Friday Roundup - Changing Field Position
by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 6:44 AM EST
43 comments
Tune in on any Fall Saturday or Sunday to catch a football game and you're bound to hear plenty about "field position." Teams are routinely praised for drives that start deep in their own end and pick up a few first downs and nothing more because they've now backed their opponents up to the point where, as the two teams trade three-and-outs, a slight miscue by the now-pressured squad puts the advantaged team within striking distance of scoring.
Yawn.
But you don't hear too much about field position in hockey, presumably because hockey isn't played on a field. And yet territorial advantage in hockey is incredibly important to winning hockey games. Want evidence? The top five teams in the League in terms of points percentage have taken 32.1% of their collective even strength face-offs in the offensive zone and 27.9% in the defensive zone, while the five worst teams in the League have taken just 28.9% of those draws in the opponent's end and 30.7% to the left or right of their own goalie. San Jose (the NHL's leader in points at the All-Star Break) has a 32.3/26.5 split, while the Isles (the world's League's worst team) has a 28.3/33.9 split, and all of those differentials are even more dramatic when you consider the even strength faceoffs in the neutral zone that result from goals
And while differences may not sound like much, but that's a couple of face-offs per game, and those faceoffs often lead to scoring chances for... or against.
By now, you're wondering how the Caps fair in this part of the game. Well, they've taken 32.3% of their even strength draws in the offensive zone and 28.9% in their own end. It's a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg scenario, of course - more face-offs in the offensive zone lead to more scoring chances, which lead to more face-offs in the offensive zone - but it's a good indicator that a team is performing well at even strength. As The Falconer put it, "assuming they don't score, a good offensive shift often results in a) the opposition icing the puck; b) the goaltender freezes the puck; c) the opposition deflects the puck out. All three of these non-scoring outcomes results in a face-off in the offensive zone."
Indeed.
Taking things a step further, we can look at which individual players are helping and which are hurting this "field position" cause (and this is where it gets kinda cool). Again quoting The Falconer:
If we look at the LONG RUN of a full NHL season, the better players are going to have more shifts that finish in the offensive zone compared to the number that began back in their own defensive zone. Zone shift captures this basic intuition--players with positive numbers usually are better at shifting the puck out of the D Zone and into the O Zone over the course of a season.
The methodology here is pretty simple - look at how many times a player is on the ice for an even strength face-off and where those draws are, and look at how many times a player's shift ends with an upcoming even strength face-off and where those take place, and go from there. I've also added an offensive zone face-off for each plus a player has and added a defensive zone draw for each minus (less those cause by shorties in both cases), since ultimately successful (or unsuccessful) shifts should be accounted for.
Got it? Good.
Below, then, is a chart showing the relevant numbers for every Cap skater who has played at least 20 games, with the players ranked by zone shift per minute of even strength ice time (Sft/M). What else is on the chart? Other than Sft/M, you'll see players' five-on-five Corsi Ratings (another gauge of territorial advantage at even strength), five-on-five Quality of Competition, or QualComp, so you can see who's playing the tough minutes and who isn't, and finally five-on-five Goals For ON/60 minus Goals Against On/60 (+/-60), which is really the one that matters most. Without further ado...
| Player | Sft/M | Corsi | QualComp | +/-60 |
| Eric Fehr |
.082 | 20.5 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Sergei Fedorov |
.072 | 30.4 | -0.07 | 1.76 |
| Tom Poti |
.059 | 10.5 | 0.04 | 0.53 |
| Brooks Laich |
.044 | 8.2 | 0.03 | -0.33 |
| Boyd Gordon |
.040 | -7.0 | -0.03 | -0.15 |
| Alex Semin |
.037 | 20.8 | -0.02 | 3.31 |
| Alex Ovechkin |
.032 | 19.9 | -0.03 | 1.44 |
| David Steckel |
.027 | 0.1 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| Shaone Morrisonn |
.020 | 9.9 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| Karl Alzner |
.016 | 15.4 | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| Nicklas Backstrom |
.010 | 18.7 | -0.04 | 1.15 |
| Mike Green |
.005 | 19.1 | -0.02 | 1.57 |
| Chris Clark |
-.003 | -5.3 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| Tyler Sloan |
-.005 | 4.7 | -0.02 | 0.99 |
| Milan Jurcina |
-.020 | 7.2 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
| Matt Bradley |
-.022 | 2.6 | -0.02 | 0.37 |
| Michael Nylander |
-.030 | 16.6 | -0.03 | 0.36 |
| Viktor Kozlov |
-.032 | 16.5 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| Jeff Schultz |
-.034 | -2.4 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Donald Brashear |
-.046 | 2.9 | -0.08 | -0.50 |
| John Erskine |
-.052 | 8.1 | -0.09 | 0.51 |
| Tomas Fleischmann |
-.087 | 6.0 | 0.01 | -0.30 |
Alrighty then. Some initial thoughts on the numbers:
- First and foremost, I think it's pretty clear that (from an on-ice perspective, at least) Eric Fehr needs to be playing and Chris Clark needs to be sitting. Fehr is moving the puck out of his zone and towards the opponent's goal, and against the toughest competition anyone on the team is facing. His +/-60 is middling (perhaps the result of his reluctance to go into the high traffic areas where goals are found, among other reasons), but Clark's numbers just reek across the board, culminating in a team-worst +/-60.
