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THN lists its top 30 goalies (h/t KK), and Jose Theodore comes in at #27, down seven spots from last year. Buy or sell JT being that far down the list? Put another way, how many (and who) of the Top 26 would you rather have JT than?

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The first eleven are guys who are better than Theodore. After that, it’s a toss up at best. But I know I’d rather have Theodore than, say, Manny Fernandez, Chris Mason, or Cam Ward.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

I’d flip a coin on Fernandez, but I’d take Theo over Chris Mason, Conklin, Roloson and Niitty in a hot second (not to mention I’d take him over Clemmensen in the Caps’ system ).

Also, Hiller in the Top 10? Really?

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by J.P. on Feb 20, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll be honest. I missed Hillier in the top ten somehow (I think I saw ‘Luongo’ out of my peripheral vision to moved past him).

I think the list goes to underscore Ken Holland’s philosophy: there are a few great goalies and after that it’s a mishmash and the result depend on hot streaks, system, etc.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d agree with that for the most part. Early in the season, I wasn’t impressed with JT…at all, but he’s been playing very well lately, save for an off night here and there (and even the best netminders have those). Plus, he seems to be more and more comfortable every day now that his starting job has become permanent…he seems confident and looks like he “owns the net”…which is what I want to see.

All year we keep hearing the ‘ol “The Caps biggest question mark coming into the playoffs will be their goaltending…” Well, I don’t buy that (although I am a bit concerned about the backup situation). So far, Theo has proven he can play well enough for this team to win most games. Given the Caps’ play as of late, I’d have to agree with one JP’s post earlier and say my biggest concern as we approach the playoffs is lack of secondary scoring…not netminding.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 20, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

The fair point on Theodore is that he has been consistently inconsistent in recent years. As well as he’s been playing since Christmas, who’s to say that he won’t fall off the cliff come March? All we can do is hold our breath, and try to convince ourselves that his calm confidence and solid play are here to stay.

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by J.P. on Feb 20, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d have to agree with one JP’s post earlier and say my biggest concern as we approach the playoffs is lack of secondary scoring…not netminding.

Mine’s defense. With Semin, Backstrom, Fehr, Fedorov, Kozlov, Fleischmann…I have faith that someone will be putting the puck in the net consistently. On the back end there’s Poti and Schultz who can match up with another team’s top guys, but that’s it (Green may have the talent, but he needs to be able to look for offensive chances to maximize his effectiveness).

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed (and I don’t think I said the lack of secondary scoring was my biggest concern – just a concern… I’m a worrier, so I have many), particularly b/c if the defense is addressed, the secondary scoring becomes a little less important (moreso, I think, than the opposite would, if that makes sense).

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by J.P. on Feb 20, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

That makes sense…and sorry JP, I wasn’t trying to imply that you that felt secondary scoring was your biggest concern, I was just indicating that you had written a recent post on the lack of secondary scoring.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 20, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s only like 5 ot 6 guys ranked above our JT60 that I’d probably rather have. Thomas, Backstrom, Mason, Nabokov, Luongo, and Kipper, basically. The rest… toss-up, pretty much. JT has been red hot the last few months, and some of those other guys..not so much. For example, how’d MA Fleury make it in ahead of JT?

by capsfan4life on Feb 20, 2009 3:01 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, pretty easily.

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by J.P. on Feb 20, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure they must have compiled this list about 4 months ago and just printed it

But here are the ones I’d take Theo over…and I’m including a playoff run in my calculations.

Clemmenson, Fernandez, Nittymaki, Mason, Turco, Conklin, Anderson, Ward, Smith (really?), Roloson, and Hiller. So that makes him about 13 or 14 on the list, about where he should be, middle of the road, which is all we really asked for from our goalie, isn’t it?

by wittcap79 on Feb 20, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions  

I’m pretty sure they must have compiled this list about 4 months ago and just printed it

They must have been psychics on Steve Mason, huh? ;-)

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

It's still

a shitty list, with shitty goalies who are “ranked” nowhere near the realistic expectations for them. Clemmensen and M. Smith? Honestly?

by wittcap79 on Feb 20, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

What I can’t understand is why guys like Clemmenson and Fernandez are so high and Ty Conklin’s 18th. Maybe they figure “anyone can put up good stats for Detroit”, like “anyone can put up good stats playing on Ovechkin’s line”.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Boston and Detroit have good defenses. I could be 20th on that list if I was the goalie for Boston. Stretch would crack the top five.

