Pick 'Em: Morrisonn or Jurcina?
by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 2:00 PM EDT
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"[W]e didn't want to carry eight defensemen again because it's too difficult for everyone to operate that way. It's hard for the head coach because you know you have someone sitting out, and someone is unhappy. And it's hard on the players." - George McPhee, 6/21/08
Despite the quote above (given in the wake of the Steve Eminger trade), the Caps currently find themselves with eight defensemen on their NHL roster. Has it been difficult to operate? It certainly seems as if the defense has performed better over the past couple of weeks due, in part, to a more or less static group of six defensemen and regular pairings, the result of John Erskine's injury and Tyler Sloan's scratches and fill-in duty up front.
If and when Erskine and a forward or two get healthy, the Caps will be back to a roster with eight active defensemen on it - not to mention salary cap concerns and a presumptively NHL-ready blueliner in Hershey - so one would think that McPhee will be looking to make a move.
Two potential candidates for such a move are Milan Jurcina (for and against whom extensive arguments were made this past summer) and Shaone Morrisonn. Their number so far this season:
Both players are set to become unrestricted free agents after this season, a campaign for which Morrisonn will make a not-insignificant $600,000 more than Jurcina.
If a rival general manager approached George McPhee with a palatable deal and told GMGM he'd take either one of the former Bruins to make it happen, whom would you rather the Caps hold on to? Does Mo's proven chemsitry with Mike Green come into play? What about Jurcina’s physical edge on a bluelinenot known for its hitting? And long-sleeved t-shirt or hoodie? Vote below on a question five-plus years in the making...
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Quality of Competition numbers thus far
Juice: 013
ShaMo: -.086
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=8§ion=qualcomp&mingp=&mintoi=&team=WSH&pos=D
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
I take it the higher the #, the better the competition?
by mechanicsville on Oct 30, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Juice’s 4-on-5 QualComp is much higher as well.
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If the compensation packages are equal I keep shamo hands down.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Rob Parker on Oct 30, 2009 2:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Why?
Other than his propensity to take penalties, Juice comes out ahead in almost every statistical category, and not just for this year, either, I’ve gone back and looked at last year’s stats as well (because I think the sample size this year is way too small).
ShaMo might be a slightly better skater, but Juice is a better hitter and shot-blocker, and a better penalty-killer. On a defense that generally lacks “physicality” I’d prefer to keep Juice.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
i would also add that ShaneMo’s stats should be skewed by playing next to Green for 3 years. If he were next to, say, Pothier would he put up comparable stats?
The QualTeam stat accounts for this to some degree though. Technically, Juice wouldn’t get the nod in some raw statistical categories until you adjust for who he played with/against.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Right. Juice is putting up good numbers with higher quality competition and lower quality teammates. Even the raw data at this point in the season favors Juice.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 30, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think there’s much of an argument as to who has been better thus far this season.
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What I mean is go down the stat sheet you posted and the raw data is either even or favors Juice in most categories. And what do you mean there isn’t much an argument? I thought that’s what we were debating?
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 30, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re debating who you’d rather see traded, which presumably includes upside, likelihood of continuing to play at current level, salary, etc. IMO, Juice has pretty clearly outplayed Mo so far on the season overall.
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Ooooooh. I took “I don’t think there’s much of an argument as to who has been better thus far this season” to mean the argument is deadlocked as to who has been playing better. As in “there’s not much you can argue in either direction.”
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 30, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Mike Green get a vote in this?
Just kidding, of course. I’d assume that both of them are likely gone after this year, anyway, what with two whippersnappers down on the farm who need a spot here. I imagine neither one is terribly valuable in terms of what we’d get back (mid to late-round draft pick?). So I guess I’d probably get rid of ShaMo, for the larger cap relief.
Interesting you bring up Green getting a vote. I know you were joking, but given his “stick issue”, I’m not so sure that losing his main D partner would be just a blip on the radar screen.
A man gotta have a code
I wrote that before I read the rest of the comments below. I’m inclinded to go with the bunch that thinks Schultz has the potential to be Green’s long-term partner. But, yeah, that’s sort of along the lines that prompted the remark.
I also forgot that Pothier’s contract is up, so it doesn’t have to be both Mo and Juice, but two of the three are likely out of here.
