Leveling the Playing Field
by David M. Getz on Nov 24, 2009 3:15 PM EST
77 comments
It's in the nature of just about every sports fan to analyze their favorite team. The problem is that the data to do so is oftentimes incomplete, unreliable, or just not there. Defense in hockey, for example, is notoriously difficult to measure. Point production is at least in part a factor of who a player plays with and against. Save percentage is a decent measure of goaltender performance - but a goalie playing behind a bad team's going to have a hard time putting up the same kind of numbers as a goalie playing behind a defensive juggernaut.
One way to try and compare data is to normalize it - to do whatever you can to make it so the players on a level playing field, so you can compare apples to apples. That's the logic behind a lot of what Gabriel Desjardins at Behind the Net does: sure Nicklas Backstrom has more goals than Eric Fehr, but given the disparity in playing time, power play time, and strength of teammates, is that disparity as big as the raw numbers make it seem? Does it exist at all? By turning ice time and goals in to goals per minute, you can get a little bit closer to the answer.
The problem is that when you do that, the numbers lose some of their relate-ability. When you say Alexander Ovechkin's 56 goals were an incredible achievement, people are right there with you. When you tell them he scored 1.57 goals per sixty minutes of five-on-five play they might assume it's impressive since it's Alexander Ovechkin, but they don't relate to it in the same way.
With that in mind, we've decided to normalize individual player scoring data and convert it in to run-of-the-mill statistics by assigning everyone on the team the same amount of "ice time". We decided to go ahead with 18 minutes a night, since that's more or less what a player who gets regular ice time but isn't a top line or top pairing guy gets. Each player is assumed to play 14:12 of even strength ice time and 1:57 of power play ice time per game i"in order to roughly correspond with how much time the player would get based on the amount of time the Capitals have spent in each situation so far this season. We also assume each player get 1:51 of penalty kill time, although this doesn't factor in to point totals since the team doesn't have any shorthanded goals. The method isn't perfect - it doesn't account for quality of competition or teammates, and obviously some players are hurt by the fact that in reality they play so rarely on the the power play. Still, it's an interesting exercise to see the effect of. standardizing ice time does on total production
Or, in other words, if everyone got the same ice time and scored at their current rates, what would their stats look like?
So what've we got?
- Mike Knuble was in large part brought in to help the team's power play, but he's tied for seventh in power play points among forwards and doing most of his damage at even strength.
- Shaone Morrisonn makes $1.975 million, is tied for the worst GAON/60 on the team, and has done nothing offensively despite playing most shift with Mike Green. If the Capitals want to free up cap space and are tired of waiting on Michael Nylander, I have a suggestion for them...
- David Steckel...oof.
- Matt Bradley's more productive at even strength than Tomas Fleischmann. Take it for what it's worth (hint: not much).
- At even strength Mathieu Perreault is outproducing Nicklas Backstrom, and Brendan Morrison and has been equal to Tomas Fleichmann and Brooks Laich. Très bien. Now how 'bout some power play time for the kid?
- Jeff Schultz has been the team's third most productive defenseman. As much as I like Sarge, that's not good. Maybe instead of pining for that "big, crease-clearing" defenseman we should be hoping that Caps find away to get another puck mover on their roster. Or that Tom Poti starts bringing the kind of offense he's capable of. Either/or.
- Eric Fehr is third in even strength goals and twelfth in even strength ice time per game.
- Chris Clark has as many or more power play points per minute as Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas, Backstrom, Mike Green, Brendan Morrison, Mike Knuble, or Brooks Laich, raise your hand. Maybe we can cut him a little slack in terms of raw numbers?
What jumps out at you? Who might deserve a few more minutes each night to showcase what they can do? Just as importantly, whose numbers do you really think are indicative of their talent, and whose numbers aren't telling the whole story?
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Perreault, baby! Give that kid a cookie… and get him on a line with Ovechkin one game and lets see what he can really do.
