Semin for Bouwmeester?
I don't think GMGM would do this, but I probably would if I could sign Bouwmeester to an extension before completing the deal.
about 1 year ago
maruk
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Very interesting link – thanks for posting it.
As for the trade… I think I’d pass. I don’t want to have to face Semin six times a year, and I think JayBo is a wee bit overrated.
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Though the emergence of Flash makes this more plausible than it would have been two months ago.
I think I could be persuaded to change my mind on this.
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and rec’d.
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 9:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It’s a risk to be sure, but I think it’s one worth taking. I could be overvaluing JB, but I think he’s far closer to a #1 D-man than anyone the Caps have right now. Alzner could get there, but he still needs experience. Carlson or Finley maybe one day, but not for a few years. Green will obviously never be a defensive stalwart but that’s not what he’s paid for. You add JB to the very young mix and you’ve got a Cup caliber D for years to come.
And given Semin’s history, it’s far more likely the Caps would only face him three or four times a year. Maybe I’m undervaluing him, but I don’t think his rabbit-ness will ever go away.
"Where there is beer, there is hope." - me
by maruk on Jan 15, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good points, all (though I think the amount of Finley love I see around CapsNation – not necessarily in this comment, though – is a bit unwarranted so far).
Heading into the playoffs with JayBo, Poti, Green, Alzner, Mo, Schultz and Ersky would be nice, even if it made the Caps a bit more one-dimensional offensively.
Semin, Juice (ewww) <→ JayBo.
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
GMJM would have to consider it, if at least for a moment.
The Caps would be even more frighteningly scary-good, with J-Bo.
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by Donny Rivette on Jan 15, 2009 9:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
What are your thoughts on what it’s going to take to land J-Bo AND what he’s looking for per year on his new contract, Whale?
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve just about blown every circuit in my head trying to make some sense – common or otherwise – as to what’s going to happen, cuz there’ve been some convincing arguments made recently to hold on to him.
My guess? I think he leaves ALMOST no matter what. Market value is going to be $7.5M bones; GM JM may be allowed to quietly offer up to 8.5…so much for a hometown discount, but the deal’s gonna have to be in the 8-, 9- or-more year range.
He really is that good.
What we get in return if he’s dealt by D-day? Tough call, since the situation can be seen from a variety of different perspectives. A sign-and-trade would get FLA a much better return, obviously since the receiving club has Jay locked down, thereby raising his value.
As for the calibre of players coming to Sunrise? Got me, bro. I’ve heard everything from Heatley to Semin to Malkin to Staal to Dual Sedin Action, and a dozen in between.
We’re getting antsy down here: What happens come the end of February if the Cats are in seventh or eighth with a four-point lead over the next club below them? Risk breaking up what works? The simple fact is this: The Florida Panthers MUST make the postseason. At just about any and all cost.
Martin’s in a tough spot…gonna let someone down no matter how he plays this.
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by Donny Rivette on Jan 16, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It seemed like Semin’s developing his game rather nicely this year. Flash’s emergence aside, something tells me there’s still more upside to Semin. Take the rabbit-ness and keep 8 happy.
/wishes he knew what the cap number would be…
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 15, 2009 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Flash could get on a hot streak (which he’s already 2 games deep) — maybe by the trade deadline he’ll be around 25 goals and we can trade him and someone else (a pick maybe).
But giving up Semin would be too much.
by vt caps fan on Jan 15, 2009 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that. If Bouwmeester inked a long-term extension, that might be one thing, but weren’t we all a little antsy about shelling out big bucks for Semin? Bouwmeester would cause a similar problem.
I think we’re better with Semin, but man the Caps would have a sick D corps if they made a deal like that.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Fleischmann has 25 goals at the trade deadline you have to keep him. That’s great production for ~750k a year.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I second that. And I don’t want to say it too loud, but with the Flash extension, McPhee is looking like a genius. Erskine is starting to show me what McPhee saw in him, too (as JP mentioned, great to see him fresh out there).
I can’t believe this is the same GMGM as 10 years ago.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I can’t believe this is the same GMGM as 10 years ago.
I hear you. That’s part of the reason I’ve liked the idea of keeping McPhee around the last few years. He made some mistakes early in his career (although I think some of them were at least in part due to Leonsis’s over-involvement) but he’s been getting better and better and it never made sense to me when people wanted to ditch him for stuff he did ten years ago. It’s not about punishment for those mistakes, it’s about getting the best man for the job.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, those mistakes are history. I’m not sure if he just got lucky/hot or if he actually figured this thing out, but I think his job security should be pretty ironclad at this point. He was given a relatively small window with high draft picks to improve the team and he did an outstanding job (hitting the proverbial jackpot with Ovie doesn’t hurt).
Now comes the hard part – keeping the band together – but apart from Nylander’s contract, I like what he’s done there too and the chances of keeping this core together a few more years.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely not.
