Varlamov should take every shootout
by six hole on Nov 12, 2009 2:08 PM EST
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PrintThis isn't going to be analysis heavy - there simply isn't enough data to prove who's better. But I'd guess that putting Varly in for every shootout should net us 3-4 points in the standings the rest of the way. The only real downside I see is the risk of injury, since going in cold is the easiest way to pull a groin, and possibly some effect on JT60's confidence. The benefits are, well, more points in the standings, and maybe SV40 confidence. My only question is whether to put Varlamov in at the start of overtime, so as to get him warmer before the shootout, or trust that the 10 minutes before the shooting begins is enough time for him. I think there's even a case to be made that he'd be better than JT60 in overtime (less risk of screens and deflections, greater likelyhood of odd-man rushes) but that's for another time.
Fact: Caps shooters are below average in the shootout. In the last few years it's been a pretty stable group of shooters and what did we get:
- '06-'07 - 12.5% vs league avg of 32.76% - (heavy on Ovechkin and Semin)
- '07-'08 - 25.6% vs league avg of 32.51% - (Kozlov helped)
- '08-'09 - 28.6% vs league avg of 33.71% - (Semin decent, others meh)
- '09-'10 - in early returns it's 23.5% vs 31.07% - both figures are brought down by last night's game
Mostly fact: Jose Theodore isn't as good as he used to be, in the shootout or on breakaways.
- '05-'06 - .833 save% for MTL (5/6) in shootouts
- '06-'07 - 1.00 save% for COL (6/6)
- '07-'08 - .786 save% for COL (22/28), 6-1 record
- '08-'09 - .727 save% for WSH (16/22), 4-4 record thanks to below average shooters on team
As of last year he was still above the league average. I think most of us would feel that by the end of last year, in the playoffs, and even into preseason that JT60 was no longer above average on breakaways. On numerous occasions we needed a big stop on a breakaway and didn't get it. Most of us have also been pleasantly surprised by his play this year, and somewhat disappointed by SV40's. Of course by now their GAA and SV% are very similar. I'm not going to read too much into his 0/2 in shootouts this year, I'll just state that he's at league average for a team that needs an above average goalie.
Conjecture: Semyon Varlamov is one of the league's best on breakaways.
Obviously he's described as "very athletic and explosive" in every scouting report, and our own eyes can tell us his movement is incredible and reflexes quite good. He does make mental mistakes and he does give up goals in bunches sometimes. But my eyes also say he's well above average at making the big save on the breakaway, with plenty in last year's playoffs. I only remember him conceding one this year - 10/29/09 Todd White ATL - but I could be off and the definition may be subjective. It's too early to use his 13/14 performance in this year's shootout as proof, but it seems to fit the narrative. As a young athletic goalie if you only give him this one thing to concentrate on, with no other distractions, he's one of the best. The risk of goals in bunches or deteriorating confidence means nothing here because if he's given up two we've probably already lost the shootout. The risk of continued failure is irrelevant.
Fact: The Capitals need to pick up points in shootouts. The Caps are right with the best in the league and getting Game 7s at home is important.
But we've consistently left points on the table. Last year it was with a 4-5 record in shootouts, '07-'08 was 4-6. We're 2-1 so far, we haven't lost by more than a goal all year, and it looks like we're a good bet to keep going into overtime at a good rate. Assume we're in nine more shootouts this year. With JT60 I think we're 3-6, with SV40 I think we're 7-2. That's four massive points in the standings - could be less, could be more.
Let's look at our competition. MAF and Johnny have staked PIT to a 4-0 record behind 13/14 saves. Their shooting is a nice 6 for 13 too. NJD and MTL are 3-0 thanks to 8/9 and 7/7 respectively, and great shooting. These teams are getting it done. PIT and NJD are our main competition at the top of the east right now, unsurprisingly.