How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?

by Whiter Mage on Feb 20, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll buy Boston, but one of the stories of the year in Detroit has been that its defense isn’t going nearly as well as in recent years.

Statistically, they’re middle of the pack.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Nor is the goal tending

Osgood has not been up to his own level and Conklin comes and goes.

by Wisper on Feb 20, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I meant Historically, and that people picking these things take history into account far too often.

How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?

by Whiter Mage on Feb 21, 2009 3:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough; I can buy that.

by David Getz on Feb 21, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

In other news...

Osgood got benched today. Kinda puts the lie to the “anyone can play goal for DET” claim (not that I’m saying you endorsed that claim).

by Rob Parker on Feb 20, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

More likely, it was compiled by just looking at the stats and not at trends, games, systems, etc.

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by J.P. on Feb 20, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Bingo. It’s just stats from 2/3 of one season. Why else would Mason, Clemmenson, and Hillier be so high?

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

If its just stats, then how did Price/Fleury/Roloson get ahead of Theo? And how is Turco so high on the list? He was brutal for the first half…

by Sct112 on Feb 20, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Really, it’s just a list (like any similar list) designed to spark discussion and debate. There is no rhyme or reason to the rankings, just one dude’s opinion.

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by J.P. on Feb 20, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, but what is discussion without passion and anger… especially when our guy got snubbed :)

Theo’s stats aren’t great, so he shouldn’t be in the top ten, but there are some weird ones up there… Turco being ahead of Huet for instance?

by Sct112 on Feb 20, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

You think the MSM looks at stats?

Most of the garbage from the MSM is based on general reputation – who has gotten what kind of pub from others in the MSM.

This explains the Mason inclusion – he’s a phenom, doncha know? And Clemmensen – been almost as good as Brodeur! Turco? Everyone knows he’s a solid G.

Conversely, it’s common knowledge that JT is a stiff.

Eff the mainstream media – gotta come to blogs to find real insight.

by fat_daddyo on Feb 20, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually had to go back and make sure that Marty wasn’t on the list… I did expect him to be there.

by Sct112 on Feb 20, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

All three have better save percentages, Roloson has a better GAA and Price has the same GAA.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

That was a internal monologue that got posted (I don’t know how many comments I type and delete). oops.

My thought was “It must be based on stats.” Fleury and Price are both being blamed (in part) for under performing teams and there numbers are “eh” at best. Roloson is playing for a team that likely won’t go anywhere and putting up OK numbers… and Turco, well him being 15 throws a wrench in my entire effort at explaining how this list could have been compiled.

Truth be told, I’m just refreshing all of these topics in an effort to kill time before I can leave work and head for Fado’s. I’ll be the tall bearded guy with a Smithwick’s.

by Sct112 on Feb 20, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope JT see’s this and post’s this up in his locker. And takes it down in June with a big ol’ smile on his face.

by vt caps fan on Feb 20, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

since December 1...

Theo’s numbers are as good as anyone else’s. but as a goalie myself (playground and pond level, i assure you), he always seems awkward to me to watch. he has to be the worst skating goalie in the league. he looks like he’s gonna trip over his stick or something everytime he tries to handle the puck. he might have one of the best butterfly in the league, but he’s real shaky elsewhere.

his glove and blocker are simply average. he’s doing better at controlling rebounds while he’s been hot, but he’s still real bouncy. and again, brutal with the stick. maybe it’s because he’s just a little fella (listed at 5’11", 182) and he’s gotta carry all the equipment, but to me he just doesn’t carry himself well, unless he’s dropping into the butterfly.

i’m happy he’s playing well right now and pray it continues. maybe i just have a preference for bigger goalies (positioning over reaction), since i qualify as the former, not the latter.

by CAPS NEWS NETWORK on Feb 20, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

An interesting take

I’d think his quick reactions would be something that would help his glove, and I personally think his glove is above average while his blocker is not. (I’m not a goalie, just an observer) You’re statement about size however is very interesting to me, yes, he’s 5’11", but what does that say for our two up-and-comers.

