Assessing Mike Green's Norris Trophy Credentials
by David Getz on Feb 9, 2009 11:30 AM EST
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Six weeks or so ago Mike Green, while indisputably among the NHL's best defensemen, was not a serious contender for the Norris Trophy. In fact, to suggest that he deserved serious consideration could easily get a Capitals fan labeled a homer.
How quickly things can change.
Green's recent run which, in addition to his six consecutive games with a goal, has seen him register ten points (five goals) in his last four games, nineteen points (nine goals) in his last twelve games, and twenty-six points (eleven goals) since Christmas Day, has solidified his place among the NHL's elite blueliners and has put his name on the Norris Trophy shortlist. Green's hot streak has also attracted a good deal of attention around the league as Sports Illustrated, NHL.com, James Mirtle's From the Rink, Puck Daddy, Kukla's Korner, and The Bleacher Report have all run articles on Green's Norris qualifications in recent days.
Even for Capitals fans who have been watching him all season, the extent of Green's statistical achievements may be surprising:
| Total | Rank | |
| Goals | 19 | 1st |
| Assists | 28 | 7th |
| Points | 47 | 1st |
| +/- | 21 | 5th |
| TOI Per Game |
25:34 | 9th |
| Points Per Game | 1.15 | 1st |
| Points Per 60 Min |
1.78 | 1st |
| +/- on 60 |
1.87 | 1st |
| Corsi | 17.1 | t - 2nd |
What may be even more impressive than Green's ranking in these categories is the difference between Green's numbers and those trailing him in the the statistics where he's setting the pace. For example, Green's nineteen goals has him five ahead of Nashsville's Shea Weber, while eleven defensemen are within five goals of Weber's total of fourteen. Additionally, Green has a five six point lead over Montreal's Andrei Markov, while seven blueliners are withing six points of Markov and Green's 1.12 1.15 points per game are 0.27 0.30 points per game more than second place Dan Boyle, while there are twenty-five defensemen within 0.30 points per game of Boyle. Green's not just been the best offensive defenseman in the NHL this year, he's been in a class of his own.
Of course, the Norris Trophy doesn't necessarily go to the League's best offensive defenseman and Green, for all his talents, is not among the League's best in his own end. Come June the question might be whether whether Green's dominance in terms of offensive production is enough to propel him past candidates who are better defensive players.
With that balance in mind, here's how Green compares statistically to other leading Norris candidates:
Having seen the numbers, do you buy or sell Mike Green as a legitimate Norris Trophy contender? If so, should he win? If not, who would you vote for ahead of him and why?
[Ed. note: For explanations of +/-ON, Quality of Competition, and Quality of Teammates, please follow the links to behindthenet.ca. For an explanation of the Corsi number please visit this Japers' Rink post from October.]
[Ed. note: Per J.P.'s comment on this post, Mike Green statistics have been updated to reflect his additional assist.]
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No love for Dion Phaneuf, DMG? I know his stats aren’t sexy, but he should be in the conversation.
While he’s among the top-3 offensive talents on the blueline, I don’t think Green is really and truly a Norris guy until he tightens up in the defensive zone.
Phaneuf is one of my favorite players, but he’s -11 on a first place team (which is also the team worst) and only has more points than two of the ten players listed, so I don’t think he’s a contender this year.
Intersting that Green gets less ‘love’ from Caps fans than anyone else? Could it be that you guys see him so much that you know his faults even better than most?
no lack of love...
To me, the Norris should be weighted for defense.
When the NHL comes around to create the Orr Award for best offensive Dman, 52 is a shoe in.
I agree wholeheartedly. The Norris is a defensive award, and it needs to be awarded as such. As long as there’s the Selke, though, shouldn’t there be an Orr?
Football's boring. Get over it.
That would be sweet, thought the Selke has gotten away from purely a defensive award as well.
Really, you could have three different D awards – Langway for defensive Ds, Orr for offensive Ds and Norris for all-around Ds.
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I have no doubt Gary would love the idea of trophy proliferation. It is a good PR move (more things to hype) but really how far are we going to take this? Do we have the Gretzky award for most assists? Crosby award for most secondary assists? Where is the line? And, more importantly, when we get to a point where we have 30 awards is Gary going to mandate that one player from each team wins an award?
