It Starts At The Top
by J.P. on Mar 17, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
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Since authoring "The Sequel" on February 18, Alex Ovechkin has racked up six goals and seven assists in a dozen game, a 102-point pace over the course of a full season. He had a ten-game point-scoring streak snapped last night, and has been held off the scoresheet just two times in his past 22 outings.
Not bad.
But do you want to know what is bad? Over that 12-game span mentioned above, AO has a minus-8 rating (including back-to-back minus-2's in his last two games), and hasn't had a plus rating in a single game. Not one. And his five even strength points are just two more than Shaone Morrisonn has over that same stretch.
Alex Ovechkin, it seems, is bored. Bored enough to take shifts off. Bored enough to not backcheck on every play as if the season depended on it... which may be fine, because the season doesn't depend on it. Yet.
Soon enough, though, one bad shift might be the difference between advancing a round in the playoffs and going home disappointed. Again. But for now, a subpar effort isn't terribly costly, and so they happen. And when they do, one often needs to look no further than at the team's de facto captain, from whom the other 17 skaters on any given night take their lead - as AO goes, so go the Caps. That's why he's the League's most valuable player.
In some ways, it's too bad AO isn't a little more motivated by individual accomplishments and accolades (he certainly doesn't have a second consecutive Hart Trophy locked up quite yet), because the team could use a more focused version of the Great Eight right now. And perhaps it's been a necessary break of sorts for him. But it's just about time for him to put the team back on his broad shoulders. It's time for the leader to lead.
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When AO leads by example, the Caps tend to dominate or overcome incredible odds. See the Dec. Rangers match up or last year’s playoff run for proof.
I can agree with the “bored” belief because even as a fan, it’s hard to get excited about the last two weeks of hockey when we are seemingly locked into the third playoff slot and just waiting to see who we draw.
But boredom more often than not leads to missed opportunities, and these final divisional games offer the opportunity to had a second seed rather than the third.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions
Since I like to play devil's advocate...
I will note that #8 gets a ton of ice time every game, and that the opposition usually plays it’s top line against Ovechkin & co. These 2 factors do help to increase the odds of Ovechkin being on the ice when an opposing goal is scored.
Back to reality though…while I am concerned about the “effort” seen not just by Ovechkin but the entire team over the past two weeks or so in certain games, I’ve decided to not panic until the playoffs arrive. Last year, a lot of “experts” said the Caps had no gas left in the tank after their incredible late season run to sustain them into the playoffs…and “they” may have been right—let’s see what happens when that isn’t the case.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Mar 17, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions
Needs more stats.
"Japers is ok, the general level of hockey knowledge is probably better there than here... but they never miss a chance to be arrogant about it, for example insulting THIS blog, which I find distasteful and hurts the site credibility. Also, they rely way too much on numbers to judge players."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 17, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
sorry to go off topic, but what blog wrote your “sig”?
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Clued in now, thanks for the guidance.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re ok, BP, and your general level of hockey knowledge is probably better than mine… but you never miss a chance to be arrogant about it, for example insulting THIS post, which I find distasteful and hurts your credibility. Also, you rely way too much coherent thoughts and decent grammar.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Between the quote from Semin below about the playoffs, Ovie’s quote from earlier in the week about needed Feds for the playoffs, and Feds a couple of weeks ago talking about getting ready for the playoffs, it definitely apeears there is a bit of a coasting mentality at this juncture.
I guess the question to be answered is, is this it for the next few weeks or will a few losses like last night get a bit of that hunger back? And, if that is the mentality, how quickly can they turn it back on once the playoffs get going?
But honestly, if its Ovie that’s biored and Semin just gearing up for the playoffs, and Feds the veteran who’s been through it all talking the ‘save it for the playoffs talk’ – I have a hard time seeing the rest of the team not following suit.
This is an issue with everyone else on the team rather than with Ovie. And, I will put it on lack of leadership rather than everyone else. If Ovie has to play every game like he played for the closing minutes of the second yesterday in order for the team to play hard, this team is in big trouble. So is the organization, Ovie isn’t going to make it through another 3 years if he has to play like that.
