It's obvious, Ovechkin can't or won't play defense.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 2:47 PM EDT
35 comments
Ok, not really.
I was looking at the NHL stats page, just wondering where Backstrom ranked in points after his 4 point night. For those that are curious, tied for 7th in the league.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/app?component=completePointLeadersList&page=statshome&service=direct
Anyway, while I was scanning the chart, there was a number that jumped out at me. The number 11. The number that is 37.5% better than the next best number in this column, 8. And yeah, I know that +/- is the worst stat in hockey. Regardless, when Ovechkin is on the ice, excluding the PP, the Caps score more goals than the opposition at a 37.5% better rate than any of the other top 13 (after a quick check, actually better than the entire first page of 30) goal scorers. And compared to some of the others, it's a much better rate than that (of course, that is where +/- becomes a weak stat, you can't compare Nash at Columbus to the high flying Caps).
Maybe it's just me, but I feel like there actually might be a little defensive responsibility being executed by our top line. Either that, or offense really is the best defense in this instance, and they are just flat out outscoring everyone handily.
| <!-- column headers --> <!-- sortable, unsorted --> | Player | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted --> <!-- unsortable -->Team | <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->Pos | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->GP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->G | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->A | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sorted -->P | <!-- sortable, unsorted -->+/- | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->ESP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->SHP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->PPP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->HmP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->RdP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->DvP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->ODvP | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- sortable, unsorted -->P/G | <!-- unsortable --> <!-- sorted --> <!-- stats rows -->
| 1 | Anze Kopitar | LAK | C | 12 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 1.75 |
| 2 | Alex Ovechkin | WSH | L | 11 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 19 | 1.73 |
| 3 | Marian Gaborik | NYR | R | 12 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 1.50 |
| 4 | Joe Thornton | SJS | C | 12 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1.42 |
| 5 | Patrick Marleau | SJS | C | 12 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 1.33 |
| 6 | Vinny Prospal | NYR | C | 12 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1.33 |
| 7 | Dustin Penner | EDM | R | 12 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1.25 |
| 8 | Dany Heatley | SJS | L | 12 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 1.25 |
| 9 | Ryan Smyth | LAK | L | 12 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1.25 |
| 10 | Rick Nash | CBJ | R | 10 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -2 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 1.50 |
| 11 | Henrik Sedin | VAN | C | 12 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1.25 |
| 12 | Nicklas Backstrom | WSH | C | 11 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 1.36 |
| 13 | Rene Bourque | CGY | L | 10 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -1 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1.40 |
| 14 | Alexander Semin | WSH | L | 9 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 1.44 |
| 15 | Evgeni Malkin | PIT | C | 11 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 1.18 |
| 16 | Brad Richards | DAL | C | 9 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 1.44 |
| 17 | Martin St Louis | TBL | R | 9 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1.44 |
| 18 | Wojtek Wolski | COL | L | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1.00 |
| 19 | James Neal | DAL | L | 11 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1.09 |
| 20 | Zach Parise | NJD | L | 9 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 1.33 |
| 21 | Ales Kotalik | NYR | R | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.00 |
| 22 | Michael Cammalleri | MTL | L | 11 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 1.09 |
| 23 | Michael Del Zotto | NYR | D | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 1.00 |
| 24 | Paul Stastny | COL | C | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.00 |
| 25 | Dustin Brown | LAK | L | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1.00 |
| 26 | Daniel Alfredsson | OTT | R | 9 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.33 |
| 27 | Ales Hemsky | EDM | R | 11 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 1.09 |
| 28 | Dan Boyle | SJS | D | 12 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1.00 |
| 29 | Steven Stamkos | TBL | C | 9 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.22 |
| 30 | Mike Richards | PHI | C | 10 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1.10 |
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Further to that,this.
