A Balanced Attack
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 1:00 PM EST
65 comments
"Secondary scoring" is one of those phrases that gets thrown around the hockey world a lot - yes, even right here - to determine and define what makes a deep team, offensively. It generally refers to whatever offense is produced by anyone other than the superstar(s), the top line, etc.
Still, secondary scoring is a somewhat blurred notion, hard to define based on the simple fact that what constitutes secondary scoring on one team is what passes for primary on another. For example, Mike Knuble has five goals on the year - the 6th highest total on the Capitals, it would be among the top three for a number of other teams.
Rather than this convoluted idea of secondary scoring, what teams are really looking for is balanced scoring - a balanced attack, with the offense distributed as evenly as possible throughout the lineup.
So how do the Caps stack up with the rest of the league?
For comparison's sake we'll look at the following: the total number of goals scored by each team (GF), the number of goals coming from the top 3 scorers (T3G), the % provided by the top 3 (% of Ttl), the number of multi-goal scorers (MGS) and the number of players contributing at least one goal (GS).**
**Totals through 11/15/09
* - teams currently in playoff contention
A couple of things of note:
- The Caps are right around the middle of the pack when it comes to balanced scoring.
- However, they also lead the league in goals scored (75), and are tied for third in both the number of multi-goal scorers (12) and the number of goal-scorers in general (18).
- The Predators have scored just eight more goals as a team than the number of goals produced by the Caps' top three goal-scorers.
- Under the header of "Numbers Can be Deceiving": the Hurricanes would appear to have the most balanced attack in the league...but check out their goal total.
- Under the header of "It's Exactly How it Looks": the Lightning are currently getting almost 64% of their offense from their top 3 scorers, providing 28 of the 44 total goals. All but three of those goals have come from just two players - Stamkos and Malone.
- The top two teams in the league, San Jose and New Jersey, are in the top ten when it comes to more offense from fewer players.
Of course, any discussion involving the Caps and balanced scoring right now has to take into account the fact that their most primary scorer, Alex Ovechkin, has been out for six of the twenty games so far. The Caps scored twenty-three goals during that stretch, with goals coming from eleven different players.
And that is pretty darn impressive.
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Our attack got a lot more balanced when Matty arrived. Go Matty!
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 17, 2009 1:04 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
i kinda want to toast to that all night. seems like a good drinking line.
by ns on Nov 17, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same. I was going to suggest saying that and drinking every time Ovechkin stepped on the ice…but I’m doing the recap tonight so I suppose I should be sober.
The rest of you, though, feel free!
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
um, drunken recap sounds like fun!
what better way to celebrate Ovie’s return and Bruce’s historic win?
by RedBirdie on Nov 17, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very true – okay, I’ll stock up on plenty of ‘wodka’…and just a smidge of Canadian Club for Bruce :)
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would pay cash money for a “wasted recap”. Be sure to post often in the game thread to chronicle your intake, so we can gauge for ourselves what state you’re in.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And if it helps, F&B will volunteer to get loaded at the same time, so you don’t feel awkward about it. He’s in school, he can afford to donate a few brain cells to the cause of humorous GDTs.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This sounds like my kind of party!
by DrinkingPartner on Nov 17, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hahaha. Normally I’m right on board but I may be a late arrival to the GDT today. I may have some stuff to do right around 7. Annoying.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll ice down the scotch for you ahead of time, in that case.
Or would you prefer a Zima? Perhaps a nice wine cooler for you?
Just let me know.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ever since K_C’s suggestion I’ve been going with Orange soda and Scotch, thanks.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pls do. even better if you follow up the next morning with the sober recap and reflect on your drunken thoughts
by ns on Nov 17, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They’re giving you another chance even after last game?
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know. Crazy, right? Pigeons learn faster than these boys, I swear.
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll see your toast and raise a glass to your avatar.
Budem zdorovy!
SO FЯIENDS, IS BATTLE NOW.
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 17, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Caps Offense is Ridiculous
They’re on pace to score over 300 goals. Only three teams have done that since the lockout, the Buffalo Sabres in 06-07 and the Red Wings and Senators, both in 05-06.
I’d say balance isn’t an issue, nor is any other offensive aspect of the game.
by Kolzilla on Nov 17, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And consider that the 300-goal pace has gotten 23 of those goals without Ovie – this team has some serious guns. We knew that already, of course, but something about seeing it in black and white, compared to other teams…yeah. scary.
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So based on this chart, the Caps should score about 12 goals tonight with Ovechkin back, right?
by b.orr4 on Nov 17, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fun with Stats
As sort of touched on – when the leading goal scorer in the league is out for a 3rd of the sample size you gotta figure that percentage from the top three scorers trends up a bit, easily eclipsing at least the two teams immediately above the Caps.