Juice didn’t PK last year, he’s wildly inconsistent, and he is much more likely to kill the team with a ridiculous turnover in his own zone. Shamo struggled for lots of last year but after the Arnott hit he really seemed to find his game again. I’m not convinced that Juice is really going to keep giving us what he’s shown us so far. He didn’t PK much last year, so I’m not buying the “he’s a better PKer” argument. Looking at the full body of work Shamo has been a much better, and more consistent player for the Caps. Shamo is also much more likely to drop the gloves and fight, should the need arise. I just can’t believe how lopsided the vote has gotten. People are really overlooking Juice’s shortcomings just because he’s had a good start to this year.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
And I’m not convinced that all the PK time and ES time for Juice isn’t an effort to shop him, as opposed to a true reflection of who GMGM thinks is the better player.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
The problem with your argument is
Even if ShaMo got more ice time on the PK last year, he still didn’t do terribly well at it. In hindsight, it’s pretty clear that Juice should have received much more PK time than he did. He put up a better rating despite playing with worse teammates against better opponents.
Looking at the full body of work, ShaMo may come out more consistent, but part of that consistency is his unremitting mediocrity despite getting lots of ice time with his team’s best defenseman. Juice has been inconsistent, but he has shown flashes of being a much better player than ShaMo, and his rate stats demonstrate this (as his “good” nights more than offset his “bad” nights).
The fighting issue is a canard – neither of those guys should be fighting. Ever.
I still think that if ShaMo weren’t a 19th overall pick this discussion would be moot.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
I dunno, I don’t think anyone’s citing Morrisonn’s draft position here. In fact, I think a lot of people would be surprised he was drafted that high.
Nobody's citing it
But it’s still there. Mo’s a “former #1 pick.” It’s kinda like being “Harvard-educated.” It follows you around and defines you to some degree regardless of your innate abilities.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Straw man. Nobody said it. Why don’t you just go ahead and say all the Shamo supporters only like him because he’s a good Ol’ Canadian boy and Juice is a stinking European. “It follows them around” so it makes sense that we are clearly advancing false arguments to hide or true bias.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
We have to keep Juice because nobody else will want to room with Flash.
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
I thought it was for the Czech + Slovak sitcom possibilities?
by David Getz on Oct 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
“Oh, Juice!”
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
How else then?
How else do you explain your preference for a player who’s inferior in essentially every statistical category? A player whose performance has been underwhelming, despite ample opportunities to play with the best partner on the team?
I’m not saying the difference between the two players is massive, but I think you’re somewhat guilty of the same type of thinking that casual fans apply to Jeff Schultz – “he screws up every now and again and looks terrible, therefore he sucks and I’m going to ignore all the objective data that says otherwise.”
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
How else do you explain your preference for a player who’s inferior in essentially every statistical category? A player whose performance has been underwhelming, despite ample opportunities to play with the best partner on the team?
Pretty simple – by looking at the guy to whom you’re comparing him.
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The same way I’ve always justified taking Baxter over E. Staal; I like to know what I’m getting from a player.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Both of them are mediocre, lets not kid ourselves here.
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
Exactly. Juice will never make an All Star game. He’ll never be on a shut down pair for a Cup team. Maybe his mediocre comes from averaging “slightly above average play” with “slightly below average play.” And Mo’s come’s from “regular average play.” But knowing what you are getting night in and night out is important to me. I guess that just makes me a xenophobic draft Queen, though.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
No, it’s independent of your status as a xenophobic draft Queen.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I’m not saying the difference between the two players is massive, but I think you’re somewhat guilty of the same type of thinking that casual fans apply to Jeff Schultz – "he screws up every now and again and looks terrible, therefore he sucks and I’m going to ignore all the objective data that says otherwise."
But Jurcina gave the puck away a lot more often than Morrisonn last year. More or less twice as often.
Giveaways are tough
1) They’re kind of a BS stat.
2) Playing with Green as an outlet helps ShaMo. Watch him play with Green – his first move is always D-to-D. Not slagging it, because it’s almost always the right play, but it does make his giveaways look better.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
On point one I agree, but I think they still have some merit. If one guy’s got 10% more than another I don’t think it means much. But if it’s twice as often there’s almost certainly something to it.
On the second point, I see where you’re coming from but I don’t think Jurcina’s really asked to lead the breakout either.
Giveaways are a BS stat but you’re going to cite blocked shots and hits? Get real.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Sitting in the stands, you or I could easily come within +/- 5% accuracy on blocked shots and hits. Do you think we could do the same for takeaways/giveaways? They’re the ultimate in subjective stats.