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’d be scary! And a good way to compare skating styles directly, too. I swear, Perreault skates just like Ovechkin!!!
by IRockTheRed on Nov 24, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He does, doesn’t he? At one point I wasn’t paying close attention, and when I looked up at the TV, I thought I was watching Ovechkin barrelling down the ice. But something didn’t look right, and then I realized it was Perreault.
by gfcaps fan on Nov 24, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s “Mini Me” to Ovechkin, and his number should read “8.5” instead of 85. :-)
by IRockTheRed on Nov 24, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the exact same things… sometimes I’m like “yeaaa there’s ovie.” and then after the dude falls down about 10 times I’m like.. Oh.. its Perreault.
He skates like ovie.. and looks and sounds like Fleury with long hair. We have the best of both teams!
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How lucky are we? The only team with Ovie and Pocket Ovie. The Caps have 1.5 Ovechkins.
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 24, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Pocket Ovie
And we may well be on our way to a nickname.
by mechanicsville on Nov 24, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like MP as much as anyone, but does anyone else feel like AO comparisons are setting the bar a little high? (Not to mention AO is a scorer and MP is a passer.)
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 24, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I got 90% through the exact same thought and decided not to post it.. I’m all for him succeeding but he’s played 10 NHL games.
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
by Sct112 on Nov 24, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We can dream while we wait for Knuble to heal up, Backstrom to wake up and Sasha to grow up.
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 24, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dreaming, no problem. Calling him Wee Ovie… not so much.
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
by Sct112 on Nov 24, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We’re talking more about the way he skates he LOOKS like Ovi. I don’t think anyone is really trying to compare talent.
But I gotta give MP his credit. He’s a slippery little fucker. It suprises me how he manages to keep control of the puck in the corners. I think his small stature actually gives him a little advantage. Everytime I think he’s about to get pounded he does but gets away because he always drops his center of gravity so much.
If the enemy’s defense ever catches on too much to the whole Backstrom-Ovi dynamic, I think they should pull the switcheroo mid game. Let’s secretly replace Timmy’s Backstrom with a Perreault flavored poptart and see if he notices.
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
MP is definitely slippery and he thrives with the post-lockout rules. He still takes more contact than I’d like to see but when you can’t just pin him against the boards he’s going to get away. I agree his size can be an advantage in tight spaces because he just picks the puck loose and is gone. I think he honestly would thrive with AO, but he hasn’t earned that yet. AO is better when he isn’t the puck carrier. He finds open ice and when you get him the puck he finishes. MP creates open ice and somehow gets the puck to open players. I suspect we’ll see it at some point but I hope it’s not soon because that means injuries or serious slumping.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 24, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True he probably hasn’t earned it..but there are just some times you need to pull some unexpected shit just to confuse the opponent. Even if just for a few shifts.
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When I saw this list and saw Perreault with 18 points, I thought it was a typo. I mean, I have watched him, he always seems to do something, but it hadn’t hit me until now how good the kid’s played.
Familiar Rapports: Bald Pollack, F&B, Gould Old Days.
Lobbies: Osala, Perreault, Erskine, Pothier, Neuvirth, Flash.
Fan of: Mean Lars Backstrom, Line Mashing, Cake.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 25, 2009 8:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Call me the Donnie-Downer and prepare the spears—any comparisons to Ovie are premature. At the very least let’s wait until the Olympic break. I hope I am wrong, but when was the last time he played an NHL schedule? Day in, day out against the world’s best with little down time between games. Outstanding for two weeks, sure, but what is that rookie slump I keep hearing about? (Alzner anyone). I hope he stays playing at this high level for the rest of the season, but I’ll take a wait and see attitude and not be too dissapointed if there is a Freshman Slump.
by kcfatts on Nov 25, 2009 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ovie, Pocket Ovie, and Ovie-when-healthy-Ovie.
by red army line on Nov 25, 2009 8:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction...
“Eric Fehr is second in even strength goals and twelfth in
even strength ice time per game.”
Third in even strength goals:
- Ovechkin = 14
- Fleischmann = 8
- Fehr = 7
by IRockTheRed on Nov 24, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also, Perreault has been outproducing everyone except Ovechkin at even strength. Just further hits home the point.
This is of course assuming I read the chart correctly, and I’d like to think I did.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Nov 24, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup!
