All That Stands Between The Caps And The Cup Is...
by David Getz on Feb 23, 2009 12:00 PM EST
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Given their performance in yesterday’s win over the Penguins, the Caps have every right to feel good about themselves. They dispatched of what is arguably their biggest rival in convincing fashion, chased Marc-Andre Fleury just past the game's halfway point, and saw both their powerplay (2-for-3) and penalty kill (7-for8) units put up good numbers. But strip away the luster of beating the Penguins and the win becomes a home victory over the league’s 17th best team, which was playing the second of back-to-back road games. In short, it was the kind of game a good team should win.
Of course, the thing to remember is that ‘good’ isn’t good enough to win the Stanley Cup - only one team takes it home, and there are countless ways for a team to falter just enough to miss their chance. Below, we've outlined seven potential roadblocks that might stand between the Caps and Lord Stanley's chalice.
Goaltending – We have this first not because we think it’s the Caps biggest problem, but because it seems like every mainstream media pundit alive does. As J.P. noted yesterday, Jose Theodore has a sparkling 2.20 GAA and .921 save percentage since being pull against the Rangers on December 23rd. Still, Theodore’s save percentages both for the season and for February hover right around .900. Since the lockout the playoff save percentages of the goalies who have led their teams to Stanley Cup Finals berths have been .933, .930, .927, .922, .920, and .907. For what it’s worth, Theodore’s career playoff save percentage is .915, but only .904 since his glory days with the Canadiens.
The Defense Corps – Mike Green, Tom Poti, and Jeff Schultz are all very solid in their own end but Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn, and John Erskine have the potential to struggle against playoff caliber offenses. The big three can play big minutes but that doesn't mean there won't be opportunities for opponents to exploit the Caps relative lack of depth. Karl Alzner could offer some help, but the way he was playing at the time of his demotion suggests it could be a mistake for the Capitals to count on it.
Secondary Scoring – The talent's there, but is the production? Tomas Fleischmann has scored just once in the past month, as has Sergei Fedorov. Brooks Laich has been hot and cold, Michael Nylander has struggled to produce all season, and Alexander Semin has scored nine times in twenty-six games, a twenty-eight goal pace, since a five point outburst in early November. Alexander Ovechkin and Mike Green can do an awful lot, but they're still only human... we think.
Discipline – One of the few complaints about Sunday’s game could be that the Capitals – again – took far too many minor penalties (nine to be exact). The Capitals have taken the fifth-most minor penalties in the NHL and been shorthanded more than every NHL team other than the Ducks. In playoff situations, where one goal can decide a game or even an entire series (just ask Tom Poti), the Capitals are almost certain to be forced out early on if they don’t find a way to stay out of the penalty box.
The Penalty Kill – The penalty kill unit has been a roll recently; more specifically since Tom Poti's return from injury. Even with the unit's recent hot steak, the team is below the league average in terms of penalty killing effectiveness. Plus, having a PK unit that's so dependent on the health and performance of just one player has to make Caps fans a little uneasy, doesn't it?
Leadership – The Capitals don't have a ton of players under contract who can offer veteran leadership and those the does have might have a hard time getting their voices heard: Chris Clark is on long-term injured reserve and was having trouble producing when he was playing and Sergei Fedorov has been in and out of the lineup. While it's good that the team has guys like Fedorov, Poti, and Theodore, who have a decent amount of playoff experience, it's hard to imagine the team wouldn't benefit from having another grizzled vet on the roster in the same way Gary Roberts helped Pittsburgh last season.
Focus – The hot topic for the past few weeks, the team's tendency to lose focus was never more prominent than during it's 4-1 loss to Colorado on Friday. While it's unlikely the team will have any trouble getting "up" for their playoff games it's notably difficult for a team to suddenly turn it on and be able to play their best game after several weeks of lax attention (the Arizona Cardinals notwithstanding). Focus won't be a problem in the playoffs, but a lack of it in the buildup to the postseason could have serious repercussions.
All are potential problems but the question we put you, the Japers' Rink community, is: Which of these potential roadblocks should concern the Capitals the most, and why?
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I have an uncanny ability to find the clouds on a sunny day.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
My concern is that even when the Caps are ‘up’ for an opponent, like they were vs. PIT, that they STILL take dumb penalties. It has become habit.
I think that discipline flows from focus, which, in part, flows from leadership, which I think will take care of itself as we get closer to playoff time (I don’t oppose adding a veteran leader, but chemistry is such a delicate thing…). I’m not concerned with the goaltending (at least not to a point where I think someting needs to be done about it). The secondary scoring will be fine. The PK has been better, and becomes less of an issue with fewer penalties taken.
But the D worries me a little. I’d love to bring in a guy who bumps the back-half guys down a spot on the depth chart (i.e. bring in someone for the second-pairing or above – I’m fine with 52, 55 and 3 in my top three).
Discipline is up there, though.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Discipline is up there, though.
I knee-jerked and put 2ndary scoring, but then I compared the minors the team took from last year to this year.
