Is Fehr The New Flash?

Guess we’ll find out what Fehrsie’s made of tonight. Per Tarik and Bruce, he’ll skate with Fedorov and Ovechkin tonight. Don’t think he doesn’t know that this is his great golden chance.

I’m both nervous and cautiously optimistic. if nothing else, it’ll be interesting.

Appropos of, well, everything in this post, in his first 31 games last year, Flash had 5 goals, 10 assists, a -5 rating and 49 shots on goal.

In fact, on this date a year ago, Flash had 6 goals, 13 assists and a -5 rating… in 49 games.

1) Interesting comparison. Those who have written off Fehr already should take note of your comparison. Unfortunately for Fehr his serious back injury coupled with high expectations (sandwiched between Zac Parise and Ryan Getzlaf) have not helped
2) The team is probably going to use the next couple of months to evaluate him to see if he is in their plans after his entry level deal is up.

It’s easy to compare these two because they’re both young, both produced at other levels, and Flash represents the leap that we hope all our young players take. But they play such different games. Even when Fehr has been ringing posts and taking wristers from the circles (in other words, not producing), his forechecking and work in the corners are miles above Flash. For Flash it was a matter of getting used to the speed and the physical nature of the NHL. Fehr looks like he’s got the physical part down. He’s learning to keep up, and starting to get his shot back. I’m very interested to see how he does tonight with all that ice time on the first line.

Something about that quote at the top hasn’t sat 100% well with me, and I think I figured out why. When Gabby says he hopes Fehr seizes this opportunity and “proves, like Tomas Fleischmann did, that he’s a solid NHL player,” it sounds like he wants/expects Fehr 2009 to be Flash 2009, not Flash 2008.

Fact of the matter is Fehr’s developmentally and experientially behind Flash 2009, and pretty much pacing (or even out-pacing) Flash 2008 (as laid out in the post).

So my question is, what’s the real – and realistic – expectation right now for Fehr? Flash 2008 or Flash 2009?

Im sure Ovie told him this…

“When I tap my stick on the ice…Give me the puck.”

For a good portion of the first half of the season last year the Caps were the worst team in hockey. Just about everyone was stinking it up, Flash included. The first half this year is a very different story.

I’m still not sure how much weight I put in that statement but it should be noted.

I’d be happy if Flash was the new Flash. 2 points in the last 7 games.

While I agree that the two players might be following similar development paths, it’s pretty problematic to compare two such diverse players, especially two whose deficiencies are so different.

Flash is a great skater, and everything he’s got builds off of his wheels. He also has a pretty damn soft pair of hands. Until this year, he’s never really coupled these two things together effectively in the NHL. On the other hand, he’s not great defensively, occasionally makes poor decisions with the puck and doesn’t consistently go to high-traffic areas with vigor. Ultimately, for Flash to reach his potential, he needs to gain more confidence while cleaning up his defensive play – he’s never going to be a corner-basher, which means that he needs to score in the NHL, or else he’s just another Alexandre Giroux.

Fehr is not a great skater, and lacks Flash’s stick skills. To my eyes, he has a better shot, but the difference doesn’t seem significant. What Fehr has is a big, projectable frame and a willingness to go into the corners and in front of the net. He’s also strong defensively and knows when to make the simple play when it’s the right one. In other words, Fehr can play consistently outside of the top-six and still contribute, which is something Flash can’t do.

The downside to this is that his capacity for playing as a grinder might be stunting his growth as a scoring threat. As Nylander has shown, the only way to score is to get ice time, preferably power play ice time. Fehr has been caught in a bad situation all year. He can’t be sent down to Hershey, where he could get the ice time he needs to develop, but he can’t score consistently enough in DC to warrant more top-level ice time. From watching his work in the corners and in front of the net, he looks like he also needs to add some core/leg strength.

This is where his injuries really hurt him – developmentally, he should be playing in the AHL, but contractually, he has to be with the Caps, and since he’s capable of mucking and grinding, he bounces around between the third and fourth lines. Unfortunately, Clark’s injury doesn’t really open up a top-line spot for Fehr, and it’s unlikely that Kozlov will be out for long enough for him to get a really good look.

I think that Fehr’s development will probably look more like Laich’s. He’s going to bounce around the bottom lines, occasionally seeing scoring line/power play duty. His upside is likely higher, but his ability to crash, bang and play defense will probably (almost paradoxically) keep him from getting consistent top-six ice time. Unless he gets more PP time, or consistent playing time with a good playmaking center like Backstrom, his shooting percentage is never going to reach the 18.3% he had during his last year in Hershey and consequently, his goal totals will stay low.