We’re set with young DMen (Alzner, Green, eventually Carlson), and I would in NO WAY give up someone with Semin’s abilities for a half year of upcoming UFA Bouwmeester (who would have to have the DUMBEST agent in the world to sign a deal without testing the market).
Plus, Semin is an RFA after next year. Even if someone signs him away then, we’ll still get compensation that’s a hell of a lot better than Bouwmeester.
And why is everyone talking about Florida dealing everything away? Doesn’t anyone else realize they are right in the thick of the playoff race?
by YvonLabresMoustache on Jan 15, 2009 10:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
And why is everyone talking about Florida dealing everything away? Doesn’t anyone else realize they are right in the thick of the playoff race?
I can’t attest to any other moves, but I think there are rumors surrounding Bouwmeester because he’s so good and the odds of him coming back to the Panthers are just about zero.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There are also grumblings about the Panthers’ financial health, which plays into the 0% chance that they re-sign him. Not trading him, even if guaranteed a playoff spot, would be a bad long-term move.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not directed to anyone in particular, but on this subject...
…I have yet to see anything legitimate as to Florida being in poor financial health; it’s all been baseless speculation: “Phoenix is bottoming out, Tampa’s got money issues, so non-hockey-market Florida must be in dire straits as well. Let’s move ’em! Better yet, sell off the gold nuggets, then move ’em!”
I have yet to see any indication from owner Alan Cohen that he’ll be stripping the on-ice hockey operation.
If Bouwmeester is dealt and Craig Anderson AND David Booth aren’t re-signed, then we’ll talk.
In a nutshell, this is what being a Panther fan is like. Ca-ra-zee.
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by Donny Rivette on Jan 16, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And laying off...
…several staff members while cutting back on Federal Express usage doesn’t spell doom for the club.
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by Donny Rivette on Jan 16, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everything I’ve heard is rumor on Florida’s financial health, so you may be correct. It’s hearsay.
by grapejoos on Jan 16, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And we would get GREAT compensation of RFA Semin walked and was signed by someone else.
That’s the key when it comes to thinking about Semin trades. If we lose him as a free agent, it won’t be for nothing.
by grapejoos on Jan 16, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta disagree, YLM.
No one’s talking about a firesale in Florida, but JBo can and probably will walk. And why wouldn’t he sign an extension with a bona fide Cup contender for years to come? He hasn’t sniffed the playoffs yet and who knows what will happen this year.
With that D in front of Varlamov in a couple years, Semin becomes less and less of a necessity. And there are forwards on the farm, too.
"Where there is beer, there is hope." - me
by maruk on Jan 15, 2009 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
No one’s talking about a firesale in Florida, but JBo can and probably will walk. And why wouldn’t he sign an extension with a bona fide Cup contender for years to come?
Because we’re living in a world where Mike Commodore makes $3.75 million a year, Jeff Finger makes $3.5 million a year, Brooks Orpik mades $3.75 million a year, and Mike Green makes $5.25 million a year on a RFA contract and Bouwmeester’s never been a free agent.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair points, but.....
there’s also economic reality. The cap isn’t likely to grow and may go down. A lot of teams aren’t going to have money.
"Where there is beer, there is hope." - me
by maruk on Jan 15, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s true, but if you’re Bouwmeester all you need is one crazy/desperate/stupid GM out there to decide you’re the future of his franchise and lavish you with a crazy contract.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed.
Thankfully, John Ferguson is no longer running the Leafs.
"Where there is beer, there is hope." - me
by maruk on Jan 15, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why him coming here would be nice, but another sacrifice would have to be made.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 15, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There’s no reason that he wouldn’t walk away from here too at the end of the season, which is the crux of my argument.
I would NEVER give up 2 years and RFA Semin for a third of a year of UFA Bouwmeester.
If Bouwmeester was going to be an RFA after this year, I would think about it, but he’ll walk clean, and Semin is too much to give up for that.
And we would get GREAT compensation of RFA Semin walked and was signed by someone else.
by YvonLabresMoustache on Jan 16, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Summer?
Can we sign him as a free agent no matter where he ends up (if he’s traded at the deadline)? If Feds retires and we say good-bye to some others (Johnny, ShaMo, Koz, Brash, etc.), we might have the room to sign another high-priced D-Man.
by Scott in Shaw on Jan 15, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think the problem is that the room you’re speaking of is something of an illusion. Backstrom will get a big pay raise. I think the team should try to keep Kozlov. Semin’s contract is coming (though he’s already making a lot, so that won’t jump too much). Flash will be in the last year of his deal.
I think it’s also important to avoid tying up 75%+ of the team’s cap with 4 players, which is my biggest objection to trading for/signing Boumeester or giving Semin a long-term deal.