But yeah, the actual counting of them isn’t always great.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Look, if you want to knock all “subjective stats” (i.e. stats not officially kept by the NHL) then do that. If you want to count them all, do that. Don’t cherry pick.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
They are official again
At least, players can use them in Arb hearings again…
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
The NHL doesn’t track or standardize them, so it’s unofficial to me.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Except that they do
What gave you the impression that they didn’t?
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
The arena scorekeepers get to make the decision. Tape doesn’t go to the NHL for review of whether or not it was a “hit.” I’ve never heard an announcer say “the NHL reviewed the tape and took away Dustin Brown’s 8th hit of the game, now he has 7.” I have heard “the NHL reviewed the play and now Goligoski does not have an assist on Crosby’s second goal.”
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
And you and I both know that TA/GA are WAAAAAAY worse than hits/blocks.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Blocked shots, maybe, but not hits. Blocked shots are a dichotomous situation – either the guy blocked the shot or didn’t, it’s a matter of figuring out if he did. Hits are more subjective because different people can watch the same play and disagree about whether the player should be credited with a hit.
You get a “blocked shot” just for getting in front of a shot attempt. How many “blocked shots” were on pucks that weren’t on net? If the guy didn’t block it nobody would have gotten a shot, but since you don’t see that the guy get’s the blocked shot. Sometimes you probably get a blocked shot on an attempted pass. I don’t know. What I do know is it’s not standardized so I’m inherently skeptical.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I’m thinking getting in the way of something headed towards the net is a blocked shot.
by red army line on Oct 30, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m thinking you lack clear understanding of what my point was.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I think that’s more clear than the definition of say, a hit or takeaway.
by red army line on Oct 31, 2009 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m tempted to just bail on this argument just because you equated me with Jeff Schultz haters. If I haven’t shown you I think through my positions and base it on reason yet, then I never will. It’s not even like we are talking about two players that I particularly care about. I disagree with you and now you’re cramming all sorts of BS arguments into my mouth. You’re better than this.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
C'mon
You said you prefer consistency. Schultz is perhaps the ultimate inconsistency – he’s a good defensive defenseman, right up until the moment where the oncoming forward skates around him like a pylon. . . Which is exactly why casual fans hate him. They see the one mistake and miss all the other times when he uses his reach to defuse a chance before it even starts.
However, his stats (the forest) allow us to look beyond the occasional mistake (the trees) and get a picture of the full player. I just wonder why you won’t give Juice the same consideration?
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
You clearly don't understand "consistency"
Schultz plays that game every game. He is largely invisible mixed in with a gaffe or two. Every night. I’m not talking about “he makes the exact same play every time” consistency. I’m talking “he looked like the same player in games 1-10 as he did in games 11-20 and 51-60.” Mo fits that much better than Juice.
/next distortion, please
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Personally
I’d rather know what I’m getting on any given shift. If a player’s having a bad night, I can rotate around him. If he’s just prone to shitting the bed on occasion, there’s not a goddamn thing I can do as a coach.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Ok well that still doesn’t help Juice’s case. I still think he’s more prone to the major in-game gaffe than Shamo is.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Again
Two years worth of stats just don’t bear this out. Juice has played better than ShaMo, both at ES and on the PK, despite playing with worse teammates and against better opponents.
Eliminate the hits/blocks/GA/TA, and we’re still left with consistent statistical evidence that Juice is the better player. I’m just not sure why you’re ignoring that…
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
On a 2-year horizon, I’m not sure I agree with this. I think Mo has a better average set of stats over that period of time.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, that’s 2008, and it’s close but Juice comes out ahead. That’s one year, not two years. Going back through the ‘07/’08 season, I suspect Mo has the upper hand.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok
2007-8 – it still doesn’t look good for Shaone
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Those numbers are far worse for Mo than I’d remembered. Time to go, Mo. He really wasn’t very good even in the season we all thought he was good.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Juice was awesome when he first came to the Caps… for a few months. Then he sucked. Then he was OK. Then he was pretty good. Now he’s pretty good. The sun will set, and Juice will suck again. I just can’t get behind a player that can’t bring a consistent game. I’m just not sure why you’re ignoring that….
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I agree, but I also think there’s a time frame on it. At 20 it’s a huge difference, but at 26 and after five NHL seasons I’m not sure it makes that big a difference. Plus, given that Mo was someone else’s first round pick and wasn’t a high-profile prospect when he came to the Caps I’m not sure how many people even know he was a first rounder.
