Alex Ovechkin and the Caps' Power Play Problems
by J.P. on Dec 22, 2009 11:00 AM EST
182 comments
"Our power play was horrible." - Bruce Boudreau after his extra man unit went 0-for-4 with just one shot on goal in 7:47 of power play time Friday night in Vancouver
No one in the NHL had more power play points in 2008-09 than the Caps' Alex Ovechkin. No one in the League had more goals in 2007-08 with the man advantage than AO. In fact, no player has more power play goals since the lockout than the Caps' superstar, and only one player in NHL history has ever lit the lamp more on the power play in his first four seasons than has Ovechkin.
But Ovechkin seems to be struggling a bit on the power play this season, with just six power play tallies in 28 games and a matching number of assists. A season ago, Ovechkin scored at a .58 power play points-per-game pace; this year he's down to .43.
To be sure, the Caps extra man unit keeps humming along, and is still fourth-best in the NHL despite going 0-for-8 over the weekend. But here's where it gets interesting: the power play is firing at a ridiculous 40.6% success rate in games Ovechkin didn't play and at just 17.9% when he's dressed. For those of you who are more visual learners, here's what that looks like graphically, with the darkened sections representing games Ovechkin has missed:
So what's behind these counter-intuitive trends? Well, for one thing, in the eight games that Ovechkin has missed, the Caps have faced the League's 14th-, 25th-, 25th-, 29th-, 11th-, 14th-, 25th- and 26th-rated penalty kills. In those five games against the teams in the bottom fifth of the League in penalty killing, the Caps went 11-for-27 (40.7%), including a 4-for-6 stat-padder in Philly. Then again, in the three games against the 11th-ranked Wild and 14th-ranked Devils, the Caps power play clicked at 40% (2-for-5), so no real drop off in that tiny sample.
What isn't happening (despite what your eyes may be telling you) is that the team shoots more without Ovechkin and gets too pass happy when he's there. To be sure, that happens at times, but the team is averaging 2.02 shots for every two minutes of power play time without Ovechkin and 1.98 with AO.
It's easy to theorize and explain away the six- and two-game hot streaks that occurred in Ovechkin's absence from the lineup (the team stepped up, they saw some pretty poor opponents, the sample size is small, they were less predictable, etc.), and it would be a tremendous stretch to say that the Caps' are better off without Ovechkin when they've got a man (or two) advantage. But the more troubling fact is that with Alex Ovechkin in the lineup, the Caps' power play has been average... and with the amount of talent it has, average isn't close to good enough.
For more on the Caps' recent power play struggles, check out today's Washington Post.
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Exactly, at one point against Edmonton I saw Sasha pass up a good look at the net in an attempt to feed Ovie. I think I said something to the effect of, “dammit Sasha, worry more about the shot than feeding your buddy for his hattie.”
I think they got that message later in the 5 on 3 when the Ovie-Staios battle royale went down.
But yeah, those boys can all bomb the puck. Let that rubber fly!
by BradleyFightingVehicle on Dec 22, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
What I see is that with Ovie gone the team feels a need to make shots and try to do things on their own rather than rely on Ovie to make things happen. When Ovie’s in they try to feed him the puck or hope for him to make things happen and Ovie tries to feed his team mates so most of the time it turns into a game of keep away rather than put the puck in the net.
fancy passes are ok to a degree…. it needs to be less “make sure Ovie always touches the puck” though. they need to learn how to use him a decoy a bit more.
Problem is most of the time the fancy passes are to set up one of the Alexes, especially Ovi in the slot. When he’s open I’m fine with that, but all too often they try to force it.
A man gotta have a code
They do.
Here’s one where they don’t, though – it’s the first goal in this highlight, and man is it pretty. Give me more of that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CLjpLjZedc
Unleash the Alex!
