FanPost

On Penalty Kill Rankings


As promised, (and just in time for the post lunch slacking) I've compiled similar statistics for penalty kills as I did for power plays (note: the PP statistics will be be updated to include games through 10/26 soon).

Again, the idea is that keeping track of mere occurrences is a fairly coarse metric of penalty killing efficiencies (PK%).  Instead, I determine rankings by the number of goals against per 2 minute short handed situation (PK G/2; thanks F&B!).  I argue that this is a better metric because if two teams both allow goals on every power play, but one allows them in the first 30 seconds and the other in the last 30 seconds, the second team should have a higher ranking, even if the end result is the same.  Also, teams get more credit for killing 5 minute majors in my system, as a full kill essentially counts as 2.5 kills, while under the old system it only counts as 1.  Likewise, for my whipping boy play, the 9 minute PP the Caps had vs Calgary last year gave the Flames a perfect 3/3 for killing 7 minutes of penalties.  That is the same 3/3 they would have had if the Caps remained ineffective and Nylander had not taken a minor.  In my system they effectively killed 3.5 penalties in the game situation.  They would have had 4.5 had the Caps not evened up the teams.

When looking at the numbers from the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons, we see that the old metric (PK/G (NHL)) tends to overestimate the number of short handed situations before a goal is given up (PK/G) by around 1.  For teams with better PK units it overestimates by far more than one.  I have included the number of goals allowed per 60 minutes of short handed time as well (PK G/60) because, while it is a mere scaling of PK G/2, I find it more readable.

For comparison to a rather well understood season, here are the data for 2008-2009:



Old Stats New Stats
Rank Team PK GA PKs PK/G (NHL) PK% Rank (NHL) Min/PK PK/G (New) PK G/60 PK G/2
1 Minnesota Wild 36 291 8.08 87.63 2 01:42 6.90 4.35 0.1449
2 New York Rangers 40 329 8.23 87.84 1 01:38 6.73 4.46 0.1485
3 St. Louis Blues 58 357 6.16 83.75 3 01:38 5.06 5.93 0.1977
4 Calgary Flames 58 349 6.02 83.38 4 01:39 4.97 6.04 0.2013
5 Los Angeles Kings 62 362 5.84 82.87 7 01:40 4.90 6.12 0.2041
6 Philadelphia Flyers 67 393 5.87 82.95 6 01:38 4.81 6.24 0.2078
7 San Jose Sharks 51 304 5.96 83.22 5 01:35 4.76 6.31 0.2103
8 Pittsburgh Penguins 60 348 5.80 82.76 8 01:37 4.73 6.34 0.2113
9 Florida Panthers 54 311 5.76 82.64 9 01:37 4.69 6.40 0.2132
10 Nashville Predators 59 338 5.73 82.54 10 01:37 4.66 6.43 0.2144
11 Boston Bruins 54 307 5.69 82.41 12 01:37 4.63 6.48 0.2161
12 Columbus Blue Jackets 62 346 5.58 82.08 13 01:36 4.49 6.69 0.2229
13 Ottawa Senators 64 346 5.41 81.50 15 01:38 4.44 6.76 0.2254
14 Montreal Canadiens 65 370 5.69 82.43 11 01:33 4.42 6.79 0.2263
15 Buffalo Sabres 61 336 5.51 81.85 14 01:35 4.39 6.84 0.2280
16 Vancouver Canucks 69 371 5.38 81.40 16 01:34 4.24 7.08 0.2359
17 Carolina Hurricanes 59 301 5.10 80.40 18 01:36 4.10 7.32 0.2439
18 Chicago Blackhawks 64 324 5.06 80.25 19 01:36 4.06 7.40 0.2466
19 New Jersey Devils 65 324 4.99 79.94 20 01:37 4.04 7.42 0.2474
20 Anaheim Ducks 78 385 4.94 79.74 23 01:38 4.04 7.43 0.2476
21 Washington Capitals 75 387 5.16 80.62 17 01:33 4.04 7.43 0.2477
22 Colorado Avalanche 64 318 4.97 79.87 21 01:36 3.99 7.51 0.2504
23 New York Islanders 73 361 4.95 79.78 22 01:35 3.95 7.60 0.2535
24 Dallas Stars 70 326 4.66 78.53 24 01:40 3.90 7.69 0.2562
25 Detroit Red Wings 70 324 4.63 78.40 25 01:35 3.69 8.13 0.2708
26 Edmonton Oilers 76 338 4.45 77.51 27 01:37 3.60 8.32 0.2774
27 Tampa Bay Lightning 89 405 4.55 78.02 26 01:34 3.58 8.38 0.2793
28 Atlanta Thrashers 88 366 4.16 75.96 29 01:34 3.26 9.20 0.3067
29 Phoenix Coyotes 68 292 4.29 76.71 28 01:30 3.24 9.25 0.3084
30 Toronto Maple Leafs 78 308 3.95 74.68 30 01:33 3.07 9.76 0.3255