I hate it when guys take shifts off, I hate it when guys don’t back check, but if Ovie isn’t there, someone else needs to be. Semin has done it a couple of times, but nobody else on the team seems to be willing to step into the role and move the guys forward if Ovie isn’t the one doing it.
How much do I want Bill Guerin or Eric Cole right now.
I agree that the rest of the team shouldn’t need Ovechkin to play out of his mind to get motivated, but that doesn’t absolve Ovechkin from those responsibilities. Think about it like off-ice leadership: the team shouldn’t need a rousing speech from their captain to get fired up, but if he doesn’t do it, part of the blame goes to him, no?
“This is an issue with everyone else on the team rather than with Ovie.”
In all due respect, that’s ridiculous. If you’re insinuating that AO isn’t one of this team’s leaders and that his energy level – positive or negative – doesn’t rub off on his teammates, then I’m not sure what team you’ve been watching.
Should he have to be the best player on earth every night for the Caps to win? Of course not. And on those nights, other guys need to show up.
But when he’s taking shifts, periods and games off, only showing up for stat-padding power play time, the rest of the team can’t help but take their cues from him.
A month of minus-8 hockey and just five even strength points is everyone else’s problem, not AO’s? Please.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 17, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Incredibly Disrespectful!!!
I think that we are talking two sides of the same coin.
I’m not insuating that he isn’t a leader, and I’m not implying that he shouldn’t be a leader. Exactly the opposite. I’m very comfortable with him taking the team on his shoulders. The problem I see is that he’s the only guy that anyone takes their cues from. You yourself have spoken about lack of secondary scoring, everyone expects Ovie (and too some degree Semin) to do it for them.
If Ovie’s heel is hurting or he was out until 2 at an MMA fight, or he’s a step slow because he’s bored someone needs to do some a** kicking. Either to get Ovie in gear, or set the tone themselves. Start a fight, get a goal while Coburn is checking you in the head, hussle and throw your body around in both zones.
Also, Ovie is really young. He looks to guys like Feds to set a tone. When Fedorov says in late Feb. that he is struggling to be motivated and that they are looking to the playoffs, how can Ovie not take a lead from that.
My statement is to say that he is the only one that motivates anyone, and that can’t be the case. Does that absolve Ovi of taking shifts off? Absolutely not. Does that indict the rest of the team? Absolutely.
just kidding about the title by the way :)
Word. We’re on the same page. I was just making sure I wasn’t getting blasted for daring to criticize the Sacred Cow.
In an effort to head off those comments before they start, I offer this to distract them from writing what they were thinking of writing:
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s not just a pony. It’s a unicorn!
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
JP, your general knowledge of mystical creatures is better than mine, and on cue, you didn’t miss a chance to be arrogant about it.
:)
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s her tramp stamp. She’s naughty.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Or, the German version: Arschgeweih
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s….so….pretty….like a Semin behind the back pass to Backstrom streaking across the slot then to Ovechkin…
by David Getz on Mar 17, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Have you ever considered a “My Little Powerplay” t-shirt for Japers’ Rink?
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course…it’s just sometimes…the cute passes…make me angry.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Make no mistake, I have no problem with a cute-but-effective power play. The unicorn above is for people who only want to see the lollipops, rainbows and puppy dogs in the world (and if Tyler was here, I know exactly what he’d say right now).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Radical Idea...
…take the “A” of of AO’s jersey and put the “C” on it. If you want to really inspire him to lead, that might be the way to do it.
I know that Clark is the captain, but if it gets AO motivated, and gets the team inspired again, he’d be 100% in favor of it.
I tend to agree here, for two reasons – the added burden could distract him from doing what he has always done (i.e. kicking ass and taking names) and, as Sct112 notes and, frankly, he tends to find all the motivation he needs when he needs it (this post notwithstanding).
The “C” hasn’t helped Sid. Or Toews. Or Lecavalier (when he was younger). I just don’t think the timing is right for it.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ovechkin needs to earn the C, and while some would argue that 65 goals followed by another 50 goal season is earned it enough, I disagree.