I’ve been thinking this for awhile now and I do think that Fehr is showing the signs of last year’s Flash. I’m interested to see what Fehr does with the rest of the season and his “golden opportunity” tonight with Feds and Ovechkin. The potential is there, it’s up to Fehr to unleash it, and that may not happen until the 09-10 season, much like Flash.

I believe the Fehr/Flash comparison is a good one as both are young players who making the transition to the NHL. Fehr also has shown how it takes him a season to adjust before adjusting and unfortunately he lost a year of development to injury with coincided with his entry level deal ending so he’s had to stay with the big club as an extra forward this year which isn’t the most ideal considering the lost year.

I really believe (and hope) that he’s turning the corner. Even before the recent points he was starting to draw penalties and getting chances. I know some will simply site point production but Fehr was getting decent shots/positions. What would have scared me more was if he was invisible out there which I think we all can attest there were stretches of many games last year when Flash was invisible.

If Fehr does prove he’s turning the corner after this season is over it is going to provide some flexibility for GMGM for next year.

Regarding the 2003 NHL draft hindsight 20/20 junk… NJ traded up and grabbed Parise the pick before the Capitals. I still wonder who the Capitals would have picked if Parise was still there. Getzlaf slid about that draft. I believe he was projected in the 11-15 range and slid for whatever reason. He was definitely a ‘bigger’ name that was available. At the time didn’t really favor picking Getzlaf but was still surprised at the Fehr picked which I warmed up to after Fehr scored 50 goals that next season and then 59 the season after. Getzlaf scored 28 and 29 respectively though admittedly only in 49 and 51 games. All that aside Getzlaf has really turned into a good NHL’er ultimately. Considering how well the capitals have been drafting since 2002 it is a bit over the top to teeth gnash at this point, heh.

I’m still annoyed at the snake draft of 2005. Capitals should have had a top 5 pick. Pretty much a weak draft though looking back at the picks. Wanted Kopitar but he went at #11.

Japers’ Rink crushes my workday productivity.

Ironically, when Fehr lines up at the faceoff circle tonight, he’ll be looking at what he could have been with fewer injuries and more playing time. In 265 games, Dustin Brown, who was drafted five spots ahead of Fehr, has 64 goals and 139 points. I’m sure those are the kind of totals the Caps envisioned for Eric before his injuries. In fact, if you look at the list of everyone drafted before him in 2003, Fehr has played on average about 150 games less. That’s why it’s difficult to give up on him this early in his career. Still, that draft has turned into one hell of a group of stud NHLers (with Fehr the noticeable exception):
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html

That Fehr has about half the ice time of Flash with only 13 less shots?

Wow, b.orr4 — you’re right — what an incredible draft that was. Would have preferred having Mike Richards on the team after looking at that list.

I have to concur that that 2003 NHL Draft was pretty bad @ss.

NYR picking Jessiman was epic fail for sure.

I’m really interested to see how Finley looks next year at the AHL level.

My worry is that Flash is going to become the new Pettinger. A guy that has one “breakout” season and then seemingly falls off the face of the planet.
 
I’m hoping Flash really blossoms into a consistent scoring threat next season. That would be sweet.

Fehr succeeding on the top line is very important to the future of the Caps. We need to continue the influx of young players to fill out the roster and allow us to pay our star players.

With Ovechkin – Backstrom – Fehr on line 1, Fleischmann – ??? – Semin on line 2 we are pretty set for a few years there. If Fehr succeeds, we need to fill the 2nd line center spot. Short term options are Nylander and Fedorov, but I still think that should be our focus (….can you say Grachev)

Heading into this year, Fehr had played 58 NHL games. Heading into last year, Flash had played 43.

I think it’s fair to compare this year’s Fehr to last year’s Fleischmann. And on that comparison, Fehr looks good both stats-wise, and based on his more physical play.

Nobody has mentioned that 07-08 Flash was benched in the playoffs for 07-8 Fehr (who is not even in the discussion). That, to me, says a lot. Fehr was just recently recovered from his injury and probably not in game shape. Flash had been force fed ice time all season and when push came to shove BB had to acknowledge that Fehr brought more to the table. That dynamic won’t change. If Fehr finds his scoring touch at the NHL level he has the ability to be much more productive/valuable than Flash IMO.

If your word choice in this post was intentional:

The comparison immediately struck me as a fair one; I have found myself thinking Fehr’s flashes of talent . . .