In Defense of Alexander Semin
by Becca H on Nov 11, 2009 12:00 PM EST
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Alexander Semin's pending RFA status and continuing evolution have put him in the spotlight for much of this young season. And now, with the recent injury to Alex Ovechkin, that spotlight becomes even brighter as many look to Semin to carry the offensive burden for the team.
It's in that role that the "Other" Alex - for now the only Alex - has drawn the most attention, as well as some of the harshest criticism. With no #8 to deflect the glare, Semin's flaws and idiosyncrasies seem more numerous, more pronounced - and more likely to get called out by his most vocal of critics.
Semin's always been a bit of a divisive player for Caps fans; there have long been those who were frustrated by him, those who appreciated the skill but recognize the flaws, and those who fiercely defended him regardless. But as evidenced by the response to a recent debate on his future with the team, it would seem that the anti-Seminic forces are gathering steam.
His performance in a 3-2 loss to New Jersey seemed for many to be the breaking point. Three penalties taken, one of which led to a New Jersey goal. No shots until the third period. Finishing -1 on a night when two of the three Devils' goals were scored on the power play. It was supposed to be his big shot, his first chance to prove he could make up for the loss of Ovechkin; it ended up being his worst game of the season, and led many to ask whether this team wouldn't be better off trading him to bolster depth elsewhere.
And yet it begs the question - could it be that we're judging him a little more harshly than we should?
Consistency and Effort
One of the criticisms of Semin's game is his lack of consistency and what seems to be a lack of effort at times.
In general, he's a streaky player. But it's not inconsistency so much as it's the nature of a sniper, particularly one with as much skill as he has, to hit hot and cold streaks. Those beautiful curl-and-drag moves that stymie defenders one night can just as easily lead to blatantly bad turnovers the next; because like the team, Semin's game is all about high risk, high reward.
And when the reward doesn't pay off, it's glaringly obvious.
Yet Semin has managed to put up a point-per-game this season and has put up at least 25 goals a season since the '06-'07 season, despite missing significant stretches of time with injury. Since the lockout he has been on the ice for 285 Capitals goals and has either scored or assisted on 209 of them. He's been a plus or even player in all but two games this year, has averaged three shots a night and trails only Ovechkin and Backstrom in average ice time for a forward.
He's also continued his production into the playoffs and raised his game, often being one of the best players on the ice. His numbers tell the tale; through twenty-one playoff games, Semin has picked up an impressive twenty-two points (8G, 14A).
A lot of times Semin's performance comes across like that of a great actor - making it look so effortless that sometimes he appears to not even be trying. But it takes a lot of skill to make what he does look easy.
Injuries
We've been a bit spoiled here in DC the last few years, because we're blessed with a Russian Machine who never br-...well, who very rarely breaks. Ovechkin tears through games with reckless abandon, bouncing off of opponents, walls, glass, teammates, all with barely a scratch let alone significant injury. It's a point of pride for all of us that he can play such a physical style night in and night out.
And then we see someone like Semin, someone who has struggled with injuries, and we label him soft or unwilling to play through pain. It seems to be a bit of an unfair standard to hold him to.
Players absorb wear and tear differently, have varying pain thresholds and heal at different rates. What would keep some guys on the sidelines for weeks might cause others to hardly miss a shift. To compare one to the other is to compare apples and oranges, and to claim to know what one player "should be" able to fight through is downright silly.
Penalties
Which brings us to the pet peeve of so many - Semin's knack for taking frequent, ill-timed and ill-advised penalties.
It's easy to assume, both from past seasons and recent performances, that Semin is penalty-prone. Yet there are some really interesting things that can be uncovered when looking at his track record this year.
For one thing, he's taken eight minor penalties through fifteen games - and yet he's only actually been in the box during four of those games. He has yet to be penalized in back-to-back games, and after taking two minor penalties in the loss to Detroit he went seven straight games without serving any penalty time.
For Semin, penalties are like everything else in his game - when things go wrong, they go really wrong. In only one of the aforementioned four games did he have just a single minor. In two of the games he was whistled twice, and we all remember the infamous three trips to the box against New Jersey.
What is so often ignored amid this penalty talk, however, is his equally keen ability to draw penalties. As memorable as that Devils game is (for all the wrong reasons), we somehow forget that Semin was also directly responsible for drawing three penalties - and scoring a power play goal - in a single period against the San Jose Sharks just a few weeks earlier. In fact, Semin's penalties drawn to penalties taken ratio is even - he gives as good as he takes.
Are the infractions still a bit troubling? Sure. Knowing when and where to take a penalty - and when and where not to - is something that comes with age, experience and maturity. And there's still time for Semin to get there.
The bottom line is this. Alexander Semin is an insanely talented, albeit highly enigmatic, member of this team. He's a homegrown product, a player drafted and developed by this organization. Questions of work ethic and consistency and the like aren't questions we can necessarily answer, at least not now - but we see the results, the numbers, the potential.
And it makes him easy to defend...off the ice, at least.
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Many have been judging him too harshly over the past couple of weeks. It’s not unreasonable to hold him to a high standard, because he is highly paid, highly skilled, and usually highly productive. Every player goes through scoring slumps, though, and that’s what he’s in right now. And now we hear he’s playing with a wrist injury, which is probably going to put a damper on a guy whose stickhandling and wrist shot are his greatest assets.
Complaining about the penalties is totally valid – his discipline level is unacceptable a lot of the time. But the calls to bench him/demote him/trade him right now strike me as a bit extreme (and unrealistic – I don’t think a lot of teams are going to offer a huge bounty for a guy in a slump like this, with an injury, and who may bolt to the KHL next year if he’s not happy).
by grapejoos on Nov 11, 2009 12:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Let me premise this by saying that I like Alex, but if he was traded to help the Caps become a stronger team, I wouldn’t object.
I posted in the Nylander thread yesterday that if ATL can’t sign Kovalchuk, could/would the Caps make a run at him? The rights to Semin may be an interesting starting point, but I think it’s more of a question of whether ATL would go for that or not. I feel they would listen rather than have their best asset walk away for nothing.
Semin being with the Caps wouldn’t be a horrible thing in the long run, but if he demands a salary above 5.5 mil, I think they have to strongly question whether he is worth it. His agent’s recent comments, coupled with his lack of desire to learn English and inability to step up when the team needs him most worry me when it comes to the team committing a large amount of years and dollars towards his next contract.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:12 PM EST reply actions
if ATL can’t sign Kovy, a player that supposedly wants to stay in town if the teams shows they are moving in the right direction, then there is no way they could sign Semin.