Ovie needs a better grasp of English, and perhaps another season or two to mature. There’s no harm in giving him an A, and there’s actually quite a lot of leadership on the team outside of Clark and Ovie. You have Poti, Fedorov, and Brashear, all vets who can drive home the message as well as any young gun can.
Perhaps in three years, our Captains will look something like C = Ovechkin, A = Green, A = Laich/Backstrom/Bradley, but I see no reason to rush a C on Ovechkin’s chest right now.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s pretty much my stance. You give a guy a ‘C’ because he’s proven that he deserves it, not as an effort to try and motivate him. That’s why I think Laich is the team’s logical captain in waiting.
Laich has future coach written all over him.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
it will be a freakin travesty if Laich is not given the C next.
by ns on Mar 17, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Ovie gets it next — i just don’t see how that won’t happen. He’s so vocal and outgoing and looked-up to already. I like Laich as the Captain, but I don’t see it happening.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 17, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that that would be a mistake.
skills <> leadership
Ovie has some learning to do. I expect he will get there, but he isn’t there yet.
It’s not that I was recommending Ovie for the position, I just don’t see how the next Captain couldn’t be him. Clark has got to heal and make his way back, or else I honestly think it’ll be Ovie’s. But we’ll see. Boudreau doesn’t seem to have any plans to change anything.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 17, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it was brought up during the Nashville game, but maybe the heel hurts him more, hence (the Gagne play aside) the lack of consistent two-way work?
"Japers is ok, the general level of hockey knowledge is probably better there than here... but they never miss a chance to be arrogant about it, for example insulting THIS blog, which I find distasteful and hurts the site credibility. Also, they rely way too much on numbers to judge players."
I like the boldness of calling out the leader (and best player in the league). The #‘s don’t lie, I’ve been telling this to my brother for a few games (but I didn’t realize he was without a plus game in this stretch.
I hope we clinch a spot sooner rather then later and rest him a few games in the end of the year. Screw the points race, I know he wants it, but I’d rather him be 100% healthy for the playoffs.
Rest him for a spell, let his heel heal.
congrats to JP for sparking up another Puck Daddy article.
Love his commentors:
23. Posted by Matt Tue Mar 17, 2009 2:57 pm EDT Report Abuse
@11: “Since when are Caps a "respected Stanley Cup contender”???"
Since Wysh took over this blog and basically feeds every Japers Rink post here.
Can we get another Brodeur homer post? At least those are thought provoking.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’m amazed most of them were able to figure out how to sign up for an account, and then peck and type their messages.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sick of the “Ovechkin only scores because he shoots so much, if [player] shot that much, he’d have fifty goals!”. Yeah, but no one else does shoot that much because no one else has the athleticism of Ovechkin so no one else can do it.
Well it’s the only argument they have these days, now that the “Ovechkin IS the Caps offense” accusation is dead.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Its a frustrating argument for me as well. To claim that he doesn’t make the players around him better is just crazy… (hence this entire post) Oh, and he has 40 assists to go with all those goals.
“Yes, but he only gets assists when his shots generate rebounds that are put in.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The very worst. Worse than a secondary assist because the player is being selfish by shooting the puck for his own glory rather than trying to help his teammates to achieve.
Notice how there is no “I” in Crosby (though there is “cry sob”), but there is one in Ovechkin.
Ahem.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 17, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Michael Jordan only scored so much because he shot so much. Babe Ruth only hit so many homers because he swung so much. Wilt Chamberlain only had sex with 20,000 women because he macked so much.
I fail to see how AO shooting so much detracts from his achievements rather than enhances them.
Know what they call the trophy for the guy who scores the most goals in a season? Of course you do. Know what they call the trophy for the guy with the highest shooting percentage?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Right. Plus, ask people who they think the greatest goal scorer in NHL history is and I doubt very many people would say Craig Simpson, Charlie Simmer, or Paul MacLean, who are the NHL’s career leaders in shooting percentage.
Related (tangentially, at least): Pepper met Craig Simpson’s sis, Christine (of Versus reporting fame), in Toronto and says she’s attractive in person.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Her?
