Good News: Only Playoff Teams Make The Playoffs
by David Getz on Mar 18, 2009 11:30 AM EDT
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As far as boldness of statements goes "The Capitals haven't been playing up to their potential recently" ranks somewhere between "The sun will rise in the East tomorrow" and "We need oxygen to live." From Opening Night until January 9th the Capitals were 26-11-4 , since January 9th the Capitals are 18-11-2, which is not a bad record but does represent noticeable drop off in both winning percentage and points per game.
Amidst the frustration, there are two points continually brought up in an effort to stem the onset of panic. One is that other top teams are struggling, which is pretty readily apparent. The other is that the Capitals still seem to "show up" for game against rivals and playoff-caliber opponents and "play down" to weaker teams. We certainly thought it seemed that way, and our curiosity got the better of us and led us to look at and aggregate the team's numbers from the January 9th loss to Columbus and onward. Here they are:
| Playoff Teams | Bubble Teams | Non-playoff Teams | |
| Games | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| Record | 6-1-1 | 8-6-1 | 4-4-0 |
| "Winning Pct." | 81.3 | 56.7 | 50.0 |
| Points Per Game | 1.63 | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Goals/Game | 3.13 | 3.13 | 2.88 |
| Goals Against/Game | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Goal Diff./Game |
0.63 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| Shots/Game | 30.75 | 36.20 | 36.00 |
| Shots Against/Game | 30.88 | 27.87 | 29.38 |
| Save Percentage | .919 | .885 | .902 |
| Powerplay | 26.5% | 30.2% | 22.2% |
| Penalty Kill | 82.9% | 77.6% | 75.7% |
[Ed. note: Designation of teams as "playoff", "bubble", and "non-playoff" is based on their place in the standings when they played the Capitals. "Playoff" teams are those in the top four of the conference and at least five points ahead of the eighth seed. "Non-playoff" teams are those at least five points out of a playoff spot or in 13th or worst in their conference.]
The overall correlation between opponent playoff position and points per game is pretty significant: the Caps have simply been getting fewer points in games against worse opponents. Now, it would be a mistake to look at these numbers and draw too many authoritative conclusions given the relatively small sample size and the lack of controlling for any other variables. That said, there are a number of metrics - the lower shooting percentage for the Capitals, the higher shooting percentage for opponents, the Caps' lower penalty kill rate - that suggest what we've been thinking is correct, namely that the Capitals simply aren't bringing the same effort against non-playoff teams as they are against teams all but assured to be in the postseason.
Of course, that doesn't mean that we, as fans, can't be frustrated or irritated by it - after all, no one wants to spend fifty dollars on a seat to see a team float through a game. But it does mean that we should think twice before we decide the sky is falling and that another first round exit is inevitable.
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Surprising how much better the GAA is in the set in which they allow the most shots on goal against. I’d think that means, generally, that they’re keeping everything to the outside in those games.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Take a look at the Caps as your case study. High shot numbers don’t mean wins, in fact often quite the opposite (Monday night being the prime example)
Exactly – quality vs. quantity. I think they mentioned last night that the Caps are 5-6-0 when getting 40+ SOG.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
That is great stuff.
I think last year we were mentally fatigued against the Flyers for the first few games, and it cost us. From the looks of it, that won’t be a problem heading into the big dance this year.
The keyboard is mightier.
Also worth noting that we probably won’t face the Flyers in the first round, either, though it sure isn’t impossible at this point. Would definitely suck if we did.
It is looking more and more likely that it will be Pens/Flyers in the first round. Who we get is still a crapshoot.
Kind of wondering now if Montreal will even make the playoffs.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I think the Habs get in – Buffalo and Florida have apparently decided that the post season is not for them, and there’s just no one else that can qualify.
I’m praying that the Pens and Flyers end up 4th and 5th, which would give the Caps either the Rags or the Habs in the first round. I’m comfortable against either of those opponents.
DMG – great work. Not like the stats are a surprise to any Caps fan, but they prove what we all know. This team’s effort depends on the other team’s sweaters most nights.
I think that “did we get our asses kicked in the last two games” is also a factor for them.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I would agree with that as well. Any stats on that issue? BB has never let things get away in terms of prolonged losing streaks. However, I still think the opposition seems to either drive the squad to play solid or cause them to float through games.
by Carl Putnam on Mar 18, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It does, to a large extent. But, in cases where the team got spanked in the previous outing, generally they have done better, regardless of team sweater. Case study: last night. :P Not that I’m complaining, but I could wish for a little more consistency.