Neuvirth – 6’ 180lbs, seems to be very solid technically, not the quickest.
Valamov – 6’1" 190lbs, extremely athletic, very quick, not quite as sound technically, IMHO

Just as a comparison

Brodeur – 6’2" 190
Hasek – 5’11" 170

I just don’t think his ~6ft frame has anything to do with it.

by wittcap79 on Feb 20, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

agree on Varlamov, haven't seen Neuvirth play enough to comment

Varlamov is excelling on natural athletic ability. his positioning is not particularly good, and he’s still learning a feel for the game, but he is an incredible athlete. that, and the injuries, is why they wanted him to play a full season in Hershey (so much for that idea). also, he expends WAY too much energy—in games, in practice and on off-days. he’s like a wind up toy that bounces all over the place, then just shuts off when it’s run down.

my crack on Theo’s size wasn’t to condemn all smallish goalies, just maybe him. i’ve seen him without his gear on, he doesn’t strike me as the strongest athlete on the team.

by CAPS NEWS NETWORK on Feb 20, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn’t sleep for six weeks and wake up on April 1st, did I? Or are they dipping too deeply into the Molson up there? Where do you start?

Miikka Kipprisoff at 11…he had a great year in 2005-2006 and has turned into a throroughly average goaltender since.

Jonas Hiller at 9?…Let me guess, Jonas’ mom is really good with computer code and wrote a program to stuff the ballot box (or is that just an all-star thing). He’s been an NHL goalie for eight seconds, for heaven’s sake.

Manny Fernandez at 13…he’s played more than 50 games in a season exactly once, or is this just a “how they’re doing right now” thing?

Because if that’s the case, then ‘splain to me Miller at 5, because he’s given up five goals (maybe that’s it) in three of his last 12 games and has been below a 90% save percentage in six of those games. He does have two shutouts, so we’re guessing inconsistency isn’t a problem for those guys.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 20, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions  

Goalies in hockey’s salary cap era are quickly becoming like running backs in NFL. Other than Luongo and probably Lundqvist, that’s one amorphous blob of goalies who can be very good or somewhat bad.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Feb 20, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

My list

The top 10 goalies I’d most like to have going into the 2009 postseason, if healthy:

1 Lundqvist
2 Vokoun (the most underrated player in hockey — see page 26 of this Hockey Analytics report in pdf)
3 Luongo
4 Brodeur
5 The other Backstrom
6 Ryan Miller
7 Evgeni Nabokov
8 Tim Thomas
9 Kiprusoff (Who I think is better than he’s played in Calgary. A change of teams would do him good)
10 Jose Theodore

To me, the top four are in a pack, followed by the next three, and then the last three.

by Gould Old Days on Feb 20, 2009 4:19 PM EST reply actions  

Henrik Lundqvist #1?

Really? Interesting…

I haven’t seen all that much of HL this year, but I’ve not thought he was at the top of his game when I have seen him.

Agree with you about Vokoun.

by fat_daddyo on Feb 20, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Vokoun is a great in fantasy hockey and stat-geek lovin worlds. I don’t see him as elite though, especially with a very limited (and average) playoff resume. Lundqvist would be my top guy as well, by a LOT, due to health questions about Luongo and age/injury of Brodeur.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Feb 20, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Vokoun is a great in fantasy hockey and stat-geek lovin worlds. I don’t see him as elite though, especially with a very limited (and average) playoff resume.

I don’t know. Since he became a starter he’s had one year of under .919 save percentage. That doesn’t happen by accident.

FWIW, his .922 playoff save percentage is the same as Martin Brodeur’s, despite him playing on Nashville teams that were clearly overmatched by San Jose and Detroit.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Certainly can’t fault anyone for losing to Detroit, but that San Jose series was a 4/5 matchup of teams with virtually identical records. He may not have stunk it up but he didn’t steal the series, either. It’s very hard to differentiate goalies, but winning has to be in the criteria.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Feb 20, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Their overall records may have been similar but that was the year San Jose finished up the season 13-1-3 through (most of) March and April. Nashville, on the other hand, finished the season on a down note at 5-5-2.

by David Getz on Feb 20, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank you, Hockey News!

Please show more disrespect for Theo’s game. Based on his quotes, this is a guy who just loves to show his detractors how wrong they are. Maybe he’s got a Napolean complex. In any case, keep telling him how bad he is. Maybe he’ll win a Cup just to prove you wrong. Oh, and while you’re at it, tell Ovie he’s not MVP material.

by b.orr4 on Feb 20, 2009 4:48 PM EST reply actions  

Turco

Whaddya think? I say he gets 10 assists a year passing the puck up ice to breaking Caps. You take the under or the over?

by bilspacecadet on Feb 20, 2009 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

And allows 20 bad goals from being out of position playing the puck…

by Gould Old Days on Feb 20, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

better than the 20 bad goals a year from being in position we’ve seen from our goalies in the last few years…

by bilspacecadet on Feb 20, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Sell

This team’s defense is going to be its downfall, not its goaltending.

by urhockey22 on Feb 21, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions  


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