I know he was a first rounder. Just like I know Angus was a first rounder. And Perreault was a 6th rounder. And Borque was a 2. And Holtby was a 4. And SDR was a 7. I evaluate on play, not draft status.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Yeah. Give me some credit D’ohboy, I absolutely don’t care about draft position.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Not targeting you
I said my preference for Juice was a close-run thing.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Maybe if Juice didn’t give pucks away in the slot this discussion would be moot. Maybe if Juice played with any consistency the question would be moot. Unfortunately, neither are true. You want to give credit to Juice for his “flashes of good play” while ignoring the turd sandwiches he leaves all over the ice like clockwork.
I don’t see how the fighting issue can be a canard if we are going with “team toughness” to keep other teams honest. You need guys that aren’t fighters, but are willing to fight. IMO Shamo is much more likely to drop ’em in response to someone taking liberties than Juice is.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I see visions of Flash vs. Fehr here
If Juice got the consistent ice-time with consistently better teammates, don’t you think his results on the ice might look more consistent, too?
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
I’m not so sure. More ice time and responsibility might not necessarily agree with him, given that he’s a guy who has frequently choked under pressure in the past.
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The difference is that Flash and Fehr are both good at what they do…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
To my eyes
Juice is a demonstrably better player when he gets between 18-22 mins/night. When he gets 16 or fewer, he tends to get out of the flow of the game and make boneheaded decisions.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Considering he should be a bottom pair D on a Cup contender I say that’s another reason to blow him out the air locks.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Rob Parker on Oct 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you. I also think he shouldn’t get that much ice time. Therefore, I’d prefer to not have him on my team.
My official position here is that ShaMo has sunk below the steady, consistent Juice Line (it’s like the Mendoza Line) and is now worse than mediocre. Therefore, if the poll had a “trade both” option, I’d take it. Constrained as I am, I’ll keep Juice.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
You need guys that aren’t fighters, but are willing to fight. IMO Shamo is much more likely to drop ’em in response to someone taking liberties than Juice is.
As evidenced by the fact that, y’know, he actually has. [Mo, Juice]
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Defensemen = No Fight
Yeah, there can be exceptions, but generally, I’d prefer that my D-men not scrap. There are other ways to demonstrate toughness. In my view, I’d much rather have Juice out there if the crease needs sweeping.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
If it's just one of these tow to keep,
Mo.
Juice still makes too many mistakes, takes too many PIMs and he can’t get his shot on. I know what I’m getting in Mo, and I’d let another GM find out “what they can get” from Juice.
from the house that Red Jesus built
I’d like more time to decide. End of last season, 26 no question. But Juice might have been the best Caps’ D-man in the postseason and has continued into this season, while Mo has underwhelmed.
by red army line on Oct 30, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll contend that Mo has played pretty well in this short stretch. I wish Bruce would keep him with Green, as opposed to 3-52, which is just teh suck.
In terms of trade value though, I could see a few GM’s take a look at Juice’s raw materials and think, “damn, if [coach] can get that slug on target…” and also judge them superior to Mo’s raw materials. I’m actually fine if we keep them both—and dish Brain Pothier, whose game is eminently replaceable by the Carlzners for a fraction. A guy can dream, yes?
from the house that Red Jesus built
Shocked by the Early Returns
I’ve often felt like the lone Juice-defender ‘round these parts. I’ve always believed that he plays better the more ice time and responsibility that he gets, and his shot – though inaccurate – is more of an asset than ShaMo’s.
Regardless, it’s a close-run thing for me. While I appreciate Juice’s size and physicality advantage (although ShaMo’s been throwing the body around more lately), I also think that ShaMo is less prone to flaking out and/or taking stupid penalties at inopportune moments.
Still, I think a lot of Morrisonn’s cachet comes from the fact that he was drafted 19th overall, while Juice went 241st.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
I’ve often felt like the lone Juice-defender ‘round these parts.
FWIW, Juice killed Ersky in a previous Pick ’Em.
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Yeah
But that’s like saying that the Germans kicked the Belgians’ ass in WWII.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
by D'ohboy on Oct 30, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought it was like saying the Chiefs beat the Redskins a couple of weeks ago.
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by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
The stats and my eyes say that both of them are playing with a physical edge and that ShaMo is a better shot blocker, despite getting less PK time than Juice. Milan is huge, but Shaone isn’t giving up that much in the size department – I was very surprised by how large he was when I went to Kettler and watched him skating around in person.
