Tom Poti: The Key To The Kill?
by David M. Getz on Feb 18, 2009 12:00 PM EST
36 comments
On their recent swing through Florida the Capitals did a lot of things right. Most of them - significant offensive output, timely goaltending, a strong powerplay, contributions from rookies - were nothing new for this season.
One notable exception (and a pleasant surprise indeed) was the team's penalty kill which, despite being in the bottom third of the league in terms of effectiveness at 80.1%, killed eleven of twelve penalties in the back-to-back games, including eight of nine against the Lightning on Saturday night. Of course, neither the Lightning nor the Panthers exactly set the world on fire when it comes to powerplay effectiveness, but it was no doubt an encouraging showing for a team that has struggled shorthanded for most of the season. And right at the center of the Capitals' penalty kill unit was Tom Poti who, with 4:38 of penalty kill against Tampa Bay and 7:02 of penalty kill time against Florida, led all Caps player in shorthanded time on ice in each game.
The team's road trip to Florida served as a microcosm of Poti's impact since his return to the lineup. In the fifteen games Poti missed between December 23rd and January 27th, the Capitals killed only 75% (48 of 64) of the shorthanded chances they faced and had allowed at least one powerplay goal in eight straight games (half of which saw them concede more than one goal while a man (or two) short). Since Poti's return to the lineup on January 31st, however, the Capitals have killed 88.8% (40 of 45) of their penalties, have allowed powerplay goals in just five of their eight games, and have yet to allow more than one on a single night,.
The marked difference between the performance of the team's powerplay with Poti in the lineup got me wondering just how big the defenseman's impact has been this season. Here's what I found:
| Without Poti | With Poti | |
| Games | 26 | 31 |
| Opp. Comb. Record |
640-592-165 | 861-675-210 |
| Opp. Win Pct | 51.7 | 55.3 |
| GF/Game | 2.85 | 3.71 |
| GA/Game | 2.62 | 2.97 |
| Goal Diff/Game | .23 | .78 |
| Shots/Game | 33.7 | 31.6 |
| Shots Against/Game | 28.0 | 30.5 |
| Powerplays/Game | 4.50 | 3.87 |
| Times SH/Game | 4.50 | 5.13 |
| Capitals Record |
16-8-2 | 20-8-3 |
| Capitals Pts/Game |
1.31 | 1.39 |
| Capitals Pts/Game Pace |
107 | 114 |
Simply put, Capitals win more games, against better opponents, by bigger margins with Tom Poti in the lineup. The difference in quality of opponents was significant enough that it drove me to crunch the numbers and find out how teams were performing against the Capitals relative to their overall season performance. The comparison, for games without Poti in the lineup:
| Season Total | Versus Capitals | Difference (raw) | Difference (percent) | |
| Record | 640-592-165 | 10-14-2 | - | - |
| Win Pct | 51.7 | 42.3 | -9.4 | -18.2 |
| GF/Game | 2.84 | 2.62 | -.22 | -7.7 |
| GA/Game | 2.95 | 2.85 | -.10 | -3.4 |
| Powerplay | 17.5% | 20.5% | 3.0 | 17.1 |
| Penalty Kill | 78.6% | 81.5% | 2.9 | 3.7 |
And for games with Poti in the lineup:
| Season Total | Versus Capitals | Difference (raw) | Difference (percent) | |
| Record | 861-675-210 | 11-20-0 |
- | - |
| Win Pct | 55.3 | 35.5 | -19.8 | -35.8 |
| GF/Game | 2.80 |
2.97 | .17 | 6.1 |
| GA/Game | 2.73 |
3.71 | .98 |
35.9 |
| Powerplay | 18.0% |
19.5% |
1.5 |
8.3 |
| Penalty Kill | 80.9% |
78.6% |
-2.3 |
-2.8 |
Finally, to wrap things up, here's how the Capitals' opposition has deviated from their season averages, by percentage, playing against the Caps with and without Tom Poti in the lineup:
| Without Poti | With Poti | |
| Win Pct | -18.2 | -35.8 |
| GF/Game | -7.7 | 6.1 |
| GA/Game | -3.4 | 35.9 |
| Powerplay | 17.1 | 8.3 |
| Penalty Kill | 3.7 | -2.8 |
Now, any statistician or economist worth his salt will tell you that correlation does not necessarily equal causation, and that is of course the case here. As result it's hard to say anything definitive about Poti's impact on the Capitals lineup, but that doesn't mean we can't say what the numbers suggest: without Tom Poti in the lineup, the Capitals are a good team. With him in the lineup, they are simply dominant.
