Nylander for Kovalev - Could it work?
by grapejoos on Feb 18, 2009 1:04 PM EST
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PrintPer DMG's suggestion, I'm breaking this out into a fanpost.
All of the Kovalev talk and rumors that the Habs are shopping him made me wonder, would they take Nylander in a deal for Kovalev? I've gotten accustomed to viewing Nylander as untradeable, but I think if there is a way to move him, this might be the only way to do it.
The NMC: Nylander has a NMC, and getting him to waive that is a strict requirement. But there's some reason to think that he might to play for Montreal. Most players regard Montreal as one of the best cities to play in, if you can handle the pressure. Nylander's played in New York, so he can probably deal with that. Whether he's willing to waive the NMC at all is very much in question, but you'd think that if he would go anywhere, Montreal is a possibility.
Pros/Cons for Montreal: It seems like the Habs might want to move Kovalev no matter what. His $4.5m contract expires in the offseason and right now they think they're a better team without him. This would get rid of Kovalev. They are also lacking in center depth now and in terms of guys under contract beyond this year. They just lost Lang for the year and both Koivu and Lang are UFAs after this season (their only Cs under contract per nhlnumbers in 09 are Lapierre, Chipchura, and Maxwell; Higgins and Plekanec are RFAs). Nylander also plays well against MTL for some reason, so there might be some extra incentive there (4 points in 3 games this year, 2 points in 2 games last year, 4 points in 4 games in 06-07).
As for the cons, the problem with Nylander is that he has been lost for the Caps and is under contract for 2 more years for a lot of money. With any other team, I think the contract is a dealbreaker. I'm not sure it would be for Montreal for the reasons mentioned. This might be worth the risk for them.
Pros/Cons for the Caps: Getting rid of Nylander's contractual obligations beyond this year is probably reason enough for the Caps, and they would be getting back an enigmatic but talented Russian in Kovalev with a lot of playoff experience. Kovalev is a UFA after this year, so this would be an NBA-style "expiring contract" type of move. But Kovalev could have some upside on a team alongside Ovi, Semin, and Fedorov (and possibly Kozlov). You have to think that if there is any team where Kovalev could find some sort of fire, it would be with the Russians the Caps already have.
The biggest con for the Caps is that they would lose depth at center and, after this year, might not have another #2-type center on the roster. They'd also be getting an enigmatic guy who might not buy into a secondary role or play hard at both ends of the ice.
For me, this move would be a great way to successfully dump Nylander's salary and have Kovalev as a low-risk rental. If he plays well, the team can discuss bringing him back, but if he doesn't or chooses to sign elsewhere, they will have Nylander's money freed up and an army of free agents that want to play in Washington. Depending on what kind of extra picks/prospects Montreal would want as compensation for taking on Nylander's contract, this deal might be a no-brainer for the Caps.
What do you think, Caps faithful? Would you do this deal in principle? How much would you be willing to throw in to make it happen?
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kozlov
has kozlov ever played C while with the caps?
to me, any nylander trade scenario is strengthened if kozlov can slide into the third center role. if not koz, then laich? or boyd gordon?
Agreed. At best, Kozlov is a finish-the-game stop gap at C.
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I think Gainey will have lost his mind
But I would do this deal in a new york minute; I think it would take another prospect from us to get it done, but I like your thinking. Problem is, I think he is a key piece for MTL to trade to TB for Lecavalier, whom they absolutely covet.
I’m not sure I see it either – he is a name, but he’s expensive, and I’d bet if Tampa is considering shipping out Vinny and St. Louis (aka their 2 good and expensive players), they want to cut costs big time.
Maybe the Caps can give them something Tampa might want as part of the package? Mo and a pick/prospect? I’d probably give them any prospect not on the Caps roster, excepting Alzner, Varlamov, Carlson, and Neuvirth.
my theory is that if TB does move Vinny and his 6.8 cap hit to MTL, which is fairly close to the cap, Kovalev’s (or Koivu’s or, less likely, Tanguay’s) salary will have to be shuttled. I think it would be the cheaper pieces, frankly, that would have to entice TB to make the move with MTL in the first place (like Komisarek or D’Agostini).
According to Gainey, all the “Montreal heart Vinny” rumors were started by Brian Lawton down in Tampa, and they’ve never had any serious interest in acquiring him (take that for what it’s worth).
