Familiarity Breeds Good Defense
by Stephen Pepper on Nov 13, 2009 3:30 PM EST
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PrintWhile it looks like this brief stretch of the Washington Capitals season without Alex Ovechkin is nearing an end, one thing is for certain. This team can score goals regardless. Secondary scoring? With guys like Tyler Sloan and Mathieu Perreault lighting the lamp, this bunch is getting tertiary scoring.
But on the other side of the ledger, the Caps are now down to 23rd in the League in GA/G, at 3.06. Over three goals a game in this era is playing with fire -- Katy is not barring the door. And of the top eight Eastern Conference squads, the Caps have allowed the second-most even strength goals, with 39, just one fewer than the New York Rangers.
What's keeping the Caps flying high is scoring at a ridiculous pace, nearing four goals per game, a pace which at present exceeds even the 2006 Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes, in the first post-lockout season that saw a bit of a return to firewagon hockey. Consequently, Les Capitals sit atop the League in 5-on-5 F/A ratio.
We've hinted at one reason for poor team defense: the lack of consistent pairings, particularly beyond the top duo of Mike Green and Shaone Morrisonn, on account of having to rotate eight defensemen. And we'll repeat what GM George McPhee himself said, after the trade of Steve Eminger in June of 2008:
[W]e didn't want to carry eight defensemen again because it's too difficult for everyone to operate that way. It's hard for the head coach because you know you have someone sitting out, and someone is unhappy. And it's hard on the players.
The logjam has been alleviated from time to time due to minor injuries suffered by John Erskine, Green, and Jeff Schultz already in this campaign (and it looks like Milan Jurcina is unable to go tonight, shuffling the deck yet again). Sloan has done himself a huge favor, and possibility secured indefinitely his spot in the lineup, by gamely playing the "swingman."
But is there any correlation between consistency in the D pairings and a team's defensive performance? How consistent are the pairings on the top defensive teams in the League right now? And how inconsistent are those on the sieves of the NHL?
Turns out that four of the top five teams in GA/G -- New Jersey, Boston, San Jose, Colorado, and Buffalo -- have three regular pairs of defensemen that skate together for at least about 60% of the team's shifts at ES (for the pairs themselves and the breakdown, link on the percentage opposite the team name, all via DobberHockey):
Looking at the bottom five teams in GA/G -- Anaheim, Florida, Columbus, Carolina, and Toronto -- we see a slightly different picture. Four of these five teams have three regular pairs of defensemen that skate together for less than 53% of the team's shifts at ES:
Significant, or too early in the season to tell?
Is it the injuries that have led to the significant substitution by Bruce Boudreau and Bob Woods, or is it the presence of eight capable D-men in Washington that leads the coaching staff to be a bit more leaned toward resting guys who are less than 100%, sacrificing some consistency for better health down the road? That theoretical health benefit could prove enormous come playoff time, and as long as the Caps are making fans behind their opposing team's net break out the sunscreen, there's no urgency to trim the roster on the blue line at this stage of the season.
Putting the salary cup hit of the eight-man collective aside, of course.
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The injuries made the use of 8 roster D-men a good move in retrospect because it allows for a bit more rest from tweaked guys than you’d see otherwise. Maybe it’s also conscious because of where the top guy on this D may be in late February.
Still, great job as usual Pepper.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
I don’t know about the “retrospect” part. Maybe for some I guess. I still have no clue why people want to always have their team’s playoff roster set in October. You need depth because of injuries. They are going to happen. Certainly some years are worse than others, but you will need depth no matter what team you are. With the Caps cap situation they made the right roster moves.
DMG articulated, I believe it was a week or two ago, what I think is the major issue with this defense. You’ve got a fair number of guys playing more minutes than they probably should because we lack a great number 2 guy. I believe this problem will be solved one way or another by March. There are certainly other minor issues, including some forwards not supporting in their own zone consistently
A man gotta have a code
I have no problem with depth, but 8 defenseman?
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 13, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Gotta think this is another area of Nylanderian impact, no? I mean, if he’s gone, Alzner’s here and a couple of those guys probably aren’t, right?
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Alzner wasn’t one of the last guys sent down, though, was he? That suggests that other guys had a better camp, so maybe not.
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
He was absolutely one of the last guys sent down, and (contrary to Gabby’s Sloan fluffing) quite probably was sent down because he could be w/o clearing waivers.
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by J.P. on Nov 13, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Then I misremembered. My bad.
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
No worries. And it’s not to take anything away from what Sloan has contributed so far – his versatility, especially, has helped the team. But that gets back to the initial point that the team’s in a spot because of the cap situation.
