Semin's next contract

by wittcap79 on Jan 13, 2009 8:25 AM EST Comment 40 comments

After reading the discussion about Nicky's next deal it became apparent that the Capitals are going to be in a bit of a "cap quandry" after next season. Semin, Backstrom, and Flash all up for Restricted Free Agency and all will be getting rather large contracts if they continue on the same development curve. Semin will make $5M next season and has played only one full season, 06-07, but is averaging 1.4ppg so far this year in 26 games played. How much do you give to an oft injured "potential" superstar? He has also shown a noticable unwillingness/inability to ~~learn~~ give interviews in English and has complained about living in the US, does he go back to Russia?

Poll

Sasha Semin's contract is up after next season. Assuming Nicky gets Mike Green money ($5.25M cap hit), what is Semin going to get?

3.0 - 3.49M

0 votes

3.5 - 3.99M

2 votes

4.0 - 4.49M

8 votes

4.5 - 4.99M

12 votes

5.0 - 5.49M

31 votes

5.5 - 5.99M

26 votes

6.0+M

29 votes

Signs with a KHL team

29 votes

137 votes | Poll has closed

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Comments

I have a slight suspicion he MAY go back to the KHL, but I think he gets another Mike Green contract. I don’t see THAT much of a raise for him until he stays healthy for a full season or 2 and he will still be an RFA so the Caps retain a little leverage (assuming his desire is to stay in the NHL)

by wittcap79 on Jan 13, 2009 8:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is there going to be a KHL to go back to?

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Jan 13, 2009 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 13, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He’s making $4.2 Mil this year and $5.0 Mil next year. There’s no chance he’ll take less than $5 Mil; He’ll probably want a raise.

Joe's Washington Hockey at HockeyAnalysis.com

by jcgillen on Jan 13, 2009 8:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What “unwillingness to learn English” would that be? He communicates quite well with his teammates and it’s clear he knows enough English for that to happen, even if he doesn’t talk to the press.

Also, from some of his interviews it sounds like he wouldn’t enjoy playing in the KHL even if he’d prefer living back home. I’ve always maintained that the KHL is probably a bigger threat than an RFA offer sheet (if he’s going to go through the trouble of changing teams it’ll probably be to move back home) but I don’t think either are as huge a threat as they would be for other players of his talent. I think he’ll be more than happy to stay here as long as he gets paid, and if he can’t stay healthy next season he probably isn’t in line for a huge raise.

I think he ends up with a modest raise to bring him to the 5.3-5.5 area, with Backstrom coming in higher.

by brs03 on Jan 13, 2009 8:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just going off of public perception. I understand he’s just a shy person in general but most Russian-born players of his age and the amount of time spent in the NHL, 4 seasons, can give interviews in English.

by wittcap79 on Jan 13, 2009 9:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And for all we know he can as well.

Saying he has an unwillingness/inability to learn English is a heckuva lot different than saying he has an unwillingness to talk to the local media. There’s no question he speaks English, the only question is how well. Heck, there’s enough evidence to suggest he’s more than fluent, as he’s had appointments before to give full English interviews (he didn’t go through with it, but that’s a comfort/attitude issue, not an ability one). The only thing we DO know otherwise is that he doesn’t like talking to reporters.

by brs03 on Jan 13, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you’re going to argue with me over semantics? You don’t know he can speak English fluently and neither do I. What we do know is he doesn’t/won’t give interviews in English while most Russians of a similar age/experience do. Seriously, when he was at the STH event I didn’t see him actually have an English conversation with anyone the entire time we were in line to meet him, I saw him converse with 2 people, my father-in-law and my wife, in Russian. I’ll edit the post, jeez. (Can we get back to the actual discussion now)

by wittcap79 on Jan 13, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m just saying it’s a difference, and it’s going to factor into his place on the team. He may be quiet with the media, but there’s a big difference between that and being an outsider to the team.

If he’s a guy that still doesn’t speak much/any English and stays isolated from his teammates, he’s probably bolting for Russia.

Since he’s not, since he at least communicates with his teammates and by most accounts does speak English, and since it definitely appears that he’s isolated from the media and not from his teammates, that makes things a lot different. Now he’s not the guy that you expect to bolt from the NHL and go back to Russia because he’s unhappy. He’s still a risk, of course, but it’s not such a dire situation as I think you’re suggesting.

by brs03 on Jan 13, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not suggesting it’s a “dire situation”; just saying its a possibility, that’s all.

by wittcap79 on Jan 13, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to duck the question, but I think it’s hard to guess at his next contract when his current one still has a year-and-a-half left. Who knows where the salary cap might be headed then? Will the Caps still have Nylander’s contract on the books? And if Sasha can’t put together a 60+ game season, how can you back the Brinks truck up for him?