I really think its the Caps or the KHL for Sasha.
You're probably right...
However, what is the starting point for Semin’s next contract? I don’t want to see a large amount of years committed to a guy that is always nicked and dinged. But at the same time signing him to a 1-year deal or having him leave for the KHL would really hurt the Caps.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
If the Caps were to somehow lose Semin or trade him or whatever, I’d love to get Kovalchuk. Love it. But Kovy’s going to command Ovechkin-like dollars and between that and (hopefully) a fat new contract for Backstrom and possibly Varlamov…there’s just no money.
His agent is a well known and frequently documented nutjob; we’ll see how he feels about “discounts” when it comes down to it.
Also, careful about confusing not wanting to learn English with not wanting to use English. I’ve seen Semin talking and joking around with his teammates (other than Ovie) plenty of times; I think he just is afraid to use English with the media because he doesn’t want to be misquoted or sound stupid or whatever.
And after the last time he tried it and its result, who could blame him?
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
Huh? If you’re referring to “deadwood,” that interview was in Russian.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The reference was to “what’s so interesting about Crosby”, which was mistranslated. It’s amazing the man will talk to the media at all after that.
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
Right, but that was an interview given in Russian to a Russian reporter that was NOT mistranslated. Becca referred to his reluctance to use English with the media. One has nothing to do with the other, unless it’s an inherent mistrust of the media, which isn’t what you implied.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
My mistake, then. My point remains the same – anything you say can and will be used against you in the court of the media, so if saying it in Russian gets you that kind of risk, how much more so in English? No wonder he doesn’t want to speak English to the media.
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
Hey, if he couldn’t speak any English, would he be hangin’ with pols?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yes. You have an enormous head.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if the City Council gets Fenty’s game seats?
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 11, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh he’s making the duck face. Or is that just how his face is? Either way, it bugs me.
by CaptainAwesome on Nov 11, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Kovalchuk will make more money by staying in ATL because they can afford to commit a greater amount of payroll to him, and ATL needs Kovalchuk more than he needs them.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
$5.5M sounds about right; to my mind Nicky’s a safer investment and I don’t see him crowding $7M too hard.
I don’t know what’s so offensive about “I don’t believe in discounts”: it’s certainly what I’d expect my agent to say! I don’t know why we’re sold on “lack of desire to learn English”: it’s not an easy language, and maybe he’s just disinterested in talking to American Celebrity, Inc.
It’s nice to have two guys who the enemy has to account for every second.
I’ll bet Picasso was a pain to deal with, and I know lots of people “paid too much” for some his smaller, early works.
by redlineblue on Nov 11, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
If I played hockey, I would the the kind of guy who would give a discount to stay in a city I loved and to have stability.
If I played hockey, I’d hire an agent who told the press he doesn’t believe in discounts.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Right, they aren’t mutually exclusive. You start with a “no discount” stance so that when you negotiate your discount it’s still higher than it would have been if you start from a discounted price.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I find that quotes given by agents and general managers are easier to understand if you just accept that they’re all constantly lying.
On an unrelated note, F&B you should reply at the third level of threads as often as you can. It makes your sig statement look good with the “If consequences” lining up.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly. Negotiations 101, you start all negotiations here:
Semin was the second gunman on the grassy knoll, clearly he must be traded.
by Chris meet Alex on Nov 11, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I just hope Semin and Gandler aren’t made to do the worm and the crab during negotiations.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 11, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t mind so much if Gandler had to do the worm… (Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin are quite funny, aren’t they?)
by mechanicsville on Nov 12, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
as a note, English is considered one of those “easy to learn, difficult to master” languages. most native speakers can attest to that!
Really? I believe it’s the opposite. I think English is actually a pretty difficult language because it’s based off so many different root languages such as German, French, and Latin. It’s also not a symantic language, which makes it more difficult.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
its easy in the sense that it doesn’t have genders for nouns, conjugating is very easy (only the third person singular is conjugated), those sorts of things. Lots of linguists and lots of non-native speakers note that picking up the basics is pretty simple, all things considered. But again, a difficult language to fully master.
(And English shouldn’t have anything to do with Latin, and all the silly grammar rules, like not splitting the infinitive, that come from Latin were shoehorned onto the language for no meaningful reason except for the belief that Latin was “perfect” and so English needed to conform.)
Yea, I’m fully aware that Latin was prescribed upon the English language. I believe it was the work of a Bishop if I recall correctly.
What I mean is English evolved as a weird conglomeration of languages depending on who occupied England at the time. The confusing thing about English is that it relies heavily on syntax to generate meaning whereas Romantic languages do not. There are also a lot of unusual and downright illogical rules to the English language. For example, try explaining to a non-native speaker the different between their, there, and they’re.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
On the other hand, since our rules are notable only for how many exceptions there are, pretty much anything goes. Makes it easier to limp your way along and get yourself understood, since we English speakers are all so unconsciously flexible in what we’ll understand.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Right you are. It comes down to prescriptivism vs. descriptivism. Prescriptavists believe language is only right and good when the rules of the language are adhered to. Descriptavists believe the sole purpose of language is communication and if you can articulate yourself, rules be damned.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
this conversation would not have taken place at TEB’s place, or any number of other hockey SB nation blogs. love it here.
by Natty Bumppo on Nov 11, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
A contributing factor is the fact that by the time I got around to reading this post, everything I had to say was already commented on in a longer, more detailed way. I jumped in where I could, haha.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Makes it easier to limp your way along and get yourself understood,
And it makes it easier to be misunderstood, taken out of context, etc. If I wasn’t confident that I could precisely get my point across I wouldn’t want to hazard talking to the American media.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Not sure I’d want to hazard talking to the American media in English.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m sorry, I can’t let this go, nothing personnal.
The difference between their, there and they’re has nothing to do with how hard English is. All languages have words that sound the same. I’m sure native speakers make that mistake more than people who had to learn it, because most learn the language by writing, not just speaking.
Anyway, as a side note, I would say English is actually one of the easiest languages to learn, that is one of the reasons why so many people speak it. but for a slavic speaker, latin languages (I include English) can be difficult (and vice/versa). I’ll buy that it’s hard to master because there are so many colloquial phrases, but as much can be said for every language, it’s hard to master… I’m sure Semin understands perfectly, he might not talk all that well since it appears he doesn’t speak very often. You can’t stay in a country for 3+ years and not pick up the language, even if you try your best not to.