Advice: Get Varlamov into every shootout. Somehow. Just do it.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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Great Read
But a couple of quick points…
JT60 was no longer above average on breakaways
Maybe I’m in the minority, but breakaways and shootouts are entirely different IMO. A better comparison would be penalty shots me thinks.
Also, while good work showing the downward trend in JT60’s shootout numbers, it’s also important to note that he still had better numbers than a good number of #1 goalies (top-tier)…and that his home numbers were amongst the best in the league.
There’s no question Varly has fared better on breakaways…but I don’t think 2 career shoot-outs is enough to get a true idea of how he’ll fare in the skills competition.
With JT60 I think we’re 3-6, with SV40 I think we’re 7-2.
I’m not sure how you’re coming up with those W-L records, but I don’t agree with them though I don’t know how I’d make a change.
Let’s look at our competition. MAF and Johnny have staked PIT to a 4-0 record behind 13/14 saves. Their shooting is a nice 6 for 13 too. NJD and MTL are 3-0 thanks to 8/9 and 7/7 respectively, and great shooting. These teams are getting it done
Last year Fleury was 3-4 in the SO with a .727 SA%. Johnson was 0-1 with a .500 SA%.
Great work on compiling everything, I’m not trying to sound overly negative, just trying to play devil’s advocate. Varly looked great last night, but it was still against the Islanders…and I’m not sure how they view SAs in the shootout….but there were several times last night when the shooters missed the net entirely.
Maybe I’m in the minority, but breakaways and shootouts are entirely different IMO. A better comparison would be penalty shots me thinks.
I would agree with that. Breakaways are an unexpected, on-the-fly game moment whereas penalty shots and shoot outs give the goalie time to prepare mentally.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 12, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Just look at AO’s production in the shootout compared to his production in in-game breakaways and I think the point is basically proven. Notwithstanding G7 v. PIT AO is much better on in-game breakaways.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I’m not sure how you’re coming up with those W-L records, but I don’t agree with them though I don’t know how I’d make a change.
Through the magic power of the interwebs … I am making them up. So that we have something to talk about.
Agreed that PIT goalies may not be able to keep it up. But they’re doing it for now, 4-0 ain’t a fluke. Part of the point also is that they have better shooters so the pressure is on to have better goaltending.
I think that breakaways and shootouts are different, and I think that works in Varly’s favor. He has less things to think about, just stop the shooter one time, rebounds don’t matter, etc.
I guess one of the points I was trying to make is that the Caps have only given 1 point away in the shootout thus far this year…and Theo (and the shooters) gave away 4 last year. A bigger concern for me is the points given away during the first sixty minutes and OT.
by Yoshietree on Nov 12, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually 5 losses last year, Johnny had one.
I would agree there’s more points to be found during regulation, largely based on PP/PK. But you take every point you can get. (Or you take these easy points so that you can send “enforcer” messages at other times which lose points, as some posters might say.) In case I’m not even going to get into the argument right now of which goalie should be playing more. But I feel strongly that Varly should be playing every shootout, even every overtime.
And I think we’re on pace to have a lot more shootouts this year than last year’s nine. 12 of 18 games have been one-goal games, seven into OT, three into SO. So if we’re looking at 12-13 already, and we have the ability to drive more of the OT games into SO by playing more conservatively (instead of 2-2 record so far), then maybe we’d want a high number of them if we think we’ve got a goalie who can win more of them.
The NHL has presented us this magic situation by giving away three total points instead of two. I think we can maximize or point totals by taking advantage of it.
A bigger concern for me is the points given away during the first sixty minutes and OT.
Considering the games we really want to win will never go to a shootout this line can’t be rec’d hard enough.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Interesting that the shootout win percentage doubled in 07-08. I wonder how much the coaching change impacted shoot out strategy. I feel shoot outs are rare enough that they aren’t analyzed by the coaching staff in great detail, but maybe I’m wrong.
Also, well written and well researched. Rec’d.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 12, 2009 2:41 PM EST reply actions
Sample sizes are still a bit low – 40 then 39 then 28 shots.