It’s startling, to say the least.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Feb 23, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I voted for defense, with a mild in-head fight between it and discipline. I’d have to think, though, that one improving improves the other.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
I agree that the team will give up fewer goals if they take fewer penalties but the distinction between ‘defense’ as in team defense and how many goals the team is giving and ‘the defense corps’ as in the actual personnel is key for this discussion.
I mean the defense corps. I feel if the defense corps improves (Adding a 3-4 guy) the discipline should improve. Not that Green or Ovechkin or Semin take bad penalties, but Mo and Jurcina have a lot of dumb penalties in them. I’m more implying that we get a 3-4 guy to bump the guys down. In addition to that, a 3-4 guy can play on the PK, which indirectly affects discipline’s effects.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
I agree and think you’ve touched on something important: acquiring a key player doesn’t just bump someone out of the lineup, it adjusts everyone else’s role. Getting a legitimate top four defenseman not only puts one guy in the press box (people will differ on who that should be), it also means Erskine, Mo, and Jurcina will get less ice time, player against weaker players, and spend less time on the PK when they are playing.
+1, Whiter Mage.
Indeed. And as much as I like Erskine, if we went out and got a Volchenkov (Not that the Sens are selling), I’d not care that he’d see maybe one in every four games.
Hell, maybe acquiring a top four guy pushes Kronwall off the team. Wouldn’t upset me, really, as we didn’t give up a damn thing to get him. Every trade for anyone really does impact who plays with who, who plays on what pairing, situations and what not. Sorry for not really elaborating (Got a cold >_<)
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think Kronwall would get to Hershey.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
9th round pick in his 7th year with 52 games of NHL experience
and if the Caps got him that means 25 other teams passed on him. Now’s he’s played two less then stellar games and would be right back on the wire.
I think there’s a fair chance that he’d be suiting up for the Bears.
I’m more inclined to think that the Leafs would pick him back up. They wanted him, and haven’t made a move for another d-man to my knowledge.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
I will go ahead and say that Green and Semin and Ovechkin take a lot of dumb penalties. They’re young and getting better about it, but they are each prone to losing cool/discipline.
by Gould Old Days on Feb 23, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
I meant to say not that Semin/Ovechkin/Green don’t take bad penalties. Whoops.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I think that’s true of Ovechkin but Green has one rough, no boards, no charges, and no elbows. He does have four slashes, but I think those are more a product of playing defense against tough opponents than frustration.
Theo’s play as of late has been good enough that I’m not nearly as concerned about goaltending as I was in the early parts of the season…but I am a bit concerned about the backup situation.
Granted, Johnson may be back in time for the playoffs, and the Caps could definitely lean on Jose the whole way though what will hopefully be a long post-season run…but I shudder to think about what might happen if Jose isn’t able to make a start…who takes his place?
I don’t have a problem using either Neuvirth or Varlamov as a backup if needed, but then again, I’d like to see a few more starts from either one prior to the playoffs if that’s the route they plan on taking. Of course, regardless of what GMGM says, I wouldn’t be surprised if a netminder was picked up prior to the deadline, but I imagine the price and situation would have to be right.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 23, 2009 12:20 PM EST reply actions
The goalie market just got a lot tighter
with Miller going down in Buffalo.
Between Legace sitting in the AHL and Brodeur’s return initiating a game of odd-man out in Jersey, and still no word about Minny closing a re-signing deal with Backstrom, I think we’ll see a bit of netminder shuffling by Wednesday.
I agree that there’ll be some goaltending shuffling, but I doubt the Caps will be involved.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
The Caps will only move if they can get a veteran back up (Hedberg, Gerber) for a song (maybe “Lady of Spain”?)
by MikeL-Pivonka on Feb 23, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Never play “Lady of Spain” again!!!!!
by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 23, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Discipline
Several reasons why:
You give up more goals,
It keeps Ovi off the ice,
It is exhausting for the guys on the PK,
It wrecks the flow of the Caps game. It screws with lines and exhausts players that are on the PK while the other guys sit on the bench and get cold.
Taking penalities (whether you give up goals or not) is a sure fire way to get tossed from the post season. Especially since the penalties this team takes are not intimidating/aggressive penalities. If you take a goalie interference you might get him off his game, or get guys like Matt Cooke running around trying to make a point. If you take a cheapy hooking, all it does is hurt you and your team.
I still go with the Netminder
Theo is much better, but can he carry the team through four rounds of playoff hockey against better and better teams? I’m still not convinced. And with BJ1’s hip out, any rest for Theo means we put in a rookie goalie that most likely have less then 5 NHL games under their belt.
I’m a huge fan of Varly… but would you want him backstopping the team in Game 4 of the second round in Philly?
Teams ride goalies to the cup…outside of Gretzky or Mario kinds of teams in the old-style of Hockey this has always been the case. Hell, we rode Kolzig to a Stanley Cup appearance when, on paper, we really had no right to be there. But we got hot at the right time and Godzilla virtually WALLED OFF the net and it worked until we met up with the Scottie Bowman’s Big Red Machine.