For even money, I’m taking Mo because he’s a better skater and seems to be a better fit with Green, especially when Green is jumping into the play from the point. Also, as you say, he’s less prone to brainfarts at critical junctures in the game. However, they’re not even money. Taking Milan and the $600,000 could be the difference between standing pat at the deadline and picking up that piece that puts the Caps over the top, or bringing up one of the boys in Hershey that’s ready to play good minutes in the playoffs.
Give me Juice (just not in the box).
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do you say they’re even in hits and that ShaMo is the better shot-blocker when a much larger data set from last year shows Jurcina to clearly be the more proficient hitter and shot-blocker?
Also, while it’s great to say “Shaone plays well with Green,” ask yourself this, how many guys wouldn’t look good playing with Green?
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
I can think of lots of guys that wouldn’t look good with Green. Being a good skater is one of the top criteria for playing with Green, and being defensively minded is probably criteria 2.
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
I disagree
I think the #1 criteria is the willingness and awareness to hang back on the play and break up odd-man chances. Skating could help with that, but positioning and situational awareness is much, much more important. Witness our two “penalty shot” plays from the last two games. Being in the right position and paying attention >>> speed any day of the week.
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Schultz for ShaMo!
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Shamo wasn’t on the ice for either of the Penalty Shot plays. Juice was on one. Poti was on both.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Missing the point
It’s not about the players involved, it’s about the way the play unfolded. The Caps didn’t give up those chances because the guys on the ice couldn’t skate, they gave them up because they collectively spaced out.
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Ok, but skating skills damn near compensated for both of them. Poti almost made the play on Powe, and if Laich hadn’t tripped the other guy Poti probably catches him. That said, Poti was the single most responsible player for both of them, IMO, so I can’t see how that impacts this vote. I also think Shamo is a smarter player than Juice, so if you want to play the “smarts would have prevented it” card then Shamo wins.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
What's the evidence?
Yes, Juice makes mistakes. So does ShaMo. So does Green. So does Pronger.
If he makes so many mistakes, then why are his stats better than ShaMo’s?
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Juice couldn’t get back on…was it the Powe breakaway? I think ShaMo could have.
by red army line on Oct 30, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I was just looking at the stats from this season. I felt ShaMo substantially underperformed last year and what we’ve seen this year is more likely to be what we’re going to see in the future, although the sample size is ~1/8 of a full season’s worth.
Green jumps a lot and he’s very good at it – which is a grand thing for our team. Green is extremely effective but he’s not perfect when he jumps up. I’d rather have a superior skater that I trust to make the right decision on the odd-man breaks and 1-on-1’s that are going to occur when Green is on the ice. Green puts his partners in tough positions and I feel that Mo is a player better suited to deal with those positions than Juice is. Is he an ideal solution? Oh, surely not. I just think he’s better than Juice in that respect.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting take, and I agree that Mo would be the choice if the question was “who would you keep to play with Green,” but I think that if Mo were to move, someone else (other than Juice) would take that other 1D role.
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That raises another interesting line of discussion: who would you pair Green with if Mo were not available?
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 30, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to see Schultz with him for 10 games and see what we’ve got.
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They were pretty good together last near…no? Or we could hope small sample size reflects true nature and go 52-3.
by red army line on Oct 30, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, other than Juice or Mo, we’d have Schultz, Pothier, Erskine, Sloan, and Poti, right? Who takes that role?
Schultz positions well and makes good decisions, but he’s vulnerable to lateral speed as we’ve seen repeatedly against the Rangers and he’d be my choice out of those guys, but I’m not super comfortable with it.
Taking Poti or Potsy leaves one of the pairings without a puck mover and I’m really not comfortable with that given how poor our breakouts have been.
Sloan can skate, but I don’t think he’s sound enough to cover for Green jumping up on a consistent basis and just isn’t a good enough shutdown guy to play against the top line of other teams.
Erskine is, well, Erskine. I really don’t want him getting 20+ a night and playing in the situations that Green does.
Ideally, I’d have Alzer come up and see what he can do, but then we’re back to square one with 8 D in the lineup again. He’s got great lateral movement, seems to have a solid head on his shoulders and plays a defensively responsible game. The problem is that he doesn’t have a lot of pro experience and that could be costly in those situations I’ve been alluding to.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
But that creates a vaccuum pulling players up above where they should play. Losing Juice just means a different 5-7 plays in a 5-7 spot.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
One could argue that having Mo in the 2-hole is already doing that.