- Another thing to note here is that, despite his penalty the other night, Alex Semin is a monster at even strength. He's moving the puck, creating (and finishing) chances, and has a ridiculous 3.30 +/-60 (best in the League by a wide margin, in fact).
- Someone please draw Tomas Fleischmann a map to the defensive zone so he can help his teammates get the puck out of it and up ice. His Sft/M is the team's worst, his +/-60 is bad, and he also has the team's worst +/- (alone on the second page... sad). And yet he gets penalty killing time, despite being terrible there too. He really needs to start pulling his weight, skinny as he is, at both ends.
- Boyd Gordon is doing what someone in his role should be doing - getting the puck out of his zone.
- Tom Poti is valuable. Very. Feds too.
There's plenty more to take away from this, but I shouldn't have all the fun, so I'll throw it out for you guys. What do you see in these numbers?
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This is an awesome set of stats I’ve never seen written out before. Thanks.
What does it mean for guys with high Corsi ratings and low Sft/M (particularly Kozlov and Nylander)? Does it mean they take a lot of low quality shots that are leading to the opponents taking possession?
by boz on Jan 23, 2009 7:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’d guess that high Corsi and low Sft/M indicates a guy who’s doing well once the puck gets into the offensive zone, but doesn’t help much in getting it there (Flash is another guy that fits that description and those parameters).
It’s sorta the anti-Gordon (low Corsi, high Sft/M), which makes some sense to me – Boyd is effective in moving the puck from the D-zone to the O-zone, but doesn’t do much with it once it’s there. Steckel, too, to a lesser extent.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 7:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Btw, the irony of my “Yawn” in the second paragraph of this post is not lost on me.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 7:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
One thing on Semin though is that this doesnt reflect the defensive zone faceoffs that his penalties create. His numbers are skewed towards offensive (probably marginally however) as his penalties and ensuing defensive faceoffs are not reflected in this. While I don’t this will drasticly change his numbers it does allow me to act pompous and smug.
by MetalCap on Jan 23, 2009 8:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow guess I should proof before I post…sorry coffee hasn’t kicked in… GO CAPS
by MetalCap on Jan 23, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Semin has only taken a dozen minor penalties all season. Why not point out the defensive zone faceoffs that Ovechkin’s 28 minors have caused?
I do see your point, of course, but it seems a gratuitous shot at Semin.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing these stats point out (and something I’ve mentioned before) is how much more potent the Caps could be if Backstrom and Nylander could win faceoffs with a little more regularity.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 9:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’s pretty fascinating. I was just going to make the 19 faceoff point, but you beat me to it. (He’s under 45 percent 12 out of 13 games, with a bunch of games in the 30s.)
That’s a striking 17 stat. But it doesn’t necessarily make me feel better about what my eyes tell me about Fehr’s shots: rush-killing wristers from above the circles.
Tom Poti earns his money. Jeff Schultz too — and he’s not even making any.
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 9:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think your Fehr point is, um, fair, and reflected in his low +/-60 – he’s moving the puck and putting shots towards net, but not necessarily of the quality that we’d like. I still take him over Clark right now.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ahhh, but isn’t the whole point of the post that after Fehr takes the “rush-killing wrister” that the top line comes on and takes a faceoff in the offensive zone? If there was ever an argument, and it’s one I always make to the Ovie-shot bashers, it’s that if the shot is on net and the goalie has to cover up the next draw is in the offensive zone. I couldn’t be more happy to finally see this type of correlation, thanks JP!
by wittcap79 on Jan 23, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
… which all circles back to Nick’s faceoff woes, doesn’t it? Dude only has three even strength points (in 10 games) this month.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The 19 faceoff troubles is one of the biggest stories for this team entering the second half. Nicky should be working on that every day after practice. (Is he?)