Crosby award for most secondary assists?
There’s a lot of reasons to dislike Crosby but that ain’t one of them. If you look at the numbers, the vast majority of his assists are first assists and he always ranks high in first assists per 60 and low in secondary assists per 60.
Indeed – 1.38 primary assists per 60 and .51 secondary assists per 60 at even strength and 3.2 to 1.14 at 5-on-4 (both ratios, incidentally, trounce or boy Nicky).
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Phaneuf is a terrible defensive player, at least this year. He’s going to become the gold-standard example of how hitting <> good defense.
1) Great run down DMG. However the NHL tends to nominate/pick players not only on their current stats, but their past achievements as well. Picking a player based on PAST season success is not new/unique to the Norris. Annually you can find virtually all the awards have some degree of past success being one factor in deciding who the 3 Finalists end up
2) This year, unlike the recent past, the race is wide open. Many are now rightfully looking at Mike Green. Hard to ignore someone who might score 30 goals and be a +30 or more. That said, all things being equal its probably Chara’s to lose. That’s not an endorsement, just a pragmatic prediction
What is everyone basing the “Chara’s to lose” statement on. I’ve made it and I’ve heard it several times but I’m not sure what that is actually based on at this point.
I think it’s several things: Chara’s widely regarded as one of the league’s best defensemen and deserving of an award and to a lot of people this might be the year they give it to him instead of Lidstrom. Plus, he’s the captain and ice time leader on one of the best teams in the NHL.
So it’s intangibles? I’m not saying that doesn’t/shouldn’t weigh in, but you can argue that Wideman is playing better on the Bruins than Chara is. If you are looking at offensive numbers it has to be Green.
Green also kills Z in P/IH (points per inch of height).
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I think it’s that, with no clear front runner, people are using intangibles and the feeling that Chara deserves to be recognized for all the years he was great, but slightly less great than Lidstrom.
Far too often, awards committee will look at “Who won it last year? Oh, look, he played good again, I guess.”
Far far FAR too often, that’s how the Selke gets warded. It also stinks that often the Norris is too.
Football's boring. Get over it.
I think that’s true of the Selke. People get a list in their head of 5-10 players who have been labeled great defensive forwards and pick from that list. I’m not so sure about the Norris. Lidstrom’s won it six of the last seven years, but I think he’s deserved it, at least for the most part.
I do think it’s happening with Chara this year. No clear frontrunner and people are saying, “well, who has been good for the last few years? Chara!”
The biggest knock on Green for the Norris, imo, is the number of power play goals as a percentage of his total goals. Voters tend to take a dim view on PP specialists when it comes to league awards. Having 50% of your goals on the power play (what most of his top rivals have) is ok, but Green’s ratio is up around 75% and I think it probably hurts his credentials. That said, he still should be a finalist in June.
That can cut both ways though. You might argue that it points at him being better in his end that people give him credit for though. Most of his goals don’t pad his +/-.
excellent point
I’ve used it a lot recently to rebut people who argue that Green’s excellent +/- is because he’s always chasing after goals, when in actuality, few of his goals are during even strength play.
by Scott in Shaw on Feb 9, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
He’d have more even strength goals if he didn’t skate on slush 41 nights a year.
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by J.P. on Feb 9, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For the time being I think that’s every thread.
by David Getz on Feb 9, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What are most Caps fans going to complain about when the ice gets fixed? There’s always something.
Football's boring. Get over it.
I was 84% joking.
And yes, there is always something to complain about. That’s why we write/comment/watch/etc.
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Didn’t say you weren’t joking, just that there always seems to be something to complain about. Now it’s the ice, in a week it’ll be Fehr, on March 5th it’ll be “WHY DIDN’T MCPHEE PICK UP PRONGER WE’RE SCREEEEEEWWWWEEEEED”
Football's boring. Get over it.
Do the NHL awards committee fellows look at Corsi? I’ll admit I am still a skeptic for it, but I know I hadn’t heard of it before this year.
Football's boring. Get over it.