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The main concern of mine would be the number of wings on the Capitals. As it stands they have six guys for the six spots on the top three lines (Ovechkin, Semin, Kozlov, Laich, Fehr, Fleischmann), and so someone is the odd man out if everyone’s healthy (which is, of course, a big if).
What is intriguing me at the moment is a deal centered around Nylander and Morrisonn for Komisarek. Gives the Capitals an upgrade on defense and gives the Canadiens a center, an offensive player, and a decent enough blueliner to mitigate the effect of losing Komisarek.
All that said, I would be getting Nylander to waive his NMC midseason would be very, very difficult.
I think Laich or Kozlov probably have to slide to center if this deal happened, so that would leave lines something like this:
Ovi-Backs-Kozlov
Semin-Laich-Kovalev
Flash-Fedorov-Fehr (probably would swap Laich and Feds, but this keeps “F Street” together)
Bradley/Brash-Steckel-Gordon
In my opinion, that’s a pretty formidible trio of scoring lines, but there may not be enough grit there, to put it mildly.
As for Komisarek, I’d be interested in that too. He’s also a UFA, and it seems like the Habs would need to create some cap space to take back Nylander in a deal like that. But I agree that Komo would be a nice upgrade.
I think I prefer:
SOB
F Street
Kozlov – Laich – Kovalev
Bradley/Brash – Steckel – Gordon
I like having Brooks crash the net between Kovalev and Kozlov.
But this is all very intriguing. Kovalev is a better fit for this team than Nylander is right now, for sure, and I like the idea of getting Nylander off the books for the next two years.
by Gould Old Days on Feb 18, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
My 2 cents:
Ovi – Backstrom – Kozlov
Semin – Fedorov – Kovalev
Flash – Laich – Fehr
Brads/Brash – Stecks – Gordo
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What is intriguing me at the moment is a deal centered around Nylander and Morrisonn for Komisarek
+2. Were the Caps able to swing this, that would enable us to make another move to address a future C AND perhaps add a gritty RW.
Of all the FAs MTL has facing them Komisarek is the least likely to go anywhere. He is a stud shutdown dman that is just about to enter his prime. The Habs have a ton of forwards going into FA and they can remain competitive with any combination of them. They have to keep Komisarek in order to keep their D corps respectable. They will not trade their D stud for a couple of cast offs.
While I agree that he’s a full-on stud, keeping Komi is no done deal, especially with $11+ million tied up in Markov and Hamrlik for two more years. Komisarek will be around $6m next year – are they really going to go over $17m for three D? By contrast, the Caps entire current blueline of Green, Poti, Mo, Juice, Erskine, Kronwall and Pothier is under $16m.
Sidenote: Roman Hamrlik is a $5.5m D?!
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I think they’d waive Hamrlik and eat the 25% before they trade Komisarek. I think Komisarek is such a fan favorite that it would be a serious revolt if they moved him. I’m with F&B – I’d really be shocked to see him traded. (but I’ve been shocked before)
by Gould Old Days on Feb 18, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I’d be surprised if they traded him, too. But I don’t think re-signing him is going to be a slam-dunk.
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I’d also be shocked if he can get 6 mill. I can’t think of another purely defensive defenseman making that much money. The rest of the D in that salary bracket are point producers or at least puck movers. I think he gets 5 mill but I dont think he makes it to 6.
I’d agree. I have him around $5.25, but you never know who’s going to break the bank.
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Nyls for 4.5 Mill?! MON is in the same boat as us, just sinking a bit deeper. MON will trade Hamrlik somehow so they can keep Komisarek. Can you imagine in two years if Nyls is still on our books GMGM letting Baxter or Semin walk because he has so much tied up in AO and Nyls? No chance. MON will make sure they keep Komisarek and try to deal Hamrlik to a team that needs D depth or salary help to make the cap floor.
Who would want Hamrlik at $5.5m when they could presumably bid for Komisarek at that price?
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A) a team that needs someone on the PP (ATL) B) a team that can’t get Komisarek to sign with them (I assume there are at least a few franchises he would refuse to go to)
Maybe, but you’d have to think that most teams are either going to be in a situation where they have better ways to spend that 5.5 million in cap space or aren’t going to be interested anyway.
Atlanta’s actually a good example of that. They have Enstrom, Hainsey, and Bogosian as three of their top four and Enstrom and Hainsey to play the powerplay, so I don’t see them committing another 5.5 million to a powerplay guy.