The good news is that this sort of consistency is very much the product of maturity and experience.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
It was a good post until you threw all those numbers in there.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 18, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Needs more badmouthing of the WaPo blog.
"Taking all common sense FAIL nominations here."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 18, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve got electric light.
And I’ve got second sight.
And amazing powers of observation.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Sunshine and purple flowers?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
But what are electrolytes?! Do you even know?!
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 18, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you really want to be technical....
Electrolytes are ions in solution that, by themselves, grant the ability to conduct electricity, as in nerve synapse responses. They have other uses as well in kidney and blood function. There are four major ones that doctors pay the most attention to:
Sodium (Na+) and Potassium (K+) – These two form the basis of all nervous system function by creating a charge gradient on the inside versus outside of a synapse cell. When an impulse is transmitted, the Na+ and K+ switch places, creating a charge gradient that looks like a ripple down the cell.
Chloride (Cl-) – I’m not entirely clear on what this one does, although as Cl- is a strong oxidant, it may play a role in bonding with free radicals and eliminating them from the bloodstream. Looking it up suggests involvement with kidney function.
Bicarbonate (CO2
- helps to maintain normal pH levels in the blood. pH balance is essential to keep the blood carrying oxygen, as hemoglobin, like most proteins, has an annoying tendency to unfold if subjected to acidic or basic conditions, not to mention what it does to the bonding surfaces.
There’s also Ca2+, which is the major ion found in muscle function – it is released into the muscles in response to neural stimulation, causing the sarcomeres to contract.
Forgive me, I’m about ten years removed from college biology, so memory is a tad fuzzy.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Mar 18, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
LOL.
I was being annoying with that response, deliberately :)
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I thought it was to be a bunch of arrogant number-crunchers with nothing better to do than to bash Capitals Insider.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Mar 18, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not mutually exclusive. Indeed, perhaps a means to an end.
by Scott in Shaw on Mar 18, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
These numbers are certainly interesting, and I’m not worried about this team, but I’ll play devils advocate here:
Playoff teams: 6-1-1 nice
Non-Playoff teams: 4-4-0 ugh glad we won’t see them come April
Bubble Teams: 8-6-1 hope we don’t catch NJ or the B’s
The good teams they beat! The bad teams they fail to show against half the time. The teams they’ll face in the first round? Not that much better than the bad teams.
I think it’s an issue of perception rather than the opposition’s talent. It seems like the team doesn’t play with much to prove against Florida or LA, but they still get up for Philly and Boston because they know those are statement games. Ergo, I think the team is still very good when they’re focused an energized and I’m not worried they won’t be able to beat most of the bubble teams when the games really count.
Like I said, playing advocate of the devil. I agree.
I’m a bit on the fence about whether I want them to get Florida or the Canes in the first round. I’d almost prefer that they get someone that they are less familiar with, and respect (thats not the best word) more.
Bubble Teams: 8-6-1 hope we don’t catch NJ or the B’s
Don’t think you’ve got to sweat that too much.
I think the biggest question/concern I have is this:
Can the Caps “get-up” when they want when it matters enough to play this game of taking games off?
I know how Boudreau feels about this idea, and he knows it can bite them hard, as in, first-round-exit hard.
I can’t help but think this behavior correlates to the general lack of experience/immaturity of this team.
Hopefully they can learn some things in the first round and still win it!
This all suggests that the worst possible matchup in the first round would be a Buffalo or Rangers or Carolina team that nobody is taking seriously anymore. The best matchup may be Montreal or a Pennsylvania team, since the Caps always seem to care about those games.
by Gould Old Days on Mar 18, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
To me, it suggest the Capitals still play well when they’re truly motivated, and I don’t think that will be a problem in the playoffs, no matter who they’re facing.
I agree. I’m more concerned about who everyone else matches up with. I want the PA 4/5 match up and I want a NJD/NYR match up. I’d prefer not to play a SE team in the first round but I’d live with it. That leaves MON, which seems like a decent match up considering how inconsistent Price has been (charitable characterization) and I’m still not sold on that team being able to hold it together through adversity.
I’d like Montreal in the first round because I don’t think they have a goalie who can steal a series, and I think most of the other teams do.
But that Pitt/Philly matchup would be a dream for someone in the Caps spot.