- Ovechkin = 20 ESP
- Perreault = 18 ESP
- Knuble = 20 ESP
As for kvetching about Knuble on the power play… he’s at least doing very well at even strength! Look at the positives here, folks!
by IRockTheRed on Nov 24, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
speaking of Perreault…
What’s the total number of games played ina season where they are cut off and no longer considered a rookie next season?
I keep see this kid getting up in the states next year on the nhl.com rookie page
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
25 in a single season or 25 in a career (a la someone who keeps getting called up from AHL for years but never stays?
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
25 in a single season or 6 (I think) in parts of any two previous seasons.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Nov 24, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
here’s the NHL.com page that JP posted during discussion on this very topic yesterday
by RedBirdie on Nov 24, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(reading the rules) Can’t be older than 26? WTF. If some 50 year old dude makes the team and his first year he happens to score 50 goals.. that sucker deserves a Calder Trophy and THEN some
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sergei Makarov came over from CSKA Moscow at age 30 and lit it up and won the Calder. That’s not really the purpose of the trophy so I’m ok with the age limit. It’s the other limiting language I have a problem with.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 24, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You have a problem with the # of games?
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a problem with the term “major professional league” and how it’s apparently applied. That definition would exclude almost every European player that contends for the Calder. But, as is the NHL’s wont, they have applied some cockamamie interpretation to that phrase; basically equating to “The NHL only.” Stupid.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 24, 2009 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea.. they should just make it subjective… as in let the voters decide on a year by year basis who should be eligible.
Yea.. they should just make it subjective… as in let the voters decide on a year by year basis who should be eligible.Although..it might muddy things up.
Yea.. they should just make it subjective… as in let the voters decide on a year by year basis who should be eligible.Although..it might muddy things up.Confusing shit. Maybe just set a rule that if you were ever paid more than 100k to play in another league,you can’t be a rookie
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They should make it objective and change “any major professional league” to “The NHL.” Subjectivity leads to the Canadian media voting that AO is ineligible because really he already had a couple pro seasons under his belt and Sid was a mere amateur (getting paid a quite healthy stipend, but they love to ignore that).
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 24, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It could be worse.. The NHL could be arguing whether or not receiving a free jacket from a store at the mall is considered compensation for play (cough cough lebron james cough cough).
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What jumps out at you?
What jumps out at me is that Flash leads the team with eight adjusted power play points. Pretty impressive given that he has only played 13 games this season. Not to mention that his TOI/60 on the PP is lower than that of the Young Guns + Laich.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 24, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think more than anything this just shows how awesome Ovechkin, Laich, MP, and Flash have been playing.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
by zephyr on Nov 24, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering...
but how tall is Perreault? He looks really short. Is he short, or is just my imagination? :)
Dallas Stars 4 Life: Stars Blogging From Hockeyville, Iowa
by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Nov 24, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Media guide sez 5’10", folks here who have met him say prolly not quite 5’9".
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 24, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here’s a pic of him with Brooks Laich and Brendan Morrison. (Click for a bigger picture)
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 24, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
both B.Mo and Perreault are 5’8"-5’9"
by RedBirdie on Nov 24, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Man… Morrison is lookin really old.. and when did Brooksie grow his hair that long?
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Brooksie would look better with longer hair. Close cropped hair just doesn’t do it for me. He does have those gorgeous blue eyes.
Guys on team with Best Eyes: Eric, Fehr, Brooksie, and Ovi.
by CapsFan75 on Nov 24, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
was trying to find a good old longer hair picture, and not doing so well at the moment, haha.
"No Brooks Laich, no win. Know Brooks Laich, know win."
by kellobellow on Nov 25, 2009 8:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
#needsmoreBackstrom.
That is all.
