Capitals Ten Game Review
by Stephen Pepper on Oct 26, 2009 2:30 PM EDT
29 comments
Suddenly, Caps brothers and sisters, roughly one-eighth of the regular season is in the electronic books. October is almost through. (And I hope all of you attending the October 30th home game vs. the N.Y. Islanders have already carefully planned your Halloween get-ups.)
As we noted this morning in the Clips, Peerless looks at the forwards and the defensemen and goaltenders after ten games. Here we provide a overall team-oriented assessment. Ten games is an arbitrary milestone, but a lengthy enough period of competitive play to observe trends. So what do we find? Some developments positive and refreshing, and some in territory that seems all too familiar.
Here's ten for ten:
Scoring: anybody but Ovechkin? Early on, it was virtually all Alex Ovechkin and the top line of Nick Backstrom and Alexander Semin. But then there was the game in Atlanta last Thursday. And that Matt Bradley character broke out too, on a 25-goal season pace!
Kidding aside, fifteen of the Caps' 36 goals scored on the season have found the net from the stick of a "secondary" scorer. (In my view, secondary means not the Big Four or Mike Knuble.) And one of those Big Four, Mike Green, broke out offensively in a huge way on Saturday night, leaving the Islanders broadcast team awe-struck, giving effusive praise for Greenie's "Paul Coffey-like" rush to win the game in OT. He's closing in on a point-a-game pace.
What Mo can we ask of Brendan? Brendan Morrison has been a wonderful surprise so far this campaign, a near-perfect solution to the void at second-line center following the departure of Sergei Fedorov.
For now, his scoring pace is exceeding even my optimistic prediction of 20/30/50 for this season. He's healthy, and excited to play with a dynamic offensive squad again. When I chatted with B-Mo at the conclusion of training camp about comparing this Caps team to the earlier days of his career in Vancouver, on a line with Markus Naslund and Todd Bertuzzi, he said, "It's been a long time since I've played with guys with this much skill." He's proving quite capable of not only keeping up, but keeping the offensive engine running.
Give me a sweater, Coach. We knew it was going to be difficult to rotate eight healthy NHL defensemen through the line up over the course of a season. But not all of them are going to stay healthy. John Erskine has already missed four games due to injury. Shaone Morrisonn has also been ailing a bit thus far this season.
Here's how often each of the eight has played this season:
How do these numbers compare to last season? Green's getting about a minute and a half more ice per game; Schultz, about a minute and a half less (in the latter case, a reduction in ES ice only). Finally, Tyler Sloan is too seldom utilized, but too valuable to be exposed to waivers. Tough spot for the guy, but he's no doubt thrilled to be in the show for this long. Assistant Coach Bob Woods is deploying his troops, at least in terms of ice time, similar to how Jay Leach had last season.
Having eight defenseman on the active roster presents a considerable player management problem, but it also allows the coaching staff to play the healthiest six blueliners on a given night, or strategically select the three pairs on the basis of a particular opponent's strengths and weaknesses. When one or more of the eight is banged up, the decision to carry 8 D looks wise and prescient. But when (and if) all eight are healthy, it's a situation fraught with second-guessing and unhappy healthy scratches.
Net presence. These eyes have observed a modest improvement in creating traffic in front of the crease and scoring those "junk" goals from in tight, with or without the power play. We've seen half a dozen such goals in ten games from Chris Clark, Bradley, Knuble, and Brooks Laich.
Special teams. The power play has only converted 10 of 48 opportunities (16.7%) and, in that regard, is dearly missing Semin to create some space for others on the first unit. Otherwise, it's not entirely clear what is the trouble with the man-advantage. The team is averaging 63.9 S/G per 60 min of PP time this season, compared with 60.2 S/G per 60 last season.
As for the penalty kill, the Caps are 9th in the league, killing 39 of 49 penalties (83.7). So, adding the percentages together, the Caps are just over that magical 100.00 mark.
Stopping and starting, again. The Caps had, after grabbing a lead, allowed their opponents to tie the score in seven straight contests prior to Saturday's game on Long Island. There's been a bit of a tendency, continuing from last season, to let up off of the gas pedal in the third period. But on the flip side, they've come back five times from deficits this young season to tie the score (twice in the 10/6 game vs. the Flyers). Including Saturday's dramatic comeback, when it seemed that the Caps where in a collective fog befitting the humidity in Nassau Veterans Coliseum.
Discipline. It was a problem last season, and the drama continues (in fact, just search the Rink for "discipline" and you'll find quite a consistent pattern). The team finished tied for the sixth-most minor penalties last season, and is already tied for ninth-most this season, committing an average of 3.4 restraining fouls per game. That said, the team hasn't allowed a 5-on-3 opportunity yet. [ed.: The team was at a 5-on-3 disadvantage once this season, during the final minute of play at Altanta last Thursday, while it clung to a two, and then a one, goal lead.]