"Japers is ok, the general level of hockey knowledge is probably better there than here... but they never miss a chance to be arrogant about it, for example insulting THIS blog, which I find distasteful and hurts the site credibility. Also, they rely way too much on numbers to judge players."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 17, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
And really, all these other players that apparently could shoot that much, and thus score more goals than AO with their higher shooting % clearly just choose not to, so as not to be selfish like AO. Certainly it has nothing to do with the talent to actually get that many shots on goal. Anyone can do it. They just choose not to. It is such a ridiculous argument that they just hope becomes fact if they say it enough.
I smell a new sig…
"Japers is ok, the general level of hockey knowledge is probably better there than here... but they never miss a chance to be arrogant about it, for example insulting THIS blog, which I find distasteful and hurts the site credibility. Also, they rely way too much on numbers to judge players."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 17, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Its fun to mess with his commentors....
Because they’re so predictable…For example, I posted:
Cue Pens fanboys jobbing in 5….4….3…2….
And not a half minute later:
I do not think he has been the front runner ever this season. Malkin has been better all season.
Again, i think his selfish play has to be wearing thin on his team mates. i watched last nights game and there is no shot he doesn’t like. and when he couldn’t hit the net he leapt into everyone on the ice. I haven’t seen even an Avery take that many runs and cheap shots in a single game.
MVP he is not.
ao is a giveaway machine – look at malkin – #1 in takeaways. enough said. maybe crosby could even sneak in there ahead of ao.
Like clockwork…
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Dear Guy Who’s So Impressed With Giveaways:
Click here, then crawl back into your hole.
Signed,
The rest of us
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 17, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m sure that you’ve covered this somewhere in another post, but how are adjusted giveaways and takeaways calculated?
Straight from the horse’s mouth, err, webpage:
The NHL keeps track of what they call RTSS stats which include hits, giveaways, takeaways, blocked shots, etc. While these are nice stats to take a look at they are relatively useless as presented by the NHL. The problem is that game monitors in different arenas have different ideas of what is a hit or a giveaway or a takeaway, etc. Some cities are really stingy in giving players credits for these stats while others are quite generous in crediting players. So what I have done is to attempt to remove these biases by adjusting the stats to reduce the number of stats awarded in ‘generous’ cities and boosting the number of stats awarded in stingy cities. So far I have done this for hits, giveaways and takeaways for both teams and players…
I assume that means averaging everything out and finding out how far each city deviates from the middle, and applying that coefficient to the total. Or something.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
My guess is they figure out what the average is, figure out how much different each arena is, and normalize it.
For example: say they found the Verizon Center credits 60% more giveaways than the average rink. As a result they take the percentage increase (60) and make an effort to control for it by doing to following: divide 1 by 1.6 (or 100 by 160), which gives you .625. You take that .625 and multiply it by the guy’s home giveaways. So if someone has 80 giveaways at VC, and assume they’re being credited with 60% more than they would most places, you multiply .625 by 80, and get 50. The player “should” have 50 giveaways but the scorer at VC has inflated them (50*1.6 = 80).
How detailed they get, I don’t know, but that’s more or less how it works.
for the sake of some PD readers who may be dropping by thanks to Greg’s link, could you explain it like we are all five-year-olds…
:)
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
There you go with all those “numbers” again. Arrogant bastard.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 17, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think there are words to describe how much I love numbers, really. I want to go back in time and get a BS in applied mathematics.
You'd make a great math professor...
Numbers and DMG: Partners in freedom
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
People could major in Japersian Analysis by pairing that class with my Sarcasm 501.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
They can only get into the class after they’ve passed Stephen Pepper’s “French Philosophers and hockey” class.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
but that’s barring if they’ve passed “Unicorns and Ponies 101” god help you if you don’t pass that one.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve got no time for amateur purveyors of the sarcastical arts.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 17, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You sound like the Baryshnikov of sarcasm. So graceful.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
How about a bacchanalia of egoism?
"I tried to capture the spirit of the thing"
by tuvanhillbilly on Mar 17, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You’d make a great math professor…
I appreciate that, but I really, really don’t think it’s the case.
HA
not if your first crack at it gets you nothing but blank faces so your second effort is:
"It uses math to make it like the same person is scoring all the NHL games".
I’m still waiting for him to break out the cartoon version of that explanation. I think it would better inform the masses.