[Ed. note: Because of all the number crunching that had to be done for this post, team statistics are current through February 16th. Additionally, for the purposes of this discussion winning percentage is defnined as the number of standings points a team accumulated divided by the number of possible standings points.]
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Without even looking at the numbers…yes.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Feb 18, 2009 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tom Poti’s importance to this team cannot be overstated. He’s more valuable than Ovechkin.
OK, so my hypothesis that Poti’s importance couldn’t be overstated is clearly wrong. Still, he’s critical to this team’s long-term success.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No wonder Bruce is such a big Poti fan
the guy is a presence and brings a sense of calm purpose to the PK. Without him we always looked like we were out there slapping and slashing around in our own zone hoping the puck would somehow make its way across the Blue Line.
With Poti, its more purpose-driven: block the lanes, dig the corners, tip the pass and clear the puck cleanly to the far zone. Rinse. Repeat as many times as necessary until Semin gets out of the box.
Poti plays with smart hockey sense…. however, when it gets to be a Morrison Power Play 5-on-3 situation, then I think the defense (what’s left of it) revolves around Gordon and Steckel. Those guys are beasts out there when its 5 or 6 on 3.
by Wisper on Feb 18, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree. I think Poti may just be the smartest player on the team (or perhaps second to Fedorov).
by David M. Getz on Feb 18, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. Second to Feds
I mean Feds came back to play defense for the first time in his life pretty much on the basis of “He’s smarter then everyone else out there. He’ll figure out how to stop them.” And he did.
I think Poti could be the example for young Alzner’s mode of play. Big and physical without being a bruiser or a fighter. Lots of ice time, particularly PK. Smart positional penalty-free hockey that is effective against virtually every opposing offense. Not afriad to take an occaisional shot or tip a sharp pass to an open forward.
KIing Karl could learn a lot from #3 and be a much better player for it.
by Wisper on Feb 18, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree Fedorov filled in very well on defense, but he played there in Columbus and Detroit a bit as well.
I also agree that Poti would be a great mentor for Alzner at this point.
by David M. Getz on Feb 18, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you go back to the beginning of the season and break it down incrementally through Poti’s injuries, the PK numbers with and without him are staggering. Bruce has made the point over and over how Poti is able to take that extra second to make the right play on the penalty kill as opposed to someone like a ShaMo who panics and shoots the puck over the glass. Poti is a classic example of why experience on defense counts more than just about any other positon on the ice. It’s also why having Alzner spend more time in Hershey is not a bad thing.
by b.orr4 on Feb 18, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also why every Hershey D-Man Du Jour
was paired with Poti whenever possible.
Watch and learn young grasshopper(s).
by Wisper on Feb 18, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d love to see what Alzner would do were he paired with Poti. It was great that Alzner boosted Jurcina’s play but at 20 years old and less than a year of pro experience, Alzner needs to be in a situation where he can be the weaker defenseman in the pairing, not a situation where he’s expected to raise his partner’s play.
by David M. Getz on Feb 18, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 Alzner’s play may have suffered a lot more from that responsibility than from driving back and forth to Hershey.
by b.orr4 on Feb 18, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No question.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like to know if Alzner used to play goalie because every time i see him on the PK he’s taking the angle on the puck and doing crazy save moves.
Unfortunately that gives the goalie rebounds to worry about instead of the shot and it’s resulted in goals a few times.
Having Poti back has given me that sense of, “ahh yes, we’ll kill this – don’t worry.”
by zephyr on Feb 18, 2009 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
great post, DMG
it drove me to crunch the numbers
you are…data maven
by bigonetimer on Feb 18, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’s a much nicer term than the one that I was using last night: “obsessive geek”.
by David M. Getz on Feb 18, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know why Poti gets such a hard time from the New York fans and some media?