The Sharks with the 2nd highest goal total but the 4th highest percentage coming from the top three look to be ripe for another crash if someone hits a drought come playoff time.
by Icebat on Nov 17, 2009 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great analysis. But we need to keep in mind your last point, that part of the reason the Caps’ stats look so good is because Ovie is out. I’m sure if he had played every game so far, our “% of Ttl” would be much higher.
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Nov 17, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’s a good point – and on that note I went and checked, just for funsies.
Assuming that Ovechkin had continued at his goal/game pace, he’d be at 20 (!!) goals by now. That would bump the team total up to either 79 or 81, depending on which site’s goal total you use, which would put the top 3 at between 45 and 46 % of the team’s total goals. So right about where SJ is now.
Of course you could also make the assumption that with #8 in the lineup, he takes the top D pair focus away from Semin, giving him more room to potentially score more goals. Same w/ the other member of the trio in Laich, or someone like Flash…strictly conjecture of course.
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t show this to Dave Steckel.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 17, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Having really quickly added points per game to this, i get the following results:
The r-squared between Goals Scored and your calculated “% of total” is .024
The r-squared between Points Per Game and your calculated “% of total” is .035
We might include more years or remove the shootout “goals” to get slightly different results but basically, there is no statistical value to the “% Scored by Team’s Top 3.” Sorry to burst your bubble.
by Tromni on Nov 17, 2009 1:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 17, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
The day of rec’ining has arrived for you, mister.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
by winterion on Nov 17, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to burst your bubble, but shootout goals don’t count for team goals nor for player stats.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 17, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thought the team got 1 in the GF column by winning the SO? Completely hazy on this, so forgive my potential wild variance from the truth.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope. I checked and added it up – TSN says the Caps have scored 75 goals, and added up our players goals.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 17, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There you have it. Mark it down, this is the day I was completely wrong about a factual matter pertaining to hockey. You’re all shocked, I know.
I do appreciate the clarification, WM.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it’s worth, I thought that for a while, but checked it up just before posting. It kind of surprised me, to be honest.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 17, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, wait, lemme get this straight. If a guy scores twice during regulation, and then again in the shootout, that’s NOT an official hat trick?
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 10 recs
Rec’d him? It damn near killed him.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 17, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
rec’d for the lol that just escaped me.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 17, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Upon further review, I’m wrong. Caps website only adds up to 73. TSN’s numbers added up to 75…or so I thought. Counting is hard.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 17, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could be down to whether players are still on the roster. I’m noticing teams are short by very small numbers that definitely aren’t their shootout records.
Atlanta is 7-1 in the shootout this season, but only has 1 goal too few if you total up their players.
So I’d say you were right the first time. I made the same assumption as fat-daddyo when I made my comment
by Tromni on Nov 17, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would make sense. I beleive Aucoin has 2 goals while he was up, so that would add up to 75 if the 73 number was only players on the active roster.
A man gotta have a code
by CP2Devil on Nov 17, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know…I pulled numbers from hockey-reference.com just now and it included Aucoin, Giroux, etc. Came up with 73.
‘Tis a puzzlement, my dear friends! I think I’ll go back and look at each player’s game log later tonight to see what the total should be. So weird that it’s 2 different totals
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not, I recounted. I’m getting 73 across the board.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Nov 17, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I’m found the answer. Caps won 2 games in Shootout. I think that is where the 2 extra come from.
A man gotta have a code
by CP2Devil on Nov 17, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m 99% positive that a “team” goal is awarded for shoot out wins. Instead of listing games as 4-4 SO win they are listed as 5-4 win.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
by zephyr on Nov 17, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes. That is why I think there are 2 totals. I think the TSN one includes those “team goals” from SO wins.
A man gotta have a code
by CP2Devil on Nov 17, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crap. If that’s true, our “top 3 %” is a bit higher.
Then again I’m guessing other teams would also have a higher percentage, so it might even out…for example, I know the Devils have won a couple of shootouts, and I’m positive the Blue Jackets have as well.
Stats are fun, no?
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When your Top 3 have combined for 11 goals, you got trouble. In case anyone was wondering if the ’Canes have trouble, of course. Heh.
To Tromni, above: no one was saying that the stat had any predictive value, unless my reading of the post has failed completely. To start with, 14 of the teams listed above will not make the playoffs; at least 6 of them will make the playoffs with no realistic chance of advancing more than 1 round, if that. So OF COURSE there’s little predictive value in that sense. Some of those teams just aren’t very good. Some of them are decidedly mediocre.
