Jose Theodore: More Than a Hot Streak?

by David Getz on Oct 30, 2009 11:46 AM EDT

Amid the early season inconsistencies that the Capitals have encountered so far, there has been one constant (well, other than you-know-who): the play of goaltender Jose Theodore, who says he's feeling better and seeing the puck better than at any other point since the lockout.

Talk, of course, is one thing. But how does his production in this young season compare to other post-lockout hot streaks?

To find the answer we went back through Theodore's game logs for the last four seasons, looking to see how the netminder had performed when he was 'locked in'. The criteria were pretty simple, and designed to replicate the 2009-10 season: seven consecutive starts were considered (we threw out his relief appearance because, really, that's completely different ballgame). Theo's best seven-start stretches of the past four-plus seasons:

	Team	MIN	W	L	OTL	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
1/15/08 - 2/6/08	COL	403	4	2	1	1.64	190	179	.942	1
10/1/09 - 10/27/09	WSH	393	3	2	1	2.29	201	186	.925	0
3/6/08 - 3/20/08	COL	396	3	4	0	2.12	181	167	.923	1
11/11/06 - 12/2/06	COL	381	2	4	0	2.36	193	178	.922	0
2/18/08 - 3/4/08	COL	431	5	2	0	2.23	201	185	.920	0
1/17/09 - 2/05/09	WSH	421	4	2	1	2.42	212	195	.920	0
3/5/09 - 3/17/09	WSH	402	4	2	1	2.24	185	170	.919	0

As you can see, the numbers stack up quite well with other seven game stretches (and on a side note, 1.64/.942? Wow.) So far Theo certainly looks like he's putting his money where his mouth is.

It'd be easy to look at the numbers, turn on our inner cynic, and dismiss Theodore's 2009-10 performance as just another one of his trademark hot streaks which, to be fair, it very well may be. But the fact that Theo came out of camp looking good and sounding determined, that this seven game stretch encapsulates all his starts this season rather than just his best stretch, that he's had only one game with a sub-.900 save percentage and no real stinkers hint that maybe his hot start is, well, more than just a hot start.

Realistically Theodore's never again going to be the guy who posted a .931 save percentage and won the 2002 Hart Trophy. But he has the skill to be one of the league's better starting goaltenders and, although this season is still very young, it looks it might be one where Theo lives up to his potential.

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Comments

Totally misread the title as “More Than a Hot Steak?”

"My face is my mask."

by Jake Shapiro on Oct 30, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

He’s earning his pile of money.

Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.

by jordanDC on Oct 30, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions

So what time are Tuvan and Pepper’s post coming today? I believe BP or someone else mentioned the prolific nature of posts now appearing here. They weren’t kidding. I can’t keep up today.

A man gotta have a code

by Carl Putnam on Oct 30, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t care if he posts a save percentage of .931 or .139, just so long as he is locked in for two months starting in mid-April.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Oct 30, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

If he posts a .139, he’ll be locked in the press box for two months starting in mid-April,

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless he changes his jersey number to 14.

A man gotta have a code

by Carl Putnam on Oct 30, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

But that’s Flash’s num…

Ohhhhhhh

Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.

by jordanDC on Oct 30, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I looked out this morning and Semyon was gone
Coach called “Jose” to start the game
I lost myself in a familiar groove
I closed my eyes and I made the save

It’s more than a hot streak
(More than a hot streak)
My game’s the way I used to play
(More than a hot streak)
The puck, I am seeing
(More than a hot streak)
’Til it hits me and bounces away
I see the puck bouncing awa-aaaaaa-aaaay

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Another reason to hate Boston

though I do admit to listening the album as a wee lad – my, uh brother, no, my uncool dad bought it, yeah, that’s it!

by S h a g g y on Oct 30, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

RIP, Brad Delp.

by Stephen Pepper on Oct 30, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

IS PAЯTY NOW

by EmilyB on Oct 30, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

When Jose’s playing well, he’s on the Neuvirth end of the goalie athleticism/activity scale. When he’s playing poorly, he’s at the Varlamov end.