Also the biggest factor is Ovie going from 6/13 to 2/12 to 1/6 by ‘07-’08. Maybe he had been figured out by the league, and the coach clearly didn’t put him out as much. I’m a bit surprised at how stable the league average has been year to year, right around 33%.
I found that interesting too. The average team wins 1/3 of their shoot outs.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 12, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
That simply cannot be.
By definition, the average team must win 50%.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
by D'ohboy on Nov 12, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think he means the average team makes 1/3 of their shootout attempts.
I any case, this analysis is flawed by small smaple size. All we know for sure is that Theodore has a proven track record of success in the shootout and that Varly might also be good but does not have nearly as much of a track record. Since we know Theodore is one of the best shootout goalies in the league, it would be very surprising if Varly turned out to be even better than him over the long run.
And that doesn’t even consider the awkwardness of throwing Varly out there cold to close the game like Mariano Riviera. Maybe he thrives in those conditions, but there’s certainly not enough evidence to draw any confident conclusions.
I’m a bit surprised at how stable the league average has been year to year, right around 33%.
Which makes Theo somewhat above average as his SO SV% (not including this year) is roughly .800.
I submit that Varlamov is occasionally horrendous on breakaways. How many shots from just above the hash marks have we seen beat him up high? Granted, he’s making the stop if the shooter tries to come in close and make a move, but if they’re blasting, they’re usually scoring.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
Those aren’t breakaways. And to answer I’d say not tons where he isn’t screened or had a deflection. But those bad ones are more likely to be the third or fourth goal he gives up, hence his problem with goals in bunches.
I think jordan is talking about the clear/open shots from around the hash-marks. And, while not breakaways in the traditional sense, they are breakaways in the sense that the shooter gets the shot off unmolested and without any traffic in front of the net.
Which has nothing to do with a shootout. Unless you think everyone’s going to be as ballsy as the captain last night. In any event there’s no evidence that works on him, and no one has ever even attempted that on him with a breakaway.
It’s not rare at all for skaters to rip a shot without a deke on the shootout. If Varlamov keeps showing a pattern of getting beat high glove you can bet that other teams will notice and test him there on the shootout.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 12, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
And I’m saying he’s not what he used to be. He’s 33 and he’s a different kind of goalie than when younger. And no, I don’t have years of watching him closely with MTL and COL to prove that. And yes, most of the numbers are reasonably small for sample size.
I think switching the goalies for the shootout is a terrible idea. It might look good on paper, or work well in video game hockey but these goalies are real people and you’re getting into headcase\locker turmoil territory doing this type of stuff.
I can’t remember the last time a goalie switch worked well for a coach either. I think Toronto has done it a few times and they lost both shootouts.
Neat analysis and idea for a fan post but I’d seriously flip out if Bruce started doing this. It’s already a carnival game.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
by zephyr on Nov 12, 2009 3:04 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Rec’d for saying what I came to say. (But I should probably take the rec away for your concern for goalies’ “feelings.” Everyone knows goalies aren’t like real people and don’t have real feelings. I say we go back to the old days when a bottle of Johnnie Walker was the only psychiatrist a goalie needed.)
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Well said. Injuries aside, it’s particularly bad to play these head games with a rookie goalie and an inconsistent veteran with a history of confidence issues. It’s definitely not worse the potential problems considering the goalie being replaced in this scenario stops close to 80% of shootout shots for his career.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 12, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
And the team should focus on getting the extra point in regulation, not the shootout.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 12, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Fair point. I’d love to hear more examples of where other teams have done it.
And I wonder if a shootout difference were to become clearer to you, is there a point at which you think switching would be advisable? Or would you just try to start the poor-shootout-performer much less?
I guess this was in reply to me?
