John Erskine, Revisted
by J.P. on Jan 26, 2009 12:22 PM EST
25 comments
[Ed. Note: I'm thrilled to introduce DMG as a new contributor to The Rink (then again, he's really been contributing here for a long time already). You know him from his own site, Caps Blue Line, and of course from the comments here, so enjoy his first post and be sure to welcome him formally aboard.]
It would be fair to say that since I started writing about the Capitals I’ve not exactly been a friend to John Erskine. Last February I called Erskine "a liability against most NHL caliber forwards". During the team's playoff series against Philadelphia I wrote that taking Erskine out of the lineup was "the most obvious" step the team needed to take in order to win the series. Over the summer I wrote that having Erskine under contract at all was a mistake that was hurting the Capitals when it came to getting under the salary cap.
Recently (that is to say, since Erskine's January 13th return to the' lineup) I've found myself becoming more and more of a fan of Erskine. At first glance, there’s no obvious reason why, as Erskine’s basic statistics aren’t any better this year than they were last year:
Of course, no one would try and argue that John Erskine is anything other than a defensive defenseman, and thus many of his contributions to the team are unlikely to show up in a basic stats line. With that in mind, I did a little number crunching in an effort to better quantify Erskine’s contributions and compare him with his teammates.
Here’s how Erskine stacks up so far this year, with "Rank/7" being Erskine’s rank among the team’s top seven defensemen (Erskine plus Mike Green, Tom Poti, Milan Jurcina, Karl Alzner, Shaone Morrisonn, and Jeff Schultz) and "Rank/9" being his rank among the nine defensemen who have played fifteen or more games for the team (the aforementioned seven plus Tyler Sloan and Sean Collins). All statistics other than plus/minus are given as frequencies as to how often a play occurs. Ergo a low number is good for hits, but bad for giveaways.
| 2008-09 | Erskine | Rank/7 | Rank/9 |
| Plus/Minus | 5 | 4th | 4th |
| Hit Frequency | 6:39 | 1st | 1st |
| Blocked Shot Frequency | 12:53 | 3rd | 4th |
| Giveaway Frequency | 41:12 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Takeaway Frequency | 412:00 | 7th | 9th |
The number that most obviously jumps out is takeaway frequency: in his 412 minutes of play this season, Erskine has registered just one official takeaway. However, if you look at Erskine’s numbers as compared with the six Capitals blueliners who were regulars both last season and this season and aggregate the numbers across the two campaigns, Erskine fares much better:
| 2007-08 through 08-09 | Erskine | Rank/6 |
| Plus/Minus | 6 | 4th |
| Hit Frequency | 7:24 | 1st |
| Blocked Shot Frequency | 13:11 | 2nd |
| Giveaway Frequency | 26:57 | 4th |
| Takeaway Frequency | 57:46 | 4th |
The numbers don’t paint an overly flattering picture but they do seem to suggest that Erskine is a quality NHL defenseman; one who will make a hit, block shots, and generally keep the team out of trouble, an assessment that is much more flattering than one I would have given at the season’s outset.
But of course, it’s impossible to discuss Erskine’s role on the Capitals without discussing his new contract, a two year, $2.5 million dollar extension that kicks in next season. Sure, he might be a decent enough NHL defenseman, but is he worth the money and, perhaps more importantly, the cap hit?
Not too long ago I would have said no, but the going rate for stay-at-home defensemen is higher than you might think. There are a fair number of players who are statistically similar to Erskine making comparable salaries including Ossi Vaananen ($1 million), Ken Klee ($1.25 million), Denis Gauthier ($2.1 million), and Jim Vandermeer ($2.6 million). Naturally some of the players with similar statistics are better than Erskine. However, Erskine has one advantage over a number of comparable players as well: he can fight.
Erskine will never be the top tier heavyweight Donald Brashear is, but he is good enough to make most opposing players think twice before taking any liberties and to make forwards just a little more reluctant to go the net when he’s on the ice. But what is a fight worth? A recent paper suggests the going rate is about $11,000 for any fight and more than $18,000 for winning, the aggregation of which can be see in the salaries of players like Brashear ($1.2 million), Georges Laraque ($1.5 million), Todd Fedoruk ($1.05 million), Derek Boogaard ($950,000), and Eric Godard ($750,000). All are decent enough forwards but all also make substantially more money because of their pugilistic skills. Having one player who can play and who can fight is a better option than having to use an additional roster space and contract for a player who’s useless when his gloves are on. It would be difficult to put a number on Erskine’s additional value to the Capitals because of his fighting ability but I’d be comfortable calling it at least $250,000.
Perhaps the most important consideration in evaluating both Erskine’s performance and contract is to think of the alternatives. Being able to take a regular shift in the NHL without putting your team in frequent peril is a skill that is much rarer than it might seem, something Capitals fans who have watched Bryan Helmer, Sean Collins, and Tyler Sloan this season should know. NHL teams are aware of it as well – more than a half dozen "depth defensemen" are moved every year at the trading deadline, as playoff contenders look to shore up their defensive ranks.
More than double the league’s minimum salary might seem like a lot for a player whose general job is essentially to eat up ice time without making any major mistakes until the more skilled players recover enough to get back on the ice. But the reality is that there simply aren’t very many people capable of doing that the NHL. John Erskine is one of the people who is, even in spite of his mediocre skating ability and tendency to take too many penalties. On that basis alone, a pretty strong argument can be made that he’s worth his new contract.
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Nice work, DMG
And I’m with you – Erskine has been solid. I think we’ve all seen over the past month the element that he adds to our D when he’s in the lineup, and it’s pretty valuable. At first I thought his contract was a major mistake, but it’s looking more and more like a shrewd move on McPhee’s part.
Now if he can just get those giveaway/takeaway numbers more balanced, he could be quite an asset.
by grapejoos on Jan 26, 2009 12:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks grapejoos, I’m very excited to be here.
I am agree with regards to the giveaway/takeaway differential, but I’m thinking Erskine is due for a few takeaways this year which should help those numbers a bit.
by David M. Getz on Jan 26, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think there are a couple points worth adding:
4’s PIMs are down significantly this year. About 50 percent. So I think his stats are significantly better this year than they were last year.
And as for fighting… don’t buy that as adding to his value. Yes, Ersky can drop the gloves if completely and totally necessary. But you don’t want your D doing that, especially D who can kill. And Erskine can. Losing one of 12 Fs for 5-7 minutes, no biggie. Losing one of six D: Biggie. I don’t see that as being any kind of a factor in terms of his play or his contract.
by TylerG on Jan 26, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And I don’t know that I consider $2.1 M nor $2.6M “comparable” salaries. Klee though: I think he’s the most comparable player in the NHL.
by TylerG on Jan 26, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
*** Just to clarify, DMG wrote this post. J.P. did not. ***
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jan 26, 2009 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I absolutely DO buy that his fighting ability adds value. In my opinion, as a defenseman, the bulk of your scraps are going to occur during the course of play (e.g., as a result of aggressive hitting in your own zone, clearing the crease, etc), not the orchestrated fights that Brashear tends to find himself in right after a faceoff (though there is value there also). On this team, Erskine is the only D-man capable of sending that physical message with his fists. The question in my mind that is troublesome is: how effective/willing will Erskine be as a fighter with his concussion history? Based on his play so far since returning, he has not lost an ounce of aggressiveness, but he also has not had a meaningful scrap since getting “kabong-ed” in the chin by Godard last spring (resulting in a concussion). I think the one fight this year was a quickie in Game 1.
By the way, who didn’t love Erskine giving Savard a face full of mitten in the B’s game recently? Name one other defenseman on the Caps who would’ve done that….maybe Morrisson.
by Cluster on Jan 26, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ll agree that D get involved in more scraps in the course of play than Fs do, but I maintain that you don’t want your D to be the guys you count on to drop the gloves. Especially when they PK. I don’t think this is exactly news: Look at the fighting stats and find me all the D that fight even semi-regularly.
by TylerG on Jan 26, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps not a guy you want to rely on, but I do think that physical presence is worth something. Think of the Capitals other two big blueliners, Schultz and Jurcina, and how much those guys are worth in terms of a cap hit. Whatever value you’d have to place on them, I think it would make sense that a sudden transformation of their game where they played with the attitude that Erskine does and we willing to fight would make them at least a little more valuable.
by David M. Getz on Jan 26, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don’t want your defensemen fighting, but Erskine’s willingness to fight does give him a little extra versatility (as someone suggested here, even in terms of converting him to a forward if we lose Brashear and have enough D depth). I don’t think it’s a huge factor, but it’s hard to ignore how much GMs are willing to spend for pure goons just for the fighting ability.
by grapejoos on Jan 26, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1) DMG: As you usually provided at your other blog outpost, nice analysis.
2) AS for Erskine. Agreed that he seems to be playing better than last season. Of course it may be a bit difficult with all the other true AHL talent the caps have had to use that Erskine may look better in comparison
3) Have to say that it seems that GMGM overpaid for his services a bit. Do you think that John would have commanded a 1 million+ contract on the open market next summer with the salary cap flattening/going down?
4) As to the worth of his fighting ability. On one hand agree with Tyler that its not a huge plus, and usually its not a good thing to have a defensemen as one of your team’s primary enforcer, but on the other hand it is a bit of a plus that he has that edge to his game that no other back liner on the team possesses
by Fauxrumors on Jan 26, 2009 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Regarding your last comment: Why? What can Erskine accomplish by dropping the gloves that he can’t accomplish with his plenty-extant mean streak?
by TylerG on Jan 26, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Should reiterate that its not in a team’s best interest to have a top 6 defender in the box serving 5 min majors several times/game, but it does serve notice to opposing players that he means business and his ‘mean steak’ persona isn’t a paper tiger
by Fauxrumors on Jan 26, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And do protect your goalie. Last year in the playoffs, IMO the filthy took too many liberties with Huet. Nobody truly stepped up – including Erskine.
The last game vs Boston (I think it was the B’s), someone came in a bit late into JT; Erskine stepped up and reminded him he was on the ice.
You need a Dman with a mean streak to protect your goalie at all costs. Think back to anyone who touched Beaupre or Pete Peters or any other goalie when Langway/Stevens were on the ice and what happened to them. Not saying Erskine is like either of those 2 men, but he brings that edge our Dman lack.
by vt caps fan on Jan 26, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How are you defining “mean streak”? To me, it goes beyond being a hard hitter. I’m having trouble separating “mean streak” and “dropping the gloves”. I don’t care how mean someone is, if I know they can’t or won’t back it up by dropping the gloves and doing one of the hardest things in hockey, then they’re not quite as effective. Yes, noted on him playing D and being a penalty killer, I don’t think anyone is suggesting he become the primary enforcer.
by Cluster on Jan 26, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Erskine’s plus/minus is a pleasant surprise to me this year but what I’d love to see is some analysis that factors in his most frustrating tendencies and that is taking unnecessary minor penalties. I have to be honest last season he seemed to be good for at least one boneheaded penalty a game whether it be dumping the puck over the glass or tripping. I wouldn’t mind roughing or fighting and I highly doubt he will replace Brashear in that category next season or beyond. That being said McPhee is starting to sign guys at the right time whether it be Flash or Semin. Can you imagine Semin being a restricted free agent after his playoffs and world championship?
by RED503 on Jan 26, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Analysis: Last year he took 1.88 PIMs per game, which is nothing short of a shocking total for a defenseman. This year he’s down to 1.29 PIMs per game, which is still a tad high, but acceptable given that a few of those are probably 2s each-way for roughing.
by TylerG on Jan 26, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly don’t know what is high or low for a physical stay at home defenseman but I do know this team is known for taking bad penalties and having a mediocre penalty kill. Thanks Tyler!
by RED503 on Jan 26, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers aside
I think the numbers DMG has laid out here show that Erskine is an NHL D-man. For any Anti-Erskiners out there, (and there are MANY!) please watch him carefully next time you are at a game. He ALWAYS hustles. Whether it’s charging into a corner for a puck or whatever, he nevers lets his effort slip. I can’t say the same for most of our current D-men.
by Feeshbate on Jan 26, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ll give you that – he works his butt off. But sometimes, work ethic ain’t enough.
That said, I’m fine with him as a 6/7.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jan 26, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that’s the point, isn’t it? As long as we all accept him as a 6/7, then you can’t expect too much.
It drives me crazy when people get up in arms about guys sucking when in reality they’re supposed to be depth players—what team has a 6/7 defenseman that all the fans say is just terrific and has no holes in his game? When have the Caps had a 6/7 that everyone felt should get 20 minutes a game?
If everyone (including Pothier) was healthy, and the salary cap wasn’t keeping Alzner in Hershey, Erskine would be a 7/8—about where he should be.
by bilspacecadet on Jan 26, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think part of it is that Erskine often has taken bad penalties – you can tolerate lackluster play and general lack of skill, but when you’re putting your team shorthanded, that’s really hard to swallow. I haven’t had that problem with him this year so much, and have actually come to like the guy. Maybe that’s just after seeing a lot of Lepisto/Sloan/Helmer/Collins.
But you’re right, Erskine is probably a 3rd pairing defenseman, and all of those guys are flawed in some way. I don’t even have that much of an issue with his contract anymore.
by grapejoos on Jan 27, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
great work DMG? Does this mean Caps Blue Line is done for though?
by CapitalsKremlin on Jan 26, 2009 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good job DMG! Keep up the good work!
by Simply Sensational on Jan 27, 2009 12:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
|
Atlanta
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
|
Florida
|
20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 20 |
|
Carolina
|
21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 12:53 AM EST)
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