But obviously players of his ilk don’t take paycuts, so we’re likely talking upwards of $5m… whether it’s in D.C. or somewhere else.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 13, 2009 9:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think trading Semin, at the end of the day, is the smartest move. Though there is no doubting his skill, I have serious reservations about his intensity, commitment to the US, ability to stay healthy, grittiness and (quite honestly) his psyche. For me, as good as he is when he is healthy and in the right frame of mind, at 5M+ he is not worth the investment.

What this team needs more of – and fast- is toughness. IMO, this team has all the skill it needs but lacks the physicality necessary to go where it wants to go. So, I think the best move would be trading him and ShaMo (who is gone at the end of the year) to a team looking to dump salary and getting in return a player that has grit, determination, mad skills, intensity, toughness and a great relationship with Ovie. Regrettably, the player who fits this profile perfectly (including salary cap considerations, best I can tell) just got the ‘C’ in Atlanta. But I would still push hard to make that happen. Though I am not a frequent poster, I have argued for this before.

Bottom line, I would sacrifice Semin’s skill and baggage for a tougher, meaner and marginally less skilled player. If not Kovalchuk, then someone else.

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Jan 13, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Careful what you type, ChrisAm…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 13, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I don’t want to get banned (or worse- relegated to Caps Insider) but for all Semin’s highlight goals and no look passes and toe drags, he is easily injured, a bit soft, kind of a head case and disappears on the ice at times. Am I the only one who thinks he often gets bored out there?

I also believe all those who say that he is the most skilled player in the league- but that alone will not get it done in the playoffs. And I know he carried the Caps at the beginning of the year and was fantastic in the playoffs. But I would take Jeff Carter or Getzlaf over Semin, that’s for sure- and not because those players have more skill.

In fact, I am so concerned about the Caps’ lack of toughness that I sometimes (almost) convince myself that the Caps should add a certain arguably psychotic left winger who played for the Caps in 1998, who currently plays in the KHL, lives in Ashburn and is available for the playoffs. But that WILL get me banned so it is better left unspoken.

And I will try to get over my man crush before posting again.

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Jan 13, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was just messin’ with you – you can post whatever opinions you have and not risk bannanation.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 13, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know-just laughing at myself

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Jan 13, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just have to disagree on one count. I don’t think Semin is soft. He’s not very big, he’s not a very physical presence, but over his NHL career he’s shown a willingness to let himself get hit in order to make the play – even to the point where it had fans worried he was going to end up injured because of it.

by DMG on Jan 14, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

love it

by ns on Jan 13, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Semin was our best player in the playoffs last season. How soon we forget.

by Rompy on Jan 13, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Amen to that. He played with more toughness and intensity than I have ever seen out of him, and frankly, more than any of our other top 6 forwards, in the postseason. Maybe next year the team thinks trade if he can’t be resigned, but he is vital for the playoffs this year.

by grapejoos on Jan 13, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Think about why we forget

Injuries, sporadic production, then flashes of greatness. I agree with ChrisAm, I don’t see Semin on this team long term. Someone will pay him 6-7 mil and he’ll leave, or he’ll be traded in anticipation of that happening. And I’m ok with that.

by macvechkin on Jan 13, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sporadic production? You mean, apart from his injuries? By my count, the guy has played in 25 (non-preseason) games since he was so good in the playoffs, and has failed to register a point 4 times. Those 4 games? 2 shutouts, a 2-1 loss, and a 3-0 win.

He drives me nuts on the power play sometimes, but there is probably no other player in the league who has been LESS sporadic in production this year, at least by a statistical measure.

I’m not sure I see him here long-term either, but the reasons are 100% financial.

by grapejoos on Jan 13, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

injuries, ergo, sporadic production.

and yes, the reasons are 100% financial. you can’t pay $6-7 mil per season to a guy whose body might not hold up.

by macvechkin on Jan 13, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What? Why not? That’s crazy talk – if a guy has talent, he should be paid no matter how durable he is.