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It is. But moving him only exacerbates that problem. I don’t see how moving the 2D is easier to replace than moving the 4/5.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Unless you think Karl Alzner can be that #2D. But yeah.
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I think Jeff Schultz is making a strong bid, and I think Alzner could be Poti’s partner as a #3/4
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree on Schultz making such a bid. Eventually I’d like to see Schultz in 3/4 slot, but if ShaMo gets dealt then I think Sarge is the natural choice. He’s played well paired with Green some already.
Alzner would eventually be the choice as #2, but that’s at least a year or two down the road probably.
Ok, that is two pro – Schultz posts by me in one thread. Last week I had made it to the fence separating the camps after much time in the “anti” camp. This week I’m making it official, I’ve joined the fan club.
A man gotta have a code
Who wouldn't look good with Green?
A slow-footed, brutal-with-the-puck, dull-minded, inconsistent player.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
And then another trade for Garnett Exelby.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
If anything I would think Shamo’s draft position works against him: there are higher expectations for first rounders and thus most people are more critical of them.
Either way, I don’t think the draft status matters at all in this conversation. Neither player was drafted by the Caps and they are so far removed from their draft that it is not even the least bit relevant.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Oct 30, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If both are statistically even, I think the tie breaker goes to the guy who plays more physical (especially on a d-corp that lacks physicality, as pointed out above). Therefore edge goes to Juice.
Besides, we all know ShaneMo is his best next to Green so by trading him away we know his play will drop a bit (compared to Juice who may explode).
I disagree – for me it comes down to skating, and that’s why I prefer Mo. That and Juice’s occasional gouge-out-your-eyes bad plays. I feel like ShaMo doesn’t do those as often, and when he does melt down with big penalties, he usually extracts a pound of flesh.
I must admit though, I was shocked by the stats simply because I feel like I’ve noticed Mo making more good plays this year. It’s a closer call for me than I thought.
by grapejoos on Oct 30, 2009 7:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Juice is playing great right now, so given their salaries he’s the choice right now. Of course if he slows down and Mo doesn’t, well, he becomes less of an asset to want to hold on to (and, of course, less trade value).
The biggest knock against Juice around these parts seems to have been his lack of PK ability, which he’s got right now. I still maintain that Mo has an equal (or close to equal) propensity for making unbelievably bad decisions with the puck as Juice does, and he makes more so in my eyes he’s the obvious one to send out.
Ask again in a month and maybe things change dramatically of course.
Trade Value
Paradoxically, your logic would suggest that we should actually hold onto Mo, and trade Juice, since Juice would bring more in return right now. Better stats+smaller cap hit=more return.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
by D'ohboy on Oct 30, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m really shocked by those numbers. Juice getting much more SH time and being much more effective at it? Green and Poti both kill penalties pretty well, so I don’t think pairing-mate makes huge amounts of difference here.
When I saw the poll come up, I was ready to pull the handle next to Mo’s name. Now I’m not so sure. I want to read more before I vote. This is a definite case of the stats making me question what my eyes have been telling me.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
Yeah, the numbers surprised me a bit as well. Perhaps it’s showcasing Juice. Perhaps it’s just playing the better player (or at least the player who’s playing better)…
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Thats against the spirit of the game Gould. You answer the poll based on your initial impression and then you either feel vindicated, or regretful based on everyone’s comments. Thinking about an internet poll… please!
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
If you had asked me this question before last season, I would have said Morrisonn hands down, but by both stats and when I have watched them both play since then, I am definitely in the Jurcina camp now. I am as surprised as anyone how well Juice comes off objectively, but now I’m wondering if I should be.
I do agree, however, that Mo is a better fit with Green, but I think Schultz or Sloan could fill that role.
Also, Mo has spent about 90% of his TOI next to Mike Green. Greener has 10 points and is +5. There’s really no excuse for Mo to have only 2 points and be only +2. Those are frankly ugly stats for him.
Is there room on the Juice bandwagon? My eyes have been telling me that Mo has been playing pretty well, but it seems my eyes have been mistaken.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
I think you’re a bit harsh on Mo there – a ~+15 pace would be pretty ok.
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a ~+15 pace would be pretty ok.
In my opinion, not next to Green it wouldn’t. Not given how often the rest of the young guns are out there with Green (and by extension Mo). Not if Green paces out to +30 or better next to him.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Fewer than 20 D were better than +15 last year, but I hear you.