The Caps will have some room to play with, but Bouwmeester is going to get a Campbell/Boyle-level offer. I don’t know what Toronto’s cap situation is like, but I expect them to go after him hard. If the Caps do, that’d be a bonus. If they were going to pay big bucks to anyone, I want Erik Cole.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, yes, yes. Cole would be perfect, either to play on the right wing with Ovechkin and have a great power forward line or to compliment Ovechkin on the second unit – he’s a great skater, can score some, can hit – a poor man’s Ovechkin.
I think the question is going to be whether the team can move Nylander. If so, Cole probably comes in at a lower cap hit than $4.875, so it’s no problem for the Capitals.
Longer term, Theodore comes off the books after next year which will be another 4.5 million of cap space.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t like Cole. I mean, I used to love Cole. But he’s not the same player. He was shying away from contact the other night in a big way and he can’t stay healthy.
I love the idea of Cole, but am not sold on his ability to play his game any more.
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been following Cole’s career (an uncle of mine taught him in high school and when a kid from Oswego, New York gets drafted it’s a big deal up there) and I can’t say I disagree. But he’s still big, still a great skater, and his 75 hits lead Oilers forwards and would be second on the Capitals. He also have more takeaways than giveaways which is great for a forward (he’s the only Oilers forward with that distinction, for example).
I’d love Cole at the right contract, something like $11.5 million over three years. But I think someone out there might pay him $4.5M+ for four or five years and that’s a contract the Capitals don’t need, even if they do get rid of Nylander.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, he has had some rough injuries. I guess that whole hat trick thing made me forget about his durability issues and damage. I’d want him here for 2-3 years, but nothing long-term and nothing that would preclude the Caps from retaining their core.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it’s also important to avoid tying up 75%+ of the team’s cap with 4 players
Check out Eliotte Friedman on this point. Good post.
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by J.P. on Jan 15, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And a rec for that.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 15, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love how, as a group, GMs are only now learning the lesson Friedman is talking about.
As if the creation of a cap itself did nothing to teach them restraint, but a few years of mistakes under the cap — and the revelation that the cap is not required by manifest destiny to rocket upward each year — finally has.
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by Dominik on Jan 15, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming Florida wanted to rebuild and would take younger players for Jay Bou, would you trade Eric Fehr, ShaMo and a 1st for Jay Bou?
If we did not resign him and we lost those three assets for nothing in return, would it be a disaster?
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 15, 2009 11:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
That depends, does Jay Bou help us win the Cup?
by Scott in Shaw on Jan 15, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I assume since this is hypothetical, salary cap issues are an aside.
I’d do it. Getting Bouwmeester makes Morrisonn expendable and Fehr’s struggling to crack the lineup as is. Mo’s a legit NHL defenseman and Fehr still has potential, but you can’t get something for nothing.
Just for the rest of the year I’d call it at least fair for the Capitals. If that happened and Bouwmeester re-signed it’d be a huge win for the Caps.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Salary Cap would obviously be an issue. Mo + Fehr is still maybe half of JayBou’s cap number. I doubt that would be enough, even with the first rounder, for Florida to go for it. Just thinking outloud, er in type about what MIGHT work for the Caps. I can’t see them parting with Semin, or even Flash for that matter.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 15, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’m not sure Florida would go for it because you’d have to think there’d be someone out there who’d give them more. The thing with Fehr, Mo and a late first rounder is that none of them are sure things as long-term, key players and if you’re giving up a guy like Bouwmeester you want at least one sure thing in return.
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed. How much would you be willing to part with for JayBou?
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 15, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I’ll assume no exntension since I don’t think that’d be a great idea for the Caps.
I think one good prospect and one decent prospect. The thing is, I think guys like Osala, Carlson, and Gustaffson are too good to give up but guys like Bouchard and Bourque wouldn’t be enough to pique the Panthers interest. Maybe Bouchard and a first round pick? Bouchard and Neuvirth? Bouchard, Lepisto and a second round pick?
by David M. Getz on Jan 15, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. I think they’d insist on getting Flash and something else good – cheap, young guys. If the Caps had the cap room to seriously consider such a deal, might be worth discussing.
by grapejoos on Jan 15, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the seemingly strong sentiment that a straight JBo for Semin trade would be bad.
JBo is a UFA after this season and Semin is RFA after next season. So at least if we lose Semin in a year and a half, we’ll get something back for him. There just are no guarantees that JBo doesn’t pull a “Hossa” and signs with his favorite team regardless of what we offer. (At least the Pens didn’t give up anything as good as Semin to rent Hossa for 3 months) Even if he’s smart enough to at least get a better deal, we’ve already dealt with a rental who signed a longer/bigger deal with another team at the end of season. At least that time it only cost us Brian Sutherby.
by superjuan on Jan 15, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
absolutely not
you CANNOT trade SEMIN DURING the SEASON.
by macvechkin on Jan 15, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No on trading Semin
Semin is the type of player I usually hate to play against. Lucky for us he is on our side, lets keep it that way.
by RED503 on Jan 15, 2009 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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