Signed,

M. Gaborik

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 13, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think this comment is a fake…

I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.

by marky narc on Jan 13, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

twas in jest, marky…I think JP was referring to Gaborik’s quandary of being a UFA and coming off hip surgery

by bigonetimer on Jan 14, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s precisely that reason that there’s probably hope of getting him locked up (albeit not long-term) for a minimal increase over what he already makes.

by brs03 on Jan 13, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I see; did not get that the latter 2 were symptoms of the injuries in your take. Fair enough. I’d simply be concerned at the combined total commitments to Ovie, Backstrom, Green, and Semin – don’t want to repeat the mistakes of Ottawa and TB, regardless of being injury prone (and I think Semin ranks behind the other 3 in long-term importance).

All of that said, no need to talk trade involving Semin until next season, IMO.

by grapejoos on Jan 13, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not sure I disagree with this (putting aside that Semin was easily our toughest and most passionate “skill” forward in the postseason last year, IMO), but I think it should be in the form of an offseason FA contract offer to Erik Cole, who would meet all of those criteria. I don’t know that he and Ovie would be great off the bat, but I think they have to respect each other.

by grapejoos on Jan 13, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I happen to agree that this is the likeliest path for us to free up the cash we need down the road, and land us some more blue chip talent in the immediate term.

by bigonetimer on Jan 14, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, I think getting Nyls contract off the books will have ALOT to do with it. I’m also assuming the salary cap will remain fairly constant and not go up ~$5M a season or whatever it did this year.

by wittcap79 on Jan 13, 2009 9:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Federov is 99.9% sure he's retiring after this year

That frees up $4M.

There is also talk that Brashear may opt to hang it up and move back to Canada with his girlfriend. That’s another $1.25.

So right there is 5.25M to play with.

The question is what happens to Kozlov and his $2.5M contract that expires at the end of this season?

by Wisper on Jan 13, 2009 11:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

GMGM is going to be a busy man this trade deadline and offseason

the waiting is killer. i can see Semin being dealt for some picks or immediate help. who here thinks Ovi will be consulted with this decision?

by ns on Jan 13, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And what about ShaMo?

He is gone at the end of the year, the Caps have sufficient defensemen right now, and I think the Caps can get more in return by trading ShaMO now than by receiving 1st and 3rd round draft picks as compensation after he signs with another team.

Conversely, ShaMO is an ideal pickup for a financially struggling team precisely because his salary can be shed at the end of the year and he comes with draft pick compensation.

Which teams fall into the financially struggling category? PHX, TB, FLA, ATL; maybe BUF, CLB, NAS. Of those teams, most if not all have players who would improve the Caps. If trading Semin and ShaMo gets the Caps one of those players, I say do it.

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Jan 13, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I read something earlier that essentially said there has been zippy interest in Morrisonn so far. That could change, but I wouldn’t count on him moving, especially not for anything of value.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 13, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meant to add

. . . if Semin demands more than $5M a year.

If it ain't broke, don't break it.

by ChrisAm on Jan 13, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IMO, it would be an enormous mistake to trade Semin before the playoffs this year. The team absolutely needs him for a deep playoff push and he is still signed through next year. As for all the talk about his being injury prone, if he is healthy in the playoffs (as he was last year), it’s of secondary importance. The guy produces when he is healthy, and this season much moreso than ever before.

If the contract is looking like an issue this time next year, then it’s time to talk trade. Sure, we will get less back when he is a pending RFA, but a real chance to win the cup this year is worth a lot. Trading Semin is guaranteed to hurt those chances.

by grapejoos on Jan 13, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think if a trade is done, it’s over the summer. otherwise we’re riding it out to RFA.

definitely not this year!

by macvechkin on Jan 13, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Semin Dilemma

IMO, this year’s probable playoffs should help gauge Semin’s future place on this team by mainly answering the following question:

Would you rather have a player that excels in the regular season but disappears in the playoffs? (larger margin for error in regular season , given the 82 game schedule)

A player that is streaky (motivation, discipline, and/or point-wise) in the regular season but excels in the playoffs? (small margin for error in playoffs, given the tenacious play and low # of games) Semin has shown one series worth of excellent play vs PHI and was easily one of the MVP’s for the Caps.

This question, however, does not take into account durability…

just rambling here.

by ns on Jan 14, 2009 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If it came down to trading Kozlov or Semin, right now, I’d say Koz. Love his game, but I don’t think I’m ready to wait for him this year in the playoffs

by bigonetimer on Jan 14, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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