An Early Look at Penalty Plus‑Minus
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 11:00 AM EST
74 comments
"For us, discipline has been a problem all year, an Achilles' heel." - Brooks Laich, 5/12
"We need to remain disciplined, staying out of the box is a big key for our team." - Brendan Morrison, 10/20
"We need to take leadership and take ownership of the dumb things we're doing. We have to stop it." - Mike Knuble, 11/4
The more things change, eh?
Actually, yes, to a degree. Entering play last night, the Caps had committed the 12th-fewest minor penalties per game in the League, a marked improvement over a season ago, when only a half-dozen teams committed more minors than the Caps (in raw numbers, the Caps' minors-per-game is down from 5.05 in 2008-09 to 4.35 so far this season). And despite a couple of memorably bad back-to-back games (against Columbus and New Jersey), the Caps have faced three or fewer power-play-opportunities-against in five of their last eight games (going shorthanded just twice in four of those five). So even if the team individuals on the team need to work on the "when" and the "where" of the penalties, discipline overall has been improving.
At the same time, the Caps are drawing more penalties than they did last season, up from 19th in the League to 7th, from 4.11 power plays per game to 4.41. Now if only the extra man unit could catch fire...
But enough about this whole "team" concept - let's focus on the individuals who are taking and drawing these penalties.
Back in late March, we took a look at "penalty plus-minus," that is, simply, the difference between the penalties a given player has drawn and those he's taken - the power play opportunities he's creating and the penalties he's forcing his teammates to try to kill. It's all after the jump.
First, a look at the forwards, ranked by penalty plus-minus per sixty minutes of five-on-five ice time (and we're just looking at five-on-five non-coincidental penalties; PD is penalties drawn, PT penalties taken, +/- the difference and +/-Per60 the +/- per sixty minutes of five-on-five ice time):
| Player | PD | PT | +/- | +/-Per60 |
| Alexandre Giroux | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5.9 |
| Eric Fehr | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| Mathieu Perreault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Quintin Laing | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.8 |
| Matt Bradley | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.4 |
| Chris Clark | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 |
| David Steckel | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Brooks Laich | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Keith Aucoin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alexander Semin | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Boyd Kane | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Tomas Fleischmann | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Mike Knuble | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Brendan Morrison | 2 | 4 | -2 | -0.5 |
| Boyd Gordon | 0 | 4 | -4 | -5.3 |
And now the blueliners, same criteria apply:
| Player | PD | PT | +/- | +/-Per60 |
| Mike Green | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Tom Poti | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Brian Pothier | 0 | 2 | -2 | -0.5 |
| Shaone Morrisonn | 3 | 6 | -3 | -0.7 |
| John Erskine | 1 | 2 | -1 | -0.7 |
| Jeff Schultz | 0 | 3 | -3 | -1.0 |
| Tyler Sloan | 0 | 2 | -2 | -1.1 |
| Milan Jurcina | 0 | 5 | -5 | -1.3 |
So what have we got?
- Up front, to see checkers like Matt Bradley and Quintin Laing so solidly in the black thus far speaks to how well they've done been doing their jobs at five-aside.
- Raise your hand if you'd have guessed that Chris Clark has drawn 50% more penalties than he's taken. Or that he's 25th in the League in penalties drawn (forwards only). Not too many hands raised...
- Brooks Laich was a stud in this metric a year ago, drawing 23 penalties and taking only five. For whatever reason, he hasn't drawn 'em at nearly that rate this year (0.6 per sixty, down from 1.5).
- In fact, most of the Caps' skill forwards aren't fairing too well here, with a nominal "top seven" (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, Knuble, Morrison, Fleischmann and Laich) having a combined rating of plus-one.
- Of course, that may have been somewhat predictable, given that Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin combined for an even rating last season, Flash was two in the red, Knuble took twice as many as he drew, and BMo was plus-one. Still, you'd like to see your skill guys drawing a lot more penalties than they're taking.
- Only nine forwards have drawn more penalties than Knuble has thus far... but only four have taken more.
- Boyd Gordon... tough start, buddy.
- On the backline, Tom Poti is second among the team's defensemen in even-strength ice time and has played against the toughest competition, and yet has taken only one minor penalty (and has a plus-four rating). Pretty remarkable.
- Mike Green is second among the League's rearguards in penalties drawn.
- No surprise to see Milan Jurcina at the bottom of this list - it's where he was last season, too.