I’m not disagreeing, but the shots on goal are the same with and without Alex. Ths shots in goal, however, are not.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Are you one of those guys that yells SHOOT!! during the power play? ;)
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I can vouch for this – the lack of yelling at the game, anyhow. What YNC does in front of her teevee is all on her and her pinkies.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
I never knew your were female. Total mind blower.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Nope. I get YvonLabresMoustache and Your Nation’s Capital mixed up a lot though. Both start with Y, both contain three words, both are possessive.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think re-reading whatever post turned into a celebration of beefcake with icing should answer any lingering questions about which posters are Rabbits.
Fun fact: A popular opinion can still be stupid.
I actually remember that thread and I think I might have been in it at some step of the way. I still have no idea how that started though.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
There was one Rat and a bunch of Rabbits who happened to be on on a slow night at the Rink, and the pic of Alex Ovechkin and a girl wearing nothing but bubbles got posted. It went downhill from there.
Unleash the Alex!
Hmm. I remember that and I definitely commented on the picture, yet somehow I’m still confused. I guess I’ll have to check the archives.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW, I added my gender to my profile after that night.
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Dec 22, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
I do too, and I’m YvonLabresMoustache. I should change my name to GeoffCourtnallsLimo
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think that belongs to GaryLeemansWife.
Or was Leeman banging Iafrate’s wife? I get that confused.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think it was Iafrate nailing Scott Hartnell’s wife.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 22, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think they were all having sex with Gary Leeman.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
TheyWereAllinLoveWithDyin’TheyWereDoin’ItinTexas
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
by D'ohboy on Dec 22, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow… all these years I thought it was “in love with Diane” not “in love with dying.” Second total mind blower of this thread.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that too, when I first heard the song, BUT:
If they were all in love with Diane, wouldn’t they be doing HER in Texas?
Anyhoo, it’s dyin’.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
I thought “it” may have referred to the aforementioned knife taking, bullet catching, traffic arguing, football player raping, virus catching, etc.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
I thought this exact same thing when I read the above post. Weird.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Thank you all for the lovely ear worm. It’s just what I wanted for Xmas.
I could have been equipment manager, but nooooo!
I’m very thankful for the earworm. I’ve had Cartman singing Pokerface stuck in my head since Saturday.
Fun fact: A popular opinion can still be stupid.
Styx
Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii’m saiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiling awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
domo arigato
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
If you’re gonna go the limo incident route, might I suggest NickKypreosBucketOfChicken?
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
DinoCiccarellisAutoEroticAsphyxiation
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking DinoCiccarellisBathrobe
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Or in true 89-90 Caps style…
DinoCiccarellisBustedKnee
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Are we still talking Motorcycles here?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Dec 22, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Japers’ Rink > Washington Post on this issue. This is why we read the Rink. Teh awesome.
by TylerG on Dec 22, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Seems to me from the limited sample we have seen that everybody on the power play defers to Ovechkin instead of taking a shot for themselves. So the defense is and the goalie is essentially waiting for Ovie to take his shot. When Ovie is not on the power play the shot can come from anwyhere.
I think this has a lot to do with it, and I thought Morrison was doing an excellent job of moving/distributing the puck when he was at the PP point. I don’t love having a forward on the point for the PP, but he was great in that role. Of course, if he’s on the top PP unit, you either have to forego Knuble/Laich up front or sit a young gun. If they stopped trying to feed every shot to Ovie, everyone would score more.
I’d personally like to see PP1 be this:
Ovechkin – Backstrom – Knuble/Laich
Morrison – Green
You’re right; Mo is a good mover from the point, and I think he’s less watched/guarded than AO, too, certainly. That keeps their pressure on AO closer to the net and keeps Green a little freer to bomb/finesse-wrister away. It allows AO to be a hash-marks shooter, and it allows Knuble/Laich to get to the bakery.