Definitely. Nice to know I won’t have to watch another All-PA ECF. I hope whoever loses that series manages to take a nice bite out of the winner. I don’t think PHI’s D and G can hold up to PIT’s offense so I give PIT the upper hand. PIT is also the hotter team right now. Hopefully Richards and his crew can at least make it painful.
Yes to this. I’d like to see a Pitt/Philly first round, and I’d like to see the Habs in the first round.
Although, crazy question for you lot. Let’s look at this upside down. Who would Montreal want in the first round?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
MON has won 6/8 points from PHI. They have won 1/8 points from NJD. 5/10 from BOS with one game remaining and 1 SOW and 1 SOL. 3/8 from WAS with an SOL and a last minute regulation win, thank you Alex Semin. Based on that I’d say they are praying for PHI, but that’s not going to happen. Next they probably want BOS but I don’t know if they are too uncomfortable with the idea of playing us. For sure they don’t want to see NJD again this year.
I’d think Montreal probably would rather not see us – or at least we’re not their first choice. I think they’d rather see Boston.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
That’s what I said. We played them well but I don’t we’ve necessarily dominated them. Basically, I don’t think we’ve put it in their mind that they can’t beat us.
Funny you should say that. I was listening to the Montreal beat reporter on XM yesterday and he said the Habs don’t want to face the B’s or the Devils but they could handle the Caps. No reasons why just that they’re the Habs and the Caps aren’t.
o rly?
I guess I’m paying too much attention to numbers again. Heh. In that case, I want Montreal even more now.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I can’t blame them. I would want to play the team with the fewest points in their situation too, in all likelihood. “Team would rather play #3 seed than #1 or #2 seed” isn’t exactly a slap in the face.
I also think it’s fair to say that the Caps have more question marks right now than either the B’s or the Devils, not that any of them are slouches. All I can say is bring it on.
Flyers v. Pens is a dream for pretty much everyone who doesn’t live in Pennsylvania. It’s like watching two bullies beat the crap out of each other. You don’t care who wins, you just love the spectacle.
Another good post DMG (even if it does have all that cypherin’ in it). Perhaps Semin isn’t the only player who has the attitude that the main thing now is just to stay healthy for the playoffs.
"I tried to capture the spirit of the thing"
Which is kinda funny, because Semin’s play of late has reflected that attitude less than pretty much any other forward.
I agree with the overall sentiments in this thread. Great post DMG and let’s hope the Rangers and Pens will get the matchups to do some dirty work for the Caps.
I don’t know that it matters with the Rags – Devils. If the Caps really don’t want to see someone in later rounds they better hope that teams playoff route runs through Trenton.
How about if we don’t want to deal with New Jersey? :)
Nah, kidding. We don’t face NJ in the first round unless disaster strikes for somebody, and I am confident that a motivated Caps team can make NJ work for it. Can we win? Not out of the question, and there aren’t many teams in the Eastern Conference I’d give much of a shot against New Jersey. Guaranteed? Hells no. They’re GOOD. But it’d be a matchup worth watching.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
It would be an awesome match up but NJD hasn’t beaten us in actual hockey yet. Obviously Brodeur is a game changer but he hasn’t made it past the second round since 03, and only made it past the first round once. This will be the year to test the “Brodeur should sit more so he’s rested in the playoffs” hypothesis.
I will go on record as saying that I would rather play the Devils than the Flyers. I don’t think the Caps would be overmatched vs. NJ.
To me its all about a goalie… Brodeur can win a cup with a peewee team in front of him if he gets hot… Biron, well he’s had his moments but I’ll take my chances with him.
Sure, Brodeur is a great goalie. I just think the Caps tend to play well vs. NJD, whereas PHI seems to have some kind of psychological edge over them. Perhaps it’s just my imagination, or maybe it’s that losing to NJD would be much easier to stomach. Whatever it is, I’d like to see Caps-Devils.
The Caps played well v. NJD this season but we have played TERRIBLY against the trap all year. Our offense is not patient enough to break down a trap and we are not willing to change our game to fight for ugly goals. I think a lot of the problem is that getting pretty goals and dirty goals are mutually exclusive. You can’t play for the pretty goal and settle for a dirty goal. If you play for the pretty goal you live and die by the pretty goal. To win by the dirty goal you have to make a commitment to that, which we haven’t. If we start beating NJD in the skill game a couple games into the series and they switch to the trap I think we are in A LOT of trouble.
getting pretty goals and dirty goals are mutually exclusive. You can’t play for the pretty goal and settle for a dirty goal.