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
You adjust the number of giveaways so that the total in one arena matches the league average. How’s that? :D
I was answering CapitalsKremlin, trying to simplify it for him (although your original post is easy enough)
I was just joking around, making fun of PD readers…
…
…
Can I get a flow chart?
by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 17, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
One more time
It’s not just takeaways/giveaways that they’re skewing, it’s a lot of stats. Just so that I can beat a dead horse into hot dog meat, here’s my post from a while back about faceoff discrepancies.
Honestly, why does nobody take me serial?I?
Honestly, why does nobody take me serial?I?
I really can’t say. I mean, you apparently have a clipboard.
Takeaways/Giveaways/Hits
The NHL keeps track of what they call RTSS stats which include hits, giveaways, takeaways, blocked shots, etc. While these are nice stats to take a look at they are relatively useless as presented by the NHL. The problem is that game monitors in different arenas have different ideas of what is a hit or a giveaway or a takeaway, etc. Some cities are really stingy in giving players credits for these stats while others are quite generous in crediting players. So what I have done is to attempt to remove these biases by adjusting the stats to reduce the number of stats awarded in ‘generous’ cities and boosting the number of stats awarded in stingy cities. So far I have done this for hits, giveaways and takeaways for both teams and players. I have also taken a look at how many giveaways have led to shots on goal and goals against but in doing so instead of using adjusted stats I only looked at road stats which would eliminate a significant portion of the bias in the RTSS stats. It’s not perfect but it is better than nothing
Can I also mention....
That the Pens Fanboys over that at PD are only slightly less annoying than the Wings Fanboys?
Every single topic….GO WINGS!!
Even something completely unrelated to said Wings….GO WINGS!!
We get it…
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Mar 17, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
My frustration with Ovie stems from occasions when it’s clear that he “turns it on,” and puts forth 100% effort. He’s so good that his 85-90% effort is enough to get it done most of the time, but on occasions, it’s clear that he gives that last 10%. This wouldn’t necessarily be a problem, except for the fact that he tends to do this only when the Caps are already down by a couple of goals. For example, he suddenly woke up and started hitting everything in sight over halfway through the 2nd period last night, but by that point, the game was already out of hand. I’m still baffled as to why he didn’t start the game with that level of effort.
The other problem is, when he does suddenly start playing at 100%, he is usually trying to do everything himself (a disturbing pattern that he shares with Semin, Green and some other Caps on occasion). This sort of one man show works but seldomly, and it certainly won’t fly in the playoffs.
Last night...
He started hitting after getting slashed repeatedly all damn game without any calls. Finally he got fed up and started laying into everyone he could find on that shift.
The player I’ve been impressed with as far as “Caps down a few goals” energy level has been Fehr. He always seems to be the one to turn it up a notch when the team’s already been beaten down for the night (Flashback to MIN game earlier this year). Maybe he’s trying to show BB something when he does this.
My frustration withOvieKozlov stems from occasions when it’s clear that he "turns it on," and puts forth 100% effort.
Kozlov is a little different for me, because it’s so hard to tell when he is, or is not putting forth 100%. Part of this is because he’s a big guy with a smooth skating stride. With Ovie, it can be really blatant – he’ll suddenly start dipping down below the dots in his own zone, whether to pick up loose pucks or deliver a hit.
Nobody’s ever going to be able to go 100% for 60 minutes of 82 games. I just got annoyed last night because he was sleepwalking for a period, especially defensively, and then all of a sudden, he turned it on. Maybe he realized that his team needed the boost, or maybe it was out of frustration. Either way, it implies that he was leaving something on the table before that point. It would have been nice if he had come out on the first shift with that level of intensity.
Our Magic Number
All these players talking like we’re already in the playoffs.
11 games left. Our magic number is still 13. Until that number is 0, we’re not where we need to be.
What concerns me most is we have very few games against high-quality opponents left this season. I’m not so much worried about the team not winning enough games, it’s being prepared for the level of competition they will face in the opening rounds. I kinda hope we draw a SE opponent to open, not cause I think it will be easy, but because we’ve worn them down over the past few weeks.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 8:46 AM EST)
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