That's the big problem for Greenie
None of those guys are going to look @ the advanced stats like most of us do. Oooooh, look at Chara’s +/- he’s soooooooo good defensively. Ooooooooh, Wideman is such a beast, look at what he does for the B’s. Meanwhile back at the Sno-Cone Factory (VC), Mike Green is great offensively but can’t actually play D. That’s bullshit, he’s got a better on ice +/- than either of them. He must be doing something right defensively. The Caps score almost 2 more goals than their opponents when he’s on the ice…
Great Point
That’s a good way to look at it. Count me firmly in the ‘Caps Fans Who Critique Green Disproportionately’ camp – I had maintained that he’s got flashy stats and id a hell of an offensive force, but not a complete defenseman YET.
But once again JP induces euphoria and near-headaches with his Caps Math. It all depends on whether we’re arguing should he be a serious Norris candidate or will he? Its hard to argue with those stats. He is as effective, if not more, than any defenseman in the league, including Chara. I think our reluctance to anoint him Norris worthy is more about style than effectiveness. We all want him to crush some guys and clear the crease like a bulldozer. He doesn’t do that. But neither does Lidstrom and his 47 Norris trophies. I think JP’s campaign here is making me a believer. Green is Norris worthy.
Will he win it? Probably not this year, based on name recognition. I think Chara gets it.
DMG wrote this one, Cap74 – the praise is his.
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I was in that camp until about 24 hours ago when I started writing this. Obviously I knew Green was ahead in terms of offensive but I didn’t realize (1) just how far ahead and (2) how closely he would compare to the other guys in stats like Corsi and +/-ON. It’s safe to say that in the process of writing this I moved from “Green’s good and deserved top 5 consideration for the Norris, but isn’t a true contender for the award itself” to "man, it’d be pretty hard to justify voting against this guy.
But that’s what’s great about stats: they give you the fact and just the facts and let you see where your perceptions might have been misleading you. 
Yup.
Statistics can certainly lie. But they sometimes can reveal truth.
I think Chara gets the nod, but I think it’ll be because the B’s finish with the stingiest D and Thomas at least wins the Jennings Trophy. It could be argued Green’s numbers are a direct result of the Caps’ system, but then Chara’s are too.
An interesting thing to ponder is what type of stats a Chara or Pronger (at his best) would produce in the Boudreau system. Would they flourish, or would their lack of speed limit their effectiveness?
With full disclosure that the stats are useless at best
What about giveway/takeaway numbers for Green? Seems kind of the defensiveman’s defensiveman stat to which the Norris voters would give weight.
Those stats are crap, as you point out, and largely dependent upon what type of D a guy is. Green’s going to get killed in it, b/c he’s a puck-rusher and a bit of a high-risk, high-reward guy. Chara will fare much better, as he’s much more conservative in his play.
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Also, in my anecdotal experience, they tend to be unreliable because of their inherent subjectivity. Remember that game earlier this year when Ovechkin passed the puck directly to a player on the other team along the offensive blue line and wasn’t given a giveaway because of it?
Same thing is going to apply to any statistical analysis for hits, another stat that would seem to be relevant to the discussion. Until there is a standardized way of tracking those stats they are basically meaningless (even if people still use them). Any statistical analysis needs to rely on the standardized/objective statistical records the NHL keeps, or the derivative statistics from those records (i.e. Corsi).
Same thing is going to apply to any statistical analysis for hits, another stat that would seem to be relevant to the discussion.
Nicklas Lidstrom disagrees…
And I think all of those stats can be useful to an extent, and that extent is usually limited to comparing teammates – who cares if the stat guy at VC hands out hits like candy if you’re comparing two guys who play the same schedule, etc.
And Corsi is a pretty solid stat for what it is, as there’s little subjectivity in shots and blocked shots (though obviously there is some).