As a player yes, as a team no. Ovie, Semin, Backis, Green score pretty goals, someone needs to convince Laich, Kozlov, Steckel, Fehr etc that all those pretty goals (attempts) generate rebounds and with rebounds come dirty goals.
I’m not sure what you mean with the distinction between players and team. When you play for the pretty goal you spread out all over the ice trying to open passing lanes and go back door and beat guys one on one. When you do that you just don’t have anyone in position for garbage goals. If you play for dirty goals you just get pucks deep, get them on net, and crash the net for rebounds. No fancy Dan passing around the zone, etc. I’m not sure if you can tell Baxter and AO to go play for the pretty goals and then send Fehr or Laich out and tell them to play for dirty goals. Maybe it would work, hopefully BB finds the solution.
Good point. If pretty goals mean beating guys one on one, or having 7 passes and a single shot, then I think you are right. If pretty goals mean 4 passes to get the goalie moving followed by a low shot that usually goes in, but sometimes leads to a rebound then I think that there is room for both. If everyone one the ice is playing for dirty or pretty you will only get one or the other (and ot enough of either).
New Jersey’s gotten away from the trap this year and while I’m sure they’d still employ it if they needed to, it’s not the same trap of the late 90’s/early 2000’s
Oh definitely not. Zach Parise is having a huge season because Sutter is letting him attack. This ain’t the 90’s Devils by any stretch. But, at the same time, it’s still a Lou Lamoriello team that stresses team defense and winning above all else. These guys have been together for a decade in a lot of cases and they haven’t forgotten how to trap. If the Caps go up 2-0 playing run-and-gun hockey do you really think Sutter would hesitate to lock it down and implement the trap? I don’t, and if that happens I’m very concerned about how our offense will respond. It takes a lot of patience to beat a trapping team, and, as I said, we have not shown that this year.
And if you mean “It’s not the same trap” because it’s different as far as X’s and O’s I don’t think that is the salient factor. The trap is still alive, it has changed to adapt to the rule changes (no 2 line pass rule, most significantly) but there are enough teams that use it to show it is still alive and well. MIN, CBJ, BOS last year and sometimes this year, sometimes the pisles, and LAK all do a great job of clogging up the middle and shutting things down. That is what frustrates us. No coincidence that all those teams except for BOS (which actually doesn’t trap us very much because they try to go skill v. skill) have had success against us this year.
By “the same trap” I mean in terms of overall effectiveness. No doubt New Jersey stresses teamwork and defense but a team is going to play a style better if they’ve been playing it pretty much all game, every game than if they only deploy it strategically.
That is a good point. This team struggles a lot vs. the trap, and the Devils are a historically good trapping team (although they have been more open this year). I think this is going to be a bridge to cross at some point regardless of who the Caps face – opposing scouts and coaches must have noticed that even the worst teams in the league have shut down the Caps with a trap.
I’ll take Caps/Devils in the ECF. People constantly harp that Brodeur “could win a cup with a peewee team” and I’m not doubting he’s a first ballot HoFer. But in reality he has never had to play with a peewee team. All of his Cup teams had at least two HoF dmen, as well as several other HoF/borderline HoF players throughout the lineup. Brodeur played awesome in every playoffs the Devils won the cup but I don’t honestly think that HE won the cups for any of them. You can’t look at any of those teams and honestly say they had no business competing, like the Buffalo teams Hasek carried, for example. Brodeur also has 0 Conn Smythes, and even lost the Conn Smythe to the goalie he beat in 03.
100% agree. Marty has played for good teams. Those good teams have certainly helped him out. But he also played for teams that scored 2 goals a game and won the cup. You can say system supporting cast, sure I don’t disagree. The fact is that Marty is a game (and therefore Series) changer, and there is nobody in the league that I would choose over him for a playoff run.
The problem with the Hall of Fame is that it’s entirely retrospective. Some people are obvious Hall of Famers while they’re still playing but that is usually after playing for quite a while (like Brodeur).
I’m sure winning a couple of cups bulstered the other players’ creds but its hard to say who’s going to be a HoFer at the beginning or middle of their career.
Finally a team that wins the Stanley cup needs to be a pretty good team, not just a goalie…Goalies don’t often score points.