Though it may seem that the team has committed a disproportionate number of minor fouls in the later stages of matches, in fact just under one-third of the Caps' minor penalties to date (15 of 48) have occurred in the third frame. (And four of those by players not currently active: one by Boyd Kane and three by Boyd Gordon.)
Steady as she goes in getting it on net. Last season, the team averaged 33.5 S/G and allowed 29.5 SA/G. This season, they've averaged 30.5 S/G and allowed 29.5 SA/G this season. Also last season, the Caps averaged 11.2 blocked shots, and 8.3 missed shots, per game. This season, those figures are 11.0 and 5.8, respectively. Predictable from a team that is largely intact from 2008-09.
Face-offs. Team wide, Les Capitals are seventh in the league at 51.3% (dropping three spots, incidentally, just on account of Saturday's woeful performance at the circles). David Steckel is sixth in the league in FOW at 60.6% (67.1% at home) and Morrison, Laich, and Gordon are also all over 50% in FOW.
Backstrom, however, is still struggling, below even his sub-50% mark from last season, and continues to get tossed from the dot far too often.
Saturday night's Islanders game, hopefully, was an aberration, as the team was collectively schooled 7 out of 10 times on average, and won just one of sixteen faceoffs in the defensive zone. The faceoff leader for the Caps on Saturday, Morrison, only won 40% of his draws taken.
The new enforcement regime. Before the season, we asked whether the Caps needed a designated enforcer, following the departure of the imposing presence of Donald Brashear. The general consensus, of management and players (as well as Rink readers), was an emphatic "No." For what it's worth, it seemed to us that, at the Capitals Convention, the team was marketing Erskine as the replacement for Brashear, at least when necessary. But even he has been out of the lineup for half of the team's contests.
Prior to Saturday night's tilt, it seemed that the team was getting along OK without a singular presence on the bench to dispatch. Even in Philadelphia's home opener, where Bradley dropped 'em with Ian Laperriere early in the match, and that was about it for the rough stuff. However, Nate Thompson's knee-on-knee collision with Mike Green on Long Island had Caps Nation greatly concerned. Though Green said post-game, "I'm sure [Thompson] wasn't trying to hurt me," the Caps had no pointed rebuttal to Thompson's hit, other than an immediate scrum and some coarse language to poison Thompson's ear. DMG floated the possibility of a rental pugilist at some point in the near future. Brandon Sugden, anyone?
So, while there's some room for improvement (isn't there always?) the Capitals are on a 115-point pace and, still, Brooksy says "we'll be better." And goaltending has been of nightly interest (if not concern), and we'll look to address that separately in a future post.
Back to it tomorrow and chance to even the score against the Flyers.
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Great work as always, Pepper.
To my untrained eyes, the Caps are around the net a hell of a lot more than last year. Over on his blog, Ted made the following points:
Stats are great to analyze and to ponder but what stats can never measure is effort, heart, luck and subtle improvements and results.
What I think is different this year compared to last year is that we do have more players that are willing to crash the net – Ovechkin, Knuble, Laich, Clark, Bradley and Fehr. All seem to be parked near the crease more this year than in years past for our team. I think that is a key development come playoff time.
by cuqui on Oct 26, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
agree - crashing the net has improved so far this year. is it Knuble? is it preaching by BB? Knuble rubbing off on the others? A combo of the three?
Whatever it is, I’ll take it.
Hope we are winners tom. night!!!
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Oct 26, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of it is probably having a healthy Clark. He’s never been one to shy away from crashing the net. And while I think Knuble is certainly rubbing off on Fehr…I noticed Fehr crashing a bit more upon Clark’s return late last season.
by Yoshietree on Oct 26, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I highly enjoy your avatar, considering your username!
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Oct 26, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a coincidence that both Caps regulation goals were scored with a big body (Knuble, Ovechkin) crashing the net.
by Kirg on Oct 26, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great writing and analysis, nice work.
So who’s going to the game dressed as a Mike Milbury/Pierre McGuire tandem? Perhaps not scary, but I can’t think of a pair better suited for a little satire.
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 26, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
, Mike Green, broke out offensively in a huge way on Saturday night, leaving the Islanders broadcast team awe-struck, giving effusive praise for Greenie’s “Paul Coffey-like” rush to win the game in OT.
I hope we hear this on a regular basis from here on out……
Great read, Pepper. Thanks!
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Oct 26, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1) Nice read.
We’d say no to a designated brawler now or when the Isles return Friday. For one it only hurts a team like the Caps. Distracting them from ‘their game’. It would play into the hands of the Isles more so than the Caps. Not that the isles have too many who fight anyway. Their fans were asking a similar question when Garth Snow didn’t sign a resident enforcer (goon) like the cross town rangers did (Brashear)
I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else
by Fauxrumors on Oct 26, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The impact of bringing in a tough guy – just to show the Caps have one and they’re willing to use him – is something that could have repercussions beyond just that one game. As much as I hate using military analogies when it comes to sports, sometimes you risk losing the battle to win the war.
by David M. Getz on Oct 26, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t disagree with anything.
In general, I think they’ve not played their best hockey and I’m okay with that… if this is indicative of the points they will get during the periods of mediocre play that every team goes through during a season, they’re in for a very strong regular season and should themselves into the dangerous team we know they can be.
God kills a kitten every time Sidney whines.
by Chris meet Alex on Oct 26, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good read, although didn’t the Caps have a 5-on-3 (really a 6-on-3 with EN) against vs. the Thrashers?
by brs03 on Oct 26, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you are correct. Good catch.
by Stephen Pepper on Oct 26, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power play issues
Teams are killing the Caps’ power play aggressively, putting a lot of pressure on the guy with the puck – and they haven’t found a good answer for this (cleaner passes, anyone?). Dealing with this pressure has resulted in two serious problems:
1) The PP forwards (mainly Backstrom and Ovechkin) have been handling the aggressive pressure badly, forcing passes and losing possession too easily. This goes for passes into the zone and passes within the offensive zone during possession.
2) The defensemen handling the puck out of the Caps’ end are having difficulty making passes in the neutral zone (again, pressured) and have been making terrible decisions with puck dumps into the offensive zone as a result.
I’m not sure if Semin was helping matters much, but he was at least hustling to take pucks away on the backcheck, whereas Backstrom has just looks lazy on the backcheck during the powerplay.
by Hystricine on Oct 26, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We had this same problem last October. The problem seemed to vanish after a while.
Never lie, steal, cheat, or drink. But, if you must lie, lie in the arms of the one you love. If you must steal, steal away from bad company. If you must cheat, cheat death. If you must drink, drink in the moments that take your breath away.
by gotsparkly on Oct 26, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing to remember is that Backstrom is about 3/4 as fast as Semin, whom I’d say is ever-so-slightly slower than Ovechkin.
I agree that it didn’t look like a good effort (I think he’s probably ill – he doesn’t typically have bad games “in a row”), but I can’t honestly believe he was going to catch the guy, anyway.
by DrinkingPartner on Oct 26, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one of those Big Four, Mike Green, broke out offensively in a huge way on Saturday night, leaving the Islanders broadcast team awe-struck, giving effusive praise for Greenie’s “Paul Coffey-like” rush to win the game in OT.
You can watch/listen to the broadcasters gush at the video link here.
IS PAЯTY NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Oct 26, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And BTW, I watched the clip a couple of times before I realized that wasn’t Koken and Locker making that call and sounding all impressed, but the Islanders’ broadcasters.
IS PAЯTY NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Oct 26, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I watched it a couple of times because it wasn’t them – loved hearing the Islanders’ commentators gushing over Green. It really was a tremendous play, too, reminiscent of Greenie last year in his prime. Mayhaps this is a sign that he’s back to his old self, albeit the (so far) more defensively sound version?
by Becca H on Oct 26, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they’re more in love with Greenie than my 17 year old sister
by RedBirdie on Oct 26, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I should hope so…it would be creepy if they were in love with your sister!
by PaintDrinkingPete on Oct 26, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I have a problem with a “rental pugilist”, not because he doesn’t serve a purpose, but because he’s a rental. If the Caps are actually interested in having that type of toughness they that guy in the lineup every night. Nobody would have expected to need an AHL tough against the Isles, but the consensus seems to be they did. Bringing him up for spot duty doesn’t seem like a solution to the problem. So what is the solution, bring up Sugden full time? That doesn’t seem likely. Someone that can actually help the team win will need to wear that hat (Your move el Capitan…)
by Sct112 on Oct 26, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
toughness they that guy in the lineup every night
Ugh:
… toughness then they need that guy in the lineup every night…
by Sct112 on Oct 26, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we want a BAMF that nobody wants to fight there's only one solution.
Trade Nyls for Simon.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Oct 26, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simon’s in the KHL, no?
When Hell freezes over, I'll play hockey there, too.
by Steck It Out on Oct 27, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
If consequences dictate the course of action, then it doesn't matter what's right, it's only wrong if you get caught. If consequences dictate the course of action, then I should play God...
by Fehr and Balanced on Oct 27, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I hope all of you attending the October 30th home game vs. the N.Y. Islanders have already carefully planned your Halloween get-ups.
Can’t; Selling my seats because the wife and I will be flying out for Halloween in Vegas that day.
What do you wear in bat country?
"I'm just doing karate and trying to get females pregnant."
by Bald Pollack on Oct 26, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Anything but a green-haired, white make-upped clown – they don’t think it’s very funny.
by DrinkingPartner on Oct 26, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why so serious?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Oct 27, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never really thought about the “magic 100” special teams percentage before. I like it a lot.
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Oct 26, 2009 9:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
|
Atlanta
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
|
Florida
|
19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 18 |
|
Carolina
|
21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.20.2009 at 9:16 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