If the shootout became that big of a concern I would hope that Bruce has a talk with the team asking them why they can’t finish a game while playing hockey and get them on the right track.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
If ever there was a time to do it, it would have been when we had Olie here. Good LORD he was atrocious in the shootout.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
I remember a 12 rounder that he did pretty well in =D
I always felt more comfortable with him in net than Theo (even in the shootout) In the later years you at least knew there was going to be one softie a night but other than that you were going to get solid goaltending that was usually clutch when it counted.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Here’s an interesting read on the topic.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 12, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good read. Limited sample. But I read more into the goalie’s mentality then the limited data so far. (And yeah, Hedberg’s good at SO, why would you take him out …)
I’m not convinced though, and still want to debate the contention that Varly is better than Theo at these things. Because you can respect fragile goalie egos to an extent but there’s got to be a point at which you make a change. (I’m not saying it has to be obvious to all at this point that Varly >> Theo.) If you accept there’s some point at which it’s worth making that change then you might instead put the guy in a t the start of overtime. Or you’ll just start him in a lot more games, other things (stats) being equal.
I don’t think the sample is that limited considering the obscurity of what is being suggested. It seems to not be a very good decision.
If Theo was in net through the OT and Varly was put in cold I doubt that SO goes past 3 rounds.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Right. Theo would have let us down waaaaaay before the shootout was on the horizon.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Rob Parker on Nov 12, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ha, amazing.
But seriously, the only point you should make a change for the shootout is if the starter gets injured. Varlamov may be better in shootouts after playing a full game. But I am positive that Theo after playing a full game is better in shootouts than Varlamov off the bench.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 12, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Nice article. That about sums up my thoughts and it was good to see that I remember about Toronto.
“I would be so pissed off,” Giguere told Cox. “And you’re putting the other goalie in such a tough position.”
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Yeah but we put goalies in tough situations all the time. Seriously, one guy screws up and puts you in a three goal hole … so let’s put the other one out there cold, hope he doesn’t tweak a groin, hope he doesn’t give one up on his first few shots. Not that your chances of winning have gone up any.
And yeah, it’s the definition of a small sample. Let’s see … they tried it once in 2006. And oh yeah, they tried it again in 2008. And they lost both times so, my god, it’s proven THAT was the reason they lost.
Sure goalies could be pissed off by it. Maybe there’s some other goalies Damien Cox talked to who said they’d be fine with whatever the coach wanted, but it didn’t fit his story angle. But put it this way – if you’re Bruce Boudreau and tell your goalies early in the season that you’ll put in whoever you want to for each shootout to try to maximize your chances, do you think the goalie has a huge problem with it? He makes the same decision before every game. And he’s looking at the goalies every day in practice and game situations and might just know if one is better.
I don’t expect every coach would want to do this, and I don’t expect every goalie (in or out) could deal with it well. But I think Varlamov is showing he can cope with getting thrown in pressure-filled situations pretty well. (Sample sizes are still limited.)
Getting thrown into pressure-filled situations isn’t the entire story though…even if you take the mental part out of the equation. Many of the saves (or attempted saves in the case of missed shots) Varlamov made last night were of the groin strain/pull variety. Combine that with the fact that Varlamov’s “athletic and explosive style” and that he has not shown he can survive the vigors of an entire North American professional season. To me that equals a recipe for injury disaster.
This too; if you look at a goalie coming off the bench cold into a game they are stretching every single chance they get until they feel warmed up.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Hmm, I made a longer reply that somehow got eated. I tried to pre-emptively recognize the groin risk, talking both about getting him in earlier (OT) and that there’s 10 minutes until the SO starts. Lot’s of time for stretch and skate. Not ideal like being in all game would be though.
It’s not clear that Varly’s recent injuries have been of the unprofessional / not-stretching-enough variety. While I’m sure he’s had groin pulls in his past, his recent ones were six weeks out with a knee injury (not necessarily his fault) and a broken leg/ankle at the end of his Russian stint. Him being explosive doesn’t mean long-term groin degradation the way a butterfly goalie can destroy his hips (or even a pitcher throwing splitters will destroy his elbow, since you’re fond of cross-sport analogies tonight ;-)
Varly strikes me as the naturally hyper flexible type. If you measure his flexibility without allowing him to stretch out first, its probably equal to or better than the flexibility of most people after they’ve very carefully warmed up an stretched out. It allows him to get away with coming in cold and making amazing saves without pulling a muscle.