I hope Theo does it… I really do. Bruce can get the rest of the team in line. Feds can provide some key leadership and Ovie & the Boys can do enough to give JT60 a cushion to work with on the scoreboard…. but if there is a playoff level chink in our armor its between the pipes.
Other: Verizon Center ice…
:-)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I wouldn’t mind adding him, but damn, I don’t want to be giving the Penguins ANYTHING.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I understand the sentiment, but Scuderi isn’t a great player and would probably only cost the Capitals a second round pick or mid level prospect at most, and I’d be okay giving that the Pens if it would really help out the Capitals heading into the postseason.
Does anyone really think that the Pens will be sellers at the deadline? I would think that Pittsburgh would be howling if they gave away anyone for picks.
Crosby, Malkin, Fleury ....and now Staal's new contract
have to be creating a bit of a SalCap dilemma in the Iron City. They may wind up as a seller out of necessity.
You can move a guy like Scuderi even if you’re not a “seller” just like the Capitals could conceivably move Morrisonn and turn around and pick up a better defenseman.
that’s the kind of scenario I was envisioning. It likely won’t happen, but Scuderi is the kind of meat and potatoes guy I wouldn’t mind seeing us add.
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 23, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Plus, the Pens could move Scuderi, a pending UFA and clear room to bring back Goglioski who they had to send down when Gonchar was coming back. Just thinking outloud here.
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 23, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
speaking of Goglioski, he is 24 and looks older than my dad
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 23, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
The reason that we are talking about moving Mo is that he is overpaid, under performing, and going to be gone in a few months regardless. Is that the case for Scuderi? Mo isn’t really a fit on this defense right now, is Scuderi having the same sort of problem in Pittsburgh?
I don’t know if I see the cases being that similar.
A mid-round draft pick, no problem.
A prospect? No thanks.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I’d hate to dance with the devil, but he’s the type of player this team needs. A guy who is tough and sound defensively that can deliver a good outlet pass.
Our bottom 3 guys can’t do that consistently. If we can find a Dman of this caliber (2nd tier solid game) I’ll feel confident in the D.
by vt caps fan on Feb 23, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
as for the poll, I chose Discipline. If this team stays out of penalty trouble, they’re hard to beat.
They are hard to beat when they are in penality trouble, what will they be like if they only took 3 penalities a game.
Other
I voted ‘other’ because I’d be most concerned about a general Capitals slump heading into the playoffs, regardless of reason. The hot team always goes deeper into the playoffs than any other. Can the Caps keep winning, even with the inevitable injuries sustained in the playoffs?
A trade for a more solid D-man wouldn’t hurt either.
Great post. I voted defense because I think Poti and Schultz are the only consistently solid defensive defensemen on the team.
My one quibble is with calling Green “very solid” in his own end. He just isn’t yet. This isn’t a huge knock — I don’t think it’s fair to ask a player of Green’s age to be superior at all things. Defensemen take time to develop, and Green is already all-world on offense.
But It’s up to Mike Green to decide that he wants to take it to that next level by becoming a true shutdown defenseman. Right now, he takes too many shifts off, tries to be too fancy with his stick instead of his body, and takes too many bad penalties. I believe he will get there. And I won’t lay it on Greenie if the team’s lack of consistent defensive defensemen costs them the cup — Greenie already does enough for this team. But I do think the #1 thing holding the team back is another 20 minutes a night, fast, strong, solid defensive defenseman.
by Gould Old Days on Feb 23, 2009 12:38 PM EST reply actions
Green’s a +27, is eighth among NHL defensemen in Corsi, sixteenth in Goals Against per 60, second in team-adjusted +/-, and first in +/- per 60.
All a testament to his amazing offensive gifts. Nonetheless, I stand by my assessment of his defense. He’s not bad. But neither is he “very solid.”
by Gould Old Days on Feb 23, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
There are more than 200 defensemen in the NHL. Of all of them, only 15 more allow fewer goals per sixty minutes than Mike Green. I think that says something about his defense. Also, a very high percentage of his points come on the powerplay and thus don’t affect his plus-minus.
He’s not a top-tier defensive player, but he’s a legit top four defender in terms of his defense and that’s solid enough to not be a liability in the playoffs.
Again, I’m not saying Green is “part of the problem.” He’s good enough on D to justify 25 minutes per game, given what he contributes on offense. He’s such a fluid, gifted skater, that even when he screws up he can often correct it. But he does screw up a lot. It actually gives me a lot of comfort — can you imagine what Greenie will be in 2 years with a little more seasoning? He’s going to get better!
With all that said, we have 2 “very solid” defensive defensemen — Poti and Schultz. Green is more than adequate defensively given what he contributes on offense. I’d like to have that solid #4 defensive defenseman going into the playoffs. I just think you need that in the postseason.
This team will get its goals with some combination of Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kozlov, Fleishmann, Fedorov, Fehr, Laich and Nylander as its top 6 forwards. Theodore is fine. The top 4 defensemen are where I see potential problems, since I only see 3 legitimate top 4 guys.
by Gould Old Days on Feb 23, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
Other
Grit / toughness…..seems to me the most lacking. Need another winger hitting other than Ovi.