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 24, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
QualComp
Can you tell me how to read “Qual Comp”? Is a higher # better competion or worse competition?
by mechanicsville on Nov 24, 2009 4:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks. Promise not to divert the conversation any further after this…I was looking at the blueliners. Jurcina’s playing against the best competition of the group?! Or am I missing something?
by mechanicsville on Nov 24, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think you’re missing anything. I’ve used that stat arguing in favor of Juice before.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 24, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, there was a good explanation of QualComp and QualTeam at the BTN blog a while back. I’d give you the link, but it seems SBN search is down right now.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 24, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks. I’ll look for it, too.
by mechanicsville on Nov 24, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is the QualComp article and here is the QualTeam article.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 25, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks again, bud. I appreciate it.
by mechanicsville on Nov 25, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What it tells me is that Eric Fehr deserves to be playing on the top two lines a lot more than Chris Clark. Just once I’d like to see this kid get a decent shot with skilled linemates so we could finally see if he can cut it or not.
by b.orr4 on Nov 24, 2009 4:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Amen.
It also tells me that my gut feeling — that Morrisonn is the d-man I’d be least sad to lose — is supported by the stats.
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Nov 24, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Breaking news
BREAKING NEWS
Abe Pollin, longtime owner of the NBA’s Washington Wizards and NHL’s Washington Capitals, dies at 86.
by Dynamo38 on Nov 24, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Look at the bend in Mike Green’s stick in that photo. Too bad even with that torque the shot was probably a) blocked or b) not on net.
http://dclandingstrip.com/
by ninefttall on Nov 24, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Abe Pollin Dies
Know it doesn’t belong here but just thought I’d pass it on. Here’s the link
by b.orr4 on Nov 24, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Picking a nit – Ovie is listed with 16 goals, 8 assists and 22 points. That should sum to 24, no?
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 24, 2009 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
(Table error — Q’s G > his P)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 24, 2009 5:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Shaone Morrisonn point can’t be stressed enough. Green needs a solid partner. If that player is not currently on the roster, then that’s got to be priority #1.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 24, 2009 5:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
One that can skate and read the play exceptionally well. I wonder where we can find a guy like that …
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 24, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fully agreed.
C’mon Omsk!
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Nov 24, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
C’mon Omsk!
Lacking your normal emphasis.
by Cluster on Nov 24, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not just fom a value standpoint, but BMo and Brads have been studs at the quarter pole. Flash, too, since the return.
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Nov 24, 2009 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Where’s the stats for the number of tweets per game?
by Brainumbc on Nov 24, 2009 8:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
is that stick broken or just flexing? if its flexing, thats pretty cool
by twistedlogic on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Flexing. A slap shot basically works off the leverage in the stick.
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Nov 24, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More torque, please
I posted this in the Caps/Habs recap thread, but it’s relevant and worth posting again:
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 25, 2009 7:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really whippy stick, there. Opening a can of worms, but I far prefer a stiffer shaft for my hockey sticks. Maybe because I play defense, and would rather my stick not bend if pushed against another players.
Familiar Rapports: Bald Pollack, F&B, Gould Old Days.
Lobbies: Osala, Perreault, Erskine, Pothier, Neuvirth, Flash.
Fan of: Mean Lars Backstrom, Line Mashing, Cake.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 25, 2009 8:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brooks could make whatever flex stick look like that. Nothing is going to bend against players unless you playing with a tube of gelatin.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
by zephyr on Nov 25, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brooks could make titanium look like that.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 25, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love this picture. It might make a nice avatar.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 25, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It most certainly would… but your current one is better.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 25, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, I’m satisfied with mine. If some other Laich fan (who isn’t?) needed a fresh avatar though, this would be a good one. I actually considered using this image for my thanksgiving card. I was going to have him shooting a pie or a turkey, but I decided on a different one.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 25, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Every time I see a pic like this with a bent stick, it makes me want to urge someone to bring back that weekly Caps show they used to have last season with PROFESSOR BRADLEY.
Thank you Brads for explaining how the slap shot works and the physics of hitting the stick to the ice before it touches the puck.
by Brainumbc on Nov 25, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fresh Avatar
What a fine idea…thy will be done.
by mechanicsville on Nov 25, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
59 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 88 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
57 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 61 |
|
Atlanta
|
57 | 25 | 24 | 8 | 58 |
|
Florida
|
58 | 24 | 25 | 9 | 57 |
|
Carolina
|
58 | 21 | 30 | 7 | 49 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 4:15 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