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Oh, no doubt that they are and have been from the beginning. We’ll see what Nylander does – right now, he reminds me of another bald Swede – and go from there.
I keep wondering, though – we’ve seen flashes of what happens when the team locks down and plays consistent and strong team-oriented defense (see: Boston, San Jose). That points me to less an issue of which players are involved than a sense that the team might just be a little too good for its own good, if that makes sense. Fancy plays and sloppy backchecking <— overconfidence?
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
Oh, I believe that absolutely (that and the bigger cap hit Alzner would have). You could make an argument that Sloan might be a more effective defenseman now (just for the sake of argument). I don’t think you can make the argument that Sloan would be a better defenseman in April than would Alzner, not if Alzner was playing up here.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Maybe I’m misremembering this, but wasn’t Alzner one of the first sent down this year? Or was it Carlson? Not because of a bad camp, but because with the cap situation they already new they would be down in Hershey anyway, so might as well be practicing with the guys he would play with.
by HateOffSeason on Nov 13, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Alzner was sent down 9/29, and if I remember correctly the deadline to get under the cap/roster size limitations was 9/30.
Maybe it was Carlson then. Or maybe I’m just wrong. Don’t tell anyone.
by HateOffSeason on Nov 13, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
I do think Carlson was sent down earlier – right around the time Hershey’s camp was starting if I remember correctly.
CI is many things, and one of the great things is the easy to navigate weekly archive. Here’s the post that details who were the last cuts made by the Caps.
Alzner, Aucoin, Giroux, and Sugden (kept up late in the pre-season because of the games against the Brash-i-fied Rangers) were the last guys cut.
Carlson was sent to Hershey earlier than expected.
Carlson may have been one of the last reassigns last year?
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 13, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely, Nylander’s status plays into this much in the same way Chris Smith was claimed and that Q/Sloan may be.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 13, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
The next time a company references cutting workforce to reduce company overhead, in place of the sometimes sinister sounding term “synergies” (whoa, alliteration), the phrase “reducing the Nylanderian impact” should be used instead.
by Stephen Pepper on Nov 13, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
I’m going to attribute this to patience. I’d like to think Bruce Boudreau is conducting what amounts to a 50 game audition. Why?…
We’ve hinted at one reason for poor team defense: the lack of consistent pairings, particularly beyond the top duo of Mike Green and Shaone Morrisonn…
The Green-Morrisonn pairing is a known commodity. With the other six (and seven, if Alzner is in the mix at any point in the season) you would have to get a feel for who plays best with whom, and you’d like to have guys who have a representative number of games under their belt in the event of injuries in those last 30 games.
This is one of those areas where — again, I’d like to think — the Caps are behaving with April in mind, not November.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Wasn’t Bruce also giving a 40-to-50 game audition to the goalies until he picked one and went with him?
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by J.P. on Nov 13, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fifty, he said. Though when Theodore started Wednesday night I almost thought he’d made up his mind already.
Apparently that is/was the case. Though coming off of Theo’s last game, if he was the undisputed #1 wouldn’t you throw him back out there tonight?
To me, the goaltender battle is so far from settled it’s not even worth talking about. We have no number one — we have two guys fighting for it.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Nov 13, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well, clearly theo became the #1 after Varly’s rough start, but yes this will be a season long battle. because it is theo we’re talking about.
I disagree that anyone has been the number one at any point.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Nov 13, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Well, putting a name on it is meaningless, but to me, when a guy starts both ends of a back-to-back, he’s your #1.
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by J.P. on Nov 13, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
At the time I (and others) postulated that either something was wrong with Semyon or BB was testing Theo.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Nov 13, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
The Caps seem to be settling into a “whoever’s hot” approach instead of the rotation implied by the 50-game deal.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Right – playing the hot hand seems contrary to the strategy Bruce espoused at the beginning of the season. Not that I have a problem with it, but it just seems to have been an on-the-fly adjustment.
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And Gabby knows how to manage goalies, no matter what Kolzig said!
by Stephen Pepper on Nov 13, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
That, my friend, is a topic for discussion in another post…
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I wish people would respect the author and stay on-topic.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 13, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
In my defense (for starting this derailment), it was a tangent and not a non sequitor.
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No. It makes sense to start Varly tonight, since he’s already been bitten in the rear once by starting Theo on back-to-back nights. If you’re thinking of Theodore as your #1, which do you start him against, the team you’re fighting with for #1 in the conference and who’s beaten you twice already or a team near the bottom of the West?