The number that shocked me was the SH/TOI. When I was about to say, “Yeah, but he’s playing tough minutes on the PK, so I cut him a little more slack at ES…” well, it’s just not the case.
That said, I do think Mo is more solid and that while Juice’s start has been fantastic, I’d like to see it extend a bit before I’m sold.
One other note: I didn’t point it out in the post, but Juice’s durability has to count for something here.
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Durability, yes. Very underrated quality.
Looking at you, Flash and Fehr.
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
And Balanced?
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 30, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s taking massive quantities of pain killers right now in preparation for being at the game tonight.
Exactly. My brother is here now. We’ll be at the game together. I’ll be Smokey the Bear in a Caps jersey. He’ll be Green Man in a Caps jersey.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
I was an iron man until recently.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
So you’re going to get traded to the Caps and have a pretty good start to next season?
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
I’m going to show up for camp in the best shape of my life.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Rob Parker on Oct 30, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Green’s job isn’t to pass it to Mo, or involve Mo in the offense. It’s to get the puck to the forwards or do something with it himself. Unless Mo passes the puck to Green and then Green scores or rushes the whole ice and gets the primary A Mo isn’t going to get many points. And that’s fine. He’s not supposed to be involved in the offense. Also, without having looked, how many of Green’s points are on the PP, when Mo isn’t on the ice.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
True, but
You’d think that:
A) his +/- would be a little better, given the guys he plays with, and
B) He’d occasionally get one of those “I happened to touch the puck before someone more talented than me scored” – type assists.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
True, but
You’d think that:
…
B) He’d occasionally get one of those "I happened to touch the puck before someone more talented than me scored" – type assists.
Hey, no need to drag Poti and Pothier into this.
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B) is such a poor argument. You’re essentially arguing chance as a reason ShaMo should have better stats.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
How about borderline competence? Yeah, I expect more out of any NHL defenseman than 2 points and +2 at this point in the season in that situation. Even if offense is not your strength, just through adequate passing you should have more than 2 assists with the young guns surrounding you. And your +/- should be higher.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Usually not his responsibility to start the break-out, and the Youngin’s score a lot on transition, soo.. kinda makes sense.
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
I’m not asking a lot here. But how about a little more than nothing?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m on the Juice side, I’m just trying to refute an argument that I don’t see to be really substantial.
Trade him because when he flips a coin it’s always heads? It’s too much left to chance to say “he should have some more points just because.”
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
In my view
It’s an indication of just how much he relies on Green to do all the puck-work for him. Two years ago, I think ShaMo used to cover for Green’s weaknesses. I don’t think the relationship is nearly so equal anymore.
I'm trying to work out a deal with a club in Europe
Yeah. If I played with Green, I’d give him the puck too.
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
And I’d bet it’s not just Shamo that realizes he should give Green the puck. I’d bet coaching plays a part. But yeah, kill the guy because the coach thinks he’s the most worth of playing top pair minutes.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
2 isn't "a little more than nothing"?
By definition, I think it is.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
to his credit, Mo has almost perfected the ‘dive from behind and swat at the puck of the opposing fast break’ due to playing next to green. Nothing statistical, just an observation :)
But has he mastered the Potislide?
Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.
What’s that, going down to block a shot and deflecting it past your goalie? In OT? Of a playoff game?
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by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he meant getting the puck on the backhand during a PK situation and sliding it to the point-man instead of flipping it out of the zone.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice call. Fucking Poti. </scottyhockey’d>
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I prefer this Great Misdirect
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Oct 30, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’d prefer he perfect “not letting the fast break happen to begin with”
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW (i.e., nothing):
20. Shaone Morrisonn
…
24. Milan Jurcina
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So did Fernando Pisani. One good playoff does not a good personnel decision make. That said, I’d rather have Juice at 1.3 mil than ShaMo at 1.9 when we’re this close to the cap.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Or course, if Nylander’s moved out it becomes moot and I think the odds of Nylander getting moved out are very high.
The proximity to the cap becomes less of a concern but 600K is still 600K. Isn’t that about what the Pens paid Guerin for the rental last year?
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
Yeah, but his cap hit was much higher than that, wasn’t that the reason they had to stash Miro Satan in the AHL until the playoffs rolled around?
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm. The cap hit isn’t prorated? Interesting.
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
The cap is pro-rated, which is part of the reason getting rid of Nyls is a big deal. Even if you move him halfway through the season you open up 2.44 million in cap space, which means you can add (annual) $8.5M+ with that space.