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I didn’t say that hits is a dispositive stat, just relevant. Lidstrom has such dominant numbers in all areas that it doesn’t matter that he is not a bruiser. If guys are playing the same schedule then the hits stats even out, say AO and Mike Green. But comparing Green and a defenseman of another team will not have the same evening affect. The most significant factor on a defenseman’s final hits tally is going to be the scoring style of his home ice score keeper (half the games are at home). We have seen games where AO has been all over the ice banging people and had 1 hit (or 0 in that PHI playoff game) and we have seen games where another player was basically invisible but ended up with 5 hits or more. Corsi I thought was mostly dependent on how many shots are attempted which is basically cut and dry, whether they are blocked or wide. Shots on net is almost entirely objective and that is going to be the backbone of Corsi. I was using Corsi as an example of a reliable stat in contradistinction to hits.
I should’ve read your comment more closely – I’ve got no disagreement with it. Sorry.
As for the subjective stats, you’ll dig this – HockeyAnalysis normalizes them to make them more useful:
Adjusted hits
Adjusted giveaways
Adjusted takeaways
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Did you see Cullen's rankings?
In his “Backchecking” column in tsn.com, he listed the top 75 players that lay it on the line using some kind of mystical formula in
“an attempt to quantify the intangible element by addressing statistical categories like hits, blocked shots, giveaways, takeaways and faceoffs.”
The only Caps that make the Top 75 are Jurcina (#43) and Ovechkin (#51).
But he does throw in his “Bottom 25” and Nylander shows up at #20.
I’ve seen that. Seems pretty stupid to me, to be honest – any list on which Greg Zanon is the second-rated player is one I’m not going to spend much time considering.
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I get the feeling that Nick Lidstrom is competing against Nick Lidstrom of the last 7 years and everyone else is competing against this year’s pool. Nick Lidstrom is still the best Dman in the league to me, even if he isn’t as dominant as he has been. I will admit that Jack Edwards singlehandedly prevents me from watching many Bruins games but I still think Lidstrom is better than Chara. My prime piece of evidence is that I think Lidstrom did a better job shutting down AO in their match-up (I know, small sample size and Chara sure holds his own). Both of AOs goals v. DET came when he wasn’t matched against Lidstrom so you can’t just look at game stats.
Testament to the man's greatness
I get the feeling that Nick Lidstrom is competing against Nick Lidstrom of the last 7 years and everyone else is competing against this year’s pool.
Good point and I think you are right. Hardly fair though since anyone that competes againt the Lidstrom of 5-6 years ago will assuredly be the runner up.
Lidstrom’s losing some credit, though, because his team is no longer good defensively. For so long I think he got credit for leading the best defensive team and for producing such great numbers despite mediocre goaltending. Now they’re not able to overcome that hurdle and it’s going to hurt his chances.
IMO if Green continues his scoring splurge and ends the season with some mind blowing stats (30-35 goals) that might end up being the darkhorse that wins it. That aside the fact that Green is getting a lot of cred right now will help him in the next couple of years as far as a Norris candidate.
Agreed, and I agree with the suggestion (stated above) that these awards can tend to be something of lifetime achievement awards, and Green might get a bit of a “he’ll have his day” sentiment versus Chara’s “he’s somewhat overdue.”
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Don't the Caps play with...
The Capitals often play with a mindset that the best defense is a good offense. They try to always have an agressive fore check, out shoot the opponent, and have a lot of TOI.
Green might not be playing the best pure defensive defense but scoring goals in clutch situations is much better than hoping to prevent one by playing it safe at times.
I think since he has come back from injury he has done a good job at being more selective at when he is going to skate the puck into the zone. He has also done a better job of back checking.
I’d rather see him do a defensive pinch to keep the puck in when cycling and carry the puck in on the weaker lines than have him sitting back on the blue line waiting for the other team to skate into the defensive zone.
If you compared Green playing it safe to Green trying to score I don’t think you’d see a big difference in the amount of goals that get scored on the Capitals but there would obviously be a big difference in the amount of goals he scores and his point production.
by zephyr on Feb 9, 2009 1:22 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
“Having seen the numbers, do you buy or sell Mike Green as a legitimate Norris Trophy contender?”
can we expect this on Around the Horn today ??
Probably right after they discuss Brooklyn Decker vs. Bar Rafaeli for SI Swimsuit cover.