The goalies usually get thrown into a game situation. Not into a situation like you are talking about where they will be facing multiple penalty shot attempts. That’s an entirely different ballgame.
I think a small sample is when you take a small portion of something that’s going to be large. What we’re talking about has never been that large so looking back on it it’s a pretty large sample size of data, to me.
I didn’t say it’s proven why they would lose but it backs the point up a lot better than you comparing the Caps goaltenders shootout performances considering they’ve never gone into a SO cold.
Yes, even if Bruce told them that at the beginning of the season I think they would be upset with it. I don’t think there is a decent goalie in the league that would be OK with it. Good goalies always want to play and always want to win. They don’t want to say, "yeah that guy is better than me, go get ’em champ. "
Are you a goalie or just have a very goalie like name? I can’t imagine a goalie even bringing this up so maybe I answered my own question.
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Yes, I am/was a goalie, in two sports, until my knees and hips gave out. Goalies never want to get pulled from a game, and they always want to start every game – I was no different. Part of the mental side is dealing with your ego and the fact someone else calls the shots. Managing expectations is probably the most important job for the head coach relating to his goalies.
When I was young I never dealt particularly well with getting thrown into a game in relief. There’s a certain pent-up anger and “I told you so” lurking, but I think professional goalies are much better dealing with that. There’s some adrenaline for sure. Like Varly said it’s always important to make the first few saves, to get confidence in your movement/positioning and get your head in the game.
Personally I think going in cold into a shootout is easier, especially for a young guy like Varly based on what I can tell of his mental make-up. He’s pretty good with pressure, and he would have less variables to worry about than a game situation. There’s just less to think about .. stop that one guy, or don’t.
Could some goalies hate getting thrown in cold? Yeah, I said as much, and no proof this kid could take it. I think both he and Theo could deal with being on either end of it, they’re professional enough. There was a lot of talk last year about how the playoff yank would destroy Theo. I didn’t see it, and he sat quietly on the bench like a professional, and he said all the right things at the end of last season and beginning of this. But there’s still the question of how a coach would manage it. and I don’t think springing it by surprise (like a yank before game 2 of a playoff series) is the way to go.
I understand that the point of this thread is to explore ways to improve the Caps’ shootout record. But the original post misses the point. Theodore is good in the shootout. The area for improvement is in the shooters’ performance, not the goalies’.
You can mess with the goalies all you want but you’re never going to get your save % to the .900 range, or even the .800 range over multiple seasons. What you can do is acquire good shooters, or coach the shooters you have, to improve shooting %, which, as noted, has been below the league average for the Caps every year since the shootout’s inception.
My question is whether Theodore is still good in the shootout. I argue he’s now just average, but data is limited and bringing in breakaways from game situations is tough. I think Varlamov may be one of the league’s best in the shootout. Same caveats apply. More reliance on what we’ve seen for the past year in games is needed.
A big question for shooters and goalies is how consistent SO shooting/save percentages are from year to year. There’s sample size problems, but do we honestly expect they can just “practice” and get better magically? These are the exact same things they’ve been doing all their life playing hockey – shooters take a few hundred breakaways a year, goalies take a few thousand! Other than expected deterioration at career’s end or improvement at the beginning I can’t see how someone will “change” an innate shootout average.
A 10% difference is 10% if it’s on the shooter’s side or the goalie’s.
Take that last part back a little. I will agree that statistically it looks like a 10% improvement in shooting leads to a bigger change in win age than a 10 increase in save age (just plotting ‘08-’09 data by team and doing imaginary line fitting in my head). Would love if someone wanted to do the plotting year by year and give slopes. I guess this makes sense since one is above 50 and one is below.
