobody is flying into you aggressively. I've loved playing four-on-five ever since I was a kid."
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no way
I disagree on this one. Both Semin and Ovi should not be on the PK. They’re not penalty killers, it’s really too dangerous for them to get hurt, and they lose the edge for the 5 on 5. The only upside would be that (very) rare SH goal – not worth it imho.
I don’t get it – how is making the PK better and making himself a better player on the PK not significant upside?
I agree that the team is better off not using Ovechkin as a penalty killer, but please do explain how all of the numbers and insights in the post relative to Semin (the subject of the post) are off base and how you’re right. How is a 42% increase in goals per game evidence of him “los[ing] his edge for the 5 on 5?”
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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great comment… except the data conclusively reveal that Semin is not just a penalty killer, but an excellent penalty killer.
That is not the only upside. The larger upside is pretty clear: Fewer goals-against.
Do you have data that more injuries occur on the PK than in other areas of the game? If so, please share it.
j.p. i think you are on to something
Killing penalties sure looks like it makes Bongo bear down. Maybe feel more like a leader or more responsible. I wonder. Have his PIMs decreased as his PK time has gone up too? I don’t have the stats or spare time to figure this out. Maybe this is all psychobabble BS, who knows. But whatever is going on, he’s stepped up his game lately and I for one would sure like to see that continue until June.
I do agree that Ovie doesn’t belong on the PK. Proof? Atlanta’s third goal last Thursday.
I updated the post with the PIM numbers. Not a significant difference there.
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I do agree that Ovie doesn’t belong on the PK. Proof? Atlanta’s third goal last Thursday.
2nded, but more to keep him fresh for his other time, since heloves being on the ice and all.
I also like anything that illustrates why Fleischmann should either be working on or reconsidered for PK time.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
One play isn’t proof of anything, but AO doesn’t seem to need the PK to focus his game, he’s not terribly good at penalty killing, and you want him out there for the shift after the kill, so let him rest for (hopefully) two minutes.
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Kozlov
It is only recently, when I put Semin on Ovechkin’s line, that I stopped using them when we were a man down, because it was their line that came out on the ice immediately after the PK ended.
Add the above to JP’s analysis here, and I think you have yet another reason why Kozlov is so important to this team. His presence in the lineup bumps Semin off the 1st line, giving Bruce the ability to play him on the PK.
Definitely (though I’d argue that even with Kozlov out, Semin should not be the top line RW).
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No question. When Kozlov’s out, I think Fehr should be on that line.
by TJA on Mar 2, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
play him on the PK, every game, before the playoffs
and we will know just how effective he is in the long run
Why? Do you have a statistical basis for thinking so? If JP’s data isn’t statistically significant, I’m open to hearing about it. But I’d be surprised if the 17 remaining games are enough of an added sample to impact the significance level.
nope :) not statistically based. you’re not going to get a satisfying explanation or answer out of me, as its more of a subjective thing.
by ns on Mar 2, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Semin
So if I’m reading the BTN link right, he’s also drawing more penalties/60 among that group too?
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
No – he’s actually taking the most (but that’s just while 4-on-5).
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It’s not unusual for great offensive players to excel on the PK. Lemieux, Gretzky, Bure, Messier, etc all took regular shifts on the penalty kill. I’m guessing there are a couple of reasons; one, their superior stick skills allows them to steal and control pucks and make plays in traffic that guys with less ability can’t routinely do. Secondly, they’re such offensive threats that the guys on the point are probably a little hesitant to challenge for 50-50 pucks for fear of getting burnt and giving up a breakaway, so more pucks are getting cleared from the zone. Semin seems to excel in both those areas. I think Backstrom, if he gets more realiable on faceoffs, can also becoame an excellent penalty killer.
I think a third point there is that these skill players have great anticipation, which can be the split-second difference between breaking up a pass and having it get through.
And I agree on Backstrom – penalty killing is in his future.
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The stats indicate 19 is already better on the PK than we’d have ever guessed.
But yes on faceoffs. Huge thing. He just doesn’t try. How many faceoffs did he take yesterday while almost standing straight up? Pathetic.
I wonder if someone (hint, hint DMG) has stats on how long it took some of the really good faceoff men to grow into that role? Is it a skill you’re born with, something learned or a combination of the two?
