Monday Roundup - The Road (And Home) Ahead

by J.P. on Jan 26, 2009 6:39 AM EST

With the All-Star festivities behind us and meaningful hockey still a day-and-a-half away, let's take a quick look at what's facing the Caps between now and the end of the regular season.

We'll begin by noting that apparently the Caps have a 99% chance of making the playoffs (h/t AO), and will most likely finish in third in the Conference (though they are the team most likely to finish in second), where their most likely opponent in the first round will be... the Philadelphia Flyers (who no doubt will have a suddenly healthy Danny Briere, Peter Forsberg, and whomever else the acquire down the stretch while they hide Briere on LTIR... but we digress).

But there are games to be played between now and then - 34, to be exact - and the schedule is quite favorable for the Caps. How favorable? Using opponents' winning percentage as the metric, the Caps have the easiest remaining schedule in the NHL - a dozen of the 34 games left (35%) are against teams which would have a ping pong ball in the lottery if the season ended tomorrow.

The Caps also have 18 home games left, only leave the Eastern time zone once (and that's a trip to Nashville... which is closer to D.C. than two of the Caps' four Southeast Division foes and just an hour behind Eastern Standard Time), and have just four sets of back-to-back games (they've played nine such sets already this season). The team does have a five game road trip in March that will take them to each of the other Southeast barns and Toronto, but from mid-February through early March they have a string of nine out of ten games played at home (where, of course, they're 19-3-1, the fewest home losses of any team in the East).

The Caps certainly have a knack for making games more difficult than they should be, so we'll take nothing for granted - not those games against the League's bottom feeders, not the Southeast Division crown and not the playoff spot - but as far as the schedule goes, the Caps now find that the most challenging portions are behind them.

Elsewhere 'Round the Rinks:

Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green will be at the Washington Auto Show on February 6, which, of course, reminds us of this classic.... Some Caps spent the All-Star break in Florida. Others in Sweden. To each his own.... Lastly, I've finally gotten around to updating the "Home Team Links" sidebar blog roll of Caps blogs (latest add: Capitals for Kids), but if you don't see yours on there, please let me know.

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Playoffs

Though every team that makes the playoffs is a threat, I would certainly like the Caps to avoid the Bruins, the Flyers and the Devils in the first round. This puts me in the awkward/nauseating/untenable position of not only wishing those teams well but occasionally rooting for them. It is an internal struggle of Biblical proportions that might very well cost me a part of my soul. Such is my devotion to the Caps..

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Jan 26, 2009 8:47 AM EST reply actions

You got to like the Caps position, but then again, I’m sure Carolina liked their position last year at this time. Looking at the standings and the schedule, I actually think Florida’s a bigger threat than Carolina. The Panthers have two games in hand and play two more home games than Carolina. It should be interesting to see what the Panthers do with Bouwmeester if they’re still in contention for the playoffs when the trade deadline approaches. Part of me wants them to still be fighting for a spot because then they’d end up with nothing for him. The other part would like to see them fall out of contention and have nothing to play for when the Caps see them three times in March. In the end, though, it would take a monumental collapse to not win the division.

by b.orr4 on Jan 26, 2009 8:58 AM EST reply actions

Hmmmm.....

Maybe, but monumental collapse has the word PENALTY KILL scrawled all over it right now. I agree that Florida is a bigger threat than Carolina right now given various momentums in varying directions, but I’m not considering anything safe right now, not until that penalty kill gets fixed!

Me, I’m a little nervous – okay, a lot nervous – about the rest of the season. I want to keep that second seed in the conference, and if we fix the penalty kill BUT QUICK, we probably can. If not, we could be sunk. Remember that Carolina didn’t make the playoffs last year.

by gotsparkly on Jan 26, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

Shock

All of the teams in the Southeast are above the Mediocrity mark? There’s no way that those standings are right.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 10:27 AM EST reply actions

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/capitalsstandings.html is what I’m talking about. All the division teams have written in 15 losses.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

I think there’s a bug on the site… Carolina and some of the others are closer to the Caps than that, and have more OT/SO losses…

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jan 26, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

The schedule upcoming looks great for the Caps and having only one more western road game (where the Caps are 2-6-0) is a good thing. The Caps are 9-6-2 on the road in the Eastern Conference, a very respectable mark.

Having the easiest schedule though doesn’t mean they have it easy, just easier. If they’re not ready they’ll have issues. Still the Caps really have only 5 road games against teams that have a good shot at the postseason (2 with Boston, one to MSG, one to Philly and one to Jersey). The remaining 11 away games feature all of their away games in the state of Florida, two more trips to Atlanta, and a trip to Carolina (9 division games) as well as the trips to Nashville and Toronto. There are points out there, as long as Jurcina doesn’t boot them away.

The home schedule is tougher, with Detroit, Montreal, Philly, Colorado, and Buffalo coming to visit. Pittsburgh has to make 2 visits here still, ditto for Carolina, Atlanta, and Florida.

I thought the Caps would end up with 112 points (50-20-12) and I’ll stick to that point total, although I don’t see 12 OT/SO losses. More wins could happen though, so maybe 53-23-6.

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jan 26, 2009 10:33 AM EST reply actions

One could easily make the argument that the toughest part of their schedule is the next two games (Boston and Detroit). If they can come out with a split, I think everyone will be happy.

by b.orr4 on Jan 26, 2009 10:40 AM EST reply actions

I remember the times that when looking to a game at Detroit, not getting blown out would make everyone happy.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions

And not having half the crowd wearing Detroit jerseys. I have a feeling Red Wings fans will still come out in better numbers than any team outside of Pittsburgh, but I’ll be real curious to see what the actual percentage ends up being.

by b.orr4 on Jan 26, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Ugh. Those jerks in their fugley red & white jerseys are frickin’ everywhere! (Except in Detroit, of course). We thought we were plagued only at the Pepsi Center in Denver; we had no idea they are in DC too.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Red Wings fans are like Yankees fans. There’s a pocket in every arena, and they’ll always wear their Wings jerseys even if their team isn’t playing and they go to, say, a Thrashers/Lightning game.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

Please don’t compare Wings fans with Yankees fans. The Yankees fans support their team by filling up Yankee stadium during games and they show their support all over NYC all year long. I’m not really a Yankees fan but I live in NYC, so I see it. Wings fans are suburbanites that apparently go to hockey games in cities other than Detroit.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

You live in New York, so you don’t know about the Yankees fans outside of it? Yankee fans are completely comparable. Detroit’s fans may be suburbanites, but they certainly don’t TRAVEL to come see games in DC. DC has a medium sized group of Wings fans. I know because I’ve lived in this area since I was seven. There were always 2-3 kids on my hockey teams (Out of 8-9) who were Wings fans, and who’s parents were Wings fans. Usually, 2-3 Wings guys, a Pens guy, a Flyers guy, 2 Caps fans, and a “Well, I just signed up to play hockey cause my mom says I’m not doing anything”.

Yankees fans outside DC also tend to just show up to games. I’ve been to more than one Nats game at RFK, more than one Orioles game at Camden, and more than one Cards game at old Busch. At each, there were SEVERAL fans wearing Yankees gear. Never have I seen the Yankees play.

I’ve been to a TON of Caps games, a few Norfolk Admirals games, and even a college game in Illinois, amid tons of high school and youth league hockey growing up, and there were ALWAYS a few Red Wings jerseys.

Hell, a friend of mine’s license plate says “YZERFAN”.

Yankees fans outside of New York are typically looked at by non-Yanks fans as the scum of the universe. I could say the same about most Wings fans I know.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Dude, why should I know about Yankees fans outside of NYC? I don’t even care.

Frankly, I don’t even know why you’re ranting about Yankees fans when this blog is about hockey. Dang, I thought I was showing solidarity with anti-love towards Wings fans and you just go off on the Yankees.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

See second post _’

It’s a hockey forum, but I see a lot of parallels between Wings and Yanks fans, that I’ve experienced, and I have a headache, so I read your post as more of a “You don’t know squat about Yankees fans,” which wasn’t your intent. Backing off.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

I missed your point. Your point is that the Joe isn’t getting filled up. Well, in all honesty, if you’re living in Detroit right now, I think you have more pressing issues than going to a hockey game.

I’m sure if every company based out of New York was struggling that didn’t sell porn or video games, Yanks fans would reconsider going out to Yankee Stadium too.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

we had no idea they are in DC too.

cough *1998 cough cough

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Forsberg in Philly?

Are there lots of rumors now that Forsberg, if he comes back, will be signing with the Flyers? Most Colorado Avalanche fans and the Denver media assume he’ll come back to Colorado if he can play, especially since that’s what he said he would do at the end of last season.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Foppa said similar things about coming back to Nashville.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

When? Where? I don’t think I’ve ever heard that. I’m sure if he did say that, it was maybe it was before last year, when he was trying to decide mostly between Colorado and Philadelphia.