I’m not talking about improving 10% on the goalie side or the shooter side in general. I’m talking specifically about the Capitals. The Caps have above average shootout goaltending and below average shootout scoring. This pattern is consistent across Theodore’s career and across the Caps’ shootout scoring history.
Hence, while the Caps’ shootout goaltending can maybe get a little better but not much, there is much more room for improvement on the shooting side. Instead of worrying about which goalie can get us a higher shootout save %, which is not a weakness of this team, we should be worrying about how to get more scoring, which is a weakness, either from the roster as is or by making changes. One immediate suggestion is never to use players who have below average career shootout numbers. (Morrison is very good, as is Semin. Backstrom is near average, Ovie slightly below. Flash is 0 for 5 but maybe he’ll come around. Knuble is 0 for 4, as is Green. Laich is terrible and has only 2 goals in 12(!) attempts. The second best shooter on the Caps is… Nylander of course. These stats lead me to say that our shooters should be Morrison, Semin, Backstrom, and then Ovie. We’re missing Nylander here. The takeaway is more Morrison, slightly less Ovie, and no Laich.)
Granted, you think that Theodore has declined in the shootout and that Varly is some kind of shootout savant. I think both of those assertions are without foundation. That is the point of contention between us and it won’t get resolved.
by LSF76 on Nov 12, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agree to disagree on the goalies, yes. But there would still be the contention that if there is a decent difference between the goalies – you don’t even have to agree with me that there is right now – then you would do well to put in the better one. A difference in points gained having goaltending move from 67% to 80% is worth almost as much as shooters going from 25% to 38%.
More to the point – though I like to see the shooters ranked and agree with prioritizing them like you’re doing, it’s even harder to know what the likelyhood of them scoring on their next shot is. There’s even less data. Who’s to say Ovie won’t revert back to his rookie form (6 of 13) or more like his in-game breakaways? I wouldn’t claim to know but I will say the goalies see a ton more chances, both in game and in practice, to have a coach decide what their intrinsic save percentage is.
And it’s otherwise hard for me to say that Boudreau hasn’t been prioritizing his shooters based on past history, recent form, confidence, something. But I know he’s never replaced a goalie before the shootout.
I think you’re missing the point regarding switching the goalies. Goalies, by nature, can be pretty fragile mentally (no offense to Zephyr and any other keepers on this site) and if something like this gets in their head it will effect parts of the IMPORTANT part of the game…i.e. the first 60 minutes.
I’m going to go out on a limb and assume that you’re ok with swapping QBs every other play also?
I don’t think any goalie would take offense to that. It’s just very true. There are even days of goaltending camps aimed at refining mental aspects of the game.
Tthe difference between the elite and average is consistency and that consistency usually comes in a mental way. These guys in the NHL that are successful have found ways to be strong mentally but there is no reason to throw stones at a glass house if you don’t have to.
“Because the demands on a goalie are mostly mental, it means that for a goalie, the biggest enemy is himself. Not a puck, not an opponent, not a quirk of size or style. Him. The stress and anxiety he feels when he plays, the fear of failing, the fear of being embarrassed, the fear of being physically hurt, all the symptoms of his position, in constant ebb and flow, but never disappearing. The successful goalie understands these neuroses, accepts them, and puts them under control. The unsuccessful goalie is distracted by them, his mind in knots, his body quickly following.” – Ken Dryden
“When you’re losing, it’s tougher to get into a groove. You’re battling yourself; When you’re losing, you find ways to lose instead of trying to find a way to win. You think too much and as a goalie when you start thinking, you’re done.”
- Olaf Kolzig
One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.
Ken Dryden’s a bright guy, and the mental side is huge. But these guys heads are being bombarded with all kinds of stuff already – not starting, getting yanked, reporters, coaches quotes in the papers, not to mention being their own worst critics usually. I don’t think this would be too hard to handle if the coach manages it properly.