The takeaway from this is that the Caps, in general, seem to be getting with the program as far as discipline goes, and are also drawing more penalties than they did a year ago - in both areas, the team is trending in the right direction. So despite a handful of penalties and a few games that we all wish we could forget, it's important to step back and see the forest for the trees from time to time... and this forest is looking better than it used to.
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Oh Gordo…
"Walter, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to face the fact you're a goddamn moron."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Nov 10, 2009 11:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh Juice…
"And next year it will be ours."
by Ovechwin on Nov 10, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Taking QUALCOMP and GAON/60 into consideration, I wouldn’t hate on Juice too much for it, particularly in relation to ShaMo.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Nov 10, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope GM"s fellow GM"s are on that line of thinking…
by bigonetimer on Nov 10, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they’re both pretty bad. I don’t trust ShaMo’s penalty drawn rate to continue this high. Wouldn’t mind seeing both of them gone.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 10, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So why do we seem to notice the penalties Semin’s taking much more than the ones Knuble’s taking? I wish there were a way of categorizing “good” penalties and “bad” penalties.
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Nov 10, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
We have a breakdown of O-zone vs D-zone penalties somewhere, right?
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here’s the tracker.
And while I’d say that the only “good” penalty is one that denies a scoring chance that would be better than roughly 20% likely to result in a goal, there certainly is a “when” and “where” element in which Semin doesn’t fare too well.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on the desire to set that number somewhere near where our PK percentage is. But it might need to be higher when you consider 1) penalties take away from 5v5 where we’re vastly positive and 2) players getting more tired on the PK. Maybe it should mentally be closer to 30%. Better to give up a chance and a goal quickly and have lots of time to come back instead of slowly on the PK and be tired at the end of it.
by six hole on Nov 10, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When the time comes, you can generally tell when it’s a good penalty. Breakaway opportunities, the goalie’s completely out of position, etc.
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Nov 10, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Selective memory/tendency towards pattern formation. We already had the narrative for Semin so this year just feeds it. We weren’t keyed on Knuble’s past history the same way.
by six hole on Nov 10, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed on past history. But Knuble’s have not gone unnoticed. Gabby has even called him out.
by TylerG on Nov 10, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I missed the call out but yes, I think we’re noticing them.
by six hole on Nov 10, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Knuble’s newer so he gets more slack, but had Semin committed that neutral zone slash against Columbus that cost the game, you would have heard the howls of protest from here to Siberia.
by b.orr4 on Nov 10, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if that slash was part retribution for Ovechkin getting hurt. It seemed the kind of move a vet might think he’d get away with, and it did injure the player. Not excusing it, just wonderin’.
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by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it was definitely a veteran move because he knew exactly where to hit him to inflict the most pain with the least amount of effort. Although, I do think that Columbus player went down like he had just been shot with a .357.
by b.orr4 on Nov 10, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where did Knuble lay on the slash? I’m still learning to “see” the finer points of the game.
IS PЯACTICE ЯINK NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 10, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right on the wrist below the glove line…no protection there either
by bigonetimer on Nov 10, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you wear sweet wrist guards like Bondra.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh. Yowch.
IS PЯACTICE ЯINK NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 10, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is the honest to God truth. I’ve never seen a guy get bashed so badly for mistakes outside of Alexander Semin.
Boyd Gordon had two costly 3rd period penalties in 2 consecutive games. If that had been Semin instead….. (I had posted that, so what happened the next game? That was the Detroit game.)
At the moment, it’s a no win situation for Semin. He’s supposed to take up the slack for Ovi but he’s now injured, is wearing a brace on his wrist, and apparently, that’s not the only injury he’s suffering from at the moment. If he took time off to recover from his injuries, everyone would be bashing him for not playing. Now, they’re bashing for being ineffective. I’m sure it’s hard to shoot properly with an injured wrist.
by CapsFan75 on Nov 10, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve never seen a guy get bashed so badly for mistakes outside of Alexander Semin.
Please. Juice gets “bashed” for mistakes. So do Erskine, Gordon, Fleischmann and every other player on the team, really, who is deserving. The pro-Semin faction likes to play the martyr card, but really, the criticisms are both fair and, more importantly, earned.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Small difference between Semin and your list of Jurcina, Erskine, Gordon and (until 5 games ago) Flash. All those guys suck.
by CarlosLA on Nov 10, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
harsh much? Have limited ceilings as NHL players? yes. Not super stars? yes. Clearly defined role-players? yes. But suck? not so much.
by RedBirdie on Nov 10, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah. Juice is the only one on that list who sucks.