Waitwaitwaitwait, if you trade someone at the deadline you can take on massively more money even if they’ve been playing in the NHL all season? That just seems strange to me. The way I parse what you say, we could ditch the Nyls contract and trade for a guy like Kovalchuk and still fit in under the cap.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
But that also assumes you’re banking cap space all the while (i.e. no one on LTIR putting you over the cap).
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Wow, that radically redefines my understanding of deadline moves.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 30, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you get to 8.5?
4.8 for Nyls current annual hit plus the 2.4 that is remaining for this current year.
"I think the relentless negative coverage in The Washington Post is a real difference from previous years," Redskins general counsel David Donovan said. "But in terms of the way our actual fans are behaving, we don't see any difference."
I took Nylander’s cap hit and halved it to get to $2.44M in available space. Then I just estimated when the trade deadline was and multiplied that number by 3.5 (since the deadlines generally a little less than 3/4 of the way through the season); 2.44 * 3.5 = 8.54.
I pick ShaMo. I always think of him as the more skilled defenseman, while Juice is the more physical one. But it looks as if so far this season, Morrisonn of the Shaone variety (as Joe Beninati would say) is leading in hits and blocked shots.
Speaking of ShaMo, he looked much less like a 10-year-old kid with that playoff beard.
"My face is my mask."
Assuming Mo and Juice a pretty close in terms of their defensive ability, Morrison has probably shown us what his upside is and no matter what he does, he will never have Juice’s cannon.
If Juice learns how to use that shot, his upside is much higher than Morrison. He’s shown us that he can improve his game, so I am going to believe that he can become better at using his shot so I like him him long term over SM.
With Green locked up, Schultz cost-controlled, Poti and Erskine under contract for one more year, and Carlson and Alzner knocking on the door in Hershey, are either really in the long-term plans?
I think either one can play himself into long-term (i.e. beyond this year) plans, but neither is a “must-keep” at the moment.
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I think one of the two are in the long-term plan. GMGM is just waiting for that guy to prove it to the team.
by Moonage Daydream on Oct 30, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t vote for either. One has been more consistent over the years, the other has more upside and is cheaper. Jury is still out in my mind.
I’ve been quite happy with Juice’s play since he truly got inserted into lineup after Erskine went down. I was also happy with his play last postseason as well. If he stays away from holding guys he’s an asset. When he’s playing confident he lets go of his boomer more. That heavy shot needs to be unleashed more, especially when his teammates start playing fancy hockey.
ShaMo, minus whatever was bothering him last season, has always been the steady guy. He’s the guy at the end of the night you barely remember playing and then check out his TOI stats and are surprised. He does the little stuff defensively so MG can do his thing. I might add some of Juice’s best days as a Caps were when paired with ShaMo right after he arrived.
I’m not for moving either unless there is a good reason. Obviously cap space is a good one, but that alone isn’t enough in my mind. Come playoff time I’d probably prefer either in the lineup than Alzner or Carlson unless a trade happens soon and the young guy gets over half a season of NHL games in.
A man gotta have a code
F&B — Just curious — do you think (a) Juice has been playing well this year, but he’s bound to revert to form soon, or (b) Juice has actually been playing poorly this year, but he’s had good luck so his numbers look good.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
(a)
so hard (a). And my childish sense of vindication will laugh haughtily when Juice turns back into a pumpkin.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
Fair enough. I buy your consistency argument to a point — I don’t want to rely on Juice because you don’t know who he’ll be a week or a month later. But I don’t buy the consistency argument as a reason to support ShaMo, who’s been consistently pretty bad the last couple of years. I’d rather the team dump them both.
Wally Pipp was a pretty good player, but that team got much better when Lou Gehrig stepped in. Time to ship both Juice and Mo out, and see what we’ve got in Carlznerson.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 31, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree at all, but that wasn’t an option. If I’m a coach and I need to set a lineup with Shamo or Juice I’d rather have Shamo because, while the ceiling may be lower, I know what he’s going to give me. It’s hard to set a lineup when you have to gamble on whether it’s going to be “good Juice” or “bad Juice.” Bad Juice is barely a 6, good Juice is a 4. You risk putting a 6 in a 4 slot if you go with Juice. Shamo is ideally a 4/5 on a Cup team, and you can basically always put him there and know what he’ll give you. I’d definitely like to see Alzner come up and get his growing pains out now, but that wasn’t on the poll.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 3:26 AM EST)
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