Pick 'Em (Now With 20/20 Hindsight!): Mo Or Emmy
by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 10:14 AM EST
in Pick 'Ems
52 comments
I think it's fair to say that when the Caps traded Steve Eminger to the Philadelphia Flyers at last year's draft and subsequently used the pick acquired in the deal to snag John Carlson, it was hailed as a good (and potentially great) move by GMGM.
I think it's also fair to say that when an arbitrator awarded Shaone Morrisonn a one-year, $1.9 million contract later in the summer, many folks were surprised (and outside of Mo and his agent, not pleasantly so).
Since then, Emmy has been traded again (to Tampa Basement) and Mo has played a bit below expectations (though he has bounced around from blueline partner to partner, and playing with Mike Green and Sean Collins are two vastly different experiences).
The question, then, is knowing what you know now, who would you rather have right now - Mo or Emmy?
Here are some numbers:
And some more:
And perhaps the most important number of all:
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Emmy. Had him then (as JP knows), had him a year before then, and would still take him now.
The reason for the Emmy regression was Hanlonian bungling. Hanlon didn’t play the kid and when he did he just destroyed his confidence. PHL bailed out GMGM/Hanlon because it saw how Emmy played against them in the playoffs.
Which brings me to: When Emmy played for Bruce late in the year, he was a legit top-four guy.
Plus that extra $700K almost gets you Alzner. And I bet 26 could have been moved for the same pick. I mean, 26 is more highly-regarded (or was) than 44 was.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure that last point is a safe assumption – Philly was likely looking for a guy who could move the puck a bit, something Mo never has been able to do.
If it’s Mo and Carlson versus Emmy, do you change your pick?
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that changes things
Mo + Carlson > Emminger
by ns on Jan 22, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Mo + Carlson is preventing you from having Alzner here this season in a way that Eminger wouldn’t.
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but you can trade Mo for nothing and still come out on top. Eminger + Alzner < Carlson + Alzner + any possible return for Mo.
by brs03 on Jan 22, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Caps could trade Mo for nothing so they could keep Alzner here, why haven’t they done so already? I think Mo is better than you’re giving him credit for.
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he’s worth more than nothing, don’t get me wrong. I think he’s way overpaid (as this post points out) and it seems like he’s been woefully ineffective except when his minutes have been managed severely. He has looked decent lately, but I still can’t forgive him for stinking up the join earlier in the season. I think he’s gone either by the deadline (GMGM may be trying to swing a larger deal or have something specific in mind that isn’t moving yet) or at the draft (a la Eminger), I can’t see him being signed again after the arbitration this summer.
When I said “trade him for nothing and come out on top” I merely meant it as “Carlson is more valuable here than Mo or Eminger,” basically. Obviously he doesn’t have an impact on the team this season but he’s just too much of a stud to overlook otherwise.
by brs03 on Jan 22, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the real reason is that they’re waiting either for Mo to show he should stay on the team through the playoffs or the trade deadline. I could see him moving at the deadline for some kind of pick/prospect or in a package deal. However, if there are still injuries to the blueline or if Mo plays well, I think they’ll keep him around for the playoff run, even knowing he’s likely gone as a FA (UFA? RFA?).
by grapejoos on Jan 22, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No...
My understanding of the Capitals’ cap situation is that the $700,000 isn’t anywhere near enough to keep Alzner on the NHL squad. We’re talking more than $1 million of needed cap space, which is why guys like Poti and Fedorov have to go on LTIR to get him up here.
Plus, Eminger’s an offensive defense with Tampa, not a shutdown guy. He’s Green without the oodles of offensive. He wouldn’t be an improvement over Morrisonn’s defensive play.
by Forsch31 on Jan 23, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Emmy – absolutely. He has more upside and is playing on par if not better than Mo.
by ns on Jan 22, 2009 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Eminger, all things being equal, but I’m happy to take the draft pick. If you present it as Eminger vs. Mo + Carlson/1st round pick, then it’s not as much of a slam dunk.
I liked Eminger, but thankfully he was not needed long-term, nor does Mo appear to be.
by grapejoos on Jan 22, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well, it’s the whole package – if you have Emmy now, you don’t have Carlson.
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t buy that. The Caps had other chips to move for a No. 1. Including 26.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Philly wanted Emmy specifically, though, due to his play in the playoffs (or so it sounded). I suppose there are other teams that might have had enough interest to make a similar deal with Mo, though.
by brs03 on Jan 22, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There’s no option for “neither.”
But seriously, Mo at the time and neither now. Emmy is likely only doing well because there’s nobody good on Tampa (the Pettinger effect). He was terrible in Philly for the most part. Carlson is potentially already the best of the three, or at least will be soon.
If there was any chance the Caps could have gotten this type of production/play from Eminger then maybe it would have been worth keeping him (although not at the cost of Carlson) but we all know that would likely never have happened.