I don’t watch all that much but I think the Wildcat is a perfectly fine thing. They’re grown-ass men, getting paid $6M or so each, and they can handle the rejection of not getting to play every down. And I imagine they don’t change them out every single down, but that’s just you trying to be dramatic. More to the point, they practice it that way and know that they’re going to be subbed out every so often, just like the other players on a football team. The issue (back to hockey) is whether a coach sets decent expectations so that his fragile goalie’s egos would know this might be coming.
While obviously practicing is important, it is impossible to “practice” substitutions at QB to the point of effectiveness. Look at the Dolphins- they have a lot of success with direct snaps to RBs who are already on the field, but when they try to bring QB Pat White cold off the bench, they have less success. Same thing with the Eagles and Mike Vick. Substitutions break up rhythm and hurt performance. It’s reasonable to suppose that the same thing would occur in hockey with goalie substitutions. No matter how much you try, you cannot teach someone to discover instant rhythm coming cold off the bench. It’s true in football and likely in hockey too.
Exit door
Thanks to all for reading/responding/disagreeing. I think I’m going to try to wrap up my participation in the thread because it’s about wound its course. And will probably be buried by four more FanPosts pretty soon. I don’t think I’ve convinced too many of you but I’ve enjoyed reading everything and tried to argue my position about to the limits without it getting personal.
This subject was more a thought I had in the preseason and thought I might inquire about then (has it been done before? – YES, and not so well). But I forgot it until Wednesday’s game was a reminder. I hate to seem like jumping on a bandwagon – it was more of a spur to go find some data and clarify my thoughts. I’m far from totally convinced of these myself, maybe like the Jurcina mock-arguers, but I guess I wound up saying four things:
Theodore is just average on shootouts – at least for those who posted there’s little agreement. I’m not sure myself and am leaning more heavily on breakaway performance in reaching that opinion.
Varlamov is a shootout savant, as was aptly put above – some doubters definitely showed up but they sound more just like doubts about him in general. Some actual game data on breakaways for all games he’s played would be nice. This is still my opinion, and there probably won’t be enough data to say much for a couple years.
Replacing a bad SO goalie with a good one before a SO is smart – and there’s no evidence for, a teensy bit against, and a ton of doubt. Thanks to JP for the article, I wish there was more actual data, and I think there could still be some interesting theoretical analyses about the point benefits of increasing save% a bit vs shooting%, or about trying to play for a SO if you have a superior goalie.
A coach could avoid f’ing up his goalie’s heads by preparing them for this – I was hoping someone would confront this more directly. I agree that the biggest risk is to those delicate egos, above injury worries, or the new goalie not doing as well as the old would have (and heck, there’s no data to say!) But don’t coaches play all kinds of head games with their goalies already? Don’t they already have to know what to say to them and how? We’ve got a coach in DC who’s known to gab to the media and have no real filter … but I think I detect him being comparatively harsher on Varlamov than Theodore in his press quotes. I don’t think it’s an accident. Not sure if it’s higher expectations, more deference to the veteran, or maybe just how he thinks they can take it. I don’t think it’s because SV40 has had more brain farts than JT60 so far.
Anyways, I would love for some coach in this league to declare a policy that he might change goalies before the shootout. I want some data! I don’t expect it would be Gabby but there’s a chance. I’d love for some reporter to ask him whether he’d consider it and what his thinking would be. For more SV40 vs JT60 comparisons I’m content to leave it until near the end of the season.
Thanks to all who read this far.
After tonight’s game, I’m about ready to say that Varly should be taking every shootout because he should have been starting all those games in the first place.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 15, 2009 1:41 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
50 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 59 |
|
Washington
|
51 | 27 | 20 | 4 | 58 |
|
Winnipeg
|
53 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 54 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
50 | 22 | 23 | 5 | 49 |
|
Carolina
|
53 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 47 |
(updated 2.4.2012 at 6:07 PM EST)
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