If you are interested in advancing the statistical work already on the books, you might see how “balanced scoring” as defined above, intersects with some simple metrics that look to have predictive value, i.e., shot differential and goal differential. It would be worthwhile knowing if really good teams have an advantage to diffusing their scoring over a wider circle, rather than having a couple of studs.
No?
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Nov 17, 2009 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
But if it doesn’t have predictive value to points or goals, then it doesn’t bear actually worrying about? The Caps could lead the league, be average, or be dead last and it wouldn’t matter.
by Tromni on Nov 17, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it may not have predictive value but it’s interesting to see how teams distribute offense. And while it may not matter now, it could come into play later – say, for example, a team loses their top scorer to injury. How many would be able to recover?
It’s really just a “did you know” kind of post, gives us an idea of where we sit in terms of scoring throughout the lineup. It came up a few times in the secondary scoring post a few weeks ago and here it is. Take from it what you will!
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s awful hard to asses it’s predicative value because, as F&B mentions below, scoring distribution is one thing and overall offense is another and ergo a team that has one great line is going to be more unbalanced, yet better off, than a team with four bad lines.
That said, even if the data doesn’t have statistically predictive power I would say it’s fair to assume that balanced scoring > unbalanced scoring, even if that it self is secondary to high scoring > low scoring.
by David M. Getz on Nov 17, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s awful hard to asses it’s predicative
I’m sorry, but I laughed my ass off.
by DrinkingPartner on Nov 17, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I did want to say I agreed with your comment, though :-).
by DrinkingPartner on Nov 17, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We may be elite, but we still like to act like children on occasion.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m ashamed to say I’ve had a few too many of those moments recently.
by DrinkingPartner on Nov 17, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you’re right it didn’t claim predictive value. SJS and some of the other teams show that even if you have balanced team scoring, one dominant line can still make it look like you rely on only primary scoring. SJS has a bunch of multigoal scorers and almost everyone has a goal but they still look “unbalanced” because Thornton and Heatley have just been on a tear.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And in a brief moment of unrelated “oh by the way, before I forget” news:
I’ve decided Carlos LA is trying too hard to identify his slightly foreign writing style and consistent them with a hockey-loving Mexican on the West Coast as opposed to say a Russian on the East Coast.
by Icebat on Nov 17, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Balanced scoring takes on a new meaning with the Caps given the ice time AO gets. To what extent can a team have a balanced attack when someone like AO is on the team? One thing for certain is the Caps definitely have formidable secondary this year.
But Brawndo's got what plants crave. It's got electrolytes.
by hotdog88gt on Nov 17, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Very true. It would be interesting if someone could look at the “balanced” attack again while taking ice time into account – but I’m not that mathematically or statistically intelligent ;)
But yes, their secondary scoring – can we just call it non-Ovechkin scoring? – is certainly formidable. Nothing bad there.
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
certainly formidable
No doubt about that. Scoring ebbs and flows throughout a season, but when this roster is healthy and focused it is extremely potent. I dare say that we haven’t even seen the best of it yet.
A man gotta have a code
by CP2Devil on Nov 17, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
becca do you know the TOI of the Top 3 GS? I’m not mathematically inclined particularly – but would that T3GS per TOI v everybody else (with one goal or more) per TOI be the metric?
by Vinn on Nov 17, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Under the header of “It’s Exactly How it Looks”: the Lightning are currently getting almost 64% of their offense from their top 3 scorers, providing 28 of the 44 total goals. All but three of those goals have come from just two players – Stamkos and Malone.
And therein lies the reason why the Lightning will start to struggle as the season progresses. Game planning for three guys is a hell of a lot easier than 12.
by b.orr4 on Nov 17, 2009 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Except that it’s unlikely that Tanguay, Lecavalier, and St. Louis slump all year.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True. But it’s more likely that Malone falls back to earth, so it almost evens out. Almost.
…plus they have eleventy billion d-men and only about 2 legit NHLers among them.
by Becca H on Nov 17, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You mean you don’t like Vladimir Mihalik?
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 17, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, I wasn’t saying TBL is going to be a playoff team, just that they may not fall off the face of the earth.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 17, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just wait until Steckel gets through with them.
he’s gotta score a some point, right? RIGHT?
by RedBirdie on Nov 17, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
59 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 88 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
57 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 61 |
|
Atlanta
|
57 | 25 | 24 | 8 | 58 |
|
Florida
|
58 | 24 | 25 | 9 | 57 |
|
Carolina
|
58 | 21 | 30 | 7 | 49 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 9:00 AM EST)
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