Zing!
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Nov 11, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only cuz Shamo isn’t on it!
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 11, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All the more reason why they should take less flack when they do suck, they can’t help it. We know Semin can be dominant, which makes it more infuriating when he sucks just as bad as the above mentioned players.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 11, 2009 12:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Come down
Get off your fucking cross. We need the fucking space, to nail the next fool martyr.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 11, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. It’s called Confirmation Bias.
by CarlosLA on Nov 10, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure the fact that Semin’s taking minors at a rate more or less equal to or above anyone other than Gordon (whose problems have been discussed), that most are bad penalties, that most are in the offensive zone, and that he has twice as many in the offensive zone as anyone else play a role too.
by David M. Getz on Nov 10, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Knuble actually has a past history of taking some bad penalties on past teams, so it’s not entirely surprising. They are less noticeable though partly because of the timing, but also because Knuble takes fewer restraining penalties that are often the result of not moving your feet (or being slow, which Semin isn’t) and he takes far fewer penalties in the offensive zone.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 10, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He took a particularly egregious offensive zone PIM with PHI against PIT in the playoffs last year, while on the PP. That was one of the biggest plays of the series.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 10, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that. It was a lot less frustrating when he was hurting the Flyers with his penalties.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 10, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the PIM helped the Penguins… that’s bad.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 10, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that was clearly a no-win situation from our point of view.
by gfcaps fan on Nov 11, 2009 7:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of my takeaways is that the Caps’ skill guys should have better +/-s and that 28 in particular should be drawing more penalties. Unfortunately when he has the puck and feels contact, he tends to stop skating. (Semin might watch Laing, Q.)
by TylerG on Nov 10, 2009 11:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
His reputation as a flopper might come into play here.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, when you stop skating when you feel contact….
by TylerG on Nov 10, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Semin is slowly growing out of that. He occasionally still looks like “that guy” but for the most part I feel like the last few seasons has transitioned him into the guy that realizes he’s beaten a player when they’re resorting to hooking and gets strong on his skates and tries to bury one. So it’s all the more infuriating when he does his stick work…
But, you can’t like his takeaways without accepting SOME of the hooking calls he’s gonna take.
The two go together to some degree and everybody seems to forget that sometimes.
God kills a kitten every time Sidney whines.
by Chris meet Alex on Nov 10, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think that’s true at all. Datsyuk is one of the best takeaway artists in the league and he almost never takes penalties. Guys like Backstrom, St. Louis and Okposo also have a lot of takeaways without taking penalties. The vast majority of the time if you get a penalty for attempting a takeaway it’s because you aren’t moving your feet and you are reaching with your stick.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 10, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
May I introduce you to the ‘actions’ feature, whereby you can express same and help highlight the good post for others by clicking on ‘rec.’
by TylerG on Nov 10, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
F&B and all the other folks are right, you’re a patronizing assneck.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently I can’t introduce it to you. You know about it but simply choose not to use it.
by TylerG on Nov 10, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Name-calling isn’t OK. Don’t do it again.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m with you on that and am all about Semin moving his feet to lessen that impact, but I think it’s going to be there to some degree.
I would give the same leeway to Semin in this regard as you would to physical defenseman who takes a few too many penalties for your liking when trying to intimidate (sometimes for the exact same reason, not moving their feet), both have a downside when the player steps over the line, but they each have their value. The stick penalties just seem more aggravating because a defenseman’s roughing penalty seems like an aggressive play… but they’re essentially the same.
I do think (hope) that will come with maturity. I think we often see that Semin is still pretty immature, but forget how far he’s actually come; he used to be much worse (frighteningly enough)… hopefully it’ll be forgotten issue in a few seasons.
God kills a kitten every time Sidney whines.
by Chris meet Alex on Nov 10, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just looked at the list of last years takeaway leaders, and a lot of them had similar penalty minutes (if not more) than Semin, and no they aren’t fighters.
So your list of those who don’t take a lot of pentalties includes a few select players (including a few that are some of the best defensive players in the league), but for the rest who aren’t the Selke-type players, it’s probably going to in some way be part of the deal.