Goaltending may be an issue, but we have what we have can’t really improve it. I never understand the talk of trading for a replacement for Johnny. If Theo faulters what back-up that we can trade for has more upside than Varly or Neuvirth.
Defense I think will be okay, wouldn’t mind adding there but I have more faith in Juice than most peeps.
I doubt that focus will be an issue in the playoffs, if it is, than this team has a lot more problems than any of us know
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
Agreed on focus, but there’s always the chance with this team that they face some 6/7/8 seed in the first round who they think they should just roll over and before you know it, they’re down 3-1 in the series.
I don’t think there’s much chance of that happening, mind you, but I don’t think it would take a huge stretch of the imagination to envision.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
All Caps fans can tell you
that a hard-working team can spring out to a 3-1 advantage over a more talented club in a playoff series. Not that it ever got the Caps anywhere, mind you. Excuse me, I have to go sob in the corner now and stick pins in my Mario doll…
…all better now. Ahem.
I think the Caps almost certainly end up as a 2 or 3 seed – don’t see them catching Boston at all. That would line them up with a 6 or 7 seed. Looking into my crystal ball, I see Florida or, ummmmmmm, the Pens in there? Maybe Buffalo if they can hold the fort long enough? I’m thinking the Rags fall out, not feeling confident in Montreal at all…dunno.
Anyway, I can easily envision the Caps getting ambushed by any of those teams, to tell you the truth.
If this team can't get up for a Flyer's game
then shame on them. Regional Rival… number 4 team in the East….Ended our season last year… beat us 7-1 back in December….
And its the FLYERS!!!!! For chrissakes, we’re talking about the dirty unspeakably infernal insufferable obnoxious “I hope they die in a fire” team that not only has the shameless indecency to publically admit to hiring Hartnell… but they also signed Briere!!!!!
Lack of grit from anyone playing Philly = Loss. Bruce will have them ready.
Leadership
The poll results surprise me. Goaltending isn’t what worries me. Secondary scoring isn’t what worries me either. We are as well off (or as potentially in danger) in those categories as most playoff-bound teams. The poll says our issues are discipline and focus. I agree, but I think both of those are addressed through leadership.
We certainly have championship level talent. But a look at recent Cup winners, and surprise teams who lost in the finals, demonstrates the need for one or two hardcore veteran leaders who put the club on their backs and maintain discipline, focus, emotion and consistency. Who is our Andreychuk, our Brind’Amour or our Niedermayer? Brash, Poti, and Erskine don’t quite fit that bill. Laich and Bradley could be that type of guy, but haven’t been through the wars enough. I really hope we bring in a guy like Gary Roberts, Ian Laperriere or Adam Foote, a vocal leader who’ll tell the kids what it takes.
by Cap74 on Feb 23, 2009 1:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Adam Foote would be the ideal person to add to the roster in that he brings playoff experience, toughness, grit, discipline, leadership…
It would cost a lot to get him off Colorado’s roster, likely a current defenseman (Morrisonn?) a draft pick and a prospect (Chris Bourque might be someone the Avs would like, they did well with his dad…). Still if it can get the Silverware to DC, you make the deal.
by MikeL-Pivonka on Feb 23, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
definitely
but I’m not so sure it’s gonna take all that much to get him. Colorado is in full rebuild mode, and they want to shed salary—I think they’d take less and, provided we can excavate some deadweight, I’m guessing it can get done for picks/prospects.
The Avs still have a shot at the playoffs, they’re only 7 points out of 8th. For them to shift into full rebuild mode, they would need to pretty much drop all of their games before the deadline, not that that couldn’t happen.
I would think that the Avs would insist on a prospect (Bourque, Lepisto, Macheseny etc. Alzner and Varlamov are the only untouchables, I suspect), and they would insist on getting someone who can play every night who can be a 3rd or 4th D-man (meaning not Jurcina, Erskine, Kronwall). I would think that of the D-men up with the Caps, Green, Poti and Schultz are not available. Add Foote to the mix, and that’s a pretty good top-4.
by MikeL-Pivonka on Feb 23, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I’m with you on that point. Feds plays that role currently, but I think his greatest impact is on the russkies.
Three Stanley Cup Rings have no language barrier
If non-Russian players aren’t listening to Mr. Fedorov then Bruce needs to help them get their head out of their ass.
by Wisper on Feb 23, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would actually argue that Feds is more impacted by the youth than the young guys are impacted by his experience. When I say that I mean he is invigorated and loves playing again because of their highs and lows, and doesn’t do much to temper the highs and lows that the young guys necessarily have.
Feds was never really a leader on his teams, he could be relied on to go out, play hard, play both ways but was never asked to put someone in their place, or to fire the guys up. It might be that he just isn’t the leader the team as a whole needs.
That isn’t saying that what Feds is bringing to the team/room isn’t necessary and worth it… but it may be that they need someone to fill the Foote/Brind’Amour role as well.
