Speculating Semin's Worth
by CAPFan4Life on Nov 17, 2009 11:32 PM EST
18 comments
Deciding to kill some time and being the GM at heart that I am; I wanted to know potentially what Semin's Next Contract could be with the Capitals.
With the help of CapGeek.com i went through a lot of forwards who are currently making around 5-7 Million and in addition to there Salary's; I located current career stats and projected there Avg Points per year.
As we all can agree, Semin is a highly skilled player who can be the best or worst player on the ice on any given night. As many people have discussed his goal scoring and stick handling skills could rival Ovechkin's but his Injuries, Costly penalties, and lack of motivation have cost us games.
The List of players after the Jump:
| Player | Age | YR Signed CT | Yearly PT Proj. | TERM | Cap Hit/ Mil |
| Kristian Huselius | 31 | 2008 | 65Pts | 4yr/19 Mil | $4.75 |
| Patrick Marleau | 30 | 2008 | 70Pts | 2yr/12.6 Mil | $6.30 |
| Brian Gionta | 30 | 2009 | 60Pts | 5yr/25 Mil | $5.00 |
| Sedin twins | 29 | 2009 | 75Pts | 5yr/30.5 Mil | $6.10 |
| Mike Ribeiro | 29 | 2008 | 75Pts | 5yr/25 Mil | $5.00 |
| Martin Havlat | 28 | 2009 | 60Pts | 6yr/30 Mil | $5.00 |
| Mike Cammalleri | 27 | 2009 | 75Pts | 5yr/30 Mil | $6.00 |
| Jason Spezza | 26 | 2008 | 85Pts | 7yr/49 Mil | $7.00 |
| Jason Pominville | 26 | 2009 | 70Pts | 5yr/26.5 Mil | $5.30 |
| Mike Richards | 24 | 2008 | 70Pts | 12yr/69 Mil | $5.75 |
| Paul Stastny | 23 | 2009 | 70Pts | 5yr/33 Mil | $6.60 |
| Phil Kessel | 22 | 2009 | 60Pts | 5yr/27 Mil | $5.40 |
| Marian Gaborik/NYR* | 27 | 2009 | 70Pts | 5YR/37.5 mil | $7.50 |
*NYR'S GM doesn't understand the price value of players and has over paid certain players(At the time for gaborik but he is looking good currently) Examples: Gomez,Redden,Drury
I know a lot more goes into figuring out how much a player should or should not receive. There Age can be a factor and RFA counts for something. With his agent coming out and saying that he wasn't taking any discounts i was wondering what could possibly be Semin's Value? Even though his agent said this, Ovechkin(best bud) play's in washington and this should have some weight in the discussions.
Based on the player i would say he has an Avg around 65PTs per Season but trending UP if he could play more games per season. In no way should they even consider paying Semin Gaborik type money and I’m sure the team would trade him in a second if he even thinks he is worth that much. Semin i believe, compares the most with Pominville, Ribeiro, Havlat, and Cammalleri.
Therefore i think the Caps should highly consider a contract in the neighborhood of 5yrs totaling 29Mil. Unlike Backstrom who will be given a long and lifetime contract like Ovechkin. You can not offer the same to Semin because having a 5 year contact is the perfect amount to keep him motivated and prevent serous long term injury problems for the team Ex: Rick Dipetro/NYI.
Anyways thats my take and fill free to discuss.
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I agree that 5 years is probably about right (anything in the 4-6 range I think works) but I’m not confident he’d sign for 5yrs/29mil. He’s younger than Cammalleri and I think he has much more upside if (big if) he can be more disciplined; I think if we wanted him for 5 years it’d look more like 32mil than 29. I’d also be comfortable with a 4 year deal totaling somewhere in the mid-20’s. As it has been discussed plenty on this site, I know I’m not alone in saying locking up Backstrom should be a much higher priority than Semin, and I think there’s a reasonable chance Semin will be asking more than we can afford to give him. I’d hate to see him go, but the priority has got to be Backstrom.
