A Tale of Two Goaltenders
by Becca H on Nov 16, 2009 3:30 PM EST
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Jose Theodore came into this season poised and ready to defend his #1 spot against pressing youngsters Semyon Varlamov and Hershey hot-hand Michal Neuvirth. His numbers through those first few weeks were sparkling, often the reason the Caps won or were even in games while some of his teammates phoned it in.
Halfway through November, however, the tables have turned - and Jose's numbers, once white hot, have cooled considerably. In his last six games, he's stopped 120 of 141 shots for a painful .851 save percentage, and his overall numbers have taken a hit:
As Theodore stumbles, it's Varlamov who is now making a statement. With just one regulation loss - in his entire NHL career so far - to his credit, Varlamov has steadily improved his numbers and regained a little of the form that saw him challenge for the top spot in the first place.
Still, it's not necessarily a done deal that Varlamov is taking over as the #1 guy. It's not guaranteed that Theodore has lost his starting spot.
...not yet at least.
Instead what we're starting to see in net for the Capitals is the development of a true goaltending tandem. When one guy falters, the other is there to pick up the slack - and when that happens, it pushes whomever is struggling to double his efforts to improve. It gives him motivation to get back in the saddle and reclaim his spot.
As of right now we've seen Theodore rebound from a disappointing end to last season with a hot start, only to falter slightly in recent weeks. On the flip side, Varlamov’s first postseason came to a somewhat shaky end and the season started the same way, but he’s slowly rebounded. The ups and downs are baked right in with these two.
Still, it's not a guarantee that either one reverts back to his early-season form - this discussion may become moot in April should Varlamov truly take the reins away from Theodore. And the discussion changes entirely if Michal Neuvirth throws his hat into the ring at some point, as well:
But young goaltenders are streaky. Theodore is notoriously inconsistent. Odds are that this is not the last time we visit the issue of who is the #1 goalie - and really, that's kind of the way it should be.
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Just FYI, Neuvirth’s SV% has him tied for 21st in the AHL. Not terrible but not outstanding either.
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Neuvirth had a rocky start coming back from injury, but is 5-0-0/1.60/.942 in November.
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From an outsider’s perspective, Varlamov does not inspire a whole lot of fear. There’s a notion that the book is out on him, and that he’s nowhere near as technically sound as Theodore.
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Varly is 6-1-0/2.09/.928 in his last 7 appearances. Guess not everyone’s reading the book.
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But this also goes back to my issue w/ celebrating “wins” for someone like…oh, Brodeur, for example. Wins are team stats, GAA and save % are individual. I set much more stock in the latter when talking about a goalie’s attributes.
I think GAA is somewhat in between wins and SV% on the “team/individual” spectrum. See Osgood, Chris.
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True. Still, that pretty win number Varly’s sporting is just as suspect as the loss column for Jose; there have been a few games this year that we won in spite of a poor showing by Varly, same as we’ve lost in spite of an excellent one by Theodore.
(And speaking of Osgood, Chris…see Cups, Stanley.)
Still, that pretty win number Varly’s sporting is just as suspect as the loss column for Jose
Right, but that 2.09 and that .928 are pretty damn impressive “individual” numbers as you’d call them.
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by J.P. on Nov 16, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They are – but (if you couldn’t tell), I’m wary of numbers sometimes because they don’t always paint the whole picture. His early numbers were abysmal despite the better win total while Theo’s were really good, and both have seen their numbers rise or drop due to their play lately.
Of course, I’m certainly not saying that Varly’s stats aren’t impressive or that Theo’s are, btw – or that Varly isn’t the better goalie right now.
Yeah, but what starts they were. Kind of stick in the mind…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 16, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
While a few high glove shots sneak by...
Athletically, Varly is far above Theo. Technical soundness comes with time and guidance: you cant teach athleticism – he’s as quick as a cat and is amazing moving side to side, aggressive in challenging shooters.
Foo on your outsider’s perspective.
he’s nowhere near as technically sound as Theodore.
Varlamov surely needs work on his technical ability, but to say that Theo is technically sound? I don’t think he ever was. I always thought Theo was more of a reflex/athleticism goalie. (Maybe that’s part of the condemnation of Varlamov.)
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
BS
Mr. Rothenberg, it appears you either havn’t been watching either goalie or know nothing of goalie technique. Both goalies are technically sound (entry into the NHL requires it), but Mr. Varlamov’s athleticism is tops in the NHL. It is totally laughable and highly ignorant to say that Varlamov is “nowhere near as technically sound as Theodore” seriously. Is that a joke?
Wow, lot of venom for outside opinions here, I think that’s a legit comment worthy of consideration and not scorn because it’s somewhat questioning of one of players… We certainly question our own here (see Semin, Alex), do we not have room for others to (constructively) do so as well?
Semin was the second gunman on the grassy knoll, clearly he must be traded.
by Chris meet Alex on Nov 16, 2009 4:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
Agreed. Previous comment was a bit much.