He has looked “quiet” to me all season. Square to the puck. Efficient.

With that said, Theo has also had more than his share of luck. That luck will regress to the mean. He’s due for some bad games just because of bad breaks. I wouldn’t get too excited yet, and I wouldn’t get too down on him when the fluke goals inevitably start going in instead of ringing iron.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Oct 30, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

I commented on the efficiency of Theo’s play and his sound positioning to Mr. B last night. It’s very apparent when watching super athletic (or spazztic…) Varly.

by RedBirdie on Oct 30, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

He may play well all year – I certainly hope he does. And the team may come to feel that they can trust him to play well.

But as fans, we all know that even if he puts up a .931 SV% in the regular season, we won’t feel comfortable with him standing between the pipes until he’s standing between the pipes with a Cup over his head.

by Grunthos on Oct 30, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

“Shut up, haters,” – Both Theo n’ Sarge this season.
“…” – Haters.
“Yeah, that’s right.” – Theo n’ Sarge

by thebigfoist on Oct 30, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

Don’t tweet that

by red army line on Oct 30, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Great data to ponder. It’s interesting that most of his other great stretches came much later in the season, which lends even more towards what Theo is saying about his game right now. The other aspect of these figures that I wonder about is how the two different teams that were playing in front of him compare. While I don’t remember much about the 06-08 Avs, I’m guessing that the current Caps systems leave him exposed to a greater degree than those teams did.

by jpbryant on Oct 30, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

Avs played a more defensive system especially 2nd half of that season.

Below are some numbers for comparison via BTN -

In 2007-08 Avs were giving up 27.1 SOG/60 5 on 5.
In 2009-10 season Caps are giving up 32.1 SOG/60 5 on 5.

I realize that shots on goal even strength is only one stat, but I do feel it is telling.

A man gotta have a code

by Carl Putnam on Oct 30, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Theo, no longer “JT60”, will suck again. You will hate him again before the season is over. His rough spots are gonna come.

Please be aware of that inevitability.

That said, I still think the job is and should be his.

by Stonewarden on Oct 30, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

Hate’s a strong word. I’m not sure how many people here have ever “hated” him. I know I never have. There’s only one current or former Cap I’d even consider using the word “hate” for, and he’s over in Russia gambling or drinking or something.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, Kozzie wasn’t THAT bad.

Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.

by jordanDC on Oct 30, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Don’t be ridiculous, he’s obviously talking about Joel Kwiatkowski.

by David Getz on Oct 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, you’re right, but you know what I’m saying.

Or perhaps not…

…You’re going to be disappointed, in that special way that Theo can disappoint.

by Stonewarden on Oct 30, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Empty gift box on my birthday?

Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.

by jordanDC on Oct 30, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

While he’s sitting there, playing with the toy that was in the the box.

It happened to me once. Although it wasn’t Jose, it was just some kid at my Birthday party.

by Stonewarden on Oct 30, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Is that why you’re so bitter about Jose?

Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.

by jordanDC on Oct 30, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

You know, I don’t know why I’m bitter, but I should explain myself. (briefly)

I think Jose is our go-to guy, I thought so last year and his eviction after game 1 vs New York bothered me.

So when I hear the Jose rah-rah stuff, I can only anticipate the venom when he sucks.

I’m not into the “hot-hand” approach to the goalie situation really, unless a guy underperforms consistently. I like a little loyalty there, a little faith. I have that luxury, as a fan.

by Stonewarden on Oct 30, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I hear you – he’s a streaky goalie and will likely have a cold streak to match this one. It’s all a matter of when the streaks hit, of course, that’s the difference between many Cup winning goalies and punchlines.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The inches we need are everywhere around us…

by Stonewarden on Oct 30, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 30, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Very very interesting. According to Mirtle, our little Jose is the best Canadian-born goalie in the NHL. While he doesn’t have faith, let me be the first to bust out Theo for Olympics!

(well, not really, I don’t believe Theo’s getting anywhere close to Vancouver, besides on Dec. 18.)

by RedBirdie on Oct 30, 2009 6:17 PM EDT reply actions