Back to hockey…
The difference between their, there and they’re has nothing to do with how hard English is.
I was using that as an example to show how English relies on syntax for meaning moreso than other languages. It’s not the most profound example, just the first thing that came to mind.
I would say English is actually one of the easiest languages to learn, that is one of the reasons why so many people speak it.
I would argue the real reason so many people speak it is due to the far reaching influence of the British Empire and the emergence of the USA as a world power.
latin languages (I include English)
English is not a Latin (Romantic) language by definition. It is technically a creole. As RedBirdie mentioned above, the influence of Latin was somewhat contrived.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
it’s technically a member of the Germanic family.
Our Magnificent Bastard Tongue is a wonderful if somewhat challenging read. The Mother Tongue, by the incomparable Bill Bryson, is a bit easier (less scholarly! but still enlightening) read.
Right. It’s roots are Germanic, which is why a lot of our most basic words have Germanic etymologies. There is also a lot of French and Latin influence. I bet someday there will be a lot of Spanish mixed in as well.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
It helps that English never met another language it didn’t steal from. Old or even Middle English would probably have been harder to get everyone to adopt. But by now it’s such a mutt that it feels natural to add words from other languages or even just make them up. That flexibility is a big asset to an international language.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
No worries, all good points, and you seem to have more knowledge than me on languages. some points you make I don’t really understand (English relies on syntax for meaning moreso than other languages). I’ll stand by my point that English is an easy language to learn.
As for the reason why so many people speak english, for sure the British empire and USA is a major reason, but still if the language is tough, that won’t make a difference. No real way to confirm/infirm this as there aren’t many comparison points. Russian made a push in the 20th century with the USSR, but it’s so difficult to learn. We’ll have to wait for when China becomes Number 1, we’ll see if Chinese, or Mandarin, becomes global. I doubt it.
And finally, I agree that English is not really a latin language, it’s just very similar to French/Spanish, when compared to Russian. Lots of words come from Latin, though.
I took some linguistics classes, but it’s been years, so I should probably refresh my memory. I’m a native English speaker, so I can’t attest to how difficult English is to learn. My main point is that English is simply a bizarre language.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Oh sorry, I didn’t see the part where you asked about the syntax issue in English.
Basically, it comes down to analytic vs. synthetic languages. The topic is pretty in complicated (and I only have a basic understanding), but I’ll try to give an overview.
An analytic language has a low word to meaning ratio, while synthetic languages have a higher ratio. That means each word or word part in an analytic language means something specific, and in order to create meaning, those words have to be placed in a certain order (syntax).
In a synthetic language, word parts are inflected or derived differently to create meaning. Word parts are joined together to create a larger word that express a more complex idea than the individual parts.
English is analytical and relies largely on syntax. Romantic languages are synthetic and rely largely on inflection. I probably did a terrible job explaining that, but like I said, it’s been a while since I studied this.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Jim: Just out of curiosity ...
How many languages other then English are you comfortable speaking to the media in and do you consider yourself fluent in and if the answer is more than one what’s your day job?
Why do you assume that Semin has no desire to learn English?
Also how is scoring 8 goals and assisting on 14 others in 21 playoff games an “inability to step up when the team needs him most.” or are you referring to the recent 2-1-0 streatch without Ovechkin in the lineup as when the team needs him the most?
by markbona-capsfan99 on Nov 11, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Roger Federer addresses the world in three to four languanges. Unfortunately, Semin’s no Federer.
by red army line on Nov 11, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
the swiss are special cases! they’re forced to know three languages by the time they leave grade school.
by Natty Bumppo on Nov 11, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I once stood five feet from Wayne Gretzky while he did a post-game interview in French (long story). Could most non-Francophone Canadian hockey players do the same?
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Nov 11, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Regardless of recent opinions and specific individuals I personally am starting to think it comes down to how many actively creative players you can have skating on your team night in and night out before it starts to affect the team’s ability to maintain that team discipline and order.
We’ve got a really skilled guy zig-zagging around the offensive zone checking anyone and anything going in either direction and hanging around high waiting for the stretch pass. Putting up numbers nobody can match.
We’ve got a D man who leads rushes from the D-zone (when he’s healthy in mind and body). Putting up numbers few D men can match
We’ve got Mr. Curl and Drag who does amazing and terrible things with his stick. Making plays others can only dream of
I just wonder if at some point that uncommon level of creativity from three uncommonly talented and creative players may be too much unbridled creativity for one team.
No such thing as too much talent. Maybe it needs to be corralled better, but grinders are a dime a dozen and 30+ goal scorers are rare (just ask Boston how they’re doing right now).
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
And 50 goal scorers that only score 30…?
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
… are 30 goal scorers.
Say next year Semin’s in the lineup for 3/4 the season and scores 30 goals. Oskar Osala or someone else from Hershey gets the callup for the other 1/4 of the season and scores 5 goals. That’s 35 goals.
Or alternatively, the Caps trade Semin for a generic 20-goal scorer who’s in the lineup all year. Great, that’s 20 goals. Semin-and-a-prospect beat that production by 75%.
As far as the playoffs, every team needs things to go well to win the Cup. If the Caps without Semin are one 40-goal scorer short of the Cup, then I figure they’ve got about a 50-50% chance of getting the kind of playoffs production from Semin that you’d expect out of a 40-goal scorer. Replace him with a 20-goal guy, and those odds drop to 0%.
I’m not afraid of a risky strategy if you have young team. The dice are bound to come up your way one of these years. Semin adds risk in both directions, but I could see him winning a Conn Smythe one year if a hot streak manages to fall in the right time.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Excuse the personalities involved – drastically different, I know, but remember when the Sens had Alexei Yashin and dumped him? That turned out pretty good. It’s not all about fantasy stats.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
Yashin, as it turns out, was a pretty poor return for risk. That’s certainly a possibility with Semin, but I think as long as Semin’s playing with Ovechkin, that’s not going to be as much of a problem.
Not sure I’d want to keep Semin if Ovechkin wasn’t here.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve been wondering hypothetically if I’d be even more of a Semin fan if Ovi wasn’t here.