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
My wife is also giving me a 50 day audition.
by Stephen Pepper on Nov 13, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
This could also be interpreted as a major case of correlation ≠causation. Could it be that the teams with the best defense give up fewer goals because they have the best defensemen, the best defensemen are able to settle with one partner more quickly (or, alternatively, coaches don’t feel the need to switch them around), and therefore consistent pairings are simply a RESULT of giving up fewer goals rather than the cause?
by sixsevenfiftysix on Nov 13, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Then how do you explain the games we’ve seen where the Caps completely lock down even deep offenses like Boston and San Jose?
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
That wasn’t an attempt to explain or disprove anything about the Caps’ d-men. Just proposing an alternate interpretation of the stats on a league-wide level.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Nov 13, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I can buy this, to an extent, but I don’t think there’s any question that defensemen benefit from gaining playing time and chemistry with a specific partner. The timing, communication, etc. develops with familiarity and it benefits the pairing.
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Agreed. I was about to add that a guy like Scott Niedermayer could probably play with anyone and not miss a beat. But throwing Jurcina, Erskine, Schultz, Poti and Pothier into the blender on a nightly basis? Not so much a recipe for success.
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I wouldn’t mind seeing Scott Niedermayer playing with someone in red this spring.
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Nov 13, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
But yeah – when things are going good, you stick with it; when they’re not, you tinker. It’s definitely a bit of chicken-or-the-egg.
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I agree with this point as well but more that it is too early in the season to state a definitive reason.
I think these stats also say a great deal about the goalie siutation more than the pairings. NJ’s % is low because they’ve been hit by the injury bug yet have Brodeur and a team system in place. Bos has Thomas. SJ has talent and a solid system. Col has a goalie who’s been standing on his head and Buffalo benefits from the system and Miller.
As for the worst, Ana, Fl, Columbus, Car, and Tor all have had horrendous goalie play. You could make the same argument for the Caps (although not quite "horrendous’).
I guess in the end I’m trying to say (and work with me, im trying to do this via logic); if people are hungry, then they riot. But if there is a riot, does that automatically mean they’re hungry?
FYI, here are similar stats for the top and bottom five in GA/G for the 2008-09 season:
Top 5
BOS: 45.6
MIN: 40.1
SJS: 59.5
NJD: 45.3
CHI: 52.6
Bottom 5
COL: 30.5
TBL: 23.6
NYI: 36.4
ATL: 42.9
TOR: 26.5
So the numbers come way down (injuries, call ups, trades, etc.) but the trend seems to hold.
My memory may be faulty but over the last ten or 12 games anyway the defense pairings have been pretty consistent as follows
Morrisonn Green
Poti Jurcina
Schultz Pothier
Each of these pairings have a left handed and right handed shot and combine an offensive defenseman with a stay at home defenseman. I still think at some point one or more of the 8 defenseman will be traded to make room for Alzner and maybe even Carlson.
Proud to be a Caps fan. Its a Great Day for Hockey.
I've seen the future. And it is good.
Morrisonn Green
Poti Alzner
Schultz Carlson
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Sasha Semin
I’m a fan of
Alzner Green
Mo Carlson
Schultz Poti
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
by zephyr on Nov 13, 2009 5:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I like that, too, but I don’t think they throw Alzner into top pair minutes from the beginning.
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Nov 13, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
It's the forwards
I think the only way we are going to keep pucks out of the net, as constructed, is for our forwards to want it for 60 minutes a night. Like they did for 50 against MIN. Like we’ve seen them do when they want to. If they play on the other side of the redline then we won’t give up goals. Like it or lump it our offense is the backbone, lungs, and heart of the team. If they win pucks, we win games.
Our D is just not going to respond well to skilled teams putting pressure on them; and once we’re pinned, it’s too late. I think the D can get marginally better with familiarity and communication if they play regularly together, but these guys have been on the same team playing with each other for years. They should know each other pretty well. The defects we have on D aren’t the kind that fix themself. Speed doesn’t just materialize. Hands and comfort and poise with the puck aren’t going to greatly improve suddenly on a guy that’s been in the NHL for years. We either upgrade, or we get used to this being the general level of production from our D. The two upgrade possibilities are trade or Carlznerson. I prefer Alzner because I see all these lotto pick offensive players lighting it up and I kinda wonder what it’s like to have lotto player who’s that good at keeping pucks out of the net. I’d like to see Carlson take the full year for the Hershey apprenticeship but he should presumptively have a spot to start next year.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
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