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by J.P. on Nov 16, 2009 4:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Both goalies are technically sound (entry into the NHL requires it)
I don’t think he ever said neither were technically sound. And, really, saying “entry into the NHL requires it” is kind of silly. When we say “Quintin Laing’s not a very good skater” or “Brendan Morrison doesn’t have a very hard shot”, we all know that we mean Laing’s not a very good skater by NHL standards even if he’s a better skater than 99% of us out there and that Morrison’s shot isn’t that hard compared his peers even though it’s harder than the vast majority of us would ever be able to shoot.
If you’re going to disagree with someone, provide a reasoned argument. Calling someone’s view “laughable and ignorant” and mocking them doesn’t make a case.
Might I kindly direct you to the Community Guidelines.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 16, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
While all NHL goalies need to be technically sound to some degree, Varlamov is in the lower ranks of technical soundness among NHL goalies. While he has improved on this recently, he is a very scrambly goalie that tends to overplay the puck and get himself out of position (fortunately he has the athleticism to get back to make the incredible save). While Theo is the same way at times, when he is playing well he is more technically sound than Varlamov. It is not at all laughable or ignorant to say that Varlamov needs to work on his technique: that’s been the book on him since before he came to North America.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 16, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
I think Varly has good technique. I don’t understand why he has this rap as a goalie with poor technique.
Almost every younger goalie in the NHL is going to have better technique than the goalies that are 34+ years old.
My biggest gripe with him technically has been his rebound control and that keeps improving. .
The only thing that is really working against him on a technical level is how far out he challenges. That’s something I’m sure he’s always tweaking in practice and he’ll find a comfortable go to level for his NHL game sooner than later.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
i think some of the “bad technique” refrain comes from dave prior’s scouting report given to corey at the Times:
“When we drafted them, in my opinion, Varlamov didn’t play the game as well as Neuvirth but was an incredible athletic talent,” Caps goaltending coach Dave Prior said. "He was extremely powerful, able to get places – just laterally if it was a pass or a rebound. So as long as he could learn how to play a better game, you knew he was very capable of being an outstanding goaltender. Neuvirth had very good athletic ability, but he played the game extremely well for his age – setting himself up to be a successful goaltender because he was so mature in his style. Now he’s maturing physically.
“So they’re both kind of converging on the same peak…. I sort of see them coming from two different directions, but both [are] on the path to being outstanding young goalies.”
by Natty Bumppo on Nov 17, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
"Three or More" Theodore
I think we’ve all discovered of late why Jose Theodore is called “Three or more” in Montreal and Colorado.
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Nov 16, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I hate that freakin’ name. Given to him by two fanbases that just before Theo came along were downright spoiled by some guy named Roy. And for a few years he was a god in Montreal…before they ran him out on a rail.
Picky bastards.
downright spoiled by some guy named Roy
We were spoiled by Olaf Kolzig for ten years too. I happen to like the “three or more” name, however. It’s quite funny.
"Alex Ovechkin makes Chad Johnson look like he's reading the paper."
Wow. I love Olie, but mark that down as the first time anyone ever compared him to Roy :P
But I get what you’re saying, although I’m not sure that it’s quite the same. We were spoiled by having a guy who we knew was going to be solid (and sometimes spectacular) every night for a very long time – excluding his last two or three years, of course.
I’d bench Theo for a time. He’s responded to that in the past. Being that it’s a contract year he might respond even better when he’s called back to duty this year.
I’m ready to relegate Theo to backup role at this point providing Varly doesn’t completely melt down. He’s never been anything better than mediocre since the lockout. His best save percentage since then was .910 in 2007-2008 (for context, Jonas Hiller currently has a .910 save percentage, good for 23rd in the NHL). He’s on pace this year to post his third sub .900 save percentage in five seasons.
Benching him, prodding him, motivating him…they’ve tried everything. He’s 33. In the words of Dennis Green, he is what we thought he was.
I reluctantly agree… Though I think you still take your lumps on some of his starts to make sure you don’t overwhelm Varly. I think you want to keep it closer to 50-50 than 90-10 until he’s got his feet fully under him and the coaching staff feels he’s totally ready… Which I don’t think they do.
Semin was the second gunman on the grassy knoll, clearly he must be traded.
by Chris meet Alex on Nov 16, 2009 4:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed. But JT60 needs to be a more active back up then most. Not that I think you have to keep the kid gloves on Varly all the time, but IMO its best for his development if he gets time off to really polish his glove/game…..
What seems to be happening is what I think many of us thought would happen this year – Theo starts off hot then falters, and Varly gets into a groove and ultimately becomes #1. I just wish it wasn’t happening so early in the season. I think Varly has showed a propensity to lose focus and get tired with extensive playing time game after game, and I wouldn’t have minded if the transition that may be taking place now occurred later in the season so Varly was fresher for the playoffs.
The bottom line, as I see it, is that yes, Varlamov is an exceptional athlete.
His high glove side is weak, and he is frequently out of position. This makes his saves look more spectacular than they should, because he has to jump halfway across the crease and turn himself into a pretzel after he let a huge rebound out.