He’d certainly be a bigger name around the league
In a “best case”, Semin:Pippen:::Ovechkin:Jordan. Nobody’s winning jack with just Pippen.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
by macvechkin on Nov 11, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In a “worst case”, Semin:Pippin:::Ovechkin:Merry.
(Insert Aucoin/Perreault/Bourque short jokes here)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Point taken but your hypothetical ignores what use could be made of that extra cash. The “No Semin” hypo isn’t just a 20 goal scorer, it’s a 20 goal scorer and cap space.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I guess I feel that goal scorers like Semin are what you use cap space on. And then you hope they stay healthy and play well. The alternative is the Nashville path…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
With AO and Green and Backstrom I think we are safely out of contention for the Nashville path. How much can you afford to pay your 4th best player? How much can you afford to allocate to a guy that misses lots of time whether it be due to mental or physical conditions? Guys that score a ton are definitely the kind of guys that you allocate large amounts of cap space to, but step away from the highlights and look at the numbers, the guy produces like Dustin Brown but wants to be paid like Anze Kopitar.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
So pay him like Dustin Brown. I’m definitely not advocating paying him like a 50 goal scorer. I do think he’s more valuable than a garden-variety 30 goal scorer because he has upside, but my upside premium is pretty small.
And I really don’t believe he wants to leave, which means the Caps have leverage. Unlike other GMs **cough**cough**Gainey**cough**, I believe GMGM is willing to actually use his leverage.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
If he wants to be paid like Dustin Brown I’ll lock that up as long as he wants.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Truth is he belongs somewhere in between, and that’s probably where he’ll end up. Anze really is a franchise player, and I think anyone who didn’t realize it before this year is waking up. He’s playing great.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Who would you prefer for Semin’s current $4M cap hit, I mean hey it almost would cover the cost of keeping Nylander….What’s the average production of $4M forwards right now – who has some “comps” handy, I’m being lazy today…and everyone know that I am a serious Semin supporter….
by markbona-capsfan99 on Nov 11, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
If he wants to resign for anything 5 or below I’d do it in a heartbeat.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
So would I. Unfortunately it’s extremely unlikely that he doesn’t get a raise on his current $4.6 million that brings him over $5 million.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 11, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
I agree about the corralling. I get the impression BB believes he has exhausted all his wrangling skills.
Yeah, it’s time for the players to grow up a bit. Or for personnel to change. I don’t think Bruce is doing a bad job, I just think it ain’t up to a coach alone.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
But it’s not inconsistency so much as it’s the nature of a sniper, particularly one with as much skill as he has, to hit hot and cold streaks.
Good point. We always manage to suck it up when AO goes through his inevitable prolonged bouts of invisibility. It’s not “the nature of a sniper” to be streaky. Some are, some aren’t. To call Semin “streaky” is an understatement. The guy has two settings: “White hot” and “Kill your team.” As some have noted, invisible is an upgrade over some of his recent performances.
To compare one to the other is to compare apples and oranges, and to claim to know what one player “should be” able to fight through is downright silly.
This is a true and fair point. But at the end of the day production matters, and being on the ice is a necessary requirement to produce. Whether Semin loses the ability to produce because he can’t/won’t play through pain, or because he’s just fragile, or because of dumb luck, it doesn’t matter. He’s a 50 goal scorer masquerading as a 30 goal scorer. Does it matter why Gaborik or Havlat can’t stay on the ice? No. Same for Semin. But those guys tend to get paid on their talent, not their production. You can’t afford to do that if you want to win a Cup in the salary cap era. We all remember the line from his agent about discounts, do you think he envisions Semin being paid more like a 30 goal scorer (which he is) or a 50 goal scorer (which he could be)?
For Semin, penalties are like everything else in his game – when things go wrong, they go really wrong.
And this is the crux of the complaint. Can you, or any other Semin supporter, say confidently that he won’t turn into bad Semin in the ECF or SCF? I wouldn’t want to make that claim.
The rest of the Penalty stuff is a red herring. Sure, he draws some PIMs, but that is what you expect from the top 6. You don’t expect Matt Bradley to create more Power Plays than your skill guys. Of course, this is an indictment of all our skill players to some extent, but Semin has definitely been a more egregious violator. His PIMs are more likely to be the lazy variety, poorly timed, and come in a bad part of the ice. Just because he draws PIMs doesn’t negate that aspect.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Can you, or any other Semin supporter, say confidently that he won’t turn into bad Semin in the ECF or SCF? I wouldn’t want to make that claim.
I don’t think anyone can make a claim about whether someone will or won’t show up in the playoffs, in a big game, etc. The ongoing saga of Marian Hossa is proof of that. But I think that regardless of how you view his performance and effort thus far in the regular season, Semin’s been a beast in the playoffs.
He was one of the first guys to step up his game in the Philly series and actually played more physical than I expected, and really was one of our best players – in my opinion, of course – through all the playoff series so far.
I don’t think anyone can make a claim about whether someone will or won’t show up in the playoffs, in a big game, etc.
I disagree. There are several players in the league that I’d bank on showing up for a big game. One of them is even on the Caps already.
Semin’s been a beast in the playoffs.
And he’s been invisible. Just like the regular season.
[Semin] was one of our best players – in my opinion, of course – through all the playoff series so far.
Ahhh, to be a Semin fan. If only I, too, could block that one series from my memory. Alas, it happened, and he was there, even if nobody but Brooks Orpik noticed him. (Not to mention he’s supposed to be one of our best players. Matt Bradley and David Steckel get extra credit for being one of our best players; our best players don’t. That’s just living up to expectations. It’s like feeding your kids or not beating your wife.)
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I disagree. There are several players in the league that I’d bank on showing up for a big game. One of them is even on the Caps already.
Jeff Schultz?
by David Getz on Nov 11, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
FTW.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 11, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Ive been a big fan and an apologist of Semins since before the lockout. The kids got undeniable talent, but its one thing to be streaky, its another thing to hurt your team when youre in a goal scoring slump. If youre not scoring, dont do anything to cost us goals. I dont know if alot of Caps fans remember this but during the lockout the Caps assigned the under contract Alex Semin to AHL Portland to play with Brooks and Schultz and our other young guys, he refused, took a suspension and played in Russia. That didnt sit too well with me at the time as I wished he had took an interest in gelling with his teammates and becoming a true part of the organization. Im very conflicted on how to feel with Semin, so I just take it as I see it, he scores, im happy, he takes a stupid penalty, im pissed.