God kills a kitten every time Sidney whines.
by Chris meet Alex on Nov 10, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
First off, after a quick look at the top 10 in that list, Semin played fewer games than the others and is the only one with more than 1 PIM per game. Second, that list also includes some guys like Kesler and Doan who rack up some PIM from rough stuff, not stick fouls. Also, it’s not that rare for guys on that list to spend very little time in the box (and Crosby also got a boost from a few “fights”). Sure you have Lady Byng guys like Datsyuk and St. Louis (and with Semin being one of the most talented guys in the league shouldn’t we hold him to a high standard), but you also have guys like Derek Roy and (a few more spots down) Frolov who have very few PIM. Finally, it may be just because I don’t watch them as much as Semin, but I haven’t noticed any of those guys on the list building a reputation for taking the kind of lazy stick fouls that Semin takes.
So I still don’t buy that Semin’s tendency to take restraining fouls (particularly at bad times in the offensive zone) is a necessary side effect of his ability to strip opponents of the puck.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Nov 11, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
is that a direct comment on his recent go-to move – skate down the wing and when a d approaches come to an abrupt stop along the boards hoping the d will slam himself into the wall? ALl too often that’s where he loses the puck. Gee I miss the curl and drag he used so effectively last year – best and deadliest move in the nhl.
by bigity b on Nov 10, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could Gordon’s back issues contribute to all those penalties? Getting more reachy/grabby to compensate?
IS PЯACTICE ЯINK NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Nov 10, 2009 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
that’s been my thought. The back injury means he can’t skate nearly as well, so he was resorting to bad penalties to compensate.
Buuuuuuuuut, jesus, some of those penalties looked like they just came from a plain lack of discipline and allowing himself to get overly emotional.
by RedBirdie on Nov 10, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you take into account Knuble’s previous team, he probably feels like he should be in the running for the Lady Byng!
by WolfPackof1 on Nov 10, 2009 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The two things that struck me:
The two vets that we brought in to teach the younger players some responsibility (Knuble and Morrison) are among the worst offenders and the most dominating offensive player in the game (Ovechkin), a guy who has the puck on his stick more than anyone has drawn as many penalties as Quentin Laing.
by b.orr4 on Nov 10, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
and I just realized of all the d we discuss moving (Erskine, ShaneMo, Juice, Schultz) my two favorite to keep (Juice and Schultz) are at the bottom of the list AND cant draw a penalty. Thats got to count for something somewhere…
by bigity b on Nov 10, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yuck, I just realized this isn’t counting 5 on 4 penalties, where I think Semin has two more. Those would be both the offensive zone and bad penalty variety, and especially bad for killing our scoring chances.
by six hole on Nov 10, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s got one at 5-on-4 and another that he took at the same time as an opposing player (those don’t show up in the BtN data).
by David M. Getz on Nov 10, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I drew a penalty.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
haha. my what artistic ability you have
by aaw6848 on Nov 10, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know. It looks like he just cut that guy in half with a machete.
by b.orr4 on Nov 10, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha, yeah. Still, pretty good for >1 minute with a mouse in Paint
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Channeling Pablo Picasso?
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Nov 10, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All the noses and ears are in the right place.
Void Boyd! Go with Perreault!
by jordanDC on Nov 10, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of Shamo’s PIMs is a 5 and a game. He should probably be punished with more than one penalty taken for that since the team had to kill 2.5 penalties.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Nov 10, 2009 12:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Yep, this is a rough sketch, more or less. Also not counted: goalie penalties taken or drawn and too many men minors.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for the threadjack…
http://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/5593695443
…But you’ll want to see this.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Nov 10, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure JP has data on this, but it seems to me that we are taking fewer DOG penalties for flipping the puck out in the defensive zone. Poti in particular took some very untimely penalties for that last year. Wasn’t that Alzner’s only penalty, too? I haven’t seen all of every game, but I don’t remember seeing a single DOG penalty so far this year.
by Kirg on Nov 10, 2009 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Caps have taken one DoG – a Shaone Morrisonn puck over the glass.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Nov 10, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is a marked improvement from the 3 or 4 per week we saw last year.
Woods for Adams!
by bigonetimer on Nov 10, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
59 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 88 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
57 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 61 |
|
Atlanta
|
57 | 25 | 24 | 8 | 58 |
|
Florida
|
58 | 24 | 25 | 9 | 57 |
|
Carolina
|
58 | 21 | 30 | 7 | 49 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 4:15 AM EST)
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