The difference is, his athleticism saves his hide on occaasion.
And so does the post.
I am, however, in favor of a goalie tandem where one picks up for the other, while Varlamov continues to develop technique.
If the goal of this franchise is to win a Stanley Cup, then you have to be realistic and ask which of the two gives you the best chance to do that? Note that I didn’t say which one will or can win a Cup but which one gives the team the best chance. Right now, no matter how hard I try, I can’t see Theo winning four rounds of playoff hockey. I just don’t think he’s mentally capable of standing up to the two month battle it takes to make it to the Finals. Sadly, I don’t see Varly doing it either, but he’s still maturing as goalie and maybe by April he’ll have grown into that role. Theo is a known product and his history says he can’t do it. I’m just guessing, but I suspect Bruce feels the same way.
Did anybody thing Emery or Ward could have carried their teams to the finals?
Or Roloson?
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
To take Jordan’s comment a thought further….
reducing people walking through our D, and shot blocking helps more along the way. I see our Team D and our 2-6 D members as more the problem. We ask too much of our Goalies with the high risk high reward style we play. Look at Tim Thomas last night, that was run and gun hockey, apparently he can’t even hold up. Which in a very round about way tells me there probably isnt a goalie that can, so our D needs to be the focus rather than analyzing the tandem right now. The tandem can be looked at later. All goalies go through ups and downs, let’s look at a larger sample later.
Promote the game, it's the NHL, not SCHL
I would feel much better about Varly’s chances – especially if the D-Corps gets a shot from anticipated cap relief and GMGM can sign someone by the deadline.
Simeon was ONE game away from the ECF – and his d-men fell apart.
The kid is cool and collected, and rarely looks rattled, even when giving up pucks in bunches.
Well, his d-men fell apart but I’d say he kind of fell apart in that game as well. And if he’s giving up pucks in bunches it probably means he is rattled, even if we don’t see it.
But they need to play tighter in front of him, agreed; and help is never a bad thing, whether from inside or outside the organization.
So do you think the Caps should splash at the deadline? Some type of trade to bring maybe Giguere and Niedermayer over?
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
OOF
First off, if we didn’t sell the farm last year for Pronger I don’t see why we’d sell the farm this year. You can say we’d be getting two players, but we’ll also be paying for two. Then you have to address how we afford these guys. Even if Nyls leaves it would be tough. I’m all for getting Special Nieds, but Giggy can go somewhere else. Maybe if he was UFA after this year but another year at 6 mill? With two goalies that eventually need to settle the score and two young guns in need (want?) of new deals? It doesn’t make sense to me.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
It wasn’t a suggestion but a question to b.orr4.
If Theo probably can’t do it and he thinks Varly is a big “?” — should two key cogs be brought in instead of wasting another few seasons?
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
I know you weren’t really suggesting it, or asking me. I’m just strongly opposed to getting Giggy. I got into it with an ANA fan trying to explain why it’s such a bad fit. He suggested that if, for salary purposes, they had to “take someone of our hands” they would be “willing” to take Laich back.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Haha. He sounds like a used car salesman. A lot of teams would love to get Laich. One of my friends who is a Buffalo fan wants Laich there bad.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Yeah that’s exactly what it was like. Trying to convince me the Caps need Giggy when all logic says it’s a bad fit. ANA isn’t shedding salary to take an anchor back, and GMGM isn’t/can’t take Giggy without moving an anchor.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
sorry, I am sure that Luongo, Nabby, or Bryzgalov (sp?) maybe able to, but for a limited time…one would think.
Promote the game, it's the NHL, not SCHL
Interesting selection. Three of the best goalies in the league right now, and yet only one of them, Bryzgalov, has even “appeared” in the Finals – on the bench, backing up Giguere.
Though he did win that first playoff round when Giggy was still looking for his game.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Actually, wasn’t that the playoff series that Giggy was out for personal reasons? Not to diminish Bryz’s success in that first round, but as I recall there was no other choice…
I don’t remember the publicly stated reason he was out. The personal problems may have been the reason he was out but my point was more that Bryz has stepped up and carried a team through a tough series when called on.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Yeah, Giggy’s father died or something (not to make light of it, but I swear that guy has a personal emergency at least once a year). Bryz played well, but it was clear who the starter was when Giggy got back.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 17, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions
It was only “clear” because of who ANA chose to put in the net. It wasn’t “clear” based on their play. I maintain that Bryz did well and didn’t earn a benching; he just had a Conn Smythe winner behind him.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Surprising stat—Varlamov has not yet played a full game against a team currently in playoff position.
Almost certainly meaningless, but still strange.
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by Ben Rothenberg on Nov 17, 2009 12:28 AM EST reply actions
What does it mean?
“Absolutely Nothing!”
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 17, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
51 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 59 |
|
Washington
|
52 | 27 | 21 | 4 | 58 |
|
Winnipeg
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
51 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 51 |
|
Carolina
|
54 | 20 | 25 | 9 | 49 |
(updated 2.7.2012 at 3:17 AM EST)
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