Those highlights are simply filthy. It’s worth reminding yourself of some of what he’s done, on the off chance you’ve forgotten.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I can’t see it from here but I’m betting I can guess at least two of the goals that are in there. I’d say two out of every three goals he’s scored, particularly in the last two years, have resulted in me staring at the replay with my jaw on the floor.
The things he can do…sick. Just sick.
I don’t think it’s a question of skill as much as it is consistency and being able to rely on him the times that Ovechkin is out of the lineup or having an off night. Everyone knows the skills are there, but I think we would all like to see just an ounce of the passion and drive that his buddy Ovechkin shows out on the ice.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
This is on point, but it’s not just “an off night.” His “off nights” last for weeks at a time. That’s enough to get eliminated from the playoffs, my only real concern.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Agreed...
But he is a valuable asset and immensely talented, a kind of player that doesn’t show up too often. That’s why the Caps ultimately need to resign him, but the dollars and years need to be right. He and his agent need to understand that if Semin wants to command 6 mil per year, he better start playing like he deserves it, and not like Martin Havlat who makes 5.5 mil if I’m correct.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
That’s why the Caps ultimately need to resign him, but the dollars and years need to be right.
This sentence is inherently contradictory, but hits the nail on the head. I’d love to resign Semin, but I’m highly confident that he wants more money than he’s worth. He already makes 4.6 and production-wise I don’t think he deserves much more. He and his agent are probably looking at his skill and points/game and saying he should get 5.5+. Long term he’s not worth that.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
There are few athletes that are in the category of “sign at all costs.” It just so happens that one is already wearing a Caps jersey. Someone would need to see how much money is left over but if I wouldn’t be upset if the Caps signed him to something around 4 years/5.5 mil. That’s about the max I’d go, unless he proves he can deliver for the team down the stretch.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Dollars and years definitely need to be right – I love having him on the team and want to keep him, but not if he’s going to demand too much money/term.
So where is your walk-away point? How much is too much?
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
He’s at $5 million this year, right? I’d say nothing more than $6-6.5 million, max…and no more than 2 years until he can prove he can stay healthy.
Of course I also would wait to see what he does the rest of the season – we’ve got a long way to go before his true value is determined.
I think he’s worth between $5 and 6 million, but what we think someone’s worth and what they’ll get paid in a market like this – even with the economy – is very different. Both Laich and Green ended up with about $500K-$1million more than I thought they would.
In a different market. We’ve already seen teams tight aganst the cap because it didn’t go up this year. It’s not going up next year, either, in all likelihood, so there’s even less cushion for a lot of teams. And a lot of less than top-tier vets got way less than anyone expected. I could see a shorter term contract for less than he wants, hedging for an increase in the cap over the following years.
Yeah there is a lot of hockey left to be played. I’ll be pretty disappointed with GMGM if he gets 6.5. I could live with 6 on a 2 year deal but that’s probably my absolute ceiling.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
No one’s asking, but my prediction is a dramatic, 11th-hour one-year deal at $5.6m.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
In the most painful (for us) way possible. This sounds highly credible to me.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
(Oh, and because I left it out above…)
Spot on.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
5.6. You’ve carefully thought that one out. I wouldn’t bet against you. ;-)
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
Not really… I doubled his number and said, “Eh, sounds realistic.”
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by J.P. on Nov 11, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sounds about right. One year deal I could live with but ideally you want to sign away a year or two of a guy’s UFA years.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
At 2 years you run the risk of him succeeding, thus driving his price range too high for the Caps. In all likelihood, Varlamov/Neuvirth will be making more money after those two years, possibly Alzner if he lives up to potential, and if the Caps want to retain any other secondary scoring like Flash, Semin will be gone in two years. If giving him more years with going to a max of 4, will get the Caps a discount on dollars, I’m all for it.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
But you always run that risk – and he’s on a 2 year deal right now, too. I’ll take the “risk” of him succeeding for two years, particularly if it helps us win a Cup…and even if it means he bolts afterwards.
True, if he can help the Caps win a cup, then he can go wherever after. Not to keep branching away from the discussion, but has anyone brought up the potential impact on Ovechkin if Semin were to leave/get traded?
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
It came up a bit in the roundtable last week – I think the consensus was he’d be a little upset, but would rather win without Semin than lose with him.
I can’t see success as too bad a risk.
Then again, Tampa would look a lot better with Brad Richards right now…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Broken window fallacy again
But what do they give up to get him under the cap? Look at the unseen as well as the seen, grasshopper.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Lost me there. You need to drink less or more.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
The third option is a nap. It’s making a late push and closing.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Recommend about a gallon of water before you take that nap. You might be visiting the porcelain throne room more but hangovers do suck.
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
GS, I believe that last comment might have been something like giving fighting tips to Donald Brashear.
I think F&B’s got a good sense for how it goes from here… {grin}
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Possibly, but if you’re really trashed the reminders don’t hurt. Just trying to help.
Our lives are this moment, the music, the dance ....
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
(That was meant more to give F&B shit than you)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
And what I was saying was that if you put Brad Richards on TBL they have to give up a bunch of other players. They either lose another impact player, or they have zero depth and would be pretty terrible anyway. I’m not sure how much better Brad Richards really makes TBL in a salary cap world.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Yup. And they lost Richards because he had a breakout year. So maybe there is some risk in success.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly what I was saying before, but Richards did help Tampa win a cup, and I don’t think anyone here would be that upset with that happening.
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
That’s why the Caps ultimately need to resign him, but the dollars and years need to be right.
This sentence is inherently contradictory, but hits the nail on the head. I’d love to resign Semin, but I’m highly confident that he wants more money than he’s worth. He already makes 4.6 and production-wise I don’t think he deserves much more. He and his agent are probably looking at his skill and points/game and saying he should get 5.5+. Long term he’s not worth that.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
based on what we’ve recently seen from the Caps, sans Ovi, could they succeed in the playoffs without Semin in the lineup at all (Ovi in)?
If they go into playoff mode before the playoffs start, if the Big Three stay healthy enough to contribute, if everyone plays hard, if the goaltending is reliable and consistent.
by red army line on Nov 11, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Big three? Who are you counting out? I have a feeling it’s not the guy most deserving of being counted out.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
The hypothetical situation was with Semin out. Big Four—>Big Three
by red army line on Nov 11, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
His "off nights" last for weeks at a time.