I hope teams don’t think like that, what do we do with Nyls if they do!?! Maybe ATL isn’t the best example but they definitely need defensive depth and Enstrom has had a significant drop off in his play this year. My point is that come summertime someone is going to want an experienced defenseman that can run a PP. How many teams are going to want an aging Nylander that hasn’t been able to put up points on one of the highest scoring teams in the league and a wide open system?
That’s the problem and why I’m so lustily hyping this trade possibility. The Caps should do virtually anything they can to get rid of Nylander if he will waive his NMC. Kovalev just seemed like a good way to do that, since he makes about the same amount and the Habs really need a scoring line-caliber center.
My point is that come summertime someone is going to want an experienced defenseman that can run a PP.
Yes, but how many of them are going to both be willing to pay the guy 5.5 million and willing to give up assets to get him?
I don’t think you have to do both. Contract price plays into return value. Hamrlik at 1.5 maybe gets a first round pick; Hamrlik at 5.5, not so much. For ATL or anyone else to eat that salary they are going to offer way less than what his talent would require, and MON would be happy to have the cap space. Think about us with Nyls. Nobody would require a 1 or 2 or any kind of impact player. We’d be happy to just have someone take him.
Nylander at 4.5 would be better than Nylander at 4.875…
I don’t think that’s a perfect analogy, though because it oversimplifies things by not taking in to account the whole team. If Montreal re-signs Komisarek at 5 million, they’re at 28.4 million with only 12 players signed, including only four forwards currently in the NHL. Their top line next season, counting only players who are signed, would be the Kostitsyn brothers and Maxime Lapierre. Plekanec and Higgins will be back, but they’ll probably cost $5M, which would be 33.4 million in cap space taken up for 14 players, and no top line forward in sight.
Nylander doesn’t fix that. He’s not a top line player. Plekanec definitely does not deserve 5 mill. and Higgins is a stretch at 5. If I am MON I set my budget on those guys at about 4/4.5, respectably, and take the RFA package if someone over bids them (similar to the discussions we all had about Green last summer). Nyls has done very little with the Caps and he clearly needs a top flight scorer to make him effective. But MON doesn’t really have a top flight scorer for him to play with. Why would they trade a young expensive piece that they do need for an old expensive piece that they don’t need?
Why would they trade a young expensive piece that they do need for an old expensive piece that they don’t need?
Because (1) They might not have that piece come summer in any event and (2) with the players they have now, the team is hurting at forward and has several quality defensemen. Plus, Morrisonn would mitigate the effect of losing Komisarek.
The amount that ShaMo mitigates the effect of losing Komisarek is exactly the inverse of the amount that Komisarek makes our team better. That is to say, not much. If you were a Habs fan how much comfort would you get from getting ShaMo back to bolster your blueline?
The amount that ShaMo mitigates the effect of losing Komisarek is exactly the inverse of the amount that Komisarek makes our team better.
I don’t think that true, because the amount a player makes a team better is contingent on who else is on the team. But if you were to think of it like that, the question is whether or not Nylander is enough to make up the difference between Komisarek and Morrisonn. It might be, it might not be, but I think it’s a pretty logical starting point for trade discussion.
Honestly, I don’t know how I’d feel about it as a Habs fan because I’m not familiar enough with how their guys are playing or who is in the system for down the road.
Yeah it may not be entirely mathematically accurate. I’m trying to get at the point that as a Caps fan I would be ECSTATIC if that trade happened. That kind of feeling generally means a trade is one-sided right? That means the Habs fans would be much less ecstatic, right? How many swaps involve stud players and work out both ways?
I don’t think the measuring stick for whether a trade is a good idea should be how the fans react, and I don’t think general managers think that way either. For example, there were a lot of fans in Atlanta who were pretty upset when Hossa was traded, despite it obviously being the right move for the Thrashers.
If Komisarek came to DC, played the last month of the regular season and the playoffs, and left to sign elsewhere while Morrisonn became a decent, reasonably priced defenseman and Nylander a solid top six player in Montreal, I would have to think it would have worked out pretty well for Montreal, whatever the fans initial reaction would be.
Obviously I am not saying fan reaction is the end all be all, or even a factor to a GM. But when the talent matchups are so obvious i think that is something a GM would notice and consider.
that’s an excellent point. What do you think Komisarek’s next deal will look like, or whose current deal would you think is comparable?