I know he spent time with both teams up there, but I’ve loved his play for the Caps since he arrived…..just curious as to the reason for the level of malcontent up in NYC towards him. They seem especially fired up when he comes back.
by Cluster on Feb 18, 2009 1:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Because he used to be not good, basically. NYR-Poti is pretty different from EDM-Poti, and both of those are wildly different from NYI/WAS-Poti.
Most of them are just too stupid to realize players improve.
by brs03 on Feb 18, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s a case of a highly-touted guy that disappointed them and moved to another team. New York sports fans hold a grudge like none other (ok, like Philly’s). I witnessed them lustily booing Wade Redden and Scott Gomez at the Caps/Rags game last week. Also, to Rangers fans, he was an Islander. To Islander fans, he was a Ranger. He can’t win. It’s not all that different from the way Caps fans heckle especially unsatisfying former Caps.
by grapejoos on Feb 18, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of that
Am I the only guy here who boo’s Nick Boynton everytime he touches the puck…man do I hate that guy.
by wittcap79 on Feb 18, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of them are just too stupid to realize players improve.
+1
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(That said, there’s nothing wrong with booing a guy who was crap when you had him – Sergei Gonchar is a MUCH better player now than he was with the Caps, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be razzed for turning the puck over to Marty Straka in the playoffs… ugh)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t agree – Gonchar was a stud when he was with the Caps, too. As a devoted fan, you remember the mistakes made when he was on your team, but don’t think that Gonchar doesn’t still occassionally make costly mistakes.
Please don’t tell me that you were on of the idiots that “Whoop whooped” Larry Murphy when he played for the Caps.
by Moonage Daydream on Feb 18, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, no.
But Sergei Gonchar was not a complete player when he was here. Offensively, yes, he was a stud. But I’m saying that much like Poti, Gonch was a talented offensive player prone to making mistakes early in his career, but also much like Poti he has become a very solid all-around blueliner as he has gotten older.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sounds like another promising young Dman on the roster…
by bigonetimer on Feb 18, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gonchar was kind of the poor man’s Green when he was in DC. Wicked slapshot, but nowhere near the same wheels (even though he is a good skater for a defenseman). Still, that backdoor play for Gonchar on the PP was money in the bank for awhile.
by grapejoos on Feb 18, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gonch is much better now.
Gonch was good then. It’s just that he’s improved quite a lot since. It’s something to remember as we think about Mo and Juice and even Green. 25-year-old defensemen just aren’t fully baked yet.
by Gould Old Days on Feb 18, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
25-year-old defensemen just aren’t fully baked yet.
Except, perhaps, for Mike Green at that Metallica concert.
by grapejoos on Feb 18, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DMG – well done with the # crunching.
by vt caps fan on Feb 18, 2009 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
…all the more reason I’m not regretting my Poti sweater purchase.
by bugula on Feb 18, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
One other note worth considering here: At $3.5M/annum, Tom Poti is a bargain.
by TylerG on Feb 18, 2009 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No question.
Based on everything said here, the title should be:
Tom Poti: The Key To (a lot more than) The Kill?!!
by Sct112 on Feb 18, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Be happy we didn’t go with “The Caps PK: Now Poti-riffic!”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please go with that.
How the HELL does Shaone Morrisonn keep getting a sweater?
by Whiter Mage on Feb 18, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or...
Caps PK Just Needs a Little Poti Training
by Scott in Shaw on Feb 18, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ooooh… that’s nice.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 18, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn, we missed a lot of good opportunities, didn’t we JP?
by David M. Getz on Feb 19, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
70 | 47 | 14 | 9 | 103 |
|
Atlanta
|
69 | 29 | 29 | 11 | 69 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
69 | 28 | 29 | 12 | 68 |
|
Florida
|
68 | 28 | 30 | 10 | 66 |
|
Carolina
|
69 | 28 | 33 | 8 | 64 |
(updated 3.18.2010 at 9:02 AM EDT)
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