Monday Roundup - Alex Ovechkin's Historic Dominance

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 6:30 AM EST Comment 23 comments

As we all know, Alex Ovechkin led the NHL in goals in 2007-08 and it wasn't even close - AO ended the season with 25% more goals than runner-up Ilya Kovalchuk.

Ovie's goal-scoring dominance continued through the end of calendar year 2008, as his 60 goals scored were 20% more than his closest competition (Tomas Vanek, who lit the lamp 50 times).

But as dominant and clutch a goal scorer as AO has been (he has more game-winning goals in his last five games than Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have combined all season), it's easy to lose sight of the forest that is NHL history for the trees that have been these past three-plus years.

It's hard to compare raw goal totals over different eras - Alex is already fifth on the all-time list for most goals in the first four seasons of a career - but percentages can help to put things into context, and that's where we can see just how dominant he has been. Take a look at the goal totals for a few of hockey's biggest names over their first four full seasons and how they stacked up against the rest of the NHL over that span (modern era only):

Player	G	Runner Up	G	Δ
Ovechkin	190	Kovalchuk	159	19.5%
Bossy	241	Dionne	206	17.0%
Gretzky	269	Bossy	243	10.7%
Br. Hull	231	Yzerman	228	1.3%

Impressive, eh? Oh, and if you're looking for Mario Lemieux, Pavel Bure, Luc Robitaille and others, keep looking - none of them led the League in total goals over their respective first four seasons.

Of course, AO is more than just a goal scorer; he has created the most goals - both raw and per game - of any player since the lockout and is improving his all-around game all the time. But given how much more proficient he is at scoring goals than his contemporaries - how historically better he is than his competition - if "just a goal scorer" was all Alex Ovechkin was, he'd still be one of the most dominant players in NHL history.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Jim Matheson has the Rangers as a lock to host next year's Winter Classic and notes that "If the league's smart, they will get Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals as the other headliners." That's a big "if" in this League, Jim.... Another "humorous" year in (p)review picks the Caps to play for the Cup (and yet another has them winning it and engaging in other ridiculousness- h/t The Red Army)... Nick Backstrom gets some fantasy love from my buddy Dobber. That didn't come out right, did it?... Be sure to catch Bruce Boudreau on WPL this afternoon and Brooks Laich on EITM later in the week.... Huge kudos to Bob Woods and Mark French for being named coaches of the Canadian AHL All-Star team.... Alex Giroux is absolutely on fire since returning to Hershey (well, he hasn't actually returned to Hershey yet, but you know what I mean), with five goals and four assists in two games.... Caps prospect Joel Broda is leading the WHL in goals by a touchdown.... Here's an interesting read on Stefan Della Rovere, fighting, and a recent tragedy.... Happy Birthday to former Caps Mike Grier (34) and Joe Juneau (41).... Finally, on this date back in 1983, today's Cap of the Day played in his 600th consecutive NHL game, en route to an NHL record "iron man" streak of 964 consecutive games played.

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That’s a big “if” in this League, Jim….

That’s like asking for a miracle. I can see the Rangers hosting it, flaky though New York weather can be even in the dead of winter, but why no Canadian teams? I don’t think Canada is going to take another snub too kindly. Part of me wants to see a battle of the Capitals, i.e. Washington at Ottawa.

by gotsparkly on Jan 5, 2009 7:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

NBC is in no great rush to put a Canadian team on the tele in the U.S. (though I think Habs/B’s at Fenway would be sweet). The most plausible thing I’ve heard to that end is a Winter Classic doubleheader with an all-U.S. game followed by an all-Canadian game (that wouldn’t be televised down here on NBC).

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it makes sense to have two games on New Year’s Day, irrespective of the nationalities.

If the Rangers did host, though, where would they play? New Spanky Stadium would be interesting, but If they’re considering the shit box at exit 16…yech.

by bigonetimer on Jan 5, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok, question answered

by bigonetimer on Jan 5, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Canada already had one: The Heritage Classic.

And as they pointed out on HNIC (I think) this week, .ca doesn’t have a surfeit of abundance of appropriate venues in TOR or MTL, and VAN has the Olympics to worry about.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Jan 5, 2009 8:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Btw, mini-photoshop contest – the best “Bongos the Rabbit” image (emailed to Japers dot Rink at gmail dot com) gets a to be determined prize.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 9:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/3597/seminbongosyv0.gif

Someone posted that over the weekend, i thought that pretty much took the cake….

by Sombrero Guy on Jan 5, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ha. That’s nice.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

original credit for posting to
CapitalsKremlin on Jan 4, 2009 1:37 PM PST

by Sombrero Guy on Jan 5, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting numbers, and I do understand the point you bring up with them, however I wouldn’t really make the correlation between runner up and dominance.