I think
Feds is a great leader and I think he and the youth feed off each other. I hope Poti can step up a little in the leadership aread – playing over 8 mins of good PK is definately leading as a calm influence by example…the dumb penalty though – not so much. Foote would be great but then next season we have more slary cap issues so I don’t see it happening….
Maybe a swap of Kozlov for somebody else in addition to Feds up front who can help in the leadership area, I’d loive to see a swap of Nyls for somebody else but don’t see it happening with his contract….
In the end though it’s not the leadership issue it’s the discipline one – I just think a little more leadership would help the discipline issuer especially when playing frustrating, well executed trapping teams….
by markbona-capsfan99 on Feb 23, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
I think Kozlov brings as much to the team as anyone he could be exchanged for could, considering the team is pretty much right against the cap and Kozlov’s 2.5 million hit makes him great for the money.
Absolutely
I don’t understand all the Kozlov non-love. He is a great bargain @ 2.5 per for what he does. You can say what you will about “any hard-working right wing” can be on that line, and it may be true to an extent. But you can’t substitute for the chemistry that is already there, not to mention Kozlov has got some mean puck possession skills (and doesn’t skate in circles down the entire ice) that are hard to find.
Another other:
The fact that in order to win the Cup, we’ll have to beat a Western Conference team. :D
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
seems weird to say
“Maybe we’ll get lucky and get Detroit.”
(I just hit “Spellcheck” on that sentence and it stuck on Detroit as an error with a replacement suggestion “Anything else since I’m sure this is not what you meant, you crackhead”)
Great post
I went with focus….cause if the team can get that together, the rest will be much easier to accomplish.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
defense
To follow up on JP’s comment early, seems to me we have a guy named Karl Alzner waiting in Hershey who is more than equipped to bump the back half guys down a spot. He’s young and has had a couple of rough games recently, but he’s already proven himself very solid on the blueline this season. We’re in the playoffs…why not use the last 20+ games to get him ready? And if our forwards can backcheck consistently (like they did yesterday), methinks our defense improves.
Per J.P.’s FanShot breaking the news of Alzner being sent to Hershey:
Per the AHL transaction page, Karl Alzner has been returned to Hershey. King Karl has a minus-9 rating since December 22, the worst giveaway/takeaway ratio of all Caps blueliners and the highest GAON/60 of all Caps rearguards at both 5-on-5 and 4-on-5. Is it possible that he’s just not ready?
He’s got a ton of talent and there’s a decent enough chance he can come up and help the Capitals as the season ends and the playoffs start, but it would be a mistake for them to count on it.
Question from a Convert/Newbie to Caps
My fiancé converted me from a Pens fan to a Caps fan at the start of the season. After seeing the light, I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the team and getting to know them. I’m a big fan of JT— so much so that I get really fired up when I hear people speak negatively about him. I realize that he’s not perfect, but aren’t there five other guys on the ice with him that should be acting as “goalies” as well? Minding the net should be in everyone’s job description, no? This isn’t a mindless scoring sport like basketball. (Sorry basketball fans. I just have more respect for hockey.) Look at Ovie! He often throws himself in front of a flying puck.
So my question is this: why do we keep players who don’t pull their weight defensively (like Mo who actually has assisted the other teams in putting the puck in our net a couple of times this year) and then get upset with Jose when we lose? He’s not the only guy out there, after all. I don’t understand why our guys will pull it together (I guess this is the focus issue) when we have a Hershey goalie come up for us, but then they slack off when Jose is playing.
I’m a rookie fan, and I appreciate all the comments on here as it is you (and my fiancé) who educate me daily on the idiosyncrasies of the Caps as well as hockey in general.
First off, welcome Violetta! We’re happy to have you. And I must say that your fiancé sounds like a wonderful man!
I agree wholeheartedly that guys need to pull their weight defensively. As for why Morrisonn gets in the lineup even though he’s been…subpar….for most of the season, I think the issue is replacement. The team’s going to dress six defensemen and, although he makes mistakes, it’s the opinion of the coaching staff (and myself as well, for what it’s worth) that Mo is one of the six best defensemen the Capitals have under contract.
I think part of why Theodore gets blamed for losses is that, like the pitcher in baseball or the quarterback in football, a hockey goalie is a guy who is (1) different from all the other players in an obvious sense and (2) the only person who can singlehandedly win a game for his team. Ergo I think goalies (and pitchers and quarterbacks) are the easiest person to scapegoat when the team loses.
This woman’s got some moxie!!! I like the cut of her jib! ;)
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 23, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
In all seriousness, Jose gets heat because people are more likely to see that the puck went in the net, and not all the stuff that led UP TO the puck making that bingy bongy sound in the back of the net.
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 23, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think that folks here at the Rink are particularly savy about what leads up to, and causes goals. When Jose gives up a soft one, we say so. When Mo, Poti, Semin or Ovi makes a bad play that leaves Jose hung out to dry, we call BS on that player and leave Jose out of it.