Also, don’t forget, Mo was almost a top-pairing guy for us last season. His fall has been abrupt and spectacular. Mo from June >>>>>> Eminger > Mo right now (all things considered), but Carlson >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> all.
Again, though, “neither” may be the best bet all things considered.
by brs03 on Jan 22, 2009 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’d rather have Eminger 1:1, but I’d take Mo with Carlson in a heartbeat over just Eminger.
by OvechkinLaichsSemin on Jan 22, 2009 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think of Eminger in much the same way as I do Chris Clark back in the bad days; an average player who was given the opportunity to play a much more offensive role due to the lack of talent at his position. Mo has the job of being a defensive defenseman on a team that often thinks of defense as a dirty word. That’s not Eminger’s strength and the last thing the Caps need is a mini-Green. So the short answer is, yeah, I’ll take Mo over Eminger. He fits the needs of this team a lot better than Steve. And when you throw in Carlson, it’s a no-brainer.
by b.orr4 on Jan 22, 2009 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
surprised at all the Emmy love
Mo is a better defender (despite the +/-), and that’s where we are weakest on this team. Forget about the fact that Carlson is going to better than both of them for a moment—GMGM made the absolutely right move at the draft:
Also, I wonder if Emmy’s a bit of a headcase—3 teams in 6 mo?
by bigonetimer on Jan 22, 2009 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Emmy is a plus-three in TBL? Wow. That’s notable.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+3 in Tampa, even in Philly
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SE44 should never have been traded, but
I wasn’t happy about Eminger being traded at the time but we did get something good in return. Steve made some great passes to AO for goals. I watched him against Buffalo last night and was wishing he was still a Cap.
by hotdog88gt on Jan 22, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
can I call shenanigans on the incessant Player Initials/number references? no offense to you in particular, hotdog. :-)
by macvechkin on Jan 22, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn’t Emmy just have a lot of points in Tampa because of that notable 2 minutes of PP time a night.
Mo is better than Eminger. I think we’ve proved that every time we’ve played against him this season.
by zephyr on Jan 22, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’m a Caps fan so I’m part of the team.
You can go nitpick somewhere else.
by zephyr on Jan 22, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fine, but how have the Caps proved that Mo is better than Emmy in the two games the two teams have played? I mean, TBL plays other games, and it’s not like it’s just Mo vs. Emmy.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The most important stat
He only played 20 games in the regular season in 07-08.
Healthy scratch under 2 coaches, there must have been a reason.
Regardless of how Eminger has played this year, he had no future in Washington. Great trade by GMGM.
by toymechanic on Jan 22, 2009 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. If it had just been Hanlon who sat him, I might have been on Eminger’s side. But when it’s Bruce who’s sitting him, a guy who gives everyone a chance, there’s got to be a reason.
by b.orr4 on Jan 22, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I disagree with the underlying point, but while Bruce was still getting his NHL legs about him, it seemed he was taking some lineup cues from above and not necessarily based on merit (cough riding Olie *cough*). In fact, if I recall correctly, he referred questions as to why Emmy wasn’t playing to GMGM at least once.
And he had no problem going to Emmy in the playoffs over, say, Lepisto.
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eminger had a nice series against the Flyers, but the body of work suggests to me that he’s a second or (more likely, with a top team) third pair type.
I think Bruce has shown he’ll ride the hot hand and he doesn’t let contract or tenure or status influence his decisions game to game. He runs on merit, and Emmy did well in PHI so he played. GMGM sold him high to said team in the following weeks We pick up a really great prospect. End of story, no?
by bigonetimer on Jan 22, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
precisely
it was a great trade because the fit was not right; it’s not so much an indictment of the player, imo. In five years it says here we’ll be shaking our heads in amazement that the Carlson draft pick was swapped for Emmy.
by bigonetimer on Jan 22, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Morrisonn. He’s a better player in his own end, adds some toughness, grit, normally solid on the PK. WIll never be the top defenseman, never be the stopper on the defense either (although he has been called upon to be that, he doesn’t have to with Alzner in the line up).
Yeah, Mo had some rough times earlier this year, but he had some injuries earlier and probably had to get back into the line up sooner than expected due to the slew of other injuries the Caps had on the back line this year. (At one point, the Caps had Poti, Pothier, Erskine, Green, Schultz and Sloan all out with injuries at the same time, a complete, NHL-capable defensive corps.) I think this time off during the break will benefit him a lot and he’ll be coming back stronger than ever.
As for Eminger…he’s probably a little better offensively than Morrisonn, but that’s not saying much and on a team that has Green, Poti and Pothier (admittedly not right now…) Eminger’s offense isn’t needed. Mo’s defensively is much better, and certainly he is a better player than Eminger.
by MikeL-Caps on Jan 22, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
“Certainly a better player than Eminger?” I realize that stats for D-men don’t tell the whole story, but statistically they’re near-identical. And that +3 on a bad, bad TBL team is noteworthy.