But do they really last that long, or do they just feel like they do? A quick scan of his numbers the last two seasons, including playoffs, would prove different. Last season he was only held without a point 8 times, and only once in back to back games. He had points in 11 of his 14 playoff games.
I think his slumps – especially this one because Ovie’s not there – can just feel longer because like I said, when he’s off everything’s off.
Last season he was held without a point 28 times. Missing games matters.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Rob Parker on Nov 11, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not to use the “C” word (or make this comparison in terms of talent) but Crosby missed 29 games the year before. Think he wasn’t valuable or productive?
Missing games matters, yes, but if you show up more often than not in the games you DO play I’m more inclined to give you a pass.
And I’d rather a guy miss a game entirely and give someone else a chance than take up a roster spot but fail to produce.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously that’s preferable but he’s still eating that cap space. Even LTIR still kills your ability to bank cap space for a deadline deal.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Yeah, I’m just talking production.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Are you really going to make me defend Crosby? Suffice it to say there isn’t a single GM or honest fan in the league that would take Semin over Crosby.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Man, there’s an adult joke there…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Crosby has played 77+ games 3 out of 4 years. Semin has played 77+ once in his career.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
And Crosby doesn’t take stupid penalties when he’s playing poorly.
Wait, you say he’s leading the league in minors?
Never mind…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Crosby has a Cup.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
And we all know what you think of attributing team achievements (or the lack thereof) to individual players.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Crosby has a Cup.
Is this the whole Ovechkin-Crosby argument all over again?
by JimCareyFanClub on Nov 11, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
No, it’s the Semin-Crosby argument. If Semin starts producing like Crosby he can do all the stupid shit he wants, as far as I’m concerned.
Now enough of this Crosby talk, I feel dirty.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
To be fair, they’re kind of playing simlar games these days…
Actually Crosby’s a lot worse. What is he, -6 and no points in his last 5 or something?
Yeah he’s been a fantasy albatross of late.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Crosby has a Cup.
So did Patrick Thoresen, but it didn’t do him much good.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Genius
Space Weed Says The Steve Ott of Hockey Blogs
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on Nov 11, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Crosby also doesn’t have the same history of inconsistent play and bad penalties that Semin has. This is a first for Crosby. I wish I could say the same about Semin.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 11, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve seen passion from Semin. Maybe it comes and goes, but when it’s there it’s there.
We also can’t forget that Ovechkin is the gregarious extrovert from Moscow and Semin is the shy introvert from Siberia. It’s just not to expect them to be different from who they are. Might as well ask for “schultzlife55” or ask Neuvirth to become Hextall.
Semin at his best is surgical. He’s a precision guy, and when his precision is off he’s bad. But when it’s on…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Introvert/extrovert is an erroneous issue, IMO. Patrick Marleau is an introvert but he brings it night in and night out. All I care about is what you show on the ice; more to the point what your team can count on you to show on the ice.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I’m talking about the perception of passion. People jump all over Marleau saying he doesn’t have passion — Thornton too. They don’t understand, that’s just who those guys are. And they’re damned effective at what they do. I’d love to have Thornton or Marleau — any team would.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
but, to my eyes, Semin doesn’t have that extra competitive drive. Nicky’s quiet as can be off ice, but on ice? He wants to win every second he’s out there. Alzner might be the nicest person in the world, but he will shut you down on the hockey rink without apologizing. It’s that level of competitiveness I don’t see from Semin. He wants to win (doesn’t everyone?) but he’s rarely shown that willingness to push just a little bit harder, let alone shown it consistently.
Hate to lose is more important than love to win every day of the week.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
For one thing, he’s taken eight minor penalties through fifteen games – and yet he’s only actually been in the box during four of those games. He has yet to be penalized in back-to-back games
Is this an arbitration hearing? Sounds like agent-based fuzzy logic to me. :-)
Semin is not a physical player nor a particularly active backchecker since he’s a wing. With with few exceptions, he should be taking ZERO penalties. The fact that he takes them, out of laziness, in the offensive zone – makes it worse.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
hmmm, Bruce has this to say today:
Coach Bruce Boudreau praised Semin for playing through an assortment of ailments because he knows the team needs him with Ovechkin out. Semin has not scored in six games and has not recorded a point in three.
“He’s got some bumps and bruises,” Boudreau said. “You all know his history; he’s playing through all of these things, which is a really positive thing. I applaud him for doing what he’s doing and just going out there and trying to compete.”
PRECISELY. This should just close all discussion about Semin’s performance over last few games. I applaud Boudreau for positive wording for the first time in…well, don’t even remember when was the last time he praised Semin for anything.
No, it shouldn’t. See Corey’s take on the same quote:
Bruce Boudreau on Alexander Semin: “He’s got some bumps and bruises. For Alex — you guys know his history [NOTE: if this is your first day reading the blog or following the Caps, this is a reference to Semin’s propensity for nursing minor injuries longer than he needs to] — he’s playing through all of these things, which is a really positive thing for him. I applaud him for doing what he’s doing and just trying to go out and compete.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Corey’s take is how I took it. Semin likes to be 100%, so Bruce was giving some positive reinforcement when Semin finally man-up’ed and played a little banged up because the team needs him. It doesn’t excuse it brain farts.
I was more surprised to see Bruce praising Semin, so I thought it was worth adding.
PRECISELY. This should just close all discussion about Semin’s performance over last few games.
And what about the other many times he’s played the same way? What about the penalties?
and what explains the debacle that was Semin in new jersey? to the best of anyone’s knowledge, he wasn’t injured there. And the New Jersey game is where a lot of the ire is stemming from.
Don’t get too caught in the minutia. You can probably find excuses for him during all of his periods of poor performance. The salient point is the habit that has formed. Whether it’s the Backes Xcheck or the Orpik slash or the swine flu or whatever, he hasn’t shown the ability to bring his A game consistently.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
and I actually agree with you. Semin is streaky, you never know what you’re going to get. He’s freakishly talented and that allows him to get by. When he’s on, he’s a trilled to watch. When he’s not, you never know if he’ll just disappear, or he’ll be a major liability. And that, to me, is the biggest worry.
Right, I understand, but I think even if you take out the last week or two, you still have all these problems we’ve been discussing.
Not so sure about that. Say, let’s take 4 games in November off. In October Semin was +3, 13 points and only 3 minors in 11 games. Would you expect more from him?
I think expecting more of him and discussing his weaknesses are two different issues. I’m fine with his productivity, including the fact that he’s in a drought right now. I’m not okay with his tendency to hurt his team.