I agree with your statements, but I was really referencing the people who don’t realize how great Jose’s been the last few monfs, and the outsiders in the press and in the blogosphere who still think the Caps have “goaltending issues”
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 23, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
There’s also a lot of water under that bridge. If JT hadn’t been so brilliant earlier in his career and so terrible a couple of years ago, I think people would approach him differently. But the emotional response to watching such a great goalie play so poorly for an extended period of time left a lot of folks sour, and I think he has more ground to make up than others.
by Gould Old Days on Feb 23, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Welcome, Violetta. You’ve come to the right place.
Oh, and the initiation isn’t nearly as painful as you might have heard… :)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’m ready! Just as long as there aren’t any creepy rituals, my fiery spirit us up for the challenge. :)
"For reason, ruling alone, is a force confining; and passion, unattended, is a flame that burns to its own destruction.
Therefore let your soul exalt your reason to the height of passion; that it may sing; " - The Prophet
What about Chris Clark jerseys with bad mojo? ;)
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 23, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
I’m thinking that jersey shouldn’t get washed until the season is over to keep you from bringing bad luck to our boys in red! ;)
"For reason, ruling alone, is a force confining; and passion, unattended, is a flame that burns to its own destruction.
Therefore let your soul exalt your reason to the height of passion; that it may sing; " - The Prophet
It was all Jose’s fault
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 23, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I may be short but I am mighty. Don’t make me get like Brash on you… jersey over the head and pummel!
"For reason, ruling alone, is a force confining; and passion, unattended, is a flame that burns to its own destruction.
Therefore let your soul exalt your reason to the height of passion; that it may sing; " - The Prophet
Brash or Semin?
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
1) Fans of one’s team usually see their teams’ flaws more acutely than non fans. From outsiders the Caps seem like a powerful foe/Cup contender. No team is without flaws/weaknesses.
2) The question is are they serious enough that they can/should they be addressed before the deadline, and what assets is the team willing to sacrifice to acquire them?
From outsiders the Caps seem like a powerful foe/Cup contender.
One thing that frequently annoys me whenever a capitals player/coach/GM is interviewed by the national media is the fact that this doesn’t seem to be the case, even though I would think that the Caps have played to a level that deserves such a sentiment.
Most recently, for example, I heard GMGM on XM with Mike Ross and Phil Esposito, and near the end of the Interview one of them (Espo, I believe) asked McPhee, “How close is this team to becoming a real Cup contender?” GMGM answered with tact, but I really wanted him to say something to the effect of, “Have you been paying any damn attention?”
Statistically speaking and going by W-L record, the Caps might not be the best team in the NHL…but it certainly isn’t a stretch to call this team a true “Cup contender”, at least I don’t think so.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 23, 2009 2:58 PM EST reply actions
Statistically speaking and going by W-L record, the Caps might not be the best team in the NHL…but it certainly isn’t a stretch to call this team a true "Cup contender", at least I don’t think so.
Agreed. I think they’ve been the second best team in the East this season. From that, you have to think their chances of getting to the Cup Finals are decent enough and once you’re in the Cup Finals either team can win.
I don’t think the Caps will win this year but I think they’re on the shortlist of teams that could.
1)Their record against East opponents should buoy fans of their chances. It would be another thing entirely if the NHL playoff format was like it was years ago when #1 played #16, 2 played 15 ,etc. They are assured of playing a team they have beaten regularly this season and have possibly home ice in the first two rounds
2) By the time a West team is an issue probably cap fans wouldn’t care who their opponent was; the Cup is in the building!
Even if they do lose focus when playing against “lesser” teams, they do always seem to step up when facing the top teams in the league. Granted, that lack of focus can be concerning, but I would be A LOT more concerned if they were consistently beating weaker teams but failing to find a way to win against the teams like Boston and NJ…which is not the case.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 23, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
I picked goaltending because Theo is getting Olie syndrome where he’s been good for one softie a game AND there is no real backup right now.
If Varly wasn’t hurt I probably would have picked leadership. I think the focus\discipline\other areas stem from having good leadership.
BUT I’m also not worried about them stepping it up when things count.
I’d have to agree with that, with a nod to secondary scoring. Once the playoffs start I think all the focus/discipline issues will cure themselves. I find it hard to envision a scenario where the Caps lose in the playoffs and nobody is saying “…but you can’t blame Theodore.”
Russian Machine Never Breaks
I disagree. I think, again, that goaltending improves with a better defensive corps. Theo has allowed, what, maybe two softies in his last ten games. I’m not a stats guy, but his numbers speak for themselves, and since Christmas, he’s been a brick wall. Brick walls do give up rebounds when shot against.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
I voted Other just because I could just pick one, heh. But I would have to start at goaltender first then discipline then defense. Though all of the voting option apply to some extent its almost like how each should be weighted out of a 100.
Goaltending – 20
Defense Corp – 15
Sec. Scoring -10
Discipline -20
Penalty Killing -10
Leadership -15
Focus – 10
Oh snap, if we’re doing it like that, I go:
Goaltending – 5
Defense Corps – 35
Sec. Scoring – 10
Discipline – 30
PK – 10
Leadership – 10
Focus I think intertwines with discipline.