Is anyone else as sick as I am about the “Ovechkin doesn’t back check, look at this one example where his hand was caught in the glass” people? I just read the Rumors chat at puck daddy and it devolved into ovie doesn’t back check, doesn’t deserve the hart.
[Comment From Clay]
Ovie does not and has not ever played a complete game. Your not MVP if you don’t backcheck and play solid d. Taking yourself out of plays is not MVP material
Comments like this make it obvious this guy has never watched a caps game.
If I had a dollar for every idiot who’s spouted something about either Ovi or the Caps this season that shows they don’t really watch them at all, I wouldn’t need to work for a year.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
the way to fix this is a deep playoff run. force everyone to watch caps games.
who am i kidding? there will always be haters.
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 18, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell, we hate Crosby. Guess it goes with being a star. :)
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I hate Crosby, but like Malkin. Go figure. Maybe I’m the anti-Don Cherry?! My suits ARE just one color……
I’d be surprised if anyone hates Malkin here, other than on general principle. The guy really could not do any less to annoy, and he made nice with Ovi to boot.
There will always be Ovi haters because he does controversial things. He celebrates wildly, he takes runs at guys and is very physical. He says things about God wanting him to score #50 in Atlanta. He’s constantly praised in the media. I’m sure if I were predisposed to disliking him (whether as a rival fan, xenophobe, Cherry disciple, whatever), those things would be very irritating. Kind of like when Sid bitches/moans/jumps people/punches guys in the balls/complaints/gets hyped as the next Gretzky.
This is an exceptional post.
The Washington Post will now promptly write more about TEB’s travel schedule or how much Brooks Laich works hard. This is why papers like the Post have fewer and fewer readers, and why the Rink is booming.
by TylerG on Mar 18, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
sad to have missed your POV on the thrashers recap thread yesterday.
so i wasn’t here when la canfora covered the caps, but i imagine he didn’t take it easy on the team during rough stretches. question to the longtime fans: was there a noticeable difference?
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 18, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks.
Yes, definite difference. Much less fan-yness, more digging and deeper reporting.
Still, the problem is not just the beat writer, it’s a paper that doesn’t have a hockey-plugged in infrastructure. I mean, every week there is 1-2 posts here that are better and more analytical than anything that’s been in the Post all season. JP, DMG and Pepper rock.
To be fair, it’s not just the Post. Just recently, the Raleigh News & Observer didn’t send their beat reporter on the Canes road trip to Chicago and Dallas and instead just picked up the AP feed. Miami doesn’t send their guy to a lot of away games. The Philly Inquirer recently fired long time beat reporter Tim Panaccio. Look at Denver, they just lost the Rocky Mountain News and now they’ve only got the Denver Post covering the Avs. If I were Tarik, given how little the editors care about hockey and the deep financial mess the Post is in, I’d be worrying about my professional future. I doubt they’d ever cut local coverage, but I could easily see them stop sending him on long road trips.
Frankly, I think the Post is actually pretty good. No traditional media source is ever going to come up with the level of analysis and amount of content you’ll get from a site like this. I feel like the best we can hope for is to have a nice primary source for news from practices and road trips, and TEB/Capitals Insider does a good job of that, IMO.
Maybe I would feel differently if I were a Post subscriber and read the newspaper in print, but I’m not and I don’t. If any newspaper in North America can hold a candle to the quality and quantity of insight and analysis you get here for any team/sport, I’d be impressed.
by grapejoos on Mar 18, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
basically, i agree. as a primary source, and supplemented by this blog, the WaPo serves a functional role.
but it’s too easy to become satisfied with TEB’s familiar news and notes. caps fans are seasoned to be thrilled with any coverage whatsoever. meanwhile, La Canfora’s blog is FILLED with posts like this one (“Draft Review”). seriously, click on that. he has sources, he explains the organizational structure, and he raises a lot of valid concerns. he uses the blog medium not just for its immediacy, but to expound on his thoughts and provide a forum for discussion/analysis.
TEB is not an employee of the caps or the NHL, yet his articles and his blog sometimes read more like Bill Ladson than Barry Svrlgua. in the past year, I think it’s fair to say that TEB willfully ignored (to varying degrees) brewing controversies surrounding Olaf Kolzig, Michael Nylander and the verizon center ice conditions. at the end of the day, he’d written articles about all three. but for months on end, he was the man with the microphone and the access that we were counting on for some “insider” reporting, and he didn’t give us much to chew on.
wouldn’t it be great to ask BB about flash’s playing time relative to fehr? or to address the leadership within the locker room (something, as “outsiders,” we are basically conjecturing about)?
i’m sure there are examples of insightful articles by TEB, and i realize i’m painting with broad strokes here. i just think it’s fair to expect more, especially when the ’skins and nats (and even the DC united) are here for comparison.