The data through October 26, 2009 for the 2009-2010 season is here:



Old Stats New Stats
Rank Team PK GA PKs PK/G (NHL) PK% Rank (NHL) Min/PK PK/G (New) PK G/60 PK G/2
1 Minnesota Wild 4 38 9.50 89.47 2 01:48 8.58 3.50 0.1166
2 Ottawa Senators 4 39 9.75 89.74 1 01:41 8.24 3.64 0.1214
3 Atlanta Thrashers 5 36 7.20 86.11 4 01:41 6.11 4.91 0.1636
4 New York Rangers 8 59 7.38 86.44 3 01:34 5.79 5.18 0.1727
5 Colorado Avalanche 8 51 6.38 84.31 6 01:40 5.36 5.60 0.1866
6 Philadelphia Flyers 6 41 6.83 85.37 5 01:31 5.21 5.76 0.1921
7 Chicago Blackhawks 6 37 6.17 83.78 7 01:39 5.10 5.88 0.1960
8 Washington Capitals 8 49 6.13 83.67 8 01:34 4.81 6.24 0.2081
9 New York Islanders 7 37 5.29 81.08 11 01:42 4.53 6.62 0.2207
10 Pittsburgh Penguins 9 50 5.56 82.00 10 01:37 4.50 6.67 0.2224
11 San Jose Sharks 9 50 5.56 82.00 9 01:35 4.43 6.77 0.2256
12 Vancouver Canucks 9 47 5.22 80.85 14 01:39 4.31 6.96 0.2319
13 Carolina Hurricanes 11 58 5.27 81.03 12 01:36 4.26 7.05 0.2350
14 Columbus Blue Jackets 8 42 5.25 80.95 13 01:34 4.13 7.27 0.2424
15 St. Louis Blues 8 40 5.00 80.00 15 01:37 4.08 7.36 0.2453
16 New Jersey Devils 7 34 4.86 79.41 16 01:34 3.81 7.87 0.2623
17 Buffalo Sabres 6 28 4.67 78.57 17 01:35 3.71 8.08 0.2694
18 Tampa Bay Lightning 9 39 4.33 76.92 20 01:36 3.48 8.61 0.2870
19 Edmonton Oilers 10 43 4.30 76.74 21 01:36 3.45 8.69 0.2896
20 Detroit Red Wings 8 35 4.38 77.14 19 01:31 3.32 9.03 0.3010
21 Dallas Stars 10 41 4.10 75.61 23 01:36 3.30 9.10 0.3034
22 Calgary Flames 10 42 4.20 76.19 22 01:33 3.26 9.20 0.3067
23 Montreal Canadiens 10 44 4.40 77.27 18 01:27 3.19 9.40 0.3132
24 Anaheim Ducks 11 44 4.00 75.00 26 01:35 3.18 9.42 0.3141
25 Boston Bruins 10 41 4.10 75.61 25 01:32 3.17 9.46 0.3153
26 Phoenix Coyotes 10 41 4.10 75.61 24 01:27 2.98 10.06 0.3354
27 Los Angeles Kings 14 50 3.57 72.00 29 01:38 2.92 10.26 0.3419
28 Nashville Predators 9 35 3.89 74.29 27 01:23 2.69 11.14 0.3713
29 Florida Panthers 11 40 3.64 72.50 28 01:26 2.62 11.45 0.3817
30 Toronto Maple Leafs 13 35 2.69 62.86 30 01:29 2.02 14.89 0.4963

In this data we see that while Ottawa has the highest ranked power play in the old metric, Minnesota is truely the dominant team.  And boy are they good.  Their penalty kills last a full 7 seconds longer, on average, than the next closest team, 14 seconds longer than the average, and 25 seconds (almost 1/4 of a PP) longer than the worst.  Additionally, while the old metric shows that they actually would allow a goal 30 seconds earlier than Ottawa, we see that they would actually last more than 30 seconds longer.  We also see how bad they Leafs penalty kill really is.  The Leafs are allowing goals at a rate of slightly less than 1 for every 2 full penalty kills.

As for the Caps (this being a Caps blog and me being a Caps fan, after all), they aren't too shabby given the relative lack of discipline.  They don't take a hard hit in the new metric (unlike the new power play metric).

I'll be updateing these stats as the season progresses.  When grad school gets out of the way for a few hours I will post everything on an external site, rather than cluttering fan posts with updates.

Next in the series will be a look at 5v3, 5v4, and 4v4 situations.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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