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The 19 faceoff troubles is one of the biggest stories for this team entering the second half.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gabby is smart enough not to call out individual players. And Tarik doesn’t seem able to look at statistics or smart analysis (ici) himself.
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tarik's Chat
He said his piece today was focusing on what the team needs to improve overall, not individual players. He specifically mentioned not calling out Nyls and Clark’s poor play, but one can assume he was also talking about Nicky’s face-off woes (which was the question to which he was responding — one of you guys??).
by Scott in Shaw on Jan 23, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pas moi
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was at the morning skate before the Bruins game last weekend. He and Steckel spent some time on faceoffs with Dean, but it was perhaps 5 mintues and a one practice sample size.
by Ames on Jan 23, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Glad to see the Washington Post linking to more of your smart, analytical content, too.
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 9:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clark
The Caps lockerroom is beginning to get a little crowded with two 500-pound gorillas taking up space. The first we know is Nylander, who it’s obvious because of his contract and non-production probably isn’t going anywhere. The second is Chris Clark. With 1 goal, 5 points, a -4 rating and a salary of $2.6 million, you’d be hard pressed to find a less productive player in the NHL. Yet his name is never mentioned as possibly being traded or waived. Now don’t get me wrong. I have all the admiration in the world for Clark in the way he’s battled through injuries, his willingness to stand up for teammates and his being an all-around good guy. And let’s not forget that he took less money to stay here because he believed in the team and wanted to help turn it around. But, as it’s often been pointed out, this is a business and right now Chris is a black hole that’s taking up a roster spot and significant cap space that could keep Alzner with the big club. I’ll be the first to admit that I have mixed feelings on this. If he weren’t the Captain and a veteran who has performed at high levels, I’d be screaming for his release. But he is those things and more and, by all accounts, very popular in the lockerroom, so moving him could cause more problems than it solves. Yet, because of injuries, he’s a shadow of the player he once was. So what does Caps management do about Chris? My guess is probably nothing other than have him sit in the press box more often than not and let Alzner play in Hershey until the playoffs. But with two more years left on his contract, I think Chris is a prime candidate to be bought out or traded in the off-season.
by b.orr4 on Jan 23, 2009 9:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lots of us here, including JP, have discussed moving 17.
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whe I said his name is mentioned, I wasn’t referring to fans. I was talking about Caps management.
by b.orr4 on Jan 23, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Given Caps management, that might be the surest sign he’s likely to be moved. :)
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, though, where are you going to find a buyer? I think when he comes back completely healed, he’ll be fine, but he’s not there yet.
/shrug. It takes me a long time to give up on people.
Football's boring. Get over it.
by Whiter Mage on Jan 23, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
a few days ago someone on the board made a preposterous statement about moving 17 to Calgary for some super star. (Inteded) absurdity to be sure, but really, we should get used to the fact that Clark is going to the booth more and more this spring. He is a shell of what he once was and no one in the league is going to take him off our hands. So let’s just put that fantasy out of our heads.
by bigonetimer on Jan 23, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL, yeah. When was the last time Caps management came out and said, “We’re going to trade Brian Sutherby,” and then did it. Teams just don’t do that. You move a guy or you don’t, you don’t sit around and chat with Tarik about it.
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I understand how trades work. The fact is Nylander’s name has been mentioned in about 500 press stories, where do you think that info is coming from? McPhee may not publicly say he wants Nylander gone, but in private he may be saying something totally different to Tarik and Corey. And his tepid denials speak volumes. But the point isn’t about Nylander, it’s about the fact that we’ve never seen one word anywhere about the team wanting to move Cark. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Whenever his play is mentioned, Bruce and George strongly defend him.
by b.orr4 on Jan 23, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think that’s as much about Clark as it is about anything else. Say what you want about Nylander, but the (no doubt diminishing) belief around the League is that he can still be a productive NHLer – the problem is his salary and term. If there was a similar belief about Clark, I think you’d see his name bandied about.