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 18, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
man, i can never spell svrluga’s name correctly!
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 18, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
here’s another example.
when Chris Needham at Capitol Punishment retired from blogging, WaPo Nationals beat writer Svrluga posted this obituary online:
This is a sad day. I told Chris that I considered him my ombudsman. If I made some half-arsed analysis, he’d call me on it. Ask mlb.com’s Bill Ladson if he’s ever been called out by Capitol Punishment. Chris came with the hammer, and it was almost always well-deserved. (And when it wasn’t, well, let’s just say I emailed him and let him know why I was so grossly inaccurate in my assessments.)
Capitol Punishment was funny, analytical, sarcastic, snarky — a more irreverant, dare I say better, version of Nationals Journal. It even had Stan Kasten reading and calling Chris from time to time.
meanwhile, TEB and katie only occasionally acknowledge Japers’ Rink during their link roundups, and there are moments when we question if they even wander over here. imagine if TEB considered Japers’ RInk his ombudsman.
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 18, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You make good points. It could be better, for sure, and perhaps that’s what we should be expecting. You can definitely count me in the category of those Caps fans that are thrilled with any coverage whatsoever, so I probably suffer from unreasonably low expectations.
My local paper, the Manassas messenger or whatever it is didn’t have any coverage after we beat Boston the time before last and it really ticked me off so I wrote an email to the sports editor to complain, and the next game (I think it was against the Islanders) was on the front page. I would like to imagine that it was because of me.
Playoff contention stats
These stats are great for showing the overall team performance as opposed to the individual performances that result in the team stats.
Does anyone know where I can see player stats on a game-by-game level for previous years? It “seems” to me – from memory – that Erskine turns it up late in the season/in the playoffs. I want to see if the stats prove this. Not just for the playoff series, but leading up to it.
Might be ammo supporting if someone plays strong (see not coasting) leading into the playoffs they play well in the playoffs (compared to their overall season avg)
Start here and click on any given year for that year’s game log. A quick big picture – his career splits by month (GP, G, A, Pts, +/-, PIM):
October (36, 1, 4, 5, -6, 87)
November (50, 0, 3, 3, -19, 110)
December (34, 1, 5, 6, 1, 70)
January (40, 3, 1, 4, 4, 81)
February (47, 0, 2, 2, -9, 48)
March (40, 1, 3, 4, -5, 109)
April (18, 0, 1, 1, -5, 46)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Better to have this problem than the opposite.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Mar 18, 2009 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
First of all, great analysis. This shows there is a certain motivation for playing hard against quality opposition.
I think part of the issue here is that the Caps played very well early in the year, when every team in the league not situatied on Long Island or in Georgia were still in the hunt. Now that other teams have fallen off (Ottawa, Atlanta, Tampa, Colorado, etc.) there is a tendency to let up. The teams that have nothing to lose also do have everything to play for, in that they are playing for their jobs. They know if the team finishes near the bottom that there will be a roster turn-over in the offseason. How many people here think the Isles will retain more than half of their current roster? Or Atlanta? Or Toronto? Players on teams that are out are playing hard so they can say “Yes, we need to rebuild, and I’m part of that process…”
There is a motivation for the Caps when they play a top team. The Caps from 2003 until last season were regarded as an NHL also-ran. They play the top teams with a chip on their shoulder, trying to tell the league that they belong in the discussion of the league’s elite teams. They play hard in those games to prove that. They don’t play as hard in games where the opponent isn’t one that is among the elite, and sometimes it bites them (example are recent losses to Atlanta and Colorado).
In the playoffs, it all changes, though, as there are four seven game seasons that you have to finish first in to win the Cup…
TOR will probably have a high degree of turn over but the pisles and trash will look more similar than you expect. The trash are going to keep almost that entire D corps together and at least 2 forward lines will be back. The pisles will return 3 full forward lines and 2 d pairs. Both teams have a lot of young guys that they are trying to build a team around, TOR is the only one in massive restructuring mode.
I really don’t think the Thrashers are going to be that bad next year, either. Not in playoff contention, but not bad.
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