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Doesn’t the Norris discussion essentially boil down to: “Which defenseman would you most want on your team with the game on the line?” If that is the question I don’t see how Green isn’t on the short list, but I also don’t think he wins. Talk to me when he’s 25-27 and he’s probably a favorite (or his play has regressed). If that is the question I still can’t pick anyone over Lidstrom right now, and Green has to be top 5.
Per Vogs:
Green’s point total got a belated boost today when it was determined that he actually earned the second assist on Eric Fehr’s first period goal in the opening minute of Saturday’s 3-1 win over Florida.
Poor Stecks.
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Clarification
As I recall that goal by Fehr was a prolonged give-and-go. Fehr got the puck near the top of our D zone and gave it to Flash and they went up ice. Once Flash crossed the offensive blue line he made a slick pass to Fehr who then scored. How is a give-and-go goal ever awarded a secondary A (except when Crosby is on the ice… JOKE).
How is a give-and-go goal ever awarded a secondary A
Provided the puck doesn’t change possession, the last two players on the team who touched it prior to the goal scorers get assists, no matter what happens in between. So if you pass me the puck and J.P. and I pass it back and forth fifty times before one of us score, you still get an assist.
p.s. – not sure if that was part of the lead up to the Crosby punchline or not…
Crosby punchline was a throw-in. I am legitimately confused as to why they give Secondary As on a give-and-go. From a policy standpoint (this is DC right?) I understand rewarding the guy who may have made the play happen but was not the Primary passer or goal scorer. However, that interest seems to be gone in the give and go situation. Fehr got the puck out of the zone, Flash got the puck through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone, Fehr scored. Sure, Green may have won possession of the puck (I don’t remember) but at some point the chain or credit has to end. A give-and-go is a two man show and should be rewarded as such, IMO.
That was a wicked rhyme in your last sentence.
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I’ve always thought that was kind of stupid, and half-wonder if you should be allowed to assist on your own goal instead. I mean, I pass to DMG, he feeds F&B for a goal, I get an assist. But I pass to DMG, he gives that same exact pass to me that he gave F&B and I score, and I get just the goal for the same effort.
I guess the best answer would be no secondary assist on a give-and-go, but that ain’t how they’ve chosen to do it.
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Ah, the famous Sergei Berezin give-and-go – you give to me and go to hell.
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Something like that. Or maybe more something like ‘you give to me and then I shoot it into the goalie’s chest, you throw up your arms, we go back to the bench and you tell me to pass more because you’re not only my center but my captain as well and I sit and I feel shame’.
The ironic thing? I prefer to play defense.
Lets be honest, neither of you guys would come back to the bench. You would both remain on the ice until you couldn’t breath and when you got tired you would just start cherry picking rather than back checking… (a good offense is the best defense right?)
ha
I’ve been chided for that too, although I chalk it up to being, um, significantly younger than most of the guys on the team….
So, basically, I just moved back to DC; who needs a defenseman who stays out too long and doesn’t pass the puck enough?
The One Stat Noone Can Argue
Of all the defensemen on DMG’s list, Mike Green is the youngest. So if he doesn’t get it this year, it’s just a matter of time.
+1
I wanted to include ages, but there just wasn’t enough space in the table. It’s a good point to note, though.
This is actually what I was thinking. Green right now is working in his resume for the ‘09-’10 or ‘10-’11 Norris. It’s supposed to be an annual trophy, but the truth is there’s always a little time lag in these things and guys who were “robbed” in previous years are more likely to win it later. It’s why I think Chara would win it if the vote were held today — not because he’s been the best this year, but because there’s nobody who’s clearly way above the rest and Chara has been solid for a while. People think he’s “due.”
That said, Chara is also due for a massive decline and soon. His speed is really becoming a serious liability. And big defensemen seem to decline faster than small guys (Scott Stevens excepted).
by Gould Old Days on Feb 10, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
Sell
Don’t get me wrong, I love Greenie, and I think he has the skills to win it someday. That said, I do not think he is strong enough defensively yet. Of course, my thoughts might be skewed by the recent poor defensive performances the Caps have had in general. I have watched Greenie (and the other Caps D) chasing one too many breakaways lately. Theo should be able to sue for nonsupport.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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