by EverettCase on Nov 18, 2009 12:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cammalleri’s age actually is a benefit and not a problem. He signed a 5yr/30Mil=6 per year as a UFA. Technically as a UFA one can achieve more money on the the free market than still being a RFA. Ex: Gaborik
Semin is a RFA and even though he has a much greater upside; Semin has yet to show and be able to score the amount of points that Mike has for the last 3 years. Therefore he should command less than Mike in this still weak economy.
by CAPFan4Life on Nov 18, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Should and what a team would be willing to throw at him are two completely different things. I’ve yet to see someone say that contracts are going to go down, and then teams don’t throw money at stars. Granted, your points are valid, I just have a hunch he’s going to get big offers, even if they may not be NHL GMs making them.
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by Whiter Mage on Nov 18, 2009 8:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point. We don’t get all those nice draft picks if our RFA gets signed away by the KHL rather than from an NHL team.
by HateOffSeason on Nov 18, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Feel like 5 years at less than 5.5 would be seen as an insult and we’d never hear from him or his agent again.
Looking at that list, I’d take Semin over 80% of it.
Him being an RFA is a benefit to us, not to him. If his goal is money (I’m not sure it is) then it is in his best interest to sign the shortest deal that would make him a UFA (sign the 1 year tender we’d offer). Still, my feelings on what he’s worth to the team all come down to how successful this season becomes.
Nicky: 8-9 years, 6.5-7
Semin: 4 years, 6 per.
everybody’s happy.
by FFSEnough on Nov 18, 2009 8:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Backstrom clearly should be are number one priority and did not suggest otherwise. I’m pretty sure GMGM is waiting on GM Stan Bowman from Chicago to sign Toews/Kane. Whatever Toews/Kane is signed to, shall be a good bet we can get Backy to sign to as well(looking to be at a discount to stay in Chicago).
by CAPFan4Life on Nov 18, 2009 12:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hi friend, perhaps you would feel better with an avatar. It’s fun, great to wear, and you don’t have to pay for anything in the champagne room if you have one.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 18, 2009 7:38 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
You don’t have to feel pressured into tossing up just any avatar just to satisfy the avatar police. Civil Disobedience!
Though, if someone can get me a picture of QL’s broken jaw, I’ll gladly make that my avatar.
by FFSEnough on Nov 18, 2009 8:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What, Matt Bradley’s crimson mask* ain’t good enough for you?
/Neat name for a fantasy hockey team
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 18, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Somebody’s a wrestling fan.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 18, 2009 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You go with what you know sometimes.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 18, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Emo Bunny Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Nov 18, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He even has balls in his chin.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
by zephyr on Nov 18, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Sedin twins are a pretty good bench mark….though I’d love to see Semin’s cap hit (if he’s still here) at around 5.25 million (pipe dream I know).
by Yoshietree on Nov 18, 2009 10:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Understand you said it was a pipe-dream, but on many teams in the NHL, Semin’s a #1 FWD. You’re not going to get that kind of player for 5.25 per.
I’m seeing a lot of similarities between our pending negotiations with Semin and Minn’s with Gabby last year.
by FFSEnough on Nov 18, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They only got that because of how long the term is. Semin won’t/shouldn’t get that term.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 18, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think four years (at 6.5 max) is just about right for 28…if the term is good enough for Toughlife, it’s good enough for Sasha.
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Nov 18, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Semin wants term, he should have a more front loaded contract. Say if he re-signs for 6 years $34 mil ($5.66 mil cap hit), he the first two years can have him paid 7 mil, and the remaining years has him paid $5 mil. Though he’s probably not going to get that kind of term, I’d say he’s in the $5.75-$6.5 mil range if he’s taking a shorter term (3-4 years)
Space Weed Says Telling it like it is without a care about the mainstream's feelings
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by Space Weed on Nov 21, 2009 8:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
59 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 88 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
57 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 61 |
|
Atlanta
|
57 | 25 | 24 | 8 | 58 |
|
Florida
|
58 | 24 | 25 | 9 | 57 |
|
Carolina
|
58 | 21 | 30 | 7 | 49 |
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