Well (and I recognize that the question wasn’t directed at me), looking at Ds who deliver almost no offense but rock solid D:
Shaone Morrisonn makes… just kidding.
I guess you’d look at guys like Robyn Regehr ($4m), Scott Hannan ($4.5m), Jay McKee ($4m signed a while ago), and Hatcher, Phillips, Finger, Mitchell (all $3.5m signed at various times).
Basically, you won’t find a $5+ m defenseman who provides less offense than Komi. That said, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t a $5+ m guy this summer.
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It’s not a couple of castoffs, it’s another defensive defenseman and a decent player at a position of need. And Komisarek hasn’t been nearly as good this year, by all accounts. But that’s also why I qualified it with “centered around”.
I’ve been hearing on a pretty regular basis that Komisarek’s not likely to be back with the Canadiens due to his free agency. I’d expect him to land in the 4.5-5.25 million per year range and I don’t think that’s something Montreal can afford. Ergo, they have to make personnel decision with him based on this season and, given the Canadiens current roster situation, I’m not sure they’d be better with Komisarek than with Morrisonn and Nylander.
I think Komisarek makes about 5 mill. (See above). But I also think MON can and will keep him. He missed a good amount of time this year with a shoulder injury so any drop in play I would attribute to that. I just think he’s too valuable to let go. There are fewer stud shutdown players than there are teams in this league and MON is in big trouble without him on that blue line.
There’s no doubt they can keep him, whether it’s in their best interest to keep him given their precarious forward situation is another question.
I just don’t see how it can not be in their interest to keep him. Unless MON wants to try to start a rebuild they cannot be competitive with that blueline minus Komisarek. They don’t have any Forwards that are going to be ready to step up and play big minutes for them so they do have to resign a bunch of their own guys and/or some FAs. They do have a bunch of talent on the blueline in their prospect pool, but none of those players are anywhere near stepping in for Komisarek. Maybe they trade a couple defensive prospects for some help. I don’t know. All I am sure of is that if MON resigns most of their forward FAs and lets Komisarek walk they will be a worse team than they are now.
All I am sure of is that if MON resigns most of their forward FAs and lets Komisarek walk they will be a worse team than they are now.
Yes, but by the same token if they re-sign Komisarek and let all their UFA forwards walk, they’re a worse team next year than they are now.
Their cap situation is such that they’re going to be a worse team than they are now under pretty much any set of circumstances. It doesn’t matter how good they are compared to this year, what matters to them is looking at the 2009-10 scenarios and picking the best one and that may not involve Komisarek.
Ok, so they are taking a step back regardless. Then should they sign Komisarek long term, sign Plekanec and Higgins and let the old guys (Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay) walk? They’d be mediocre but they’d have the core of a team to compete in a couple years when Hamrlik is off the books and some of their prospects are ready to step up. Losing Komisarek doesn’t make sense for next season or for the next several seasons.
Kovalev is a great talent, has great moves, soft hands, is not small, doesn’t like the physical game, but doesn’t have to like it. Has a bit of a dirty streak in him, and really good shot that he delivers accurately.
All good things come with issues and there’s a reason he has bounced around the league like Adam Oates. His attitude and ego sometimes get in the way of his talent. Now Oates was a great talent, but he managed to alienate the Red Wings, Blues, Bruins, Caps and Flyers and Ducks during his career, despite being one of the best playmakers ever. Kovalev isn’t anywhere near as talented as Oates and can cause disruption in the locker room.
Nylander is guy the Caps really could move, but to get Kovalev….no thanks.
Now if the Habs think they have a glut on the backline (and they actually do, which is why they let Souray walk) then the Caps and Habs have something to talk about with Nylander and someone going to Montreal for one of their d-men…
Update
- The Montreal Gazette reports that the Canadiens have been shopping winger Alex Kovalev since the beginning of February, without any takers.
http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960&lid=sublink01&lpos=headlines_nhl
If it ain't broke, don't break it.
Unfortunately, I don’t think they’d do a deal like this if they’re in contention. I’m still 100% in favor of something with those principals. Best case, Kovalev plays hard surrounded by the Russians and a legit shot at the cup. Worst case, no more Nylander contract. I’m probably dreaming but hoping the Habs get desperate.
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
53 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 60 |
|
Florida
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|
Winnipeg
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55 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 56 |
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Tampa Bay
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52 | 23 | 24 | 5 | 51 |
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Carolina
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55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
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