Why Is No One Talking About Jose Theodore?
by J.P. on Feb 4, 2009 6:51 PM EST
17 comments
Heading into tonight's action, Jose Theodore is 34th in the League in save percentage and 26th in goals against average. In a 30-team league, those aren't good numbers, and they're the kind that lead people to write things like "The only serious question mark [for the Caps] is in goal, where back-up Brent Johnson has outplayed No. 1 goaltender Jose Theodore so far."
But a closer look at Theodore's season reveals that, indeed, he hasn't been good - he's been great... for six weeks, at least. Here's a look at all 26 NHL goalies who have appeared in at least ten games since Christmas, ranked by goals against average over that span:
More wins than Tim Thomas or Evgeni Nabokov, a better save percentage than Henrik Lundqvist or Steve Mason, and a better goals against average than, well, everyone. What's more, in those 14 appearances (all starts), Theodore has allowed only a dozen even strength goals.
Soon after the Caps signed Theodore last summer, I wrote a couple of posts (Step Back From The Ledge and In Defense Of Jose, The Defense In Front Of Jose) in which I basically made the points that Theodore was capable of not only being "good enough" but also of putting up numbers not wholly dissimilar to those Cristobal Huet put up in his abbreviated stint between the pipes in D.C. Comparing Huet the (regular season) Cap with Theodore's last six weeks, that point rings true:
To be sure, Theodore's track record is one of inconsistency, but also one of slow starts and strong finishes, and his pre-Christmas (9-6-1/3.32/.881) / post-Christmas (10-3-1/2.06/.925) splits speak to both of those points (as do his career pre- and post-All-Star splits). But six weeks is a decent-sized sample from which to draw some conclusions, and it's possible to chalk up some of his early season woes to familiarizing himself with new on- and off-ice surroundings, as well as the stellar play of his backup.
It's hard, then, to deny that Jose Theodore is one of the best goalies in hockey at the moment... and maybe no one's talking about him because their mouths are filled with crow.
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Maybe nobody’s talking about him because nobody wants to jinx it :)
by gotsparkly on Feb 4, 2009 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I was ready to post that, verbatim.
The keyboard is mightier.
by breed16 on Feb 4, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the conventional wisdom is that the Caps Are Playing Great But Have Goaltending Issues!! What will people say if they noticed this??
In seriousness, I knew he had been playing well, but I’m a little surprised it’s this well. I think I have more confidence in Theo than most Caps fans, but that prospect of a return to the 2008 Theodore is going to keep everyone a little nervous until, at least, round 2 of the playoffs.
by grapejoos on Feb 4, 2009 7:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
Took me a second to find Theodore on that chart…didn’t think I’d need to start at the top.
by David M. Getz on Feb 4, 2009 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Look how many more saves Ryan Miller had to make over the same number of games. I guess BUF’s shutdown days are over….
Peter Budaj’s numbers will probably keep Andrew Raycroft in COL?
by TylerG on Feb 4, 2009 9:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Theo has been playing extremely well. Tarik, to his credit, has been talking about it and defending him quite a bit. I’m not surprised that the national press types have been focusing more on the downs than the ups though
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 4, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tarik has definitely been defending him
And not that anyone’s reading, but I’ve been making a habit of posting Theodore’s #s since the Dec. 23 Rangers game in almost every game recap I’ve written for the past month. The numbers are flat out impressive, and considering how awful his start was I’m pretty damn surprised that he’s cracked .900. About three weeks ago I was thinking that if Theo finishes with a SV% around .905 and a GAA around 2.6, that’s gonna mean he went on one hell of a run and probably would mean the Caps also had a hell of a run to close out the season. Now I’m thinking .905 might be a low estimate with 30 games left.
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by CStoneNo37 on Feb 4, 2009 10:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been thinking this all along. I am glad that more people are coming around though.
by nuftjedi on Feb 4, 2009 11:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
When a newspaper makes a correction it always gets buried in the back of the paper. I think the same concept is at work here. Hockey reporters aren’t going to willingly admit they got it wrong on Theo.
by b.orr4 on Feb 5, 2009 12:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
But six weeks is a decent-sized sample from which to draw some conclusions, and it’s possible to chalk up some of his early season woes to familiarizing himself with new on- and off-ice surroundings, as well as the stellar play of his backup.
Couldn’t have said it better. Rec’d.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Feb 5, 2009 7:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
His numbers have been very good and for the most part I am comfortable with him as our starter. I still love the signing…2 years on Jose, 1 left on Johnson provides a perfect migration path to Varlamov and Neuvirth.
With that said, you have to admit that even during the great streak the times he does give up a goal makes you scratch your head. This will happen with a goalie that is more reaction then fundamental.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Feb 5, 2009 9:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I still love the signing…2 years on Jose, 1 left on Johnson provides a perfect migration path to Varlamov and Neuvirth.
Y’know, I wouldn’t assume necessarily that Jose is two-and-done here. A lot can happen between now and the end of next season (JT’s play and accomplishments or lack thereof, Varlamov’s health and development, Neuvirth’s development, trades, etc.).
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by J.P. on Feb 5, 2009 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s hard, then, to deny that Jose Theodore is one of the best goalies in hockey at the moment… and maybe no one’s talking about him because their mouths are filled with crow.
Or maybe they aren’t talking about him because they know it won’t last? :-)
by Bob Harwood on Feb 5, 2009 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ll defer to the Cam Ward fan on the subject of short-lived successes, I suppose.
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by J.P. on Feb 5, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe because he showed this kind of teasing promise last year only to explode vehemently in the 2nd round of the playoffs? Maybe cuz he’s a prick who held out for more money from the franchise and goalie coach that helped revived his much-maligned career? He’s french?
Colorado Avalanche: Gellin' and Propellin'!!!
by Mike @ MHH on Feb 20, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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Carolina
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(updated 11.22.2009 at 12:47 AM EST)
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