The problems he has had have extended far beyond just the last few games or even this season. Players play with bumps and bruises all the time and are still effective players, but Semin is actually hurting the team recently, much less being effective. And if he is hurting the team because he has some bumps and bruises then sit him.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 11, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Sounds like some reverse psychology going on with Bruce. Criticizing him for lazy penalties didn’t work, so now he’s trying the praise approach. Or maybe, it’s exactly what it looks like. He’s been told the injuries Alex is playing through and he’s changed his opinion. I always kind of laugh when I hear the term “soft” applied towards a hockey player. IMO, the “softest” hockey player is still tougher than the “toughest” basketball player.
Reverse psychology? Its been pretty obvious the last couple of games that something hasn’t been quite right with the guy, I mean even the shots he has taken have looked really weak. I was saying when he came back the last time that something wasnt right with him.
He supposedly has an injury to his right wrist. He had a brace on at practice.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Which is pretty significant considering how much of his skill depends on his ability to be able to curl and drag around guys and get off a wicked wrist shot. That’s he’s playing through it? Even more significant.
Most definitely affects his stick handling and his shot. The tripping penalties however…
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Damn wrists have a mind of their own.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
He’s able to generate so much power from his wrists. I tried pulling off a Semin wrister compared to an Ovechkin one, and my wrists felt sore after trying to curl it into my body and shoot. Plus, he’s able to stick-lift from the end of his stick, which, if you know anything about levers, should really be impossible.
by red army line on Nov 11, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Just curious, what’s the difference between a Semin wrist shot and an Ovechkin one?
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Semin’s usually come immediately after the faceoff or after a ridiculous curl and drag.
I feel the same away about avatars as Ovechkin does about speed limits.
Semin’s usually come immediately after the faceoff or after a ridiculous curl and drag right before he gets put on his hiney.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
Semin’s usually come
immediately after the faceoff or after a ridiculous curl and drag right before he gets put on his hineyfrom his knees
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja0hIBEdjnU
I feel the same away about avatars as Ovechkin does about speed limits.
Semin generally shoots with all arms/wrists. AO gets his weight behind his shot more.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Semin’s also a back-foot shooter (like me), while Ovechkin is a front-leg guy.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
Ah, thanks you guys. This is the stuff you don’t pick up on in peewee.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 11, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Semin’s shot release because of this looks somewhat slow (I dunno if he can snapshot like Ovie) but it is sure as hell lethal.
by red army line on Nov 11, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I agree he still has the penalty problems and those are all on him, but I just feel like when he isn’t producing at the other end is usually when these “should we re-sign him” discussions start popping up.
Having them last year when he was simply carrying the team for a nice chunk of the beginning of the season wouldn’t have been very practical I guess.
No I know he does, but that’s my point, people are quick to throw the sink at the guy before they figure out whats going on. He has often been criticized for not playing through the pain, and then when he does… its like the guy cant buy a break.
He’s been on the team for 5 years making the same mistakes. I don’t think people have been that quick to throw the sink at him, or have refused to give him a break (insert Brooks Orpik joke). For a while it looked like people were going out of their way to excuse his lapses.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
its still telling that this kind of talk usually comes about when he is not producing like he normally does. I think the media said it best today during the interview with Bruce, You dont often see Semin go 6 games without a point.
what kind of talk? The Semin Roundtable was the first serious, organized, non-"BAWHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SEMIN SEMIN STUPID PENALTIES SEMIN! I’ve seen. This is the internet, there’s a lot of dumb people posting stupid stuff (see: Pensblog) out there, but until recently, most educated fans were willing to either overlook his flaws or excuse them (injuries, immaturity, etc).
Given that his contract is up at the end of the season and is probably looking for a raise, I’d say its fair game to discuss the pros and cons of Semin, what he brings to the Caps, and so forth. If he were replicating what he did at this time last season, the discussion would be “How much are you willing to pay Snowflake?”
this kind of talk usually comes about when he is not producing like he normally does.
What is your take on how he normally plays? It’s definitely not accurate to say that normally he’s the dominant offensive force that he can be. It’s not fair to him to say that he normally kills the team with bad decisions, either. I think the problem that many have identified is that this is how he normally plays. Periods of awesome punctuated by periods of awful. It’s not new. It’s become a pattern and some people finally reached the tipping point.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
There’s a very high risk because of it. As others as brought up before, he can take over a couple of games in a playoff series, but may also get hurt and start piling up the minuses (i.e. GA>GF at ES). I feel like that’s sort of an epitomy of the Caps as a whole, but I wouldn’t mind them being a little less talent-laden in exhange for knowing exactly what I’ll get from ’em every game.
by red army line on Nov 11, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Penguins are “normally” grey, because half of them is white and half of them is black.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
(it’s a metaphor. For how the quality of Semin’s play follows a bimodal distribution)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
explains why we’ve seen a lot more slapshots out of him lately
by ns on Nov 11, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Do you tihnk Semin even reads the post game press releases?
I feel the same away about avatars as Ovechkin does about speed limits.
Might there be a good analogy here somewhere:
Semin’s game needs space to be effective. Space created when he’s playing with talents like Nicky B and Ovie. Space created when he’s on the PP.
This is space he does not get when Ovie is out of the lineup. Teams know who to focus on (maybe with Flash surging, he might get more space tonight) and when you put a body on Semin, he gets wrecked like he did vs FLA this weekend.
I see Semin as a great 2nd reciever. Santana Moss. Flashy, fast, talented, but in no way will he carry your team to the promised land by himself, as the main target. He needs space, and it’s no coincidence that his recent slump relates to his pivot’s slump, also.
Art Monk and Gary Clark?
Does that make Tomas Fleischmann Ricky Sanders? Eric Fehr is Clint Didier?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think you’re dead on with the space issue. I think Semin can be productive on his own, but he massively benefits when he plays with Ovie because the attention Ovie draws from the D. This is true for pretty much anyone, of course, but Semin can do more with that extra fraction of a second than anyone else on the squad. Until he starts force-feeding passes back to 8, that is.
Except the Care Bears line isn’t typically as effective as the top two lines are when Ovi and Semin are split up…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure I agree with that, though the numbers may be against me here. They definitely can’t stay together for long periods without care bear syndrome, but they can put up points in buckets (like they were doing when the season started).