Related: Go Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Oct 28, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You just couldn’t resist mucking up a good argument with minimal factual and meaninful stats with a stats page that actually means something. /snark
On a related note, it actually took me a minute to figure out what you were looking at there…go go wall of numbers. Has anyone actually put up a cheat sheet for that site for us statistical and hockey noobs?
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTN is on SBNation now, so I think the newer side of it may have something, but I’ve just had a lot of free time.
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Oct 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is an FAQ he posted a couple weeks ago on his SBN blog. It explains some of the more complicated stuff and is pretty helpful.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 29, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You know, I remember when this faq was linked here originally. I thought it looked interesting and even bookmarked it. Forgot it was there. Thanks for reminding me.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 29, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My pleasure. Consider me a BTN disciple. Always happy to spread the word.
"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 29, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of what’s going on right now is the ESP and PPP columns. Ovechkin has relatively few points on the power play, while Kopitar and Thornton have nearly twice as many. Obviously, ES points help your +/-, and power play points don’t. So Ovechkin’s +/- is benefiting from the fact that such a high proportion of his offense has so far come ES. That ratio will balance out some as the power play improves.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 28, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ok, fine, I can buy that. But then it puts to rest that Ovechkin and company only score on the PP. Or has that argument been put to rest long ago?
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The ratio may balance out, but if he keeps scoring 5 on 5 like this he’ll continue to have a great plus/minus and he’ll probably run away with the goals/points lead.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Oct 28, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The assumption here is that there’s some amount of tradeoff of PP points for ES points, which I don’t really think is the case. In fact, as the PP gets more effective, there should be even more ES opportunities, since the boys will start converting and spend less time on the PP per call.
What that basically says is what F&B did – if the PP starts clicking and he can keep anything like what he’s doing at 5 on 5, he’s going to obliterate the competition for both points and goals. No one else will even be close.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 28, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As true as this is, there is less of a fire under you to score at even strength if you’ve already got points on the board.
Not saying that he’d take a shift off just because they’re ahead or because he scored a PPG in the game, but a little of that might play into it.
by snowburnt on Oct 29, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, and change top 30 goal scorers to top 30 point scorers. Understanding own stats fail.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i’m such a sucker for a good headline tease. rec’d.
in case you’re curious: why obama is like a serial killer.
by Natty Bumppo on Oct 28, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Although if you look at just goal scorers, the numbers are pretty much the same. Go figure.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is interesting, and bodes well for AO to stay on/near the top once the PP picks up. I’m not really sure it’s because Ovie is playing great D though, so much as that he is on fire and Semin/Backstrom have been filling up the box score whenever they play with him. In fact I seem to recall a post here pointing out that the SOB line was allowing a lot of shots.
When it comes to Ovie, the best defense is a good offense, especially one that owns the puck like his line tends to do. That’s not to say he can’t or won’t play D.
by grapejoos on Oct 28, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does the fact that AO is never on a PK keep his +/- higher than for the others? Since he’s never on the ice when the other team scores a PP goal.
IS PAЯTY NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Oct 28, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You don’t get a minus when you give up a PPG.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Oct 28, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, thanks.
IS PAЯTY NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Oct 28, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but you DO get a – if the other team scores short handed while you’re on the ice
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Oct 28, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or a + if you score a SHG…but for the Caps I’d think that there’d be more -s from shorties allowed than +s from shorties scored. We’re no Philly on the PK.
by red army line on Nov 1, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
71. And then hopefully about 25 or so
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 28, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think Icebat meant for 50 in 50. I’m assuming you aren’t advocating for 82 goals this year in the regular season?
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey one can dream……
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Oct 28, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wellllll….if we are going to dream…
Ovechkin has five 2 goal games, and just one 1 goal game this year. Only scoring one goal is obviously an aberration.
He also has as many 2 goal games as he does zero goal games. So, since we have to assume that only scoring 1 goal is unusual for him, if we can get him to stop taking games off and not scoring, we might really be on to something.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 28, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But if he scores two goals every game, all we’ll hear about is how the team doesn’t have any secondary scoring.
Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood...Make big plans, aim high in hope and work. - Daniel H. Burnham
Fan Clubs: Sloan, Schultz
by gotsparkly on Oct 29, 2009 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s fine. It’s a contract year for JT60. He’ll keep putting up 2.47 .922 and we won’t need much secondary scoring.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 29, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, I meant 71 games. And then 25 or so more games. Regular season means Rocket.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 29, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One goal lead on Philly, at home with a minute to go and an empty net, what line did BB put out?
Carebears.
by FFSEnough on Oct 29, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“get an insurance goal, boys. And do not let Philly score a goal if you ever want to hug your mother again.”
by RedBirdie on Oct 29, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus/Minus is not the worst stat in hockey at all (hits probably is, since it’s subjective). What folks have to do is study Plus/Minus in the context of where the plusses and minuses were earned. Suppose we have two players, one named Joe and one named Bartholomew (or Bart, for short). Let’s say they both ended last season with a decent +/- rating of +7.
Now from that, who’s better defensively? They might be the same… well how about we add this:
Joe’s team’s record: 51-26-5 – 108 points
Bart’s team’s record: 28-45-9 – 65 points
Based on that, which of the two might have had a shot to lead their team in +/-? Joe went +7 on a team that probably won their division and got a nice playoff seeding. Bart’s vacation started on April 15th, although he went +7 as well. One could argue Bart was a better defensive player due to the context.
Ovechkin is +11 this season, which is great. The Caps have been playing well and he is getting a lot of points even strength (the PP has not been good yet this year, when that gets back to normal, we’re going to see some astonishing numbers…). It’s not just Ovie outscoring folks. Part of the reason he does well in +/- is that his two linemates are terrific defensively (and he benefits), and the most steady defensive defenseman on the team is usually out there with him (ShaMo, Green’s partner).
Ovie is never going to win any defensive awards and he’ll never be on the PK unless there are 9 or 10 forwards in the box (I don’t want him blocking shots from the point, do you?) but he’s not a defensive slouch….
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Oct 29, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The problem with plus minus isn’t so much that different players have different chances to earn pluses and minuses, it’s that a lot of the time something they had nothing to do with gets credited to their record.
Hits versus plus-minus is interesting: objective but a questionable measure of impact versus subjective but obviously assigned to just the one guys. Ultimately I think the verdict is the same on each: you can probably use them to draw some very general conclusions if you account for context, but neither has a ton of value.
by David M. Getz on Oct 29, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we’re saying the same thing here. Context is everything, especially with a subjective stat like hits. In a single game, the context is the same, but from one game to another, it can be very different depending on what the guy scoring hits thinks is a “hit” (leave it to the NHL to not define is explicitly).
And while it’s true that in different situations, players can have plusses or minuses stuck on them for reasons that are not their own fault (giving up a 170 foot goal to Jeff Schultz for example), there are occasions when the goalie also bails them out from taking a minus.
While it’s not the best statistic, it does provide information, as do all statistics, and then using them all, we can come up with a profile of a given player….
If someone is interested in how statistics work in sports, they should read some of Bill James’ writing on baseball statistics. Sure, he writes about baseball, but his general concepts work for all sports (maybe other than football).
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Oct 29, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with everything said. This post was really just kind of a snark. However, I think #8 has been a bit more defensively minded than in past years, at times. In the last game, I distinctly remember him coming down past the circles in our defensive zone to help a defender get the puck out of the zone past the opposing player. Not making that kind of play was a huge issue last year, especially against the Pens. I think it still needs to happen more often (as a whole, not just Ovechkin) but I think it is getting better. Making plays that clear the puck from your zone definitely will help your +/-.
by HateOffSeason on Oct 29, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why Mark Streit probably should’ve been a Norris nominee (or at least 4th) last season. +8 on an atrocious Islanders squad.
by red army line on Nov 1, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Washington
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|
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Carolina
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21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 8:36 AM EST)
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