FanPost

The Gift Of Health

 

Semyon Varlamov is expected back within the next few days, and as Coach Boudreau pointed out, the team will basically be at full health for the first time this year when he returns (unless someone else gets hurt in the meantime, knock on wood).  So how much damage could a healthy Caps squad do? 

I took the Caps' current stats through 37 games, divided by the number of games each player had played (see the % GP column), and then projected the stats out to a complete season.  (I used stats only for players who had played nine games or more -- sorry Boyd).  The assumption in this table is that each player will stay healthy and play the next 45 games.  Obviously, that can't happen -- there aren't enough roster spots to go around to let everyone who has contributed so far this season play in all of the next 45.  But if it was possible, and everyone matched their production so far over the rest of the year, here's how the end of season stats would look.

 

Player 

Pos 

% GP

GP 

+/- 

PIM 

PP 

SH 

Alex Ovechkin

L

78%

74

61

51

112

46

117

18

0

396

Nicklas Backstrom

C

100%

82

31

62

93

29

27

11

0

208

Alexander Semin

L

76%

73

37

44

81

26

57

10

0

292

Mike Green

D

97%

81

16

63

79

32

59

5

0

227

Tomas Fleischmann

C

70%

71

38

25

63

11

16

11

0

150

Brooks Laich

C

100%

82

22

38

60

4

35

13

0

226

Brendan Morrison

C

100%

82

22

33

55

33

49

7

0

122

Mike Knuble

R

68%

70

17

34

50

22

56

3

0

151

Eric Fehr

R

73%

72

21

27

48

29

27

3

0

139

Chris Clark

R

100%

82

9

24

33

-7

60

0

0

129

Keith Aucoin

R

24%

54

6

24

30

-12

0

0

0

24

Matt Bradley

R

95%

80

14

14

27

9

39

0

2

103

Mathieu Perreault

C

49%

63

7

18

25

14

14

0

0

81

Jeff Schultz

D

81%

75

3

20

23

40

30

0

0

48

Brian Pothier

D

76%

73

8

13

21

29

26

3

0

102

Karl Alzner

D

24%

54

0

18

18

6

24

0

0

48

Alexandre Giroux

L

24%

54

6

12

18

18

24

0

0

102

Tom Poti

D

84%

76

0

17

17

7

29

0

0

78

Tyler Sloan

D

57%

66

6

6

13

-3

44

0

0

53

Milan Jurcina

D

70%

71

0

11

11

0

33

0

0

82

Chris Bourque

L

54%

65

0

10

10

-13

33

0

0

65

David Steckel

L

100%

82

4

4

9

-4

9

2

0

109

John Erskine

D

65%

69

0

9

9

35

129

0

0

72

Shaone Morrisonn

D

73%

72

0

8

8

-8

72

0

0

29

Quintin Laing

L

54%

65

7

0

7

10

0

0

0

78

 

A few things stand out:

  • Ovechkin's PIMs -- if he keeps racking up the misconducts at his current rate, Colin Campbell will see that he doesn't play all of the next 45. 
  • More Fun With PIMs -- John Erskine has just about twice as many PIMs as anyone who hasn't won consecutive Harts.  For better or for worse, he is the team's enforcer.  Next it's ShaMo, who's having a brutal season all around.  After him, it's Chris Clark.  I'd actually like to see Clark's PIMs a little higher.  For many reasons, he'd be a better garbageman than Erskine.  Rounding out the 50+ club are three skills guys, Green, Semin and Knuble, each of whom need to stop taking so many penalties.  Green gets a bit of a pass from me because he plays 50% more minutes than the wings and because he plays such tough minutes.  But for Semin and Knuble, 55+ PIMs in about 70 games is way, way too high.
  • Flash's Goals And Shots -- I think this brings home how lucky Flash has been in a way that a bare shooting percentage number does not.  I actually think he could end the year north of 30 goals -- but he'll have to take more than 180 shots to get there.  His current projection of 150 shots ain't going to do it.
  • Offense from the Defense -- 79 points in 80 games from Mike Green:  Very Good.  91 points from your next 5 defensemen combined:  Not Good.  I don't have a problem with Jeff Schultz at 23 points.  I do have a problem with nobody else on the blue line finishing above him.  Poti, Pothier, and Juice particularly need to step up.  
  • Power Forwards -- 21 goals, 27 assists from Eric Fehr has to be seen as good year from him.  22 goals, 38 assists from Brooks Laich is probably what we should have expected from him.  17 goals, 34 assists from Knuble would be a mild disappointment -- particularly that goals total.  Let's hope Fehr and Laich keep it up, and that Knuble gets hot.
  • Matty P -- I love me some Perreault.  But if he played the next 45 games and ended the year with 25 points in 63 games, well, that wouldn't be so good.  For now, he's exactly where he needs to be.
  • Gettin' Paid -- Backstrom and Semin are having the years we expected from them.  Backstrom deserves a Toews-like contract.  Semin?  Well, he'll have to step it up even more if he wants a contract like Kane's.  I think 40 goals is a magic number for Semin going into the offseason.  Brendan Morrison has earned himself a bit of a raise, but not a huge one.  Meanwhile, the other UFAs are having poor-to-terrible seasons, statistically: Pothier, Morrisonn, Jurcina, Sloan, and especially Steckel.

And my apologies in advance to anyone who was waiting four more games to do a midseason breakdown with some of this info.

Edited:  Here's Chimera

Player 

Pos 

% GP

GP 

+/- 

PIM 

PP 

SH 

Jason Chimera

L

100%

82

17

19

36

-15

99

2

0

193

Chimera was already on pace to have one of his best seasons.  Let's see what he can do rocking the red.



If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

SB Nation Featured Video
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Japers' Rink

You must be a member of Japers' Rink to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Japers' Rink. You should read them.

Join Japers' Rink

You must be a member of Japers' Rink to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Japers' Rink. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker