Some Numbers Behind the Numbers

by J.P. on Oct 12, 2009 3:00 PM EDT

As dazzling as the Caps' top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin has been so far this young season, there are troubling numbers behind the scoring totals, namely in the number of shots against that the Caps are allowing when the trio is on the ice. The raw numbers are bad (with opponents averaging 31.1 shots on goal per sixty minutes of 5-on-5 hockey while Ovechkin is on the ice, 34.8 against Semin and 35.6 against Backstrom), but what stands out even more is the shot differential (shots on goal for minus those against) for each: -5.5, -8.9 and -8.1, from left wing to right.

These early numbers are in stark contrast to last season, in which Backstrom's 27.1 shots against per sixty was the trio's high-water mark and his +4.9 differential was the lowest of the three, with Semin's +9.9 leading the way. In other words, through five games (obviously a tiny sample size), the five-aside shot differential between the Caps and their opponents while Alex Semin is on the ice is 18 shots per sixty minutes worse than it was a season ago, with Backstrom and Ovechkin's numbers not far behind.

Of course, hockey's about out-scoring your opponent, and the Caps' top line has a combined plus-12 rating thus far and the three Young Guns sit atop the League's even strength points table. But behind those impressive positive stats are some numbers that need to change in a hurry... or perhaps it will be the line combination that will need to change.

One last note: a quick look at these stats applied to the team's defensemen reveals that the Caps have just one blueliner who doesn't have a negative shot differential so far this season - the oft-scratched Jeff Schultz.

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This doesn’t surprise me at all. SOB doesn’t like to get the puck deep and work below the face-off dots. As a result they get tons of goals off the rush, but haven’t been cycling and pinning teams in the zone.

If you're after gettin' the honey, then you don't go killin' all them bees.

by Rob Parker on Oct 12, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

Until Saturday, when Poti decided to smack the puck directly into Bertuzzi.

by Knee high to a duck on Oct 12, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

How do you explain their numbers from last year?

by Sct112 on Oct 12, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

“They weren’t together nearly as much last year” is one explanation.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 12, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

“And only for selected situations, particularly the end of a close game, when the opposition is in a defensive shell.”

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Oct 12, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn’t realize your numbers were so flawed J.P. :)

I’m sure you know my thoughts on this but if we needed another argument for separating those guys this seems like a good one.

by Sct112 on Oct 12, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Precisely. Semin also played a good deal with Fedorov, who, for all his faults, still brought some serious D to the Caps top 6.

If you're after gettin' the honey, then you don't go killin' all them bees.

by Rob Parker on Oct 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Saturday night, I openly wondered how much it would cost for Feds to call from Russia and yell at Semin.

by RedBirdie on Oct 12, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Thats because Semin doesnt read the script…the script reads him…

by SA-Town on Oct 12, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

Booty Rec’d.

Not to mention metric #143 about Schultz’ positive defensive value to the team.

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Oct 12, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

“HA!”

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Oct 12, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously GOD? Max Talbot? Whyyyyyyyyyyyyy?!?

If you're after gettin' the honey, then you don't go killin' all them bees.

by Rob Parker on Oct 12, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Hahaha…too funny.

by JustinM on Oct 13, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

18 shots per game is 2 goals.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Oct 12, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

For both results, Care Bears and Schultz, I think it has to do with sample size rather than trend. 5-10 more games from now, and I’ll call it a trend.

by DrinkingPartner on Oct 12, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

It’s the Japers’ early-warning system at work…

IS PAЯTY NOW

by EmilyB on Oct 12, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Precisement.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 12, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think it’s sample size on Schultz – he had a positive differential last year, too. But it’s something to watch for, that’s all.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 12, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

In only one game, though, right? Or does he have two? I’m a Schultz defender and proud of it, just saying that for the numbers thus far this year, this early, I think it’s sample size.

by DrinkingPartner on Oct 12, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s gotten two. And obviously that’s a tiny sample, but I my point is that Schultz has good numbers here because he’s good, not because it’s a fluke in a tiny sample.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 12, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Two games aside, he’s also got the best GFON and GAON/60in ES for team backliners.

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Oct 12, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Free Jeff Schultz!

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Oct 12, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Has there been any legit conversation or thoughts on why he’s riding so much pine? I haven’t seen that asked by any of the local beat guys or seen much on it other than a few passing references in Caps Clips.

by Sct112 on Oct 12, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the general thought is the team is showcasing Juice, ShaMo, and maybe a couple of others on D to trade, and also finding pairings with good chemistry (52-55 anyone)?

by red army line on Oct 13, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Fuck that. Lock his ass up. For a long time.

If you're after gettin' the honey, then you don't go killin' all them bees.

by Rob Parker on Oct 12, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

How has he earned a long term contract so far. If he has a good year this year then i don’t have a problem with it, but he still has a lot to prove.

by GreenLife420 on Oct 12, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

How has he earned a long term contract so far.

By being a very good young player who plays an important position (and one where quality players always seem to be in demand no less).

by David Getz on Oct 12, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he’s earned it more than some other dmen that currently have contracts…

One guy just drove his semi as a float. I guess semis are cool.

by zephyr on Oct 12, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not saying give him 8 years at 4 per. But given where he is right now you could give him a lengthy extension that could be a steal down the line. I didn’t have anything in particular as I was mostly joking within the context of the “Free Schultz” thread but if he signed for 4-6 years at 2-2.5 million I think it would be an awesome contract for the Caps in the last 3 years, at least.

If you're after gettin' the honey, then you don't go killin' all them bees.

by Rob Parker on Oct 12, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I would do that in a second. In a second.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Oct 12, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately I don’t think his agent would. His agent has to know that in 4 years he’ll be worth more than 2.5, probably 3ish. But, then again Schultz is only going to be making 1-1.5 in the next couple years so he could still get the 2.5-3 in the later years and keep the cap hit somewhere in the 2-2.5 range.

If you're after gettin' the honey, then you don't go killin' all them bees.

by Rob Parker on Oct 12, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

fire up those T Shirt presses

www.wiseadvertising.com

Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.

by Sombrero Guy on Oct 12, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

“Free Jeff Schultz” on the front, “Schultz for Norris” on the back.

by hockeyman33 on Oct 12, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

It’s a sample size just like the SOB numbers this year are a sample size. It’s just that Schultz goes along with how he played last year and the SOB’s doesn’t. Regardless they are both samples. And regardless Schultz has only played two games and was unimpressive in both so that sample doesn’ t carry much weight. IMO of course

by GreenLife420 on Oct 12, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

As opposed to who, Sloan? Erskine?

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Oct 12, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Gasp! Have we found the first fault in the immaculate Super Swede’s game?

"My face is my mask."

by Jake Shapiro on Oct 12, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

Lots of turnovers due to overpassing high in the offensive zone, I’d guess.

Maybe play with an edge, be a little more physical -- maybe be more of a prick out there.

by jordanDC on Oct 12, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions

This has a Behind the Music vibe

“Ovechkin’s dynamic persona led the boys to nirvana, and Backie, Bongoes and Greenie held on for the whole, mind numbing ride. But there was a price to be exacted before they hit the top – no asked whose necks they were stepping on to reach that vaunted summit, but on that rusty dusty road to fame, Fate stepped out of the shadows with a big ole Konowalchuk hip check to their dreams…”

Or some other horseshit like that.

by S h a g g y on Oct 12, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

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