I think Goaltending is fine, and we’re not going to get a better goaltender at the deadline. There’s just not one in our cap situation available.
A better defense corps, as I’ve stated before, will improve the PK. Better focus in turn creates better discipline. Leadership provides focus, so I don’t think the three of those are really all that separate.
I’d offer that I don’t think we have enough grit. Not saying we need a Matt Cooke (lol) but another guy like Brooks Laich would be damn sweet. Darcy Tucker comes to mind, though I hate the bastard. If there was a way he’d not be a locker room cancer, Avery comes to mind. We don’t have that one player who teams hate having to go up against. I wouldn’t cry if we re-acquired Simon or something for that job. Just someone. If Roenick wasn’t on a playoff team, he’d be my first choice. I suppose Tucker is a close second.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 23, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
I honestly cannot believe anyone voted for discipline as the biggest problem the capitals have, much less that it’s leading the vote. Really?
With the incredibly obvious lack of a defense corps, discipline got the majority of the vote?
I don’t think I can say it any more clear than this:
Shaone Morrisonn.
Milan Jurcina.
Jeff Schultz.
That’s HALF the defense corps, and they’re all absolutely terrible.
As for discipline… I don’t really see it as a problem. There’s the occasional bad/lazy penalty, but the overwhelming majority of calls made are inconsistent and/or flat out bad calls. The stats may show that the the caps are undisciplined, but this is another case of stats being misleading. If you watch the same games I do, I don’t see how you can actually think most of the calls are good calls. And if most of the calls are bad ones, you shouldn’t be counting them against the team in the category of “discipline.”
The Capitals lead the league in restraining fouls and have taken more minors than all but four other NHL teams.
Jeff Schultz has been one of the plus/minus leader on the team every year he’s been on the team and takes very few penalties despite playing against the opposition best forwards most nights.
So, in short, he plays good defense, without taking penalties, against the opposition’s best players. What more do you want from the guy?
Well Said!
I think Schultz is a great player. Just because he’s a solid “quiet” player who doesn’t get all the media attention—that’s no reason for people to knock him. My fiance teases me because I’ve wanted a Schultz jersey unlike the other lame chicks who only like Ovie, Green, or Semin shirts. :)
By the way, your posts are quite valuable. I enjoy them. Thanks!
"For reason, ruling alone, is a force confining; and passion, unattended, is a flame that burns to its own destruction.
Therefore let your soul exalt your reason to the height of passion; that it may sing; " - The Prophet
I could always get ya a Shaone Morrisonn or an Erskine? ;)
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 24, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
The Caps are already wasting money on Mo and Erskine—no need to waste ours. ;)
"For reason, ruling alone, is a force confining; and passion, unattended, is a flame that burns to its own destruction.
Therefore let your soul exalt your reason to the height of passion; that it may sing; " - The Prophet
I provided statistical support for my position. If you’re going to sway me, you’re going to have to do the same.
Why bother? You provided STATS. Like most everyone else, you live and die by stats, not what you watch.
I really couldn’t care less about swaying you, it’s obvious to me that you won’t be swayed by anything but numbers.
Doesn’t have to be numbers, it can be other kinds of evidence. But you have to have some justification for point. You can’t just say “Schultz sucks” over and over and over and think you’re making a point.
The evidence is the games. If you’re not seeing it, then you won’t see it just because I say it.
My point is as valid as ever. WATCH THE GAMES. KNOW AND UNDERSTAND HOCKEY. If you walk away from a game thinking “Damn, Jeff Schultz is such a good defenseman” then you have no idea what you just watched.
Look. Jeff Scultz represented Canada at a junior player. He was rated the 11th best North American skater going into the 2004 draft. He was a first round draft pick. The guy who built one of the best young teams in the NHL think he’s a top four defenseman, the guy who won the award for the NHL’s best coach thinks he’s a good defenseman and a valuable penalty killer. He plays against the opposition’s best players, doesn’t allow very many goals, takes few penalties and has been a plus player on every team and in every season he’s played professionally.
The scouts think he’s a good player. The management team thinks he’s a good player. Boudreau and his staff think he’s a good player. These are people who know and understand hockey. Schultz’s numbers, at every level, back up that assessment.
There’s a mountain of evidence in favor of Jeff Schultz being a good player and it’s going to take something other than “because I say so” to counter it.
No need to counter it. His play does that on it’s own.
Slow, out of position constantly, screens the goalie, can’t seem to clear the zone very often.
Like I said, watch a game, know hockey (your biggest problem, it seems) and you’ll understand what I’m getting at.
Hazardous, No need to be so contentious.