If Gretzky was in his prime competing with Ovechkin, would that make Ovechkin any less dominant? Both would (probably) be having amazing seasons but if Gretzky is scoring more, does this or should this take away from Ovechkin?

I’m sure you understand what I’m saying.

by OvechkinLaichsSemin on Jan 5, 2009 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Gretzky was in his prime competing with Ovechkin, would that make Ovechkin any less dominant? Both would (probably) be having amazing seasons but if Gretzky is scoring more, does this or should this take away from Ovechkin?

I think it’d take away from both players’ individual dominance. As I see it, “dominance” is how much better you are than everyone else. If there are four 50-goal scorers in a given season, they might all be great goal scorers, but by virtue of the fact that four guys are grouped together there, it’s hard to call any of them particularly dominant. If, on the other hand, one guy is lapping everyone else, that’s dominance in my book. That’s a long-winded way of me saying that I think there’s a difference between greatness and dominance.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I completely understand, but it still just bothers me that how ‘dominant’ you are depends heavily on when you were born and when your competition was born, if you know what I mean. :)

by OvechkinLaichsSemin on Jan 5, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily, since rule changes and differences in style of play thoughout the years has had a definite effect on scoring statistics.

This can be one method of putting into perspective the numbers from different generations of players. Is it the best method? I don’t know, I doubt it—but it does give a frame of reference for comparison.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Jan 5, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know what you mean. I’m not saying Ovechkin is the best goal scorer of all-time, but I think a pretty strong argument can be made that he’s the most dominant scorer to enter the League in the modern era (i.e. he’s better by a wider stretch than anyone else).

And I’m not sure it depends as heavily on when he was born and when his competition was born as you think. I mean, is there any doubt in your mind that Alex could’ve scored 93 in the mid-80s, where, in 1983-84 for example, only one goalie’s save percentage topped .900?

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And recall Mirtle’s post that adjusted single-season goal totals over different eras, then extrapolate it for the years before and after, and it all really does point to a similar conclusion.

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by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don’t have any stats to back this up, but every time I watch video of games from the 1980’s, I think Ovechkin could easily score 100+ goals. The goalies always seemed out of position, the pads seemed smaller, the game just seemed slower etc.

by Sombrero Guy on Jan 5, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Quick stat – in 1983-84 (the first year they kept the SV% stat), goalies stopped 87.3% of the shots they faced. Last season, goalies stopped 90.9% of all shots.

I believe that AO could’ve scored 100, without a doubt.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can understand that bothering you. But it’s interesting to get this kind of comparison, because one’s statistical “dominance” in the all-time record books also depends heavily on when you were born and when your competition was born. I’m not trying to tarnish the greatness of any player that put up gaudy goal totals in the past, but if you watch old highlight reels (say, of Gretzky in the 80s), the goaltending is simply laughable. I don’t have a lot of difficulty imagining Ovie scoring 90+ goals in that era.

I’d be interested to see some kind of Mirtle-like analysis adjusting goal totals for the average starting goalie’s save %, though perhaps the adjustment for average goals is more accurate.

by grapejoos on Jan 5, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shots on goal haven’t changed much at all, so these two adjustments would be pretty similar.

by James Mirtle on Jan 8, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I found this item a bit interesting in the Captials Insider this morning…

*Alexandre Giroux made an impact upon his return to Hershey, first with a goal and three assists in the Bears’ 6-2 win over Hartford on Saturday and then with four goals and an assist in a 7-2 victory against Worcester Sunday.

I really hope he is able to one day translate this goal-scoring ability into NHL caliber talent, but I have yet to see it at this level.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Jan 5, 2009 10:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

There’s not likely to be that “one day” for Giroux – he’s already 27-years-old. More likely than not, he is what he is: a guy who can score at the AHL level, but not in The Show.

Oh, and you didn’t need to go to CI for that info… the totals were in this post. :)

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 5, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right, sorry, I must have missed that—just going through my morning reading list.

I agree, he’s not too old to break into the NHL, but his days are dwindling. He had a great opportunity to make a name for himself with this last call up…and didn’t in my opinion.

by PaintDrinkingPete on Jan 5, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if we can get Joe Motzko back from FLA for him?

by bigonetimer on Jan 5, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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