Latest on Bouwmeester

by ChrisAm on Feb 15, 2009 2:03 PM EST

According to LeBrun, Bouwmeester has turned down a multi-year deal with the Panthers at $6.5M per and the Panthers are exploring trades with, among others, NJ and Philly. So the question is: should the Caps be in the mix and if so at what price? And does the analysis change if getting Bouwmeester will also prevent another Eastern Conference playoff team from getting him?

As a starting point, JP's boy in the Litterbox insists that Semin must be part of any deal to get Bouwmeester. That is too rich for my blood but there are certainly other options depending on how much of the future the Caps are willing to mortgage. My sense is that the Caps should stay out of it, even if Philly or NJ get him in the short term, because FLA will want too much. But what about a combination of Osala and CBo? How about any of the other forwards at Hershey? How much is too much?

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No way we send them Semin

unless they’re sending us more than just JBo in the deal. Semin can be a more dominant player, but regardless his contract situation is so much better than JBo’s so that’s not going to work.

Realistically, the Caps aren’t going to be in the race since we can’t give up as many roster players as some of the other suitors.

by brs03 on Feb 15, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions

Agreed. Bouwmeester’s almost sure to hit free agency and see what he can get on the open market rather than re-sign with any team that might trade for him. To give up someone as skilled as Semin, who’s already under contract and whose rights are controlled by the Capitals for several more years for a couple months of Bouwmeester would be a mistake.

Osala and Bouque doesn’t appeal to me either because those guys are both the kinds of guys good teams keep: Osala’s no sure thing but his combination of size and skill is very, very rare. Conversely, Bourque doesn’t have the same kind of high-end potential but he seems to pretty clearly ready to be a solid third/fourth line contributor in the NHL.

I’d have to respectfully disagree with the Litterbox Cats opinion that it’d take at least Semin. The Panthers aren’t dealing from a position of strength. They’ll almost certainly lose Bouwmeester if he goes to free agency so the issue of who makes the best offer is going to play just as big a role as whether or not it’s “fair value” for Bouwmeester. My guess is that, if they wanted to, the Capitals could top other teams without having to give up Semin.

Ultimately I could go either way on Bouwmeester. He’d be a hell of an addition but the team would have to clear out a lot of salary cap space to get him and I’m not sure they’d be that much better for it in the end.

by David Getz on Feb 15, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

Nnlnumbers.com tells me that the Caps have roughly a million in cap space. That would seem to be enough if the Caps got him near the end of February. I am also intrigued by JBo turning down $6.5M per year. Given Green’s performance and contract, JBo can’t reasonably expect to get that much, can he? Is $6.5 per not enough or not enough for him to stay in FLA? I think it is the latter, which would give the Caps a reasonable chance to resign him next year if he would take Mike Green money.

It also appears that NJ does have the Cap space for JBo. What would FLA require to trade him to NJ?

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Feb 15, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

KEEP IN MIND, FLOKS

That 6.5M he turned down was in the last week of July.

A lot has happened since then.

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Feb 15, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

FOLK too

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Feb 15, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

What’s happening to me???!!!

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Feb 15, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

The Capitals cap situation is such that they’ve been over the limit all year but granted exemptions due to players on LTIR. The simplest way to think of it is that their annualized salary commitments can’t top the NHL cap, not including guys on LTIR. Ergo, the team would have to clear a significant amount of cap space before they picked up J-Bo.

by David Getz on Feb 15, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

We’re gonna need a solid roster player, boyz. And I do mean solid.

Any deal is going to have to be right on the mark, given the Panthers will have no choice but to use it as a selling point in season ticket and advertising sales. A Luongo-for-Berto it will not be.

Prospects with no pro history aren’t going to cut it. Fickle market down here, which has no background in junior hockey. When in Rome…

However, given the current potential playoff run, holding Jay is probably the way to go, as a playoff appearance (yes…just an appearance) would go a long way toward achieving and likely surpassing the summer sales goal. If Bouwmeester walks, well, that’s the risk.

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Feb 15, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions

Caps should pass—we’re not the Yanks or the Sawx and have no capacity to “block” a deal to ;a rival. Bow master is a nice player, but he’s not worth the 6.5/per he’s been offered, and definitely not worth Semin. We are not a good trade partner for FLA

I could see Philly picking him up as a rental if the Cats fall out of it, and that would be very bad for everyone, but something tells me FLA will be there fighting for the 8th spot

by bigonetimer on Feb 15, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed- JBO to Philly would be bad but I don’t see how Philly has the space when Briere comes back. And who would the Flyers have to give up?

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Feb 15, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

No Lupul!

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Feb 15, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

How about Briere and some draft picks?

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Feb 15, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Let someone else overpay for that guy.

Russian Machine Never Breaks

by macvechkin on Feb 15, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

The biggest question for the Panthers is whether or not to hold Bouwmeester for the playoff run. If not, the team won’t be making demands like “prospects with no pro history won’t cut it” because it will be in their best interest to take whatever the best offer is, whether its prospects, picks, NHL players, or all of the above.

Of course, the fact that the Panthers could make the playoffs complicates things because there, for the time being, is an advantage to keeping Bouwmeester rather than flipping him for the best offer.

by David Getz on Feb 15, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

It has nothing to do with the Caps, but...