If you don’t want to look at statistics, then you should point to some concrete examples of when you’ve seen him play poorly. If he really was a chronic goal screener, wouldn’t that show up in his +/-, at least when he’s not on the PK? If he was out of position, wouldn’t he then be forced to either take penalties or allow a bunch of goals? The facts don’t bear this out.
by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Feb 24, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure we are watching the same games
The Caps objectively commit more penalties than their opponents. Why this happens, I’m not sure. Their aggressive system seems to lead to more odd man rushes for the other team, leading to many of the tripping/hooking/slashing penalties we take. I remember a litany of Green, Semin, and Jurcina penalties that fit into this mold. You’re suggesting that the league is biased against us? Not an argument I want to get in to, but the Caps are possibly the most marketable team in the league with a newly enlarged t.v. viewership, all the recipes of a team the league would love to see get deep in to the playoffs.
And Jeff Schultz. He’s possibly our most solid defensive defenseman (though Poti has been awfully solid recently, especially on the PK). And I understand +/- is a somewhat flawed statistic, but his +18 speaks to his 5 on 5 competence. Not everyone can be Mike Green.
by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Feb 24, 2009 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
I think what Haz is trying to say is that night in and night out, there seem to be many times when the inconsistencies of the officiating kill our team. Like it or not, how many times have you seen Morrisonn, Jurcina, Ovechkin, or Semin charged with a hook? And when the same hook is given by an opposing player, the call is negated. I’ve seen it often.
I offer two explanations.
1) The refs are paid. I doubt this one, only because if refs are being paid by every team, why would we be the only exception?
2) Referees often go into games with dispositions on what to look for. Referees know going in which guys are chronic to the box. I would not be at all surprised to find out a referee has heard that someone is a chronic trip artist, and so they watch close for the trip. If you don’t believe this idea, then look at the amount of checking fouls (Charging, checking from behind) that Ovechkin was called for before he was labelled a “Dirty hitter” and then after.
Like it or not, labels go a long way. And it’s not always obvious, and not every ref lets that influence them. But if you know a guy is a fighter, you’re going to be less inclined as a linesman to let him talk smack. And if he has a reputation as a dirty player, who sneaks in elbows, you’re going to watch for that. How can you not expect them to look for the trips, hooks, and holds?
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
I follow your logic, I just don’t agree with your conclusion.
You are arguing that the Caps have been labeled by referees as a team that commits a lot of infractions, and that this causes us to get called for a lot of penalties. In this sense, our reputation is a self-fulfilling prophecy, as our reputation is solidified by all the “reputation” penalties we receive. However, last year we were called for the 7th fewest minor penalties in the league with a very similar roster. Therefore, your argument implies that our notoriety as a team that commits a lot of penalties has been created this season. With the possible exception of Ovechkin, who has received a little press for his hitting (and frankly, I’ve seen a few checks of his where he left his feet that have not been called), that does not seem likely or even possible.
I’m not saying reputation penalties don’t occur – they do – I just don’t think that’s the cause of our spike in infractions. Remember also that your argument cuts the other way too. Opponents are also labeled as dirty players and will get penalized as such. Specifically, I recall a game against the Pens earlier this year when Matt Cooke was called for charging OV after OV checked Crosby, and Cooke barely touched him. This was one the clearest reputation/anticipation penalties I’ve ever seen.
by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Feb 24, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions
+55.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Feb 24, 2009 7:39 AM EST up reply actions
Stathumpers… what can even be said? You, like DMG, won’t be swayed by anything but stats. Plus/minus IS a misleading stat, because if you watch the same games I do, you’d think differently about Schultz. To call him a solid defenseman is laughable. I’ll take a traffic cone before I take that goaltender-screening goofass.
I’m also wholly unsure why you brought up Mike Green as some sort of comparison. He’s probably our worse defenseman when you consider DEFENSE. He’s horrible. His contributions to the rush and offense are what make him worthwhile, but as far as defensive play is concerned, he’s utterly bad. Not a guy you want to compare a defensive defenseman to, especially if you’re going to place him ABOVE the guy you’re trying to speak good on.
Haz,
I understand your point about statistics not always telling the whole story. This can be particularly true for goaltenders and defensemen, as GAA and +/- are influenced heavily by teammates’ play and the type of system one is playing within. Also, I agree Schultz has a lot to learn and his inexperience, size and skating style can combine to make him appear awkward or even lost out there. BUT…
DMG’s points are valid. League scouts and Schultz’s own coach think his play is just fine. He’s on the right track towards becoming a very good top-pairing defenseman. If he was indeed a ‘pylon/goofass’ as your brilliant hockey mind has asserted, his statistics surely would reflect that. The kid was a plus-20 his final year in juniors, a plus-20 in his first professional season in Hershey, and is plus-34 at age 23 after just 150 NHL games. That’s indicative of a solid defenseman who has a ton of promise.
As for DMG and others here being ‘stathumpers’, I’ve yet to find another blog that analyzes NHL statistics to the same degree as this one. Or one that keeps the discourse as intelligent and civil as this, either. Your assessment of Schultz, or anything else, is surely welcome. Try to make your points and defend them with a bit more decorum, however.
Oh, and fuck Philadelphia…
However, last year we were called for the 7th fewest minor penalties in the league with a very similar roster.
I took a quick look at that stuff here, and the point I was trying to make is that careless penalties, with the PK system that’s in place, is slightly dangerous.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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