I’d be interested to see how effective Semin is ES with Ovie vs. without him.
The conundrum of those who make things look effortless
is when things don’t work out people think that you’re not really trying. It’s tough work to make things look easy. I have to deal with problem all the time ; – )
It was similar with Jagr, sometimes it looked like he wasn’t really trying and would score 3 goals, and then some nights it was like he really wasn’t trying and was minus 3.
Your favorite meme is dead
Wow, what a great post. I completely agree on all your points, as I am one of the mentioned who continues to defend Semin despite the growing opposition to him.
I for one, really hope we will resgin him next year. It doesn’t have to be a long term contract, we can give him “a couple more years (insert eye rollres from the Semin-haters here)” to see if can mature. With Nylander’s salary hopefuly off the books in ‘10-’11, perhaps we could offer him a 10/11 mil, two year contact that would pretty much replace Nylanders in capspace.
I feel the same away about avatars as Ovechkin does about speed limits.
Also I want to add that he has stepped on in the past, last year he was leading the league in points while Ovechkin was slumping and he did the same another couple of years back. There was a really good Rink post on that a while back, I’ll look for the link.
I feel the same away about avatars as Ovechkin does about speed limits.
Yea, I agree. I feel like I’ve been defending semin a lot lately too. And it’s a ridiculous feeling to think that I have to defend a player as good as him. I think for the team and for Semin a 2 year, maybe 3 contract would be best for both…. with space leftover to resign backstrom, flash and steckel.
And it’s a ridiculous feeling to think that I have to defend a player as good as him
Why is it ridiculous? Is it because it’s ridiculous for his critics to point out the glaring flaws in his game? Or is it ridiculous because such a good player shouldn’t be giving his critics this much fodder? Ultimately the only person responsible for this ridiculous conversation is Alex Semin.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
A little of both. Of course he should be playing better…but i mean the guy has a string of bad games and it’s time to burn him at the stake.
the guy has a string of bad games and it’s time to burn him at the stake.
That’s simply not true, at least not for a lot of us. Some people may have had their opinions swayed because of his recent stretch, but for a lot of us it’s the fact that it’s been happening over and over again for literally years.
I’m not disagreeing – but after acknowledging that that he is an extreme case of high-risk high-reward..you have clearly chosen he is not worth it because he takes careless penalties, and not even an enormous amount AND has been getting better about it until recently- I’m saying he is worth it.
I don’t think that’s an accurate way to frame the issue. I don’t think anyone thinks the Capitals would be better without Semin, i.e. by waiving him. What I think is that the team can parlay him as an asset into other assets than will make them more likely to win the Stanley Cup.
I mean. the same can be said for any player. Let’s trade ovechkin for 5 very key players – that probably WOULD give us a better chance to win the cup. but why would we? And besides, I know a guy on the team that loves playing with semin so much so that, " they dont even have to talk and they know what eachother are doing on the ice, where they will be."
I mean. the same can be said for any player.
That’s simply not true, especially in a salary capped league. Every player has a value to their team and has a value to the rest of the league.
For that to be true, every player would have to have more value to someone else in the league than they do to the team they’ve on, and that’s simply not the case.
Let’s trade ovechkin for 5 very key players – that probably WOULD give us a better chance to win the cup. but why would we?
I very much doubt that any trade of Ovechkin could make the Capitals a better team, and I even more doubt that there’s a trade that could make them better in the long term.
In a more general sense, though, the question is if a move gives your team a net positive benefit, why wouldn’t you make it?
you’re telling me we couldn’t get several KEY playoff players for ovechkins 10 million? AND even more important than that, there is much much more to value to a team than dollars and cents. and no way of knowing we would get this “net positive benefit” you keep bringing up. We know we have an all-star caliber player in Semin and he is liked by the most imporatnt player on our team – and they play well together (really well, in fact). it makes NO sense to me how you could not see that value as the GREATEST value there is. It is beyond me, and i appreciate you taking the time to break it down in crayon for me…but i simply fail to see it.
you’re telling me we couldn’t get several KEY playoff players for ovechkins 10 million?
No, that’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying I don’t see a way for the team to move Alexander Ovechkin and become better. It’s not just the ten million – of course with ten million in cap space they become a better team. But I don’t think the players they bring in are going to do more for the Caps than Ovechkin.
Plus Ovechkin has a reasonable contract for more than a decade. Losing him hurts the team’s overall quality long term, and I don’t see any feasible way to replace that. I think Ovechkin means more to the Capitals than he would to any other team in the NHL. If there’s some feasible trade that indicates otherwise, I’d be curious to hear it, but I don’t see what it could possibly be.
oh ok – crystal clear. but that’s kinda what I’m saying about Semin…you saw what he does when he plays with ovechkin….yea sometimes you have to break them up because they get “too cute” but together they are amazing – and I think that value is greater than any value we can bring in… like splitting up backstrom and ovechkin – sure we could get a damn good center, but why would we backstrom is so great with ovechkin
One Ovechkin is more valuable than 10 players who are each 1/10th as good. If the Caps had those 10 players instead of Ovechkin, where would Backstrom, Laich, Semin, Knuble, Morrison, or Flash play.
In sports, you want to compress as much talent into as few people as you can, because you can always find some average players to fill out the roster.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Whatever the Caps could get for Semin in a trade would never equal what they’d be giving up. All the arguments used here and elsewhere would be the same ones used by another GM to drive down the asking price; he’s lazy, he takes too many penalties, he’s injury-prone, he’s a by-product of Ovi, etc. For all his minuses, Semin is a top-tier talent that just doesn’t come around very often. GMs, and particularly our GM, isn’t going to let that get away, partly because of what that talent could mean to his team and partly because of what it could do for another team.
by b.orr4 on Nov 11, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The key isn’t talent though, it’s production (or more vaguely contributions to winning hockey games), and Semin’s production hasn’t matched his talent and probably never will. For the Capitals to evaluate him on talent rather than how much he helps them win games would be a huge mistake.
by David Getz on Nov 11, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In a perfect world, yes. However, GMs live and die (and get fired and hired) a lot of the times based on who they keep and who they let go. And their biggest fear is that if they tarde the enigmatic, super talented player he’s just one season away from putting it together and going on to a ten year All-Star career.
How many GMs lost their job because they traded Zherdev away? Or Kovalev? Sure it’s a fear that Semin puts it all together and becomes a stud but at 25 it’s not that likely that he’s going to.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...