I think one of the big things is really that they’ve figured out how to guard AO well enough on the point that he needs to be moved aroud to throw off other teams’ PK planning.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
DP’s alignment might anger a particular lobby that seems to like to take such snubs personally.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 22, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That lobby doesn’t like it when people are crass, classless, crude, and similar words that start with C.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Ah ha. Right with you.
That alignment is, after all, tantamount to saying that a certain someone is a horrible hockey player.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Nice use of “tantamount.”
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Well, who would you and DP like on your second PP unit? There’s quite a bit of other talent that was left out besides Semin.
So, we have Semin, Flash, Fehr, either Knuble or Laich (whoever isn’t on the first unit). That’s a fair amount of talent.
In any case, putting Ovi at the point for the entire 2 minutes is counter productive. Sure, Ovi can do the point sometimes. But him and Green playing all 2 minutes of every PP results in diminishing returns (and tired players).
Rocking the Red since 1975
Ideally, my first two PPs are thus:
8-19-22/21
52-9
’nuff said.
28-85-22/21
2/14-55
This line is the most like the 1st, and almost as strong. 85 never got much PP time, but I think he would’ve been perfect for it. You’ve got the other of 22/21 to crash the net, and you’ve got either Potsy or Flash taking shots from the point while Schultz is solid.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
There’s one problem with this, and it comes back to an argument I’ve had a lot with one of my friends regarding forwards manning the points on the PP – the reason you put Ovie, or any other elite forward, on the PP point is to maximize their potential PP ice time. Ovie can skate all 2 mins of a PP as a defenseman, but not so much as a forward.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
The threat of his shot from the point also forces forwards to respect it, pulling them up higher in the zone and leaving better numbers down low for the Caps in a way that the threat of BMo’s shot does not.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Pothier, to an extent. Poti not at all, IMO.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 22, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
wasn’t 3 brought here to QB the….nevermind.
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Dec 22, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem is that everyone expects AO to shoot, incl. the rest of his team. It would be more difficult to predict with AO elsewhere on the ice.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
It would also be nice to actually see a backdoor play work this year. Have they even gotten a single one on the PP to either Green or Ovie?
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
One thing I’ve never understood with BB’s PP is the fact that he tends to NOT put guys on their off-side to set up potential one-timers.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
Which guys are you talking about? AO is always on his off-side, and Green’s most dangerous play is the back-door cut. That means he’s better on his strong-side. Even disregarding Green’s penchant for back-door tomfoolery, BB can only put one of Green/AO on their off-side. Semin and Baxter often start on their off-sides down low, but in any good PP your forwards are moving around so much that they’ll sometimes be off-side and sometimes be on-side. So where’s the beef?
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 22, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
I’d prefer Green to be on his off-side and matched up with someone of opposite-handedness. I hear what you’re saying about the backdoor cut, but the lack of an available one-timer allows the guy covering Green to back way off of him – negating his speed and, hence, his backdoor cut.
If Green’s on his offside, he can threaten the one-timer, forcing the man covering him to be a step or two closer. Unless Green walks the line toward center ice, he almost never shoots from the point – he’s become ridiculously predictable in this regard, and it’s part of the reason that his backdoor play isn’t open anymore – opposing PKs can cover it with little to no tradeoff.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
Agreed mostly, but our whole PP has become predictable regardless of Green being on or off-side. I don’t think Green is the typical “bombs from the point” guy. It’s like when ANA uses Niedermayer on the PP. They put him in a position to use his skating and smarts to make plays, and Pronger or Getzlaf was at the point bombs away. I’m hoping Carlson can be the bomb from the point next year, but for now we are seemingly going to have to live with AO back there. I absolutely hate AO on the point because that’s the easiest way to contain him. You know where he’ll be, you can pinch him into a corner of the zone, and he’s not sharking around the offensive zone preying on loose pucks and open passing lanes.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 22, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
And he’s not great at keeping pucks in the zone.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I’d disagree on this. I think one of Ovie’s great strengths on the point is his ability to use his speed, hand-eye coordination and wanton disregard for his own safety to keep pucks in.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
I disagree. He frequently gives up on clearing attempts due to what looks like exhaustion. He’ll stop one in amazing fashion once every couple of games though, no doubt.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Along these lines, I think he is good at keeping the puck in early in the PP. But when BB keeps him out there for the full 2 minutes because apparently there is not enough depth for two solid units, he starts looking tired and making mistakes and the puck starts leaving the zone.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Dec 23, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
in any good PP your forwards are moving around so much that they’ll sometimes be off-side and sometimes be on-side.
This is the fundamental problem to me. Forwards aren’t moving enough, and that’s why it’s predictable. I think this PP could succeed with Ovi at point and it could succeed with Ovi down lower, but it won’t succeed if the forwards don’t move their feet.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
It won’t succeed if the other team doesn’t see them as threats to shoot. AO is the designated shooter, and everyone in the world knows it.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
I think one problem is that Green’s shot doesn’t seem to be as deadly accurate so far this season. Teams seem to be a little less afraid of 52 on the power play, so maybe that’s closing down some of the room Ovechkin had before?
this makes a ton of sense, yet teams are more cognizant of the 52 backdoor that has been so deadly, and are taking that away a bit more now. Our rotation on the PP seems so static right now and teams are finding the patterns easier to defend.
If I had a crack at a changeup for PP1, I would try something like this (and maybe they have and I haven’t seen it): Put 8 and 22 down low and move Backstrom, a leftie, up to the point across from Green, and Jizz in the high slot, and let 8-19-28 work 3 on 2 in the left offensive zone. This may open up the “side door” for Green to rotate down to (or Knuble to rotate up to) on the right. Just spitballin’.
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Dec 22, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that the PP has been a bit predictable when everyone’s there.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’d like to see more emphasis put on the PP2. Give them more talent (even if it waters down PP1 a bit) and give them more than 40 seconds out of 120. It doesn’t have to be even, but it should be closer to even.
You’ve got 2 full minutes, and the goal counts just as much whether you score it in 13 seconds or 113 seconds. And I think both PP units would be more effective if they gave different looks. My number one change would be to separate Backstrom and Semin — the two most creative playmaking forwards on the PP.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
One more thing, I’d like to see the PP2 unit out there to start some power plays. That’ll generate some matchup problems, especially at home where the adversary basically has to put his PK1 out to start with. And I’d love to see what PP1 can do if the aggressors get a line change but the defenders can’t get off.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
What isn’t happening (despite what your eyes may be telling you) is that the team shoots more without Ovechkin and gets too pass happy when he’s there.
BtN Corsi statistics on the power play (min 10 GP and 30 seconds TOI/60)
Ovechkin’s Corsi on ice: 95.14 and off ice: 55.84. By far the biggest drop off of any of the regulars on the PP. In fact, the Corsi rating when he is off the ice is the lowest of all. So while the shots on goal stats do not show a large difference in his absence, the Corsi stats do.
Interesting. I’m thinking it’s because Corsi includes shots that are merely directed at the net as opposed to ones that actually reach the net, and on the PP, shooters are more likely to have their shots blocked.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions
Right – the guys aren’t putting as many shots towards the cage when Alex isn’t on the ice. And yet, they’ve been much more successful without him there. So it’s about quality and not quantity, it’d seem (perfect example being Saturday night’s 5-on-3 in which AO pumped at least three shots into Edmonton defensemen – good for Corsi, bad for SOG and, of course, scoring).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
but good for Steve Staios’ folk hero status.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
he was QLaing-like. Most impressive absence of fear.
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Dec 22, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Speaking of blocked shots, blocked shots against / 60 when Poti is on the ice: 31.6 (highest) and when he is off the ice: 19.9 (lowest). I posit that Tom Poti is the root of all poor scoring opportunities on the power play. It’s all Poti’s fault.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Damn you, Poti!
Fun fact: A popular opinion can still be stupid.
by RedBirdie on Dec 22, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In the eight games that Ovechkin has missed, the Caps have faced the League’s 14th-, 25th-, 25th-, 29th-, 11th-, 14th-, 25th- and 26th-rated penalty kills.
It may also be worth pointing out that the Caps were the beneficiaries of seven and nine minute power plays against Florida and Philly, which may skew the stats a little bit.
This is true. As JP and others have noted the smaple size is a bit small. However, even BB gets driven crazy sometimes by the passing and focus on setting up Ovi.
I still would like him to not play the point most of the time. I think playing him further down into the zone uses his passing abilities better as well. Thoughts?
A man gotta have a code
I tend to agree. I liked BMo on the point. Ovi seems to do really well on the half-wall, too.
I think what it comes down to is that the team needs to move their feet more as a unit, be harder to track down and more shifty. I wonder if not starting out with Ovi on the PP – adding him in the middle – might give it a slightly different look for the PKers. (Just a muse, have not seriously examined that.)
Unleash the Alex!
I think what it comes down to is that the team needs to move their feet more as a unit
This to me is also part of the equation. It’s about making the PK guys/goalie work harder and not give them clues to where the puck is going to come from. Right now I assume the puck is going to come from the point or slot areas. When Ovi was out it seemed like they had more success with back door plays because guys were skating without the puck.
A man gotta have a code
Maybe Ovie going hard for one minute of PP time would be better than him staying out the full two minutes.
by Stormblue on Dec 22, 2009 12:25 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
it’s not ideal, but I really don’t mind it. AO and Green are both capable of it, and it’s definitely not the fact that they’re tired is what’s bringing down the PP.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
It’s more Yoshietree’s point (SH breaks) and the fact that I think the Caps could put out a 2nd PP blueline of BMo/Pothier that might outproduce the 2nd minute of Ovie/Green. It’s more a replacement value and minutes management thing for me.
Granted, AO and Green haven’t been producing much lately, but I don’t see Potsy/Mo doing much more than corralling pucks from going out of the zone.
The real problem seems to be the Fs getting distracted/pressured and being forced into bad passes or giveaways, which are the general cause of the SH breaks.
Green will also make a doozy of a pass every now and then, but I don’t think it’s because he’s tired – them’s a fancypants move that backfir’d.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I can only remember good things happening when either BMo or Pothier were playing the point on the PP, but I probably only remember the specific plays because something good happened. Put it to you this way, I liked the way BMo was QB’ing the PP when he was playing the point, and Pothier seems to be a guy capable of doing the same and making good passes.
You could be right about the SH breaks – I am not a coach by any means. I just have a hard time seeing why it makes sense to leave guys out the entire 2 minutes on the PP, even if it doesn’t result in SH breaks (or breaks as the penalty expires). I don’t think the Caps’ PP% would take a significant hit if they used 2 different 5 man PP units more.
The real problem seems to be the Fs getting distracted/pressured and being forced into bad passes or giveaways, which are the general cause of the SH breaks.
Really? I seem to remember more of the breaks being due to cross ice passes (point to point).
Cross ice passes are because the Fs aren’t getting open and into good position. Basically, it’s a problem when Green has the puck and has nowhere else to go with it except the far boards and the puck has nearly 85 feet to get intercepted. Our PP Fs have not been good lately about creating chances.
Off topic, but I really despise Laich trying his “wrap-around” technique. That should never not be a backdoor pass to Green/Ovechkin.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 22, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
I hate that shit especially when he calls for it.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 22, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
The graph could be clearer...
It doesn’t really showcase how dramatically the PP increased productivity when Ovie was out of the lineup. Because the Y-axis is YTD PP% the graph itself loses alot of it’s meaning because your “shaded area” represents time when Ovie is out of the lineup, yet the value of that number still includes games in which he has played.
While the derivative of this graph would give you a much better idea of how his absence/presence affects the PP, there’s still probably a better way to do it. YTD muddles it up.
Not to nitpick or anything. Nothing but love for the Rink.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Dec 22, 2009 12:46 PM EST reply actions
“the power play is firing at a ridiculous 40.6% success rate in games Ovechkin didn’t play and at just 17.9% when he’s dressed.”
What more do you need?
The graph shows that the team’s YTD PP% has gone through at least two significant downward stretches with AO, and two major upswings with him out. That was the point.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The article was great, as is most of what comes out of the Rink. The YTD graph was just a weird choice for a guy that’s been in and out. The longer this graph goes, the less it means. Maybe a line graph that starts with the team’s PP%, then when Ovie is out, the value changes to the PP% sans Ovie, then back and forth again. So you see get the progression and the actual numbers for when he is in and out of the lineup. That was a bit confusing. I’ll throw it together in a few maybe.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Dec 22, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
I hear what you’re saying. I’m just saying that it served my purpose as is, i.e. it showed the relative impact of what occured when he was in and out of the lineup.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
For sure. Just constructive comments.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Dec 22, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Right. I’ve been thinking about this one. The first derivative of the graph would just give you the rate of change in the PP%. It doesn’t really show the relative success of the power play unit. So the PP% dropping from, say, 35% to 30% is reflected the same in the first derivative graph as 15% to 10% over the same time period. However, the former shows a more successful PP unit. We want a way to measure Ovi’s impact on how successful the power play is, not how quickly the change occurs. I’m not sure how much the first derivative graph would reveal.
(Disclaimer: It’s been a while since I’ve had Calculus, so correct me if I’m being inaccurate here.)
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
that made my brain hurt, I haven’t taken a math class or really used much of any of that kind of math since 1997
Hockey analysis with a dash of Calculus: Only at Japers’ Rink.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Math is math wherever you go. I’ve used basic trigonometry at the Dungeons and Dragons table. :)
Unleash the Alex!
My money’s on the emoticon.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 22, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Very simple. If I need to shoot an arrow to the top of a tree, the tree is X height and I’m Y distance from it, what’s my modifier to hit?
Unleash the Alex!
I for one...
would like to be Carlos the Dwarf
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
F&G gets auto-rec!
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Emo Bunny Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Dec 22, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Best show ever.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
As much as I love AD, F and G only lasted like 12 episodes, and each one was brilliant.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Never seen F&G. Can’t imagine it’s as good as AD, but I’m willing to check it out.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
Apples and oranges really. They’re both wildly different shows.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 22, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yup.
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Emo Bunny Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Dec 22, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
-2 for the partial cover penalty to modify the hit – so if you were previously looking at, say, a +7, it’d then be a +5.
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Depends on the height of the subject, too and how much cover the thing’s actually got. Partial cover’s a good point – but It’s -1 for every 70 ft,. in the case of a short bow (composite is better, I think, but not by much). So if I take a -1 for range and a -2 for partial cover, it’d be -3. One wonders, though, if anybody in the party has better range than I do at that point :)
Unleash the Alex!
Very simple. If I need to shoot an arrow to the top of a tree, the tree is X height and I’m Y distance from it, what’s my modifier to hit?
Does calculating a hypotenuse really count as trig? No sine, no cosine, no tangent?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it depends on how you get that hypotenuse. The Pythagorean theorem is just so useful and generally available that we don’t explore other ways to get there, but given other parameters we can definitely calculate the hypotenuse via trig functions.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 22, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
but that’d be dumb.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Win.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 22, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I have no problem with Trig, up until calculus math made enough sense that I didn’t need to memorize hardly anything, since once I understood something it seemed obvious, Calculus was more work, and I am lazy, therefore i stopped taking math after that.
My problem with Trig is that she still won’t release the hospital records that supposedly confirm… wait, no, sorry.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 22, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
just about anywhere else on the web that post would have ignited one of the greatest flame wars in the history of mankind
Doesn’t faze us. Honduran politics, though…
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Dec 22, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Yep. So, now we can bring on the math terms. Refer to “turning points” as points of inflection. And refer to the “glass as half empty” as the midpoint of a function where the amount of liquid in the glass is decreasing (i.e. the first derivative is negative) and “glass as half full” as the midpoint of a function where the amount of liquid in the glass is increasing (i.e. the first derivative is positive). Of course, we need more data points than the half way point to determine whether the glass is half empty or half full.
Rocking the Red since 1975
While the derivative of this graph would give you a much better idea of how his absence/presence affects the PP, there’s still probably a better way to do it. YTD muddles it up.
Can’t agree about the derivative. It’s not really a continuous curve, so it doesn’t make much sense to talk about the derivative.
You could use game by game PP%, but there would be a heck of a lot of noise. So you might want to go to something like a rolling 5 game PP% average, just to even out some of the noise. But honestly, YTD gets the point across just fine. YTD PP% slopes upward when he’s out and it slopes downward when he’s in. As JP said, what more do you need?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 22, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
There’s no formula. I don’t get what you’d take the derivative of. It’s just data.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 23, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
My bigger concern with this team is how bad they are 5 on 3. Not just this year, but ever since Bruce took over. My eyes tell me we are one of the worst teams in the league 5 on 3. The way the team plays, I wish for a rule that would allow the head coach the decision to run penalties serial or parallel. (also wish the coach could choose PP vs Penalty Shot…)
To open up chances, you have to create space. Creating space starts with crisp, clean and QUICK passing to get the defenders off balance. If you have the puck for more than a mississippi you’ve had it for too long. For me, it’s not more shots, it’s better passing to open up shots that get to the net. Final component, 21 or 22 (or 16) with their asses in the goalie’s face.
What better time to practice this than our next 2 games, against teams that we can’t afford to squander PP chances.
Totally with you on coaches getting to choose PP vs Penalty Shot. Really wanted that the other night @ VAN.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
Especially when the infraction is in NO WAY deserving of a PS, yet 4 on 4 hockey is much more beneficial and the RIGHT CALL in that situation.
The opposing announcers were quick to happily agree with that specific penalty shot – pointing out it was probably better for them than negating their power play. But life goes one really…
I’m kind of curious as to the breakdown of shot-taking percentage when Ovi is on the pp versus when he is not.
Even when he doesn’t get it on net he shoots a lot. I bet prioritizing being ready to block Ovi shots is an effective use of time/resources on the PK when he’s out there.
Sorry ladies
If I see Brooks Laich slap his stick on the ice calling for the puck on the PP one more time I’m going to metaphorically stab that fucker in the eyes. Does he not know what he’s out there for? Earth to Brooks: you are not the skill on that unit; hang out by the net until the skill gets the puck down there then dig like hell for the rebound. I’m sick of watching him call for the puck only to freaking blow it.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 22, 2009 3:05 PM EST reply actions
I think its funny that you felt compelled to apologize to the womenfolk before offering a legitimate criticism of Laich’s recent play.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
You damn well know my apology was tongue in cheek.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 22, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
I’m sure one of us ladies would be happy to deliver that message.
Fun fact: A popular opinion can still be stupid.
Tell him he’s forgetting where the bread comes from. And resist any mention of buns or (stud)muffins.
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Dec 22, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
I would like to see BB limit the PP ice time of 8 and 52. Give them 1:15 or so, then move on to the 2nd unit.
I do like where Ovie is lined up right now. He is available for the one timer off the faceoff, and with the umbrella setup, gets time on the half wall as well as the point. As long as they are using the umbrella with Green at the top, I think Ovie should stay where he is.
Old school Caps power play right at the beginning of the video. Can it be that it was all so simple then?
Then you can enjoy a look back at baby Lars.
ALEX, FЯEE
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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