Besides, watching CI… Emmy looks solid.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To which I add the note that thanks to TV’s obsession with zooming in on the puck it can be hard to tell how well D are playing/positioned 5-on-5.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of these days, I’m going to have the money to start the “Wide Angle Camera Sports Network.”
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
by marky narc on Jan 22, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why – did we trade for Keith Tkachuk? :)
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by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or Dustin Byfuglien? Dude’s a load.
(one can only wish for a CHI trade now)
by bigonetimer on Jan 22, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BA DUM TSHHHHH!
But seriously – it would be great to see plays develop on the ice. I think both serious and casual fans would appreciate it. Even though I’m not a fan, this is something baseball would probably benefit from as well.
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
by marky narc on Jan 22, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fods as we are of numbers, this is a case when they might not tell the relevant parts of the story. I’d rather have Eminger’s numbers than Morrisonn’s, but I don’t think it is likely that Eminger would have had those numbers here. Sometimes, a guy just as to move on, as much for the team he leaves as for himself. Whatever the reasons, the team soured on him, and it looked as if Eminger wanted a new start (whatever his pronouncements on the matter). The wild card is Carlson, but the Caps could have taken him at 21 (which would have been high, in retrospect, given who was selected after this pick), kept Eminger (not trading the 27th pick), but then not picking Anton Gustafsson. So, is having Gustafsson worth not having Eminger?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jan 22, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think the take-Carlson-at-a-different-spot point is a good one. The team could even have traded down if it had wanted to (if he had been Priority No. 1, which we don’t know)
I still, STILL wish we knew the whole GMGM/etc. vs. Emmy story. I thought TEB said he was going to get it, but he never did.
by TylerG on Jan 22, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seconded
I also am still waiting for someone to tell the story of why SE was in GMGM’s and/or GH’s doghouse. But it’s probably something we’ll just have to deal with not knowing.
by Scott in Shaw on Jan 22, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, is having Gustafsson worth not having Eminger?
in a word, yes. Caps got great value from PHI in a low number 1 (and I don’t care if Ems himself was a first rounder; he pans out as a lower round talent) . The rub is, it should have been Jordan Eberle we took, not Baby Gus…Carlson is going to look very good in an NHL uny in about two years. Notwithstanding the non-selection of Eberle, I think this transaction will go down as one of GMGM’s more solid moves.
by bigonetimer on Jan 22, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Peerless
having the flu seems to have really messed up my typing…how else would “fond” come out as :“fods?”
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jan 22, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was some high-falutin’ term with which I was not familiar.
“Fods as we are of Peerless’s work…”
Sounds pretty good, no?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jan 22, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Emmy got a bit of a raw deal his last season in Washington, particularly at a time when Sarge could have been playing in Hershey and could be sent back and forth with no fear of losing him on waivers. I feel that Mo and Emmy are pretty comparable players, both offensively and defensively. Lumpy beat me to it, but Carlson definitely is the wild card in this equation – he’s looking good at this early stage, but time will tell if he pans out.
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
by marky narc on Jan 22, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also thought he got a raw deal last year and was glad for his sake that he was going somewhere that would play him. I still want to know what was going on since call-ups got in the line-up ahead of him last year.
by NovaCath on Jan 22, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We already had Poti and Green, and Emmy is billed as more of a puck mover, so did we really need him? Especially with Alzner ready to play, but being held back by the salary cap? I think in 2 years the deal will look like a no brainer.
It’s a shame that Mo was awarded so much, but it is what it is. With Poti replacing Alzner, the team isn’t getting significantly worse and come playoff time when the Salary Cap is no longer an issue the team should be in pretty good position.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 22, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don’t like Eminger at all. There was a reason, in my opinion, he was not playing last year.
A factor to consider about Emmy, though, vs. Morrisonn, is minutes.
Eminger average time on ice is at 21:26. He also is getting power play time.
Mo’s getting 17:45, and significantly less power play time, and not playing with St. Louis, Lecavalier, or Richards very often (Furthermore, he’s not really on the ice with our scorers either).
They do different jobs on the ice, and I’d personally rather have neither with our current roster. I don’t think either really fits the squad anymore.
Football's boring. Get over it.
by Whiter Mage on Jan 22, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Did I say Richards? I meant Prospal.
Football's boring. Get over it.
by Whiter Mage on Jan 22, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and good riddance, too. for my money, Richards was TB’s scariest player
by bigonetimer on Jan 22, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
|
Atlanta
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
|
Florida
|
20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 20 |
|
Carolina
|
21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 8:36 AM EST)
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