And as strongly as you may defend a guy’s play with words, the fact that he’s watching games from the press box speaks louldy and clearly.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you. Tarik had none of those stories. The Chicago and Canadian press did, which speaks volumes about the source of the leaks (or about GMGM’s Machivellian-ness, ha ha)….
by TylerG on Jan 23, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So is Clarkie bought out or traded (or none of the above) in the off-season?
by b.orr4 on Jan 23, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for pointing out Fleischmann’s defensive woes in greater detail. He got a huge increase in time (8 and 28 also), but isn’t doing it as well, and that (along with the injuries) has been one of the reasons the PK has underachieved.
At least IMHO.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 23, 2009 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
PK time specifically.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 23, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Data
JP, where do you get the data for all this?
by renstar on Jan 23, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Would you believe it was handed down to me on Mt. Sinai?
Most of it is at behindthenet.ca (Corsi, +/-60, QualComp), and the rest is either at NHL.com or timeonice.com. Then I mash it up a bit to get what I’m after. The Falconer (who I linked to in the post) deserves a huge h/t for a couple of pointers, too.
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mt. Sinai’s a Hell of a place. I think my gal decided she wanted to stay with me for longer there too.
Football's boring. Get over it.
by Whiter Mage on Jan 23, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think this is a very good point of reference for defensemen. Granted, the better defensemen will be better on this list, but I don’t think it separates the people doing their jobs from the people not doing their jobs in the defensive end. (My flailing attempt to justify Erskine’s apparently low rating.)
Football's boring. Get over it.
by Whiter Mage on Jan 23, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sloan vs Jurcina
Do you read these stats as Sloan is the better choice?
If it ain't broke, don't break it.
by ChrisAm on Jan 23, 2009 5:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sloan’s numbers here are certainly better, aren’t they?
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by J.P. on Jan 23, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I was bored yesterday and watched the highlights of last season’s Flyers series. I was struck by several things (among them but unrelated was what a great powerplay combination it was to have Feds and Ovi on the points, Semin and Backs on the wings, and Laich down low): the number of power plays (especially 5 on 3’s) and how badly Juice moved the puck, the give away in Game 3 being the most egregious. All in all, I always preferred Sloan to Juice, booming shot and all. With Juice being an RFA next season, the Caps should move him if they can get any takers.
And this is not a bad D at all:
Green, Poti and variations of Shultz, Sloan, Erskine, ShaMo and Alzner.
If it ain't broke, don't break it.
by ChrisAm on Jan 24, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On the Fly?
How do these stats relate to shifts that start or end with a change on the fly? That seems like an important (and very difficult to quantify) factor. What percentage of NHL shifts start or end on the fly? It seems like a decent percentage of shifts may not be accounted for in these stats. Also, does the shift that comes up after Ovechkin’s line have an inherent disadvantage? If AO’s shift ends in the offensive zone, as it frequently does, then the next shift cannot possibly have a positive Sft/M number because the only way for them to go is backwards. Am I missing something in the stats?
by Fehr and Balanced on Jan 24, 2009 5:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, those shifts are unaccounted for, but the theory is that they roughly even out – for every shift you start with a faceoff and leave on the fly, there’s one you start on the fly that ends with a whistle. Obviously, it’s a significant assumption and I’m not sure the data exists to test it.
As for the second question, I had a similar thought when I first had at these numbers, but here’s why it’s not a problem – the data isn’t based on actual zone shifts. Say AO is on for an offensive zone draw, and the next whistle comes after the other team ices it. AO stays on for the next draw, Backstrom wins the faceoff (hey, this is a hypothetical) and Green takes a shot that deflects up over the net. Backstrom loses the next faceoff, puck goes the other way and Jose freezes it and AO leaves the ice.
If we were counting the actual zone shift, AO would be -1 here b/c he started in the O-zone and ended in the D-zone. But that’s not what’s counted – AO ends up +1 in this scenario because there were two offensive zone draws and one defensive zone draw. So no one is really advantaged or disadvantaged by taking a high percentage of their draws in one zone or the other.
Does that make sense?
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by J.P. on Jan 25, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice name, btw
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by J.P. on Jan 25, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That makes sense, thanks for the clarification. You must have spent your whole long weekend crunching those numbers.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jan 25, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
|
Atlanta
|
12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
|
Florida
|
14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
|
Carolina
|
15 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
(updated 11.7.2009 at 9:10 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