I’m wondering if there’s been any talk recently in the media about Forsberg and Philadelphia.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Do you really hear any hockey news coming out of Nashville about Nashville? It wasn’t “I’m going to stay here,” it was more along the lines of “Hey, I like it here. I could stay,”

It’s a damn shame that Poile is in the situation he’s in. I firmly believe he is the best GM in hockey, and he’s going through the financial situation he is, where he built an awesome team, ownership said “Win now, or we’re going to lose the fan base” so he gave up what he was building (Timmonen, Vokoun, Mason, Upshall, to name a few) to get prime (or past prime) players (Kariya, Witt, Foppa), and it never worked, unfortunately. I’ll always have a soft spot for any team he’s GM for.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

flyers can have him

for them, it still ends poorly.

by macvechkin on Jan 26, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

Okay, I’m still just curious about J.P.‘s comments about Forsberg joining the Flyers. Maybe he was being sarcastic. I’m just wondering what information is floating around out there.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

I firmly believe he is the best GM in hockey

No way he is the best GM. Good to very good, yes, so I assume you were referring to having the best hair…

by macvechkin on Jan 26, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions

Dang

Is it possible that he’s Benjamin Button?

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

Poile, pondering a trade, circa 2040....

by macvechkin on Jan 26, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

I say best, because he’s always been working for teams that are both financially and locational-wise on the fence. He’s worked for the Caps and the Preds in the last, what, 20 years? I seem to recall him pulling off trades that essentially kept the team in town for the Caps, and look at us now.

He’s basically doing the same thing in Nashville with even less public support. The “Save the Preds” meme was shorter lived than Jagr’s “Welcoming Party” to DC.

Who’s your top GM in the NHL?

I dare say, however, that that is the finest head of hair on any GM I have ever seen.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

Don’t see how it could be anyone other than Ken Holland. For as good as Poile may be he does have to get a slight deduction for not winning. Especially some of those mid-80s Caps teams that were ridiculously loaded. Not saying it was Poile’s fault, but he hasn’t won, either.

by macvechkin on Jan 26, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Fair point that he never managed to win. I think the GMs job is to provide consistency, and the coach/players job to win the championships. We made the playoffs pretty year in/year out.

I think Poile could come close to getting a playoff team with my budget. If not, at lest if you and I pooled some cash, Macvechkin. We’d probably still do better than Wang.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

Poile is a decent GM and has done well in Nashville, but the guy drafted pretty wretchedly toward the end of his Caps tenure. He had 7 first round picks between 94 and 97 and couldn’t come up with a single NHL regular (that actually played with the Caps). Of the 7, only Boynton turned into a decent player, and was never signed if memory serves.

I know the guy picked other productive players prior to that (and subsequently in Nashville), but you just can’t blow 4 straight drafts like that. His trade history was not exactly sterling, either.

Not that McPhee was much better at first, mind you. It took him several years to start hitting on his draft picks. And that cold spell (shared by Poile and McPhee) had a lot to do with the systemwide lack of quality D prospects that has only recently been remedied.

by grapejoos on Jan 26, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno, I’d put a vote in for Ken Holland.

"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."

by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, another vote for Holland. While other teams go through “down” years to rebuild, the Wings have consistently stayed contenders. He did a great job dealing with the salary cap when it was implemented too, while other “rich,” winning teams couldn’t keep all of their superstars under the cap. It’s not his fault his fans are so annoying.

by Pookie on Jan 26, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

I guess by my earlier definition, I’d have to vote for him as well, but I wouldn’t lower Poile’s stock too much. I’d love to see what the guy could do for an owner willing to spend.

Football's boring. Get over it.

by Whiter Mage on Jan 26, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Just curious

Why do you like that site better than this one:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Capitals.html

by bilspacecadet on Jan 26, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions

Nice call – I had actually forgotten about that site. I have no preference as between the two.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 26, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

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Southeast Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Florida Litter Box Cats	53	25	17	11	61
Washington Japers' Rink	54	28	21	5	61
Winnipeg Arctic Ice Hockey	56	26	24	6	58
Tampa Bay Raw Charge	53	23	24	6	52
Carolina Canes Country	55	20	25	10	50