What about Gaborik for Bowmaster? They are both going to be UFA this summer so they can exchange each other’s contract risk. The only problem is that Bowmaster plays most of the time, and Gaborik doesn’t. What would MIN have to send with Gaborik to get Bowmaster? I assume MIN would make room on their already crowded blue line for a guy like Bowmaster. They could probably send at least one Dman with Gaborik back to FLA.

by Rob Parker on Feb 16, 2009 5:12 PM EST reply actions

Funny you should mention Gabby (the other one). I think Minnesota’s close to a point where they’d take anything they could get for him. There’s no way they could get a Hossa-like bounty, and to that end I’d think they’d have to move a lot with him to get Jay-Bo.

Gaborik has a physical the day before the trade deadline, and that’ll determine whether or not they’ll get anything for him, I’d think.

My question… what would the Caps have to give up to get one of the game’s best right wings (when healthy, of course)?

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by J.P. on Feb 16, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

(Of course, there’s little chance the Caps could clear the cap space for him, but assuming they could…)

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by J.P. on Feb 16, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

I feel like I saw a mention of this before – could the team trade for Gaborik, put him on LTIR, and play him in the playoffs? I’m not saying that such a move would be wise or anything, but based on my limited knowledge of the cap, it seems possible.

by grapejoos on Feb 16, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

any chance his hip/groin/whatever survives the VC ice?

by Rob Parker on Feb 16, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

I doubt it, and I don’t think this is worth it (unless the price is Giroux or something absurd like that). But I was intrigued by the concept at least when I saw it raised before.

by grapejoos on Feb 17, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

I'll confess to forwarding that folly

I have to say, I don’t think it’s for us now. And the VC ice comment is quite valid—how much confidence would he really have on our pond with TWO surgically reparied hips (he had the other hip done ‘zactly the same way two years ago). I’d love to have him for the push this year, but I think we have zero shot of signing him long term at the $ he is seeking, with Semin and Backstrom on the docket in the shorter term.

by bigonetimer on Feb 17, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

The only hope is one more year with him. Maybe he likes playing here (wide open offensive system with other skill players) and realizes his value took a huge hit this season. If that is the case he may be willing to pull a Hossa and resign for a one year deal at decent money in the hopes of rehabilitating his contract value. Even in this scenario his definition of “reasonable” may be too much for us to resign.

by Rob Parker on Feb 17, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

agreed.

It’s just one delicious subplot for this year’s deadline. My guess is he sticks with MIN and helps them get in to the playoffs, then walks (with or without a cane) away this summer…

by bigonetimer on Feb 17, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

Well any of our trade talks are predicated on moving Nyls and probably Shamo. That takes care of the cap space so we are free to dream about Gaborik OR Pronger. Pronger is the higher priority I would say but as for Gaborik here is how I see it. Just as much as MIN is in a bind over Gaborik, Gaborik is in a bind. He wants a huge payday, judging by the deals that he reportedly turned down and his general demeanor. He can’t get the payday he wants having missed almost all of this season. That brings his expected re-sign value back to earth, which does sweeten the pot for MIN a little bit. I agree that they won’t get a Hossa bounty but they won’t trade him without getting either a First round pick or an impact prospect. If he passes his physical I wouldn’t be totally adverse to sending a First round pick for him. As far as prospects, I have no idea how they value our prospects but considering their depth on D and lack of depth up front I suspect they’d be looking at the Rookie Line down in Hershey, most likely one of the wings. Would they try to unite the Bouchard bros. in one organization? Would we want to give up Francois? I really have very little clue about how MIN does business and values their players so it’s all speculation. My point is that we won’t have to move a ton to get Gaborik, but we will have to move something valuable.

by Rob Parker on Feb 16, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

I could see a few other teams more desperate than we are try and pull a rabbit out of the hat with a Gaborik trade…and overspending for a lot of risk and no security. The Rags come to mind, and maybe even PIT if they haven’t learned their lesson yet. Thankfully, we are in no such shape.

by bigonetimer on Feb 16, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

I agree that someone more desperate will try to land Gaborik (see below — I replied to JP without reading the other replies, doh!).

by Scott in Shaw on Feb 16, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions

It’s funny you mention a “Hossa-like bounty,” because I have a gut feeling Pittsburgh makes a run at Gaborik.

by Scott in Shaw on Feb 16, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

Pittsburgh makes sense but if you are saying that there will be a desperation market for Gaborik then how high is that going to get? Are the Pens going to make that mistake again? He obviously fills a need but what do they give up? If there is any kind of bidding war the price could get high quickly.

by Rob Parker on Feb 16, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

How much should we consider the Pothier factor?

It has to be a good sign that he took the trip with the team to Florida, taking practices.

But before I go any further, I say nada to Semin for Boumeester. Too much risk for my liking, and you never know what scorer might go cold in the playoffs and who will be there to pick up the slack.

So if Pothier comes back, how do you asses our trade assests in the D market? And the question is, will he make a Sundin comeback or a first-week Shanahan comeback? What’s worse is that he’s had more time off than both and neither of the two geezers suffered a concussion.

I don’t see how we can add the rugged defenseman we need without sending a D the other way or packaged in another trade. I have a feeling that it’s either Morrisonn or Jurcina, maybe both.

No matter what, hopefully it works out where we’re loaded when the salary cap doesn’t count — the playoffs.

by chockster on Feb 16, 2009 11:27 PM EST reply actions

If Pothier comes back, the team is going to have to make big changes to keep him on the active roster. My guess is that, in part because of that, he simply won’t be put on the roster this season. Another week or two (at least) of practices with the team and then, if he’s ready for game action, two weeks in Hershey on a rehab stint. If that happens and he has the all clear, I would guess the team would actually just put him on waivers and leave him in Hershey until the post season.

by David Getz on Feb 16, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions