Ovi's 3rd period productivity

by fnralch on Dec 14, 2009 6:01 PM EST

During the last game in Toronto, either Locker or Beninati mentioned that AO does not score much in the 3rd period. Indeed, only 2 of his 21 goals, that is, less than 10%, were scored in the last 20 min. And this is not because he shoots less -- of his 130 shots, 42 (32%) were made in the 3rd, compared to 40 in the 1st and 48 in the 2nd. As a result of such disbalance between shooting and scoring, the percentage drops dramatically from 0.275 to 0.167 to 0.048(!!!).

Let's take a look at the top 10 goal scorers in the league (as of 12/14) and their scoring percentage and TOI:


                         GP  G     1st   2nd   3rd   Av.SHFT    TOI/G   H/G

Marian Gaborik      NYR  29  22   .125  .237  .310   0:50.4     22:12   0.5
Alex Ovechkin       WAS  25  21   .275  .167  .048   1:04.5     21:19   2.7
Dany Heatley        SAN  34  21   .146  .300  .176   0:47.8     20:20   0.9
Patrick Marleau     SAN  34  20   .192  .209  .150   0:46.2     21:23   1.0
Sidney Crosby       PIT  32  20   .179  .174  .158   0:57.6     22:04   0.9
Dustin Penner       EDM  32  18   .129  .219  .194   0:47.7     19:56   0.8
Michael Cammalleri  MON  33  17   .190  .174  .111   0:48.0     19:29   0.3
Steven Stamkos      TAM  32  17   .125  .212  .182   0:46.9     19:32   0.9
Jarome Iginla       CGY  32  17   .194  .156  .161   0:50.8     20:48   1.0
Ilya Kovalchuk      ATL  24  17   .318  .107  .188   1:08.9     21:41   0.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average                                              0:52.9     20:52

Obviously, no other top-10 scorer has such sharp drop in percentage as Ovi, and only Kovi has longer average shifts. Ovi's shift is almost 12 seconds longer than the average in this table, and this does not feel good. The TOI/G seems not too high for #8 but this stats includes two games when Ovi was ejected. Excluding those games, his TOI/G is 22:43 which becomes the highest in this list. Another component inevitably adding to the fatigue is Ovi's high percentage of slap shots that require more physical effort than any other shot (not that I am complaining about it too much). His ratio of the scored slap shots to the wrist shots is 1.00, while it is 0.67 for Kovi, 0.33 for Marleau and only 0.18 for Gaborik.

Crossing my fingers in hope that the Russian machine never ~~breaks~~ gets tired in the 3rd...

UPDATE: Hits added...

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wonder if this has anything to do with the extra muscle he has put on this year? I want to say, well If memory serves correctly, the third period was his strongest last year. Need to see if I can pull any numbers…

Promote the game, it's the NHL, not SCHL

by kurlNdrag on Dec 14, 2009 8:09 PM EST reply actions

You’re right. Last year percentage: 0.120, 0.128, 0.191.

by fnralch on Dec 14, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions

I think it probably has to do with the team being up after two instead of trying to play catch-up like they did a lot last season. It’s not as important that he scores 3 goals in the final frame.

Hockey players aren't like other people. Witt after being hit by a car:
I’m okay. No big deal...I’ve got to go play some hockey. I’m a hockey player.

by zephyr on Dec 14, 2009 11:13 PM EST reply actions

Hmm, doesn’t seem so. Percentages of leading after the 2nd: 45% this season, 46% last season.

by fnralch on Dec 15, 2009 6:01 AM EST up reply actions

Does quality of shots differ between the periods?

(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)

by oldemystix on Dec 14, 2009 11:50 PM EST reply actions

Interesting

but not statistically significant. That third period number is a product of the “loosening up” that the Caps have done in the third period as a team thus far this season, more than Ovie getting tired.

Alexander Ovechkin fatiguing throughout the course of a single hockey game…does not compute.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Dec 15, 2009 4:08 PM EST reply actions

He’s always taken long shifts, so I don’t know why that’d be new. I also wonder what his shift length looks like if you take out the regular 2 minute PP shifts.

You're the reason that I hate Nova Scotia.

by Rob Parker on Dec 15, 2009 5:02 PM EST reply actions

Long shifts is just one of the components. I also added the HITS column: as you can see, he’s hitting three times more than the average. Altogether it gives a picture of an extremely physical game (not that we’re not aware of that) that just cannot make him feel better in the 3rd.

by fnralch on Dec 15, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

But he’s always played like that. It didn’t affect him the last 4 years, why now?

You're the reason that I hate Nova Scotia.

by Rob Parker on Dec 16, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

Well, not really. Under Hanlon’s rule, his TOI/G was 53.6 (2005-6) and 53.0 (2006-7). Under BB, its 1:05 and 1:05. The hits per game also increase: 2.1, 2.2, 2.7, 3.1. Could it be an accumulated fatigue? Hell knows…but something is clearly happening in the 3rd…

by fnralch on Dec 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Well he has been playing at less than 100%…

I probably am not the only one who has experienced that while you can skate with strained knee ligaments/the supporting muscles must work harder to compensate.

Playing injured affects performance and stamina. Even if this isn’t the case, positioned where the Caps are they shouldn’t be finding themselves in situations where Ovi should be logging crazy minutes every game/in the 3rd in particular.

by Icebat on Dec 16, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

Hanlon also used two PP units, IIRC. I’d bet if you took the PP shifts out his average shift length was about the same, but good data nonetheless.

You're the reason that I hate Nova Scotia.

by Rob Parker on Dec 17, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

what’s H/G?

hits per goal?

by Brainumbc on Dec 21, 2009 8:53 AM EST reply actions

Haha. Hits per game.

by fnralch on Dec 21, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

Crosby has 0.9 hits per game???!?!?!

I guess the count falling down and taking a dive as a “hit”. Because you’re hitting the ice

by Brainumbc on Dec 21, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

lol… hits per goal would be an interesting stat too :)

by Brainumbc on Dec 21, 2009 10:50 AM EST reply actions

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