It’s an interesting question. I’ll have to dig around and see what kind of data’s out there and if there’s anything I can do with. If I do find anything, don’t look for it until after the trade deadline, though.
by David Getz on Mar 2, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
As I noted in the Backstrom faceoff post, Boyd Gordon was 43% and 46.3% in his first two NHL seasons, then 52, 55.8 and 57.4%, so it certainly can be done, but unlike Gordon, Nick shows no real interest in getting better there. He’s simply not competing on them far too often.
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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s bizarre because his work ethic everywhere else on the ice is great. The Caps have a goalie coach, why not a faceoff coach given how incredibly important they can be to winning and losing. I’d love to see someone like an Adam Oates come back and work with Nik and and Laich and some of the kids down in the minors.
Evason works with them a lot on the faceoffs, and given that everyone on the team who isn’t Swedish and has taken more than 33 draws is well above 50%, you’d think the problem isn’t necessarily tactical.
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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Which is really odd, given the progression he showed during his rookie season. I specifically remember it being pointed out on one of the broadcasts, and him being asked about it, too. It definitely came across that it was something he knew he needed to improve on, and was working to do so.
by TJA on Mar 2, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I think it might be a bit too judgmental to say Baxter isn’t competing. He does so many things so effortlessly it looks like he’s not trying. When he skates through the neutral zone it barely looks like he’s moving. When his difficult passes misfire it looks like he has no clue what he’s doing, but when they hit you realize what ridiculous vision and skill he has. I’m not ready to write off Baxter in the face off circle yet and I’m certainly not ready to say it’s all for lack of effort.
Watch him on draws. He takes half of ’em damn near standing up.
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Will do. But I still have a tough time concluding that it is a failure of effort rather than a failure of technique. It just doesn’t fit his MO to not try. He’s great on the boards and good on the PK, both generally “effort” skills.
I think three things go into winning draws – effort, technique and experience. He clearly doesn’t have the third of those (through no fault of his own, of course), he’s learning the first, and frankly I don’t see enough of the second. But to be sure, he’s not failing solely because he’s not trying.
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And I’m really not being judgmental when I question his “compete” level (or at least I’m not the only one saying it). When I spoke with Evason, he said this:
Well, when you’re an offensive guy, you tend to use your skill level and not worry so much about your competitive level in that area, and although Nick can win faceoffs with his skill level, if he can combine that with a tenaciousness in the circle and being real strong plus using his skill level, he’s going to be a real good faceoff guy in the years to come. … There are so many different areas you can work on with faceoffs, but it comes down to just getting your nose in there and competing and battling to win that puck.
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Oh, and I’m certainly not writing him off. He may very well become an excellent face off man someday. But that day ain’t today and it ain’t gonna be tomorrow.
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I’ve got give Bruce Boudreau credit on this one – I never would have thought to use Semin on the PK going into the season based on how he’d played in his career. But obviously Boudreau knew better than me and has been able to get Semin to bear down and be effective. Tomas Flesichmann is another story…
Yeah, it’s funny. I was ready to go with a “play Semin on the PP” post last year, but it seemed too insane to publish given his attention to defense at the time (which, of course, was why it made so much sense).
FYI, I don’t have any “play Erskine on the PP” post that I’m currently holding back.
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Did Bruce give credit to Team Russia for showing him the light? Semin killed penalties during the World Championships and apparently looked good doing so.
He did, actually. The paragraph before my pull quote from the original interview:
Last season, Semin didn’t play on the PK. But I noticed that he did that in the World Championship, and did it very well. So this season I used some of that Team Russia experience.
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Chicken or the Egg
The stats show a great correlation, but I’m not convinced on causation. Maybe BB only plays Semin on the PK when he thinks he is on his game, and on the off nights he doesn’t risk a bad Semin play on the PK. I have a hard time believing that the key to getting Semin to play consistent hockey is as simple as giving him more PK time. I do agree, however, that he has looked pretty good when he does get the opportunity. His ability to corral a loose puck in tight areas with two or more opposing players around him is such a huge advantage. His ridiculous shot also makes it very difficult to stop him from clearing the puck once he does get it (which, incidentally, I think is the biggest problem